re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)
I think you can copy the data into another document. Or I can send you a copy via email.
Could you email me a copy please? Do you have my email? Also where would someone put in results as they come in? Or are you staying up all night to fill it out?
I don't have your email address at the moment. I'm going to be filling in my Labour defence sheet during the night.
Do you think they will raise the white flag like YouGov?!
Sensible option would be +3, since the next lowest is now +4. Gives em some chance of being most accurate, and a 2point move is kinda meaningless on a 1k sample.
It's an 11,000 sample I think – sure Lyons said that on DP.
Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?
A claim that is once again all too predictable (see Brexit aftermath) and handy for the Mayor of London to deflect more inconvenient questions about integration of ethnic minorities.
Allegations are not convictions. Was there any actual evidence that hate crime convictions rose following the Brexit vote? I recall lots of anecdotes presented as fact by the MSM.
Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)
I think you can copy the data into another document. Or I can send you a copy via email.
Could you email me a copy please? Do you have my email? Also where would someone put in results as they come in? Or are you staying up all night to fill it out?
I don't have your email address at the moment. I'm going to be filling in my Labour defence sheet during the night.
Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
Harrow W - I live near there - we (CON) have no chance
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!
It's an 11,000 sample I think – sure Lyons said that on DP.
Would be good if that's the case - really they should all do that for their final poll. I see Surveymonkey did (also 11k), and Panelbase went 1k>3k. ICM only 1500 final though, seems a little cheap, given that's the number everyone will judge you on.
Been told by an acquaintance that it'll be around 3am before most of the Tory targets will be declared in Scotland - we should have an overall picture by then though, right?
Many Scottish seats declare 2am to 4 am. Edinburgh and Glasgow do centralised counts, so depending on turnout can be 4am to 6am.
Berwickshire, R & S is normally last.
I would expect the Scottish counts to be much the same timings as in 2015 since there were no local elections then either. Edinburgh always takes longer than it should for no apparent reason since the counting centre is no more than 30minutes from almost any part of the city. Glasgow seats tend to have many fewer actual votes they will be quicker.
Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
Harrow W - I live near there - we (CON) have no chance
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!
I remember that result in 1997 extremely well. As a young Tory activist in Eltham, that one left me speechless. The swings that Blair achieved in mid to outer London were spectacular. It really bears no resemblance demographically to the seat that Hugh Dykes won back in 1992!
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
I don't claim anything approaching your combined predictive value, but I feel similarly.
OTOH the Tories are now sending leaflets out highlighting Labour's garden/council tax increases and what it will cost the average NW6 homeowner - about £12,000 p.a.
Reports are coming in that May, Johnson, Paul Dacre and the London editor of the Sun have all been reported to the police for being in contravention of the People's Act. From what I can understand, it is to passing off as true, the unsubstantiated and incorrect, acts, actions and words of other candidates in an election. And yes, it is serious. A recent case after a GE when a returning cabinet minister was forced to stand down from his seat, causing a by-election, and I gather, his imprisonment. Ps: The Sun in Scotland supports the SNP.
I thought the Sun front page was bad, but the Guardian front page is damning.
Damning as in not overtly backing Corbyn on the front page?
No - as in the text. Talking of ICM final poll, 50-100 majority for Con and urging caution on leadership challenges before listing the main runners/riders.
Not much of a motivational early morning read for the faithful.... although most of them will be reaching for the Morning Star with their cornflakes I guess.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
I don't claim anything approaching your combined predictive value, but I feel similarly.
OTOH the Tories are now sending leaflets out highlighting Labour's garden/council tax increases and what it will cost the average NW6 homeowner - about £12,000 p.a.
Reports are coming in that May, Johnson, Paul Dacre and the London editor of the Sun have all been reported to the police for being in contravention of the People's Act. From what I can understand, it is to passing off as true, the unsubstantiated and incorrect, acts, actions and words of other candidates in an election. And yes, it is serious. A recent case after a GE when a returning cabinet minister was forced to stand down from his seat, causing a by-election, and I gather, his imprisonment. Ps: The Sun in Scotland supports the SNP.
Peoples act? None exists. Of it's for accusing Corbyn of being a friend of terrorists, then you can't involve editors in that, if it is meant to refer to the Representation of the Peoples act (1983), and besides which it isn't a false statement.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.
I do admire tse managing to make a classic David Ed miliband error in his podcast debut. Bravo. That's almost spursy.... enjoyable listen but Mrs scrap who is the 5 mins a week interest in politics usually thought you were al a bitl too harsh on t may...
I did some calculations a few weeks back and in every election from 1974 onwards in the final result the Conservatives bettered both their lowest poll rating and worst position against Labour.
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.
What do you think of Erdington? I've got Edgbaston and Northfield as Tory gains, but I think Erdington will prove just out of reach. And invisible Tom Watson to hold on to West Bromwich East I think as well.
Good night all. Good luck to all those PB'ers pounding the streets tomorrow. Make sure you've got a spare cagoule when you get drenched! Can't wait for 21 hours and 55 minutes time now!
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
Probably, because there aren't any local election ballots to separate out.
Another variable.. I wonder if there are more centralised counts this time? Three (rural) seats are in one centre for the first time round me. Which way does that work? Bigger team means faster.. or longer trek to get boxes in etc (or, I guess, a relatively *smaller* team) slows it down?
Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
Harrow W - I live near there - we (CON) have no chance
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!
Harrow West is my seat - I agree it will stay red. Gareth Thomas is a good local MP - I've seen a lot more Labour posters than I have done in previous years.
"London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.
"Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative."
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=0
Allegations are not convictions. Was there any actual evidence that hate crime convictions rose following the Brexit vote? I recall lots of anecdotes presented as fact by the MSM.
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!
It's the running totals for the 2015 election with declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=0
Edinburgh always takes longer than it should for no apparent reason since the counting centre is no more than 30minutes from almost any part of the city. Glasgow seats tend to have many fewer actual votes they will be quicker.
Penistone & Stocksbridge?
Middlesborough S?
Blackpool S?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI
Ps: The Sun in Scotland supports the SNP.
Con, Torbay: 1/6.
CON 41 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LIB 8 (=)
KIP 2 (-3)
GRN 2 (=)
Well, Survation are bound to get the bragging rights if the result is anywhere from Lab lead to 3-4 lead.
Not much of a motivational early morning read for the faithful.... although most of them will be reaching for the Morning Star with their cornflakes I guess.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-25641247
I think they learned their lesson.
Let's hope it's for real tomorrow!
I'd rather bet on safe Labour seats in case I make a mistake.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/britain-the-thursday-election/
I was hoping for
KIP 0 (-5)
Still a day to go, however.
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/06/06/the-jabir-bin-zayid-mosque-and-the-limits-of-tolerance/
Happy hunting to all those involved in the ground war today.
BBC News website cleared of anything political... always seems strangely clean after all the recent content.
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.
Did you see that link from the Colchester paper I posted earlier - aparantly Labour ahead in the East :-)
Ugh... is this a serious polling company?
Torfaen: Lab 2/9.
The Herald uses them:
https://twitter.com/bmgresearch?lang=en
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
And I've never heard of Qriously before.
You'll be able to see it from Space......
Happy Polling day and good luck to all those standing or working today - here's hoping it passes off without incident
Qriously
LAB 41
CON 39
LIB 6
SNP 4
"London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.
"Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2015
http://www.qriously.com/blog/gap-closing-between-conservative-and-labour-parties/
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872588416633974785
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them