politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation phone poll for GMB sees TMay’s party’s lead down
Comments
-
I drink to forget.JackW said:
You suffering from dementia ?!?!?Theuniondivvie said:Christ, I keep forgetting that Boris is Foreign Secretary.
Astounding.
It's just a bit too early to start obliterating the memory of Boris's Today interview.0 -
I doubt it, in any case Scottish Tories +11% on 2015 in that poll, SLAB +1%, SNP -9%, so the big swing still SNP to Tory which is all that matters under FPTP in terms of SNP Tory marginals, if SLAB pick up 1 or 2 from the SNP too even Tories may cheer a Corbyn gainTheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the Corbyn surge is going to push the Scottish Tories into third.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/8719731354987847690 -
Yes, they usually announce a couple of refinements to the exit poll over the couple of hours after 10pm, as clearly they have to stop collecting data at some point in order to have a first crunch of the numbers done by 21:45 or so.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.0 -
I've been berated by friends for saying I'm not voting. In the time it'll take you to vote I could do something useful such as clean my shoes. Both will have exactly the same effect on the outcome, one will make me feel better.AlastairMeeks said:I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
0 -
0
-
That's a big assumption! Who is to say that Owen Smith or Argclu would have got the surge to begin with?Big_G_NorthWales said:It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
0 -
@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".0
-
If I have read the Survation detail correctly, 82% of the 18-24 year olds they contacted said they were totally certain to vote or had already done so by post.HaroldO said:
Is any group going to be that high?Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/871987755152048129
82%!!!!!
Get out of here.0 -
-
aka clashes with her remedial maths class?Scott_P said:@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".
0 -
Popcorn denied.Scott_P said:@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".
0 -
They probably told her she was unwell firstScott_P said:@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".
0 -
Doesn't that rather depend on where Alistair lives?freetochoose said:
I've been berated by friends for saying I'm not voting. In the time it'll take you to vote I could do something useful such as clean my shoes. Both will have exactly the same effect on the outcome, one will make me feel better.AlastairMeeks said:I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
0 -
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
0 -
I she makes any appearance on the shadow front bench after the election, it will be a travestyScott_P said:@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".
0 -
If they've overcorrected their methodology, we could be waking up to Prime Minister Corbyn on Friday.HYUFD said:
Survation final published poll 2015 Tories 31% Labour 31%, result Tories 38% Labour 31%Razedabode said:
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationallynumbertwelve said:
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/8719877551520481290 -
Kudos at least you ate actually voting for someoneCD13 said:Mr HYUFD,
I decided to vote for the first person alphabetically on the ballot paper instead of spoiling it. A Mr Hitchen will of Ukip will now get my vote. I've not read his blurb and an H rather than a J has determined that decision, so I will retain my record of voting in every GE since I were t'lad.
If Corbyn's kiddies do it, I will accept the result. We may well struggle but they will blame it on Brexit, as politicians always blame each other or outside factors. Que Sera, but I can't see it somehow. The Grey Mist will prevail.0 -
I thought most of them voted by post?Sandpit said:
Yes, they usually announce a couple of refinements to the exit poll over the couple of hours after 10pm, as clearly they have to stop collecting data at some point in order to have a first crunch of the numbers done by 21:45 or so.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.0 -
I find my view of the gutter greatly enhanced with this new periscope I've got.RochdalePioneers said:
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.0 -
Of course she's unwell, she was involved in a big car crash only 12 hours ago.Scott_P said:@christopherhope: BREAKING Diane Abbott pulls out of @BBCRadio4 Woman's Hour this morning. Labour has told the BBC she is "unwell".
0 -
Amazing how a supposedly serious forecaster can leave the Speaker out of the majority but not his three deputies.CarlottaVance said:Consolation for the sheet washers of the bed wetters:
My official prediction using my Final Election Model is that the Conservatives will make a net gain of 45 seats resulting in a working majority of 105 seats.
https://marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk-general-election-2017-forecast-1-latest-prediction/
Has a chunk of NE Scotland turning blue....
