politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CO

rcs1000 said:

Re Cornwall, it hasn't been such a bad result for the LDs as I had been posting. It looks like they will end up on 35 councillors (36 if you include their dead candidate in Bodmin St Petroc), which is +1 on 2013.

The Conservatives have had the better night, going from 31 to 47, with UKIP being the main losers (-8).

Tories already at 43, with a Con and UKIP seat still to declare, so that may go up to 45!

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%

LD 'actual votes cast' were up about 40%, which tallies with your figures; say 11.3-11.5%.

Yes, looks plausible

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sion Simon went to Oxford?

That explains so much.

Well, they gave Diane Abbott a degree, so...

I assume that's a joke. I'm sure she must have gone to an ex-poly.

nunu said:

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

DavidL said:

Final score in Scotland 605 Unionists, 450 Indys.

SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.

That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.

If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.

Lots of ifs, though.

I wonder when the Conservatives last had 8 Glasgow councillors (probably early eighties).

Eight! they had one last time. Whats interesting is how many seats they gained in poor areas. simillar to results in England where tories are having the biggest swings in working class areas. Working class tories are well and truely a thing once more.

As Sion says: "we don't share their core Labour values with the strength we should".

And he would know, having presumably been out knocking on doors, unlike the kids in momentum who still think Corbyn is on course to be PM and introduce the Five Year Plan.

SeanT said:

felix said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/livvyjohn/status/860529641987203073

Ouch!

The trend is the same, for the SNP, everywhere.

Their last hope for indyref2 any time soon is if Brexit is a monstrous disaster. But even then there might be a desire to huddle together, with their fellow Brits, rather than take even more risk....

Tories on course to win 10 seats from the SNP, possibly.

So the Conservatives won 4 out of 6 Mayoral elections, then. Didn't see that coming.

Corbynism continues to sweep the nation.

Sandpit said:

Sion Simon making a prat of himself on Sky, blaming his opponent for good fundraising and his own party for turning off voters.

Has he blamed the Zionists for the rigged system yet?

Scott_P said:

Saltire said:

On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.

I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...

Any news on how many of the the ex Kipper SCon candidates got elected today?

Just had Vince Cable and his entourage canvassing in my road. Two of his helpers knocked and asked who i would be supporting and then whether I was for leave or remain. I thought that was a bit blunt so I said "I'm for leave now".
Oh and of course that I would be voting for Tania!

Theuniondivvie said:

Och, don't worry, I'm sure that won't complicate Unionist tactical voting in the slightest.

You know, I don't really think it will

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sion Simon went to Oxford?

That explains so much.

Diane Abbott went to Cambridge....

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860533193795043328

TW1R64 said:

Just had Vince Cable and his entourage canvassing in my road. Two of his helpers knocked and asked who i would be supporting and then whether I was for leave or remain. I thought that was a bit blunt so I said "I'm for leave now".
Oh and of course that I would be voting for Tania!

Like!

Carolus_Rex said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

rottenborough said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sion Simon went to Oxford?

That explains so much.

Well, they gave Diane Abbott a degree, so...

I assume that's a joke. I'm sure she must have gone to an ex-poly.

Don't tell Mr Eagles but she went to Cambridge actually.

Like I said...

Scott_P said:

Saltire said:

On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.

I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...

...Which one, she has been Labour and Conservative in the past.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860533193795043328

How do you not even get a Third in PPE?

Carolus_Rex said:

nunu said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860528582757634050

Now I will take the piss out of Sion Simon as enthusiastically as anyone, but that's just mean.

The fact that either of them got into Oxford is frankly a mystery.

nunu said:

AndyJS said:

Trying to follow Sion Simon's argument that the Tories had "spent millions in their areas" to get a higher turnout in Solihull.

but didn't he get hammered in dudley? That's not a tory area, is it?

It's a divided area, Dudley itself in the north and Stourbridge and Halesowen in the south which is more Tory.

not_on_fire said:

With UKIP on course for zero seats in the GE and losing all their MEPs after Brexit, that UKIP councillor might be their only elected politician by 2019!

If Brexit truly is signed and sealed by then it'd be reminiscent of those Japanese soldiers still fighting the war on remote islands into the 70's.

Seriously though, after this is there not a danger of a nigh on total UKIP vote implosion on June 8th. I mean what the hell is the point in the present circumstance?

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/860533193795043328

Clearly, politics falls into the same camp.

That only leaves economics.

Scott_P said:

@GuardianAnushka: Lord (Jack) McConnell - former Scottish first minister - warns that its possible Labour decline in Scotland cd hit parts of Wales/England.

No s*** Sherlock.

Sandpit said:

Sion Simon making a prat of himself on Sky, blaming his opponent for good fundraising and his own party for turning off voters.

Well he has a point about his own party turning off voters.
Labour still in denial about the Corbyn toxicity, "We need more time for people to see and hear Jeremy, then they will change their mind"

Theuniondivvie said:

Scott_P said:

Saltire said:

On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.

