Didn't everyone agree last time the Lib Dems would be 20+?
I recall one punter here had a "brave" bet of Lib Dems 10-19 that failed unexpectedly by being too 'optimistic' for them rather than too pessimistic as expected.
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
But, but - what about Bootle?
I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.
Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.
Which would be funnier, a majority of
Exactly Dave Dave+1 Dave -1
All of the above.
I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...
Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?
Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.
Been told by an acquaintance that it'll be around 3am before most of the Tory targets will be declared in Scotland - we should have an overall picture by then though, right?
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
Actually, I think we will win Wakefield but it will be against trend and it will be down to local factors, both demographic and political.
David - hope you are right re Wakefield even though I like Mary Creagh
Hope you are wrong re the rest of it (as I am sure you hope too)
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
But, but - what about Bootle?
I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.
Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.
Which would be funnier, a majority of
Exactly Dave Dave+1 Dave -1
All of the above.
I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...
Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?
Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.
I have two friends in Barrow who are long-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
Ultimately it is the judges not the EC that decides, and the law can't be changed retrospectively. And, if the Supreme Court eventually found against the Conservatives, would we not face a rerun of the general election in every marginal constituency up and down the country?
Very unlikely that a party or any individuals would get into trouble for following Electoral Commission guidelines, even if the court decides the guidelines were wrong.
Indeed isn't the law that the candidate must have knowingly made false representations? Following Electoral Commission guidelines can't be knowingly false.
I had a big chuckle when I saw that YouGov poll! They've raised the white flag and finally admitted that they were wrong all along. I'm happy with the Tory 102 majority prediction made on here last night seat by seat. Part of me was thinking during the day that it might be more eg the visit to Nottingham South, but visits to Southampton Test and Stoke South make me think I have it about right. Less than 23 hours to find out!
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
Well in that they agree with Woodcock entirely, that didn't sway them?
c) they have picked up on a massive late swing against Corbyn
d) a combo of the above.
I'll take c) for three points, Bob.
The Manchester bomb on the 22nd produced a spike in the lead that lasted by about three days. Coincidentally, there was a four-day gap in the turnout model polls (22-26) so they didn't catch it. The self-reported LTV polls *did* catch it but since they were running lower, it wasn't obvious
The London attack and swingback has produced a similar spike, which the polls have now caught up on, regardless of mode.
I'm working late tonight so will not be able to correspond further til around 2am.
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
But, but - what about Bootle?
I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.
Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.
Which would be funnier, a majority of
Exactly Dave Dave+1 Dave -1
All of the above.
I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...
Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?
Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.
Hmm maybe not very positive overall for the Tories. They will do much better in the North of England, but broadly neutral or going backwards elsewhere. Bear in mind ComRes is the polling company that rates the Conservatives highest.
Having just done a back of an envelope calculation those regional Comres swings would give an overall Tory majority of 80, ICM is actually slightly better for the Tories than Comres
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
But, but - what about Bootle?
I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.
Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.
Which would be funnier, a majority of
Exactly Dave Dave+1 Dave -1
All of the above.
I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...
Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?
Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.
Cheers...just spat tea all over my laptop
Providing you've been following my tips, Mrs May's results should more than cover a new one
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
I can't comment on whiskies, i'm a teetotaller so it will be water, cups of tea and maybe some Coke Zero or Pepsi Max tomorrow night for me lol.
But I have the snacks ready, will be watching the TV, checking this place throughout the night both on laptop and then on phone when my battery goes lol and I have also printed of AndyJS's brilliant spreadsheet
I have pretty much everything set, i'm slightly nervous only because of recent shock results at elections but quietly confident that May will remain PM just not clear how big the margin will be. Thinking something like by a 50-80 majority right now.
I can't comment on whiskies, i'm a teetotaller so it will be water, cups of tea and maybe some Coke Zero or Pepsi Max tomorrow night for me lol.