0 -
Didn't the FT recommend voting Conservative this time around?SquareRoot said:
Well they would say that.. and it's printed in a Labour paperwilliamglenn said:
0 -
For anyone wondering about further polls this week, I have just completed a fairly lengthy Opinium one.0
-
If rumours are correct and Ben Gummer becomes Brexit Secretary and Davis replaces Boris as Foreign Secretary after the election even the EU might change their tune a littlewilliamglenn said:0 -
Given what we have learned about Mrs May over the course of the campaign, it is reasonable to conclude that what we have been hearing from the EU27 about her approach to Brexit is pretty much on the money.williamglenn said:
0 -
I consider it my civic duty to turn up to the polling booth. What I do in there is then my business.freetochoose said:
I've been berated by friends for saying I'm not voting. In the time it'll take you to vote I could do something useful such as clean my shoes. Both will have exactly the same effect on the outcome, one will make me feel better.AlastairMeeks said:I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
0 -
Since when did not eating extend to not voting?Sandpit said:
Yes, they usually announce a couple of refinements to the exit poll over the couple of hours after 10pm, as clearly they have to stop collecting data at some point in order to have a first crunch of the numbers done by 21:45 or so.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
I think the breaking of the fast is around 21:15 in London, and a few minutes later further north. It could be a very last minute rush to the polls indeed, those fasting would be better to turn up early at 07:00 to cast their vote instead.0 -
Green is at least better than a wasted voteChris said:
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.HYUFD said:
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I supposeThe_Apocalypse said:
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.Chris said:Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.0 -
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe ithe model continuously updates behind the scenes all day with each field report right up to the wire, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!0 -
The Tories gave us Brexit......I think Labour giving us PM Corbyn would be fare swop in the race to whom is more incompetent.......rcs1000 said:
If they've overcorrected their methodology, we could be waking up to Prime Minister Corbyn on Friday.HYUFD said:
Survation final published poll 2015 Tories 31% Labour 31%, result Tories 38% Labour 31%Razedabode said:
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationallynumbertwelve said:
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/871987755152048129
A score draw of shitness.....
0 -
Only because of the poll tax and the Tories still won in 1992 in part because of Kinnock who stayed on after 1987, if Corbyn still leads Labour in 2022 could be the same storySouthamObserver said:
What May is not going to get is the Mother of the Nation mandate for the White Cliffs of Dover, Never Surrender, Blame it All on the Foreigners Brexit the Tories were clearly planning at the start of the campaign. Her many, manifest limitations have been exposed and on a personal level she ends the election a weakened figure. Thatcher was out of office two years after a landslide on the back of growing unpopularity. I would not be surprised to see the same thing happening again.kle4 said:
Vulnerable on a 76 majority? That's a good majority that lots predicted at the start. If that js the result the surge isn't real.foxinsoxuk said:
The surge is real. I am expecting Lab gains in London and South also Scotland but losses in Midlands and North.Gallowgate said:I think the Corbyn surge is real. No overall majority is my prediction. Con largest party.
This has not been a Brexit election, but Nuttall has been very poor. Lab have backed Brexit, but also won on austerity, social care and even security. The former kipper voters like what they hear, and are going to be more Lab than was first thought.
Con 76 majority, and with May looking vulnerable and isolated, rather than strong and stable. Con overvalued her brand and undervalued the generic Tory brand.0 -
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?Jonathan said:
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!0 -
Well, quite. This poll is 42/40. Then you allow for the Survation including NI and on a comparable basis to other polls it's Con 43.Black_Rook said:On topic: reporting something as notoriously fickle and inaccurate as an opinion poll to one decimal point is laughable. It's rather like the nice lady who does the weather on telly saying that temperatures will reach 27.095°C in London on Wednesday afternoon at 4:54pm. In scientific parlance, this is called "a load of bollocks."
