"London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.
"Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative."
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
Well that's not really an equal comparison IMHO. Young people are less likely to vote than Old people are. Which is why risking not quite catching a demographic that is 95% cert to vote seems an odd decision to me.
We have a landline in our house, though I never make calls on it. It's my mum that does.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Are there any formulas in your spreadsheet? Only the copy I made doesn't seem to have any.
"London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.
"Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative."
re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
Probably, because there aren't any local election ballots to separate out.
Another variable.. I wonder if there are more centralised counts this time? Three (rural) seats are in one centre for the first time round me. Which way does that work? Bigger team means faster.. or longer trek to get boxes in etc (or, I guess, a relatively *smaller* team) slows it down?
Difficult one. I suppose if the results for those constituencies took ages last time they might be faster this time. And vice versa. Which three are they, if you don't mind me asking?
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
I do. I don't like giving people my mobile number willy nilly.
Doesn't seem they've released the PDF tables of their poll - odd.
It seems they operate by placing the poll in adverts, that appears on respondents mobile phone / tablet. So the responders self select. Its left unstated how much work qriously then undertakes to correct for demographics. E.g. how much does qriously know about each responder? If I were being cynical, I would suggest this is marketing ploy to get attention to their platform.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Are there any formulas in your spreadsheet? Only the copy I made doesn't seem to have any.
When I copied it from my spreadsheet program into Google Sheets it didn't copy the formulas, just the numbers themselves. I might put the formulas in the Google Sheet tomorrow if I get time.
I do admire tse managing to make a classic David Ed miliband error in his podcast debut. Bravo. That's almost spursy.... enjoyable listen but Mrs scrap who is the 5 mins a week interest in politics usually thought you were al a bitl too harsh on t may...
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
Well that's not really an equal comparison IMHO. Young people are less likely to vote than Old people are. Which is why risking not quite catching a demographic that is 95% cert to vote seems an odd decision to me.
We have a landline in our house, though I never make calls on it. It's my mum that does.
It's not a matter of opinion. If a survey is properly weighted for turnout etc, it shouldn't matter if the absolute reach to any particular demographic varies. That should be factored in by the weighting. That is not to say their methodology is right – merely that weighting is designed to remove differentials in survey reach and voting turnout to any particular group.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Are there any formulas in your spreadsheet? Only the copy I made doesn't seem to have any.
When I copied it from my spreadsheet program into Google Sheets it didn't copy the formulas, just the numbers themselves. I might put the formulas in the Google Sheet tomorrow if I get time.
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.
What do you think of Erdington? I've got Edgbaston and Northfield as Tory gains, but I think Erdington will prove just out of reach. And invisible Tom Watson to hold on to West Bromwich East I think as well.
Close. I've been out in the Ukip/Non-voter wards so I'm not getting a representative picture, but there are clearly new Tory voters. Last month I was predicting a Tory gain but now I think Jack will hold on.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Are there any formulas in your spreadsheet? Only the copy I made doesn't seem to have any.
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
I do. I don't like giving people my mobile number willy nilly.
Doesn't seem they've released the PDF tables of their poll - odd.
It seems they operate by placing the poll in adverts, that appears on respondents mobile phone / tablet. So the responders self select. Its left unstated how much work qriously then undertakes to correct for demographics. E.g. how much does qriously know about each responder? If I were being cynical, I would suggest this is marketing ploy to get attention to their platform.
Yeah.. that doesn't sound like a great strategy for a balanced opinion poll.
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Are there any formulas in your spreadsheet? Only the copy I made doesn't seem to have any.
File > download as xls. That should save them.
The formulas are not in the google doc, Andy has confirmed it.
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
Landlines are quite useful when you can't get any mobile signal at home in Cornwall
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.
Are there any formulas in your spreadsheet? Only the copy I made doesn't seem to have any.
File > download as xls. That should save them.
The formulas are not in the google doc, Andy has confirmed it.
Oops, my bad! I thought you were just copying/pasting the text which was ignoring the formula.
no way is Corbyn polling higher than blair in 2005 or milliband in 2015
With the collapse of Lib Dem, it seems certain he will beat Ed, but getting Tony Blair numbers just seem completely mad...but then I don't understand what the yuff see in Corbyn, he scares the crap out of me so much I am voting Tory for the first time ever at a GE.
Unlike Sanders in the US, who the Clinton machine couldn't find any dirt on, Corbyn is like a pig in mud when it comes to crap in his backstory.
The question is, is this just huge levels of tactical voting we are seeing, or is it actually a genuine labour surge? If the former, then means it would be a relatively horrible night for the SNP and good for all the unionist parties. If this is part of the same UK wide surge in Lab we are seeing, it will do them little good, and split opposition to SNP leaving them to clean up big time even on a reduced voteshare.
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
I do. I don't like giving people my mobile number willy nilly.