But I have the snacks ready, will be watching the TV, checking this place throughout the night both on laptop and then on phone when my battery goes lol and I have also printed of AndyJS's brilliant spreadsheet
I have pretty much everything set, i'm slightly nervous only because of recent shock results at elections but quietly confident that May will remain PM just not clear how big the margin will be. Thinking something like by a 50-80 majority right now.
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
But, but - what about Bootle?
I stick to my prediction of a 1979-type result, if you add SNP to Labour.
Part of me wonders if the voters might deliver some poetic justice, and return May with an almost identical majority to Dave in GE2015.
Which would be funnier, a majority of
Exactly Dave Dave+1 Dave -1
All of the above.
I'd have to take back about 500 posts about her superior electoral appeal...
Chortle.....and the bit about Francis Maude from earlier please?
Massive fan of him. Also Lord Maude just sounds immense.
Cheers...just spat tea all over my laptop
Isn't that a Happy Mondays song?
Sounds like it should be half man half biscuit....
David Herdson (who I regard as a top level poster on here) is concerned we (CON) won't win Wakefield.
He is correct in this analysis. We won't win Wakefield. But that was always the case. We were never going to win a seat that LAB has held since 1931. But that doesn't justify a projection that we will get 325 max.
JackW and JohnO are top level analysts here. They have both projected a CON maj 100. But that won't happen because again it is dependent on CON winning lots of seats which we haven't won since 1931. That won't happen.
BUT we are 10% clear. We may struggle in London and South although I am feeling more comfortable now. We will do ok in Midlands and North eg will win Wolverhampton SW, Barrow, Chester maybe Copeland. We will also win at least 10 seats in Scotland.
Ave it has always projected a 10% lead and around a 40 maj - it might be slightly better than that.
On Wakefield, I don't think that's an accurate reflection of DH's post. What he said was:
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
Winning Wakefield and losing seats (net) would take some doing.
Perhaps, but there are particular circumstances in that seat which means the swing there is unlikely to mirror the country as a whole.
Yes I know Wakefield is a bit special however there are loads of seats with UKIP voters who will move Conservative. So I think it unlikely that many seats will be lost. I do see at least as many gains as losses so I will stick with a 70 to 100 majority.
It's not just the fact there are lots of kippers in that seat. It's also because Creagh was one of only 9 MPs who represent leave constituencies but who voted against the article 50 bill.
Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight. Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.
Very interesting.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
I am a lover of the Laphroaig and have been for many, many years. But it is not a Whisky suitable for drinking on all occasions. Late in the evening, after a good meal, it is hard to beat or late on a cold winter's afternoon after a day in the open air. It is not, in my view, an all day whisky; I would not, for example, fill my flask with it when going out for a morning on the local shoot (the Grouse is good enough for those sort of events).
I don't hold with putting water in it either. A separate glass of still mineral water and take them in alternate sips seems the best way to of drinking a fine whisky to me.
I picked up a £25 bottle of Talisker Skye tonight with £7 knocked off it for tomorrow night. I promptly gave £2 of it back when I walked out of the store to help a driver short on petrol to get back home. Laphroaig is lovely, but my favourite is Caol Isla, the bottle I had was simply divine.
Ted Heath's favoured tipple, reportedly (Talisker). Apologies if I just ruined it...
You just did! Heath, not withstanding the ongoing investigations by Mike Veale of the Wiltshire Police, was in my opinion easily the worst Tory PM post WW2 (exempting Eden and Suez). Arguably, things may have been different if Iain Macleod hadn't died a few weeks into the Heath government and had served as chancellor throughout rather than Anthony Barber - a fascinating counterfactual I think. And a far more enlightened policy on NI would have helped too.
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
Well in that they agree with Woodcock entirely, that didn't sway them?
They don't want to risk a "gibbering idiot" as PM (their words).
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
I am a lover of the Laphroaig and have been for many, many years. But it is not a Whisky suitable for drinking on all occasions. Late in the evening, after a good meal, it is hard to beat or late on a cold winter's afternoon after a day in the open air. It is not, in my view, an all day whisky; I would not, for example, fill my flask with it when going out for a morning on the local shoot (the Grouse is good enough for those sort of events).