0 -
Only ICM and Comres have, Survation have done sod all as far as I can seercs1000 said:
If they've overcorrected their methodology, we could be waking up to Prime Minister Corbyn on Friday.HYUFD said:
Survation final published poll 2015 Tories 31% Labour 31%, result Tories 38% Labour 31%Razedabode said:
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationallynumbertwelve said:
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/8719877551520481290 -
Just to give PBers a heads up.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.0 -
No, of course not. Muslims don't get a month off work; this is not like the orthodox Jewish Sabbath.Nemtynakht said:
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?Jonathan said:
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
If there is an issue at all, it is that by 9.15pm anyone who has not eaten or drunk all day and not got round to voting already will be less likely to make a last minute trip.0 -
Thanks. You have saved me a packet betting against the exit poll.Jonathan said:
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe ithe model continuously updates behind the scenes all day with each field report right up to the wire, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!0 -
Looking forward to it JackJackW said:Just to give PBers a heads up.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.0 -
If the UKIP vote does not go conservative tomorrow in good numbers and Theresa May does not get a reasonable majority their hopes will evaporate as the HOC will move towards the softest of all Brexit.0
-
Mr. Rog, cheers.
Mr. Meeks, you could always vote Morris Dancer. I know technically write-ins don't count, but it'd be something to add to my electoral support in a governor of California election a few years ago.0 -
MEN reporting "labour sources" worried about five "safe" seats in GM area with no evidence of the labour poll surge. Sorry not able to post link.0
-
I'd suggest you look in the mirror but understand last time you did it broke.malcolmg said:
LOL, again typical Tory , ZERO sense of Humour. Like giving it out but big jessies when the boot is on the other foot. Read your posts you silly turnip.CarlottaVance said:
I see you're back subtracting from the sum total of human knowledge.malcolmg said:
Typical duplicitious Tories, always sneaking about and telling porkies. It is bred into them from an early age.CarlottaVance said:
In my grandmother's day children showed their parent's political allegiance - her father, a fisherman was a staunch Tory, so it was blue ribbons in her hair. But there were shy Tories then too as the Tory MP Sir Arthur Bignold gave coal to the poor so she was teasedpeter_from_putney said:SouthamObserver said:
It'll be greater than 50.Richard_H said:I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how thority of about 50 is most likely result.
ry supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
As I remarked yesterday, the absence of Tory posters is simply another manifestation of Shy Toryism. Back in my callow youth, it was common practice for cars to exhibit their owners' political colours by means of posters being sellotaped onto the vehicles' rear windows. Absolutely no one would consider doing such a thing in 2017 for fear of having their car keyed from front to rear. A clear indication of how society has changed and clearly not in this instance for the better.SouthamObserver said:
It'll be greater than 50.Richard_H said:I just think that Tory voters are much quieter about how they vote and don't take part as much in polling. Also Tory voters are more likely to be over 40 and have gotten into the habit of voting. Labour can only achieve a hung parliament at best, if they manage to get 60%+ of under 30's voting.
Still think a Tory majority of about 50 is most likely result.
Yesterday I drove from the Suffolk coast to Leamington Spa, through what I imagine is an unbroken string of Tory constituencies. If I saw any posters, they were almost all Labour ones. In Leamington itself - which turned Tory in 2010 and got more Tory in 2015 - the only posters you see are Labour ones. As you say, Tory supporters are far less vocal than Labour ones. I can't see how this doesn't feed through to the polls.