I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...

Any news on how many of the the ex Kipper SCon candidates got elected today?

Rather well it would seem.

https://twitter.com/aitchison_david/status/860511757940469761

Of course I'd forgotten about Braden Northumbrian Party to SLab to SCon Davey!
Well done on getting elected today son, your heroic consistency will be a boon to the political arena.

Nemtynakht said:

Wasn't Corbyn supposed to sweep Labour to power in Scotland?

In the Momentum dream. Meanwhile, in the real world...

SeanT said:

So here are the final scores, on the local election doors. Did any punter get anywhere near this, in terms of prediction?

https://twitter.com/Politico_Daily/status/860535710075334656

I think Mark Senior was close.



Hahahahhahahahahahahaha......

Three seats left and we are done

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.

Chris_A said:

I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.

It'd just take a bit longer

Does Corbyn seriously believe that Labour winning Liverpool is impressive and shows that Labour can win across the whole country?

TOPPING said:

Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..

OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.

The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.

BBC1 John Piennar:

"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..

OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.

The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.

I know every single poster has noted this over the past few months, but when you think of the extraordinary transformation Jezza leaving now would bring about, it makes you weep*.

*joy/sorrow as appropriate.

SeanT said:

Black_Rook said:

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

It's a stunning result for a party in power.

I don't see how the LDs take comfort from this, unless there successes are concentrated in clumps corresponding to GE seats.

Mr Sandpit,

"Sion Simon making a prat of himself on Sky, blaming his opponent for good fundraising and his own party for turning off voters."

I was surprised that no one mentioned Simon's comments on the voters' comments. The message wasn't about spend. It sounded much more straightforward. Something along the lines "I've been a Labour voters all my life, but I'm going to sit on my hands this time if that twat Corbyn stays." That explains the higher turnout among Tory voters.

Probably too intellectual for IDS, he really is a thicko.

I'm sure this has already been pointed out but in Scotland:

SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors

and soon SNP lose MPs.

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..

OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.

The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.

Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.

Sandpit said:

MikeL said:

BBC1 John Piennar:

"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.

You are presuming Team Twat have any idea what they are doing. I think it is pretty clear they haven't got the sort of Messina bod telling them Mr Smith at #27 is best targetted via Facebook ad between 7-9pm.

chestnut said:

MikeL said:

BBC1 John Piennar:

"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"

About 60 seats.

On a positive note, there’s plenty of time for them to redraft their CVs for back in civvy street.

CommanderShepard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..

OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.

The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.

Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.

I'd say for the longer term health it may be a better thing, since we may end up with a Lab or replacement party living other than on the moon.

Nemtynakht said:

Wasn't Corbyn supposed to sweep Labour to power in Scotland?

Kez has been tweeting that this result shows that only SLab can defeat the SNP at the GE. Bit early to be drinking, surely?

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.

In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.

Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?

No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.

In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.

Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?

Indeed.

It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.

And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.

murali_s said:

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.

In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.

Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?

No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.

Precisely why they have no chance in 5 years, and probably not even 10. Who is this leader? He/she simply does not exist.

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.

In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.

Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?

I'm incapable of getting too excited about these results (admittedly, this is probably because I'm a natural pessimist more than anything else.)

I've stuck my neck out and already made my prediction: Con 387, Lab 178. I just don't think the bottom is going to drop completely out of the Labour vote, even accounting for the fact that their performance has been abysmal pretty much everywhere outside of Manchester, Liverpool and (parts of) Wales, and in the latter case the local elections are full of independent candidates, and the performance of local Labour councils backed by the Welsh leadership (which is vastly less toxic than that in London) may be a great deal better than what their Parliamentary candidates are capable of achieving.

There are still no shortage of voters for whom Labour (despite Corbyn, or sometimes because of him) is either a positively attractive prospect, or whom continue to vote according to cultural/brand loyalty. Frankly, I don't even feel completely comfortable with forecasting a majority in three figures, although I think about 80-90 at least ought to be a safe bet.

Talk of the Tories topping 400 and Labour getting smashed to smithereens just sounds too good to be true. And when something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

ydoethur said:

Black_Rook said:

All results in: GB

Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13

I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.

In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.

Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?

22 years? No. Just over 20 years ago the Tories lost more than half their MPs and were down to their last county council. 10 years later Sion was confident enough to write his now infomous piece on Labour's next victory. Their time will come again and in 10 years time the political landscape will be very different. Will they win in 2022 (or whenever the next election is)? Probably not. In 2027? I wouldn't bet against it. In fact it will be very unhealthy for there not to be a viable government in waiting by then.

CommanderShepard said:

AlastairMeeks said:

TOPPING said:

Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..

OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.

The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.

Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.

However a new opposition will emerge, nature abhors a vacuum etc. You are correct, Labour have only themselves to blame.