I don't hold with putting water in it either. A separate glass of still mineral water and take them in alternate sips seems the best way to of drinking a fine whisky to me.
I picked up a £25 bottle of Talisker Skye tonight with £7 knocked off it for tomorrow night. I promptly gave £2 of it back when I walked out of the store to help a driver short on petrol to get back home. Laphroaig is lovely, but my favourite is Caol Isla, the bottle I had was simply divine.
Ted Heath's favoured tipple, reportedly (Talisker). Apologies if I just ruined it...
You just did! Heath, not withstanding the ongoing investigations by Mike Veale of the Wiltshire Police, was in my opinion easily the worst Tory PM post WW2 (exempting Eden and Suez). Arguably, things may have been different if Iain Macleod hadn't died a few weeks into the Heath government and had served as chancellor throughout rather than Anthony Barber - a fascinating counterfactual I think. And a far more enlightened policy on NI would have helped too.
Interesting to think what a Con opposition response would be, as it couldn't be repealed without them agreeing I think as a 2/3 provision was included? Or is it a simple majority to repeal?
Repealing it was in the Con manifesto IIRC, but leaving Corbyn to tough it out until a no confidence vote rather than give him the freedom to choose a date, would be appealing.
Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight. Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.
Very interesting.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
Depends how you judge a 'satisfactory Brexit' there is a world of difference between the views of hardcore Remainers and Leavers on that, if she does appoint Ben Gummer as Brexit Secretary and move Davis to Foreign Secretary it does at least suggest she will try for a deal
Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight. Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.
Very interesting.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight. Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.
Very interesting.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
Just on Newsnight. Iain Dale going for a CON majority of > 100. Paul Mason going for hung-parliment to CON majority of 30.
Well is Paul Mason himself is not expecting any improvement in seats for Jezza then things must be bad. After all he's never been one to downplay expectations.
Been told by an acquaintance that it'll be around 3am before most of the Tory targets will be declared in Scotland - we should have an overall picture by then though, right?
Many Scottish seats declare 2am to 4 am. Edinburgh and Glasgow do centralised counts, so depending on turnout can be 4am to 6am.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
I am a lover of the Laphroaig and have been for many, many years. But it is not a Whisky suitable for drinking on all occasions. Late in the evening, after a good meal, it is hard to beat or late on a cold winter's afternoon after a day in the open air. It is not, in my view, an all day whisky; I would not, for example, fill my flask with it when going out for a morning on the local shoot (the Grouse is good enough for those sort of events).
I don't hold with putting water in it either. A separate glass of still mineral water and take them in alternate sips seems the best way to of drinking a fine whisky to me.
I picked up a £25 bottle of Talisker Skye tonight with £7 knocked off it for tomorrow night. I promptly gave £2 of it back when I walked out of the store to help a driver short on petrol to get back home. Laphroaig is lovely, but my favourite is Caol Isla, the bottle I had was simply divine.
Ted Heath's favoured tipple, reportedly (Talisker). Apologies if I just ruined it...
You just did! Heath, not withstanding the ongoing investigations by Mike Veale of the Wiltshire Police, was in my opinion easily the worst Tory PM post WW2 (exempting Eden and Suez). Arguably, things may have been different if Iain Macleod hadn't died a few weeks into the Heath government and had served as chancellor throughout rather than Anthony Barber - a fascinating counterfactual I think. And a far more enlightened policy on NI would have helped too.
I thought the investigation had concluded?
Operation Conifer is ongoing! Mike Veale was very clever IMHO, he produced this YouTube video:
...as he was coming under pressure from prominent figures. UK Column News highlighted this, and then the video got a lot more views as a result, although I thought it had got more than around 11k views now.
Just on Newsnight. Iain Dale going for a CON majority of > 100. Paul Mason going for hung-parliment to CON majority of 30.