You are clearly a very bitter, sad little man to feel the need to trash someone's dead grandmother....0 -
Since the reduction in Corporation tax has increased received funds by HMRC why would increasing it by 3% have helped NHS funding?IanB2 said:
That's a big assumption! Who is to say that Owen Smith or Argclu would have got the surge to begin with?Big_G_NorthWales said:It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
0 -
I get the impression that this time the Greens are ruthlessly targeting on a small number of seats (probably not much more than Brighton, Bristol, Norwich, Sheffield and IOW), which they haven't tended to do before.HYUFD said:
Green is at least better than a wasted voteChris said:
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.HYUFD said:
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I supposeThe_Apocalypse said:
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.Chris said:Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.0 -
How did Osborne rate among the Scots?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not only the Corbyn surge. Mrs May's is now the worst rated leader in Scotland, which is now a drag on the Scottish Tories.kle4 said:
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the Corbyn surge is going to push the Scottish Tories into third.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/871973135498784769
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
Mrs May is quite awful.
She should hold her head in shame.0 -
I think they will vote early so to be home for the evening family feast after sunsetJonathan said:
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe ithe model continuously updates behind the scenes all day with each field report right up to the wire, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!0 -
Unlikely. ICM, ComRes may have overcorrected, in which case we could be waking up to a Conservative Party without a majority.rcs1000 said:
If they've overcorrected their methodology, we could be waking up to Prime Minister Corbyn on Friday.HYUFD said:
Survation final published poll 2015 Tories 31% Labour 31%, result Tories 38% Labour 31%Razedabode said:
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationallynumbertwelve said:
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/8719877551520481290 -
but they have everyone too high not just the young.Razedabode said:
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationallynumbertwelve said:
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/871987755152048129
In that Survation poll there is some good news for the tories. It asked "if the election resulted in no party having an overall majority, which of the following would you approve or disapprove of if they were necessaryt to form the next government".
Labour had a net negative of 6% saying they disapprove tory had a net positive of 1% saying they approve. This could indicate tactical voting will be a net benefit for the tories.0 -
Labour list have an article pointing out the same. Is this real? Is seems more like expectation management and GOTV after the tide of increasing polls for Labour.nichomar said:MEN reporting "labour sources" worried about five "safe" seats in GM area with no evidence of the labour poll surge. Sorry not able to post link.
0 -
Are any of these polls yet the final one from the pollster? Or are we expecting a suite tomorrow?EmptyNester said:For anyone wondering about further polls this week, I have just completed a fairly lengthy Opinium one.
0 -
I hope you're right!HYUFD said:
Only ICM and Comres have, Survation have done sod all as far as I can seercs1000 said:
If they've overcorrected their methodology, we could be waking up to Prime Minister Corbyn on Friday.HYUFD said:
Survation final published poll 2015 Tories 31% Labour 31%, result Tories 38% Labour 31%Razedabode said:
Surely Survation must know something's up with this figure? They stand to lose a lot reputationallynumbertwelve said:
Surge or no surge, that is patently not going to happen.Scrapheap_as_was said:Even with this heroic assumption the Tories are only just short a maj - hence my Betfair betting on Tory Maj now
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/8719877551520481290 -
CarlottaVance said:
How did Osborne rate among the Scots?TheScreamingEagles said:
It's not only the Corbyn surge. Mrs May's is now the worst rated leader in Scotland, which is now a drag on the Scottish Tories.kle4 said:
I want them to do well there, but that would be unfortunate in some ways, confused people's tactical voting (if they were so inclined). Not all polls in Scotland show that though.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the Corbyn surge is going to push the Scottish Tories into third.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/871973135498784769
The corbyn surge does seem to have accelerated in the past week if anything, from thoser who had not picked it up before - like these other areas suddenly noticed the other polls (which have since stopped surging) and picked up.
Mrs May is quite awful.
She should hold her head in shame.0 -
Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately)
I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet
Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s
Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan
SNP in Edinburgh South
Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale
Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself.
I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.0 -
Fake News!isam said:Do news channels always do this?