So you give them your landline number?
Good night.
Yes - I have my mobile on me all the time, I don't want random companies and the like bothering me on it during the day, they can leave a message when I don't answer the landline.
LOL...then later in the night, the likes of Faisal Islam totally misunderstanding vote piles and tweeting like a manic that some upset is on the cards that isn't.
I thought the Sun front page was bad, but the Guardian front page is damning.
Damning as in not overtly backing Corbyn on the front page?
Yup. They've made it as anodyne as possible to make their (non-)position very clear.
It's a shame - I know it's difficult to back Corbyn, but when other papers are so extreme in their support for May it'd be good to have a counterpoint to that.
no way is Corbyn polling higher than blair in 2005 or milliband in 2015
With the collapse of Lib Dem, it seems certain he will beat Ed, but getting Tony Blair numbers just seem completely mad...but then I don't understand what the yuff see in Corbyn, he scares the crap out of me so much I am voting Tory for the first time ever at a GE
hopefully it's going to be another polling disaster tomorrow. roll on 10pm . If Corbyn does manage to somehow pull this off we are all screwed the damage to the UK will be irreversible .
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
As I understand it we will come to embrace the dirty feeling; it is the tainting of our souls which will be lasting.
They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them
Well that's not really an equal comparison IMHO. Young people are less likely to vote than Old people are. Which is why risking not quite catching a demographic that is 95% cert to vote seems an odd decision to me.
We have a landline in our house, though I never make calls on it. It's my mum that does.
It's not a matter of opinion. If a survey is properly weighted for turnout etc, it shouldn't matter if the absolute reach to any particular demographic varies. That should be factored in by the weighting. That is not to say their methodology is right – merely that weighting is designed to remove differentials in survey reach and voting turnout to any particular group.
Well, it does - last time round one of the reasons as to why we had a polling disaster was that samples contained too many politically engaged people (especially politically engaged young people).
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
Tainted for life.
Damn...I was hoping a week or two of dettol baths would do the trick.
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
As I understand it we will come to embrace the dirty feeling; it is the tainting of our souls which will be lasting.
Sometimes these things have to be done. Remember you'll own the next 5 years if May wins. If Corbyn wins you can say you tried your best though, and get the same "I didn't vote for this clusterfuck" satisfaction that remain voters now have
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
Tainted for life.
Damn...I was hoping a week or two of dettol baths would do the trick.
You remember that one foot in the grave episode where Victor Meldrew smelled of TCP. A glimpse at your future.
So just missing Ipsos, we have: 1 4 5 7 7 8 10 12. Mean of 6.75, with Ipsos perhaps to drag that down a fraction.
13% with BMG as well.
I've just come home. Why is everyone panicking about Mr. Herdson saying the polls are right? If they are rigth that is a Tory lead of 7%, and since they have gained % outside of the south and London where there are hardly any marginals it should mean a larger Tory majority.
He even predicted Tories would GAIN Wakefield despite the swing back to Labour. Thats a 3% swing from Labour to the Tories. Thats 27 GAINS on a uniform swing plus another 4/5 GAINS in Scotland outside of UNS.
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
Tainted for life.
Damn...I was hoping a week or two of dettol baths would do the trick.
You remember that one foot in the grave episode where Victor Meldrew smelled of TCP. A glimpse at your future.
Richard Wilson will be down the polls voting Corbyn tomorrow that is for sure.
After doing the dirty and getting stuck into my grilled baby...just wondering how long / how many showers does it take for the dirty feeling to wear off?
As I understand it we will come to embrace the dirty feeling; it is the tainting of our souls which will be lasting.
Sometimes these things have to be done. Remember you'll own the next 5 years if May wins. If Corbyn wins you can say you tried your best though, and get the same "I didn't vote for this clusterfuck" satisfaction that remain voters now have
I should vote ld again and avoid any responsibility, but time to stand up and say, loud and proud,
"I'm not really a fan of TMay and I have issues with bits of the Tory platform, but on balance it is realistic, and the main alternative is not appealing, and needs to be defeated to learn it's lesson and that means voting Tory, but I wish the LDs well as strong third parties are important"
no way is Corbyn polling higher than blair in 2005 or milliband in 2015
With the collapse of Lib Dem, it seems certain he will beat Ed, but getting Tony Blair numbers just seem completely mad...but then I don't understand what the yuff see in Corbyn, he scares the crap out of me so much I am voting Tory for the first time ever at a GE.
Unlike Sanders in the US, who the Clinton machine couldn't find any dirt on, Corbyn is like a pig in mud when it comes to crap in his backstory.
Corbyn may not have a degree but he does have a PhD - piled high and deep in sh*t
It looks like the tories have wasted a perfectly good Corbyn.
They'd convinced themselves this wouldn't be anywhere near as close.