Well is Paul Mason himself is not expecting any improvement in seats for Jezza then things must be bad. After all he's never been one to downplay expectations.
Even YouGov's model was too optimistic for him to believe. It truly will be the most amazing model if proven right when not even partisans believed it.
I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.
I am a lover of the Laphroaig and have been for many, many years. But it is not a Whisky suitable for drinking on all occasions. Late in the evening, after a good meal, it is hard to beat or late on a cold winter's afternoon after a day in the open air. It is not, in my view, an all day whisky; I would not, for example, fill my flask with it when going out for a morning on the local shoot (the Grouse is good enough for those sort of events).
I don't hold with putting water in it either. A separate glass of still mineral water and take them in alternate sips seems the best way to of drinking a fine whisky to me.
Tried Caol Ila, Islay, smoother and richer than Laphroaig? Anyway, as someone taught many years ago, and making more money in tips than my wages, working in a bar with over 180 single malts - take your glass of whisky, have a sniff of the bouquet, take a small sip to get the taste, reflect on the mysteries of the universe - now the magic starts, gently pour some slightly chilled water into the whisky until it hazes (no bs, it will do that), it clears in a few seconds, take another sniff and then a sip. You will find that the whisky has now "wakened" (no, I have no idea why it happens, it just does). Repeat. And each time, you will experience slightly different taste sensations and aromas. At last, when the glass is empty, you get a refill. After you have considered which of the tastes you enjoyed the most from your first glass, you will probably be tempted to add what you think is the correct amount of water to the whisky. However much or little you add, you will probably be wrong. It would be a great pity to waste the whisky and there is always the next glass to try again. After the fifth or sixth glashes of whishkey, you will probably pouring the whisky into the water and who the hell cares anyway....
Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight. Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.
Very interesting.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
Mr Osborne will be rubbing his hands with glee...
Has he endorsed anybody yet?
Yes - Theresa May and the conservatives and trashed Corbyn personally and economically
Is it more of the "reported" hate crimes. We get this every time and when justice is served and the stats are done there never turns out to be any statistical significant spike in those crimes.
Interesting to think what a Con opposition response would be, as it couldn't be repealed without them agreeing I think as a 2/3 provision was included? Or is it a simple majority to repeal?
Repealing it was in the Con manifesto IIRC, but leaving Corbyn to tough it out until a no confidence vote rather than give him the freedom to choose a date, would be appealing.
It could be repealed by an Act of Parliament requiring a simple majority at third reading in both Houses. However, as the FTPA repealed the Septennial Act 1715 - the previous governing act for election timing - then something would have to be put in its place.
Interesting Matthew Parris bit about May on Newsnight. Eric Pickles seriously off message on how bad May is at negotiation.
Very interesting.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
Is it more of the "reported" hate crimes. We get this every time and when justice is served and the stats are done there never turns out to be any statistical significant spike in those crimes.
Maybe someone drew a picture of Mohamed. Naughty naughty
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)
I think you can copy the data into another document. Or I can send you a copy via email.
Could you email me a copy please? Do you have my email? Also where would someone put in results as they come in? Or are you staying up all night to fill it out?
Do you think they will raise the white flag like YouGov?!
Sensible option would be +3, since the next lowest is now +4. Gives em some chance of being most accurate, and a 2point move is kinda meaningless on a 1k sample.
I do wonder though if the Electoral Commission is overstepping itself. Surely the Conservatives must be sailing very close to the wind. So has the EC's interpretation of electoral law been challenged in court? Ultimately it is the judges not the EC that decides, and the law can't be changed retrospectively. And, if the Supreme Court eventually found against the Conservatives, would we not face a rerun of the general election in every marginal constituency up and down the country?
No they are not overstepping themselves. They are not interpreting electoral law. Under electoral law the Electoral Commission produces a code of practice which sets out what expenses are regarded as the candidate's (i.e. local) expenses. Your sentence beginning ultimately is therefore the wrong way round - it is the EC, not the judges, that decides.