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/8714872987219927050 -
Fighting the last war again. There are plenty of other places to drive vans into tourists.isam said:0 -
It is 19% at present and going down to 17%. In the business review this morning there was agreement that our corporation tax rates could be higher without damaging the economy but not at labour's rate of 26%. Interesting that the SNP do not support Labour's increase to 26%Nemtynakht said:
Since the reduction in Corporation tax has increased received funds by HMRC why would increasing it by 3% have helped NHS funding?IanB2 said:
That's a big assumption! Who is to say that Owen Smith or Argclu would have got the surge to begin with?Big_G_NorthWales said:It is remarkable that just two days from the election Corbyn is the only reason why labour will not get a majority. Apart from Theresa May's poor campaign the lack of attention to increased funding for the NHS and nurses pay and concentration on a 17% corporation tax rate had all the wrong priorities. Corporation tax at 20% and funding for the NHS and nurses pay would have changed the narrative completely
0 -
Wait till they kill people while shouting that view, then sit down and talk?
https://twitter.com/leaveeuofficial/status/8716738119844167680 -
Good stuff JackW...pbCOM's oldest, and most reliable tipster (we can give you a pass for POTUS 2016...everyone has a bad day right)JackW said:Just to give PBers a heads up.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.
0 -
Utterly tipping it down here in Surrey/Hampshire. Sure to put a dampener on canvessing etc0
-
I'd be surprised they been v Labour of recent historyrcs1000 said:
Didn't the FT recommend voting Conservative this time around?SquareRoot said:
Well they would say that.. and it's printed in a Labour paperwilliamglenn said:0 -
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.RochdalePioneers said:
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
0 -
A nation waits.... my further Tory Maj betting will likely too!JackW said:Just to give PBers a heads up.
Over the next day and a bit I'll be trawling through my party contacts to get an appreciation from them of the state of play. As in previous election years I'll report back. I hope to post that report late tomorrow afternoon or early evening.
Sadly some of my old contacts have gone to the supreme counting centre in the sky. Some are new to the world of the Jacobite insurgency.0 -
Kevin Schofield @PolhomeEditor 4 mins4 minutes ago
Labour say Diane Abbott is "unwell" and won't be able to go on Women's Hour this morning as planned. Pity.
0 -
AIUI one is supposed to carry out normal activities during Ramadan; just not eat or drink during daylight. And even that requirement doesn’t apply to pregnant or nursing mothers or those taking medication.Nemtynakht said:
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?Jonathan said:
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!0 -
Dyed...if I were you I'd nip down the Alexandra and spend that fiver on a nice ale and a pack of cheese and onion crisps...you only live once right...dyedwoolie said:Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately)
I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet
Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s
Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan
SNP in Edinburgh South
Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale
Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself.
I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.0 -
Seems so! Is it standard practice?nunu said:
Fake News!isam said:Do news channels always do this?
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/8714872987219927050 -
Mr Neil must resume his campaign to restore Diane's good health0
-
DA is worse than TM
She should just hide like TM is doing
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/general-election-2017-seats-watch-131425220 -
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.Casino_Royale said:
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.RochdalePioneers said:
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?0 -
No and plenty will but for the more observant, there is supposed to be a disengagement from worldly matters. But as has been pointed out, it is a red herring in any case.Nemtynakht said:
Is there a specific religious reason why it being Ramadan would prevent you voting during the fast?Jonathan said:
Broadcasters get first prediction fed to them at 945 by Curtis. I believe it continuously updates behind the scenes with each report, but that is managed in strict privacy.DecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!0 -
"Bury South, Bolton North East, Worsley and Eccles South, Heywood and Middleton, and Oldham East and Saddleworth are all considered to be in danger by veteran campaigners.
However in Stalybridge and Hyde, initially also considered a likely loss, activists are growing more relaxed.
Meanwhile in the student heartland of Manchester Withington, which the Liberal Democrats had been hoping to win back, Labour are now confident of victory."