His backstory is I'm afraid not going to be properly heard when it is laid out by the right wing press. I think people have formed a view on how any Labour leader is treated nowadays so alot of it is dismissed.
Keiran: 8-9% lead for Con, Con Maj 50-75, May will go post BREXIT TSE: Con ±375, Lab ±200 around 100maj, May in trouble with Maj <40 OGH: Con Maj: ±50-60, Scottish gains, London Losses, May unlikely to be Leader at next GE
Sgt. Sunil: Alright, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we're gonna conquer, and we're gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we're gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
Isn't BMG the key bit of data here? That's Labour's internal pollster saying CON lead of 13. Both front benches making constituency visits that tally with that. With occasional exceptions, doorknocking reports outside of London posted here have been there or thereabouts. Atul over at Labour Uncut saying they are getting that sort of mood music. Baxter BMG for CON MAJ 110.
Theresa May spent more than half of the election campaign in Labour-held seats, demonstrating how confident she is of making gains from Jeremy Corbyn’s party, a Guardian analysis has shown.....
......By contrast, Corbyn has spent his campaign shoring up support in areas where the party holds sizeable majorities. Of the 76 stops that the Labour leader has made in seven weeks, 42% were in seats where the party holds a significant majority of 20 percentage points or more.
Isn't BMG the key bit of data here? That's Labour's internal pollster saying CON lead of 13.
Yep, certainly explains why they're so downbeat.
I always come back to the fact the Tories have never really dropped the hammer. Corbyn has had one day of the bucket of shit treatment in a month. If Textor / Messina were getting 1% leads, Crosby would have trying every trick in the book.
Comments
http://www.pharmexec.com/how-one-pollster-correctly-predicted-brexit
We have a landline in our house, though I never make calls on it. It's my mum that does.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/london-bridge-terror-plot-could-have-hatched-kfc-restaurant/
Keiran's on Al Jazeera.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/children-drink-soya-milk-shorter-scientists-warn-fads/
Me? Harsh on Theresa May? Never.
I'm fair and impartial l.
Scottish Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 39%
LAB: 29%
CON: 26%
LDEM: 6%
(via @Survation / telephone)
benedictmpwhite at gmail dot com
Good night.
Unlike Sanders in the US, who the Clinton machine couldn't find any dirt on, Corbyn is like a pig in mud when it comes to crap in his backstory.
Seems like a sound prediction.
It's a shame - I know it's difficult to back Corbyn, but when other papers are so extreme in their support for May it'd be good to have a counterpoint to that.
Here it is:
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges
09.00 tomorrow. Pics of voting lines. Reports turn-out "off the charts". Tory panic. 21.00. Reports turn-out "average". Labour panic.
Good night all, and have fun tomorrow!
I've just come home. Why is everyone panicking about Mr. Herdson saying the polls are right? If they are rigth that is a Tory lead of 7%, and since they have gained % outside of the south and London where there are hardly any marginals it should mean a larger Tory majority.
He even predicted Tories would GAIN Wakefield despite the swing back to Labour. Thats a 3% swing from Labour to the Tories. Thats 27 GAINS on a uniform swing plus another 4/5 GAINS in Scotland outside of UNS.
"I'm not really a fan of TMay and I have issues with bits of the Tory platform, but on balance it is realistic, and the main alternative is not appealing, and needs to be defeated to learn it's lesson and that means voting Tory, but I wish the LDs well as strong third parties are important"
Night all.
It looks like the tories have wasted a perfectly good Corbyn.
They'd convinced themselves this wouldn't be anywhere near as close.
IMO, TM should have offered some real meat by asking the electorate to give her a mandate to trigger A50.
Wow. Strong post field reallocation of DKs by @yougov back to 2015 party (a la @ICMResearch), but stronger. Possibly explains trip to 7%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=0
Keiran: 8-9% lead for Con, Con Maj 50-75, May will go post BREXIT
TSE: Con ±375, Lab ±200 around 100maj, May in trouble with Maj <40
OGH: Con Maj: ±50-60, Scottish gains, London Losses, May unlikely to be Leader at next GE
Corbyn will continue as Labour leader
Last word for Sir David Butler 'I don't know'
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?
PB Tories: Yeah!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?
PB Tories: Lean and mean!
Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? RobD! TSE! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=0
BMG Data tables at http://ow.ly/r04530cpB9L
......By contrast, Corbyn has spent his campaign shoring up support in areas where the party holds sizeable majorities. Of the 76 stops that the Labour leader has made in seven weeks, 42% were in seats where the party holds a significant majority of 20 percentage points or more.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-election-campaign-stops-analysis?CMP=twt_gu
SNP 44
Con 7
Lab 5
LD 3
It's very sensitive - Lab taking votes from SNP could well help Con win more seats.
It obviously does on UNS - as most Con targets are straight fights with the SNP. Although of course UNS may well not apply in those areas.
Needs more chortling and tittering.