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
The tactical anti-Corbyn vote
I work in an Essex office - I sometimes doubt we are normal though :-)
2 people - 1 of whom generaly votes tory thinks Jezza will be pm - the rest taking piss out of Abbott
I have two friends in Barrow who are log-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
The tactical anti-Corbyn vote
I work in an Essex office - I sometimes doubt we are normal though :-)
2 people - 1 of whom generaly votes tory thinks Jezza will be pm - the rest taking piss out of Abbott
Edit - he thinks Jezza will win but voted blue by postal
Am I the only person who loves the Alex cartoons in the Telegraph business section ?
You can tell whether someone is commercially astute from their reactions to Alex. Nod and chuckle, business brain. Raise eyebrows, never spent a day in their lives.
Perhaps he is about to reveal the last few years have just been a Joaquin Phoenix style 'prank' he has been playing on us all.
LOL. I always got the sense (watching him during his Newsnight days - I actually can't recall him at C4 but then I don't watch C4 much) that he leaned left. But to this extent? He's written a book (even did an article in The Guardian) about a 'Post-Capitalist' society FGS....
Comments
I recall one punter here had a "brave" bet of Lib Dems 10-19 that failed unexpectedly by being too 'optimistic' for them rather than too pessimistic as expected.
In other words, we could all be wrong.
When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp1706754
Hope you are wrong re the rest of it (as I am sure you hope too)
Goodnight all!
I have two friends in Barrow who are long-term Labour party members and signed Woodcock's nomination papers in 2010. They are both voting Conservative for the first time tomorrow because they won't vote for an "idiot" like Corbyn and, actually, they don't mind May that much.
I like to ask my politically-uninterested husband for the mood in his Essex office for a guide to what "normal" people think. They were all up for Leave in the referendum. And they all think Corbyn would be a disaster.
The Manchester bomb on the 22nd produced a spike in the lead that lasted by about three days. Coincidentally, there was a four-day gap in the turnout model polls (22-26) so they didn't catch it. The self-reported LTV polls *did* catch it but since they were running lower, it wasn't obvious
The London attack and swingback has produced a similar spike, which the polls have now caught up on, regardless of mode.
I'm working late tonight so will not be able to correspond further til around 2am.
But I have the snacks ready, will be watching the TV, checking this place throughout the night both on laptop and then on phone when my battery goes lol and I have also printed of AndyJS's brilliant spreadsheet
I have pretty much everything set, i'm slightly nervous only because of recent shock results at elections but quietly confident that May will remain PM just not clear how big the margin will be. Thinking something like by a 50-80 majority right now.
If she wins another majority tomorrow, I think we're going to see more spite, more vindictiveness, more secrecy, more reliance on her inside circle & more un-trailed policy surprises.
Oh, and crucially, a thoroughly unsatisfactory brexit.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/matt-cartoons-june-2017/
Interesting to think what a Con opposition response would be, as it couldn't be repealed without them agreeing I think as a 2/3 provision was included? Or is it a simple majority to repeal?
Repealing it was in the Con manifesto IIRC, but leaving Corbyn to tough it out until a no confidence vote rather than give him the freedom to choose a date, would be appealing.
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/872576410199629825
Berwickshire, R & S is normally last.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtWVtH8AuA4
...as he was coming under pressure from prominent figures. UK Column News highlighted this, and then the video got a lot more views as a result, although I thought it had got more than around 11k views now.
At last, when the glass is empty, you get a refill. After you have considered which of the tastes you enjoyed the most from your first glass, you will probably be tempted to add what you think is the correct amount of water to the whisky. However much or little you add, you will probably be wrong. It would be a great pity to waste the whisky and there is always the next glass to try again.
After the fifth or sixth glashes of whishkey, you will probably pouring the whisky into the water and who the hell cares anyway....
It's a long day tomorrow.
Argyll & Bute CON
You heard it here first
DYOR
2 people - 1 of whom generaly votes tory thinks Jezza will be pm - the rest taking piss out of Abbott
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btPJPFnesV4