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/general-election-2017-seats-watch-131425220 -
It's a bit weird how this election has almost become a referendum on the opposition party.IanB2 said:Boris doing a good job of making a pillock of himself on R4. The answer to every question is to rant on about Corbyn and dodge the question about what the government will do; five times he has mentioned Corbyn now.
edit/ six0 -
I'm a lager drinker Tyson my mucker. Pint of Carling for me in that fine establishment. Used to enjoy Coors Light in the BV but they've inexplicably discontinued it leaving only rancid Amstel for session drinking.tyson said:
Dyed...if I were you I'd nip down the Alexandra and spend that fiver on a nice ale and a pack of cheese and onion crisps...you only live once right...dyedwoolie said:Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately)
I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet
Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s
Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan
SNP in Edinburgh South
Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale
Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself.
I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
Nonetheless the pony is written off, and some of my bets will come in
0 -
IanB2 said:
and voting doesn't involve eating or drinking anyway.Blue_rog said:
Naughty post - I thought all muslims used postal votes, completed by the elders!timmo said:
Sunset in london 21.17 on Thursday..doesnt give that group a whoke lot of time to get out..will be even later in the northern psrts of the countryDecrepitJohnL said:
I have a theory about the exit poll -- or at least, I'm thinking of having a theory. To announce the numbers at 10pm, the pollsters must stop counting at (wild guess) 8pm, which means they might miss a late surge. This year there is an unusual factor that might (another wild guess) produce late votes from one section of the community -- Ramadan, if (a third wild guess) it means muslim voters are more likely to vote after sunset rather than vote throughout the day as normal.Scrapheap_as_was said:
For the first time I've started nibbling on Tory Maj on Betfair - just under £1k on it at 1.30.DecrepitJohnL said:Pb Tories should keep an eye on the betting markets today, as the Survation poll might mean bookies lengthen the prices against the Tory landslide they clearly expect.
Should enhance the emotions at 10.00pm on Thursday and the exit poll release on the first bong!
Used to in Jack W’s heyday didn’t it? Free beer for all supporters?0 -
The story of the election is of a Government that thinks it should be given another five years of majority power solely because the alternative is Mr Corbyn. That'll probably be where it ends up, but people haven't liked the complacency and arrogance of it.rkrkrk said:
It's a bit weird how this election has almost become a referendum on the opposition party.IanB2 said:Boris doing a good job of making a pillock of himself on R4. The answer to every question is to rant on about Corbyn and dodge the question about what the government will do; five times he has mentioned Corbyn now.
edit/ six0 -
Not in just one direction. Whatever makes good TV. This twitter thread makes you pause for thought:isam said:Do news channels always do this?
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/871487298721992705
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/871829837262061568
0 -
Mr. Slackbladder, slightly grotty here too, and some heavy rain forecast for polling day.0
-
I think the evidence on the ground is stacking up for a TMICIPM big maj approaching landslide.
The Manchester Evening News report.
The Lab Uncut one
My own in NE Derbyshire.
Could well be bed at 22.05 on Thursday for me.0 -
"Went to bed with Hilary and woke up with Trump".camel said:I'm certainly not trusting exit polls.
I went to bed when Remain looked certain, I awoke with a Brexit.
I went to bed with Hilary, woke up with Trump.
I literally will not dare to go to bed on Thursday/Friday.
Both sounded traumatising.0 -
I've voted Green instead of spoiling the ballot before - they aren't going to win and it is important that they get some votes. I voted this way in 2015 as I felt not alot was at stake.HYUFD said:
Green is at least better than a wasted voteChris said:
The other option for me would have been the Greens. I have sometimes voted Green in the past, and haven't heard much from them this time. But last time I was persuaded by the argument that they were trying to have their cake and eat it with the anti-austerity stuff.HYUFD said:
Surely there is a minor party you can vote for e.g. Greens, Young People's Party, UKIP even Monster Raving Loonies? Spoiling your ballot always seems a bit of a copout, the main parties will take absolutely no notice and the smaller parties could do with the support but that is your right I supposeThe_Apocalypse said:
Can't say a I blame you for that one. A few of my friends have spoiled their ballot too.Chris said:Well, anyway, I'm very happy with my decision to spoil my ballot paper.
Both Labour and the Tories are shamelessly trying to use the terror attacks for political advantage. The Lib Dem response to the "dementia tax" is contemptible.
It's difficult to believe turnout will be high, when the electorate is faced with this pathetic bunch.0 -
Tomorrow I will be visiting the local M&S to stock up on Thursday night essential supplies - the question is how many boxes of popcorn.... it could be none or it could be a shelf of the stuff.
Seems ridiculous that expectations are either a HP or a very decent Tory Maj with little else likely.0 -
Flying the Islamic state flag should mean banged up
"Last year Khuram appeared in a Channel 4 documentary, The Jihadis Next Door, with other Choudary followers. He was seen praying in front of the black flag of Islam, unfurled in Regent’s Park by a group of young men in Middle Eastern-style clothing."
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/killers-brother-given-money-by-police-to-fight-extremism-0fbqjjght0 -
I think there's a case for hybrid phone and online panel polls. The two methods have their different but potentially complementary deficiencies. Online panels because they are self selecting and phone polls because certain demographics are hard to reach. For example, you could start with a phone poll, fill in the gaps with the panel and then cross check with the phone poll. Once you are happy with your model you then use cheaper online polls to identify trends.0
-
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/871838925840683009AlastairMeeks said:
Not in just one direction. Whatever makes good TV. This twitter thread makes you pause for thought:isam said:Do news channels always do this?
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/871487298721992705
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/871829837262061568
Well, yes, I've complained many times about scumbags like Choudary being given air time on This Week.0 -
When the country starts earning it rather than, as currently, borrowing it?Bromptonaut said:
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.Casino_Royale said:
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.RochdalePioneers said:
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?0 -
We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.0 -
I would have put the £5 on the LibDems in Argyll & Bute. If you look at the Holyrood elections last year, it was the LDs that surged there, up 13.6% and comfortably outpolling the Conservatives.dyedwoolie said:Morning all. Feeling energised now we are in the closing straight despite summer flu striking me and my beloved hard! Betting wise I've sat out of the seat markets as I think it's either going to be HP or landslide and can't work out which way to jump! The bets I have are small bets (have agreed with the partner I won't beat on seat totals and wont stake more than £20 this time as I've been losing money like water lately)
I have a quid on UKIP at 10s in south thanet
Two quid on Labour in Norwich North at 12s
Small bets on Tories in Moray, Argyll and Bute, Ayr Carrick and Cumnock and Banff and Buchan
SNP in Edinburgh South
Tories in Sheffield Hallam and Westmorland and Lonsdale
Covered a few scenarios to give some interest on the night outside the result itself.
I've got a fiver left to bet - will bet five long shots at a quid each. Any tips welcome! Individual seats only.
The local elections last month saw both parties make gains, but with independents dominating the council, it's hard to come to definitive conclusions.0 -
Valid arguments, except that Tories seem to have moved on from putting economic stability and balancing the books first, since they too now put the politics of Brexit ahead of their economic credibility. And the long-term plan to eliminate the deficit is now so long-term that it isn't a plan.CarlottaVance said:
When the country starts earning it rather than, as currently, borrowing it?Bromptonaut said:
You've had 7 years and the Tory manifesto promises 5 more years of cuts.Casino_Royale said:
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.RochdalePioneers said:
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.
When exactly is the additional investment of which you speak going to become manifest?0 -
It's more Choudray timing the rally than the to organising it though isn't it? In hindsight it does seem ridiculous to have him on tv debates thoughAlastairMeeks said:
Not in just one direction. Whatever makes good TV. This twitter thread makes you pause for thought:isam said:Do news channels always do this?
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/871487298721992705
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/8718298372620615680 -
TBF you impugned Mr Pioneer's morals first.Casino_Royale said:
I'm totally sick and tired of people like you impugning upon my morals, ethics and basic human decency just because we happen to support a different polirival party. Attitudes like yours explain why there are just so many shy Tories.RochdalePioneers said:
Looks far better than I suspect it does in the Tory gutter. Treating people with basic decency and humanity used to be a key Tory principle as well. Its not me that found false morals, its the Conservative Party that lost them.Casino_Royale said:Tell me, how does the rest of the world look to you from up there on your high horse?
You should save this sort of moralising drivel for Facebook, where I'm sure you'd get plenty of 'likes' to give you that warm fuzzy feeling.
There is nothing unhuman about ensuring the nation is solvent, the economy strong, and the overall level of wealth in the nation growing.
In fact, that's the only way the additional investment in public services you crave can be sustainably achieved. Anything else is hogwash.
You will lose on Thursday, and deservedly so, for daring to take Britain back to the stone ages and insulting the integrity of almost half its electorate who, thankfully, have far more common sense than you do.0 -
When discussing polling and the modifications performed to the raw data, Lusser's Law should always be considered:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lusser's_law
IMV the more modifications that are applied to raw polling data in order to overcome biases in that data, the more random the answer you get.0 -
Blimey - just gone back to betfair and Tory Maj has come in from 1.31 (my last bet) to now be 1.23.0
-
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!Roger said:We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.0 -
Problem is, you then get those who say that banning the IRA from TV didn't do much good.isam said:
It's more Choudray timing the rally than the to organising it though isn't it? In hindsight it does seem ridiculous to have him on tv debates thoughAlastairMeeks said:
Not in just one direction. Whatever makes good TV. This twitter thread makes you pause for thought:isam said:Do news channels always do this?
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/871487298721992705
https://twitter.com/mrjammyjamjar3/status/8718298372620615680 -
I chucked a few bags at T May PM after the election. I daren't look at the prices !Scrapheap_as_was said:Blimey - just gone back to betfair and Tory Maj has come in from 1.31 (my last bet) to now be 1.23.
0 -
Ted Heath? You mean the band leader, and not that politician chappy, I assume.Leedsprinter said:
Turn the clock back. Corbyn's manifesto reminds me of Ted Heath's Britain. I was there!Roger said:We have a divided enough society as it is. How can someone vote for a party which wants to turn the clock back to a time when we had grammar schools and secondary moderns and someone who wants to gratuitously bring back fox hunting? I mean what does it tell you?
Corbyn Abbott and McDonnell might not add up to a coherent government but at least their hearts and sensibilities are slightly more in the right place than Theresa May's.
I've been going backwards and forwards like a see-saw but her last insult to our (soon to be ex) EU partners who still have their flags at half mast and the fog cleared.
Remember him well.0 -
SquareRoot said:
I'd be surprised they been v Labour of recent historyrcs1000 said:
Didn't the FT recommend voting Conservative this time around?SquareRoot said:
Well they would say that.. and it's printed in a Labour paperwilliamglenn said:
The FT recommended a Tory vote in 2010, 2015 and 2017.0 -
Tory landslide. Any spare popcorn can be consumed while watching Labour Party civil war afterward.Scrapheap_as_was said:Tomorrow I will be visiting the local M&S to stock up on Thursday night essential supplies - the question is how many boxes of popcorn.... it could be none or it could be a shelf of the stuff.
Seems ridiculous that expectations are either a HP or a very decent Tory Maj with little else likely.
0 -
First thing I heard in my office this morning was "what has she done now"
I assumed they were talking about one of their colleagues, turns out this bunch of people I have never heard discussing politics were discussing Diane Abbott's latest car crash.
Lord Carlile QC the independent reviewer of anti terror legislation has said "‘The notion that she could lead the Home Office should leave us all in frozen apprehension.’
Quite
0 -
Alastair: would it help your decision to move to a different constituency, where the local LibDems believe completely different things to what those in your current constituency think?AlastairMeeks said:I'm still thinking about whether I vote and if so for whom. I'll probably decide in the polling booth. The options are Lib Dems; Green; and spoiling my ballot paper.
:-)0
