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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CO

SystemSystem Posts: 11,704
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the votes moved to UKIP and how they’ve moved away with CON taking more than they lost

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  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 2017
    FPT:

    Darlington result from the Tees Valley mayoral race being interpreted as meaning Labour is likely to lose Darlington to the Conservatives.

    Darlington is 34th of the Conservative target list, with a Labour majority of about 7.7% and over 5,000 Ukip voters available. If they managed to win everything up to and including Darlington, that alone would be enough to bump their majority up to about 80 (though before taking into account any possible losses.)

    In other news, seat count so far:

    Con +502
    Lab -332
    LD -30
    SNP -21
    PC +35
    Ukip -139
    Green +3

    The Tories have now easily surpassed Stephen Fisher's prediction (see previous thread,) and Labour are also doing even worse than predicted. Not sure how many results left to come, but it's a pretty dramatic result.

    Edit: FIRST! Like Andy Burnham
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    2nd like the SCons.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,505
    Andy Burnham wins surprisingly easily, in the end.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cookie said:

    Andy Burnham wins surprisingly easily, in the end.

    Higher share than Rotheram got in Liverpool.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Note: Ukip in Greater Manchester mayoral race beaten into 6th by Greens and English Democrats.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Afternoon all.

    Progressive alliance not doing so well then...
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    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    Norwich results seem to confirm my prediction yesterday that Clive Lewis will be safe with a fair margin of comfort.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Nice map of Edinburgh for the Tories:

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/508868/thread
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    AndyJS said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy Burnham wins surprisingly easily, in the end.

    Higher share than Rotheram got in Liverpool.
    That's very impressive by Burnham, Liverpool is much more Labour territory.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Black_Rook said:

    Note: Ukip in Greater Manchester mayoral race beaten into 6th by Greens and English Democrats.

    The UKIP candidate had a very bad week, I'm not sure he campaigned much at all in the last week.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Scotland

    LOL
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Cookie said:

    Andy Burnham wins surprisingly easily, in the end.

    Celebrity boost in what is still, overall, a very safe Labour area. Proof, for anybody expecting Corbyn to result in annihilation for Labour, that this is not going to happen.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited May 2017
    FPT
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Tory GM mayor candidate humiliated by Burnham in his own Trafford patch which could be one of the big shocks of these elections.

    Burnham far far overperforming Labour GE voteshare across GM from what i can see. Looks like much of UKIP vote went to him.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.

    I think it's one of those things, based on a sub 30% turnout.

    I know the Tories are going to crank up the Corbyn mansion tax in those areas.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,008
    Miss Vance, quite like that Flint tweet.

    (My French is rubbish, but should it be 'parlez'?).
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.

    The trouble with those marginals for Labour is that Burnham is not standing in them.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    I am stunned - The North East Party have won a seat on Durham CC - Passfield Ward.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    I'm pretty sure John Lewis has done it in the WM
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,014
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.

    Yes, every borough including Bolton, Stockport, Bury as well. Name recognition must be part of it. How many (even on here) could name his opponent without Googling?
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    To be clear I didn't expect Burnham not to win, I did think it would go to a second round though
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scotland

    LOL

    "There aren't any Tories in Scotland'

    malcolmg
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    If not already mentioned, Steven Woolfe on r5 today: "Asked by BBC Radio 5 live’s Emma Barnett if he would vote for Paul Nuttall or Theresa May, the independent MEP said: "I've got no choice - it would have to be Theresa May.”"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-39799138
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,008
    Mr. Rentool, are they akin to Yorkshire First?
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616

    Ha. She took it seriously enough to tweet a map?! Silly season is usually after the politics, not during...
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444

    FPT:
    sarissa said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got an idea of Percentage of first preference votes in Scotland yet?

    Genuine question - how do you allow in this for a differing number of candidates in the wards? Say the SNP have an average of 1.4 candidates per ward and SCON have 1.2, won't that distort the simple total % result?
    The S in STV stands for single - each voter has one vote. Therefore the party vote shares reflect the first preference choices of the voters, assuming people vote along party lines, irrespective of how many candidates each party puts up.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Pong said:

    I'm pretty sure John Lewis has done it.

    Sauce ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    How long has this been here? :o
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Tory win - tick
    England cricket win - tick
    Spurs win??
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.

    I doubt if it means much for the GE. Boris won London, twice - didn't mean the Tories were primed for a sudden surge in Tower Hamlets.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    I'll post this again from earlier. The 67 labour held seats where the Con + UKIP was greater in 2015. No other swing needed! The number is the total number above the labour total.

    Newcastle-under-Lyme 6602
    Mansfield 6535
    Walsall North 6185
    Stoke-on-Trent South 5759
    North East Derbyshire 5748
    Dagenham and Rainham 5512
    Wakefield 5249
    Hartlepool 5232
    Dewsbury 5198
    Halifax 5193
    Dudley North 4932
    Hyndburn 4754
    Stoke-on-Trent North 4706
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 4667
    Birmingham, Northfield 4597
    Barrow and Furness 4275
    City of Chester 4055
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 4015
    Bridgend 3984
    Heywood and Middleton 3969
    Gedling 3944
    Alyn and Deeside 3917
    Great Grimsby 3877
    Eltham 3788
    Ilford North 3766
    Bolton North East 3740
    Rother Valley 3648
    Copeland 3584
    Wolverhampton South West 3509
    Bishop Auckland 3507
    Wrexham 3241
    Delyn 3220
    Scunthorpe 3195
    Bristol East 3172
    Clwyd South 3078
    Enfield North 3047
    Blackpool South 3028
    Batley and Spen 3023
    Workington 2852
    Lancaster and Fleetwood 2795
    Brentford and Isleworth 2738
    Newport West 2624
    Bradford South 2607
    Coventry North West 2592
    Oldham East and Saddleworth 2555
    Coventry South 2521
    Chorley 2465
    Wirral West 2355
    Darlington 2234
    Hove 2029
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 1829
    Newport East 1761
    Southampton, Test 1756
    Worsley and Eccles South 1742
    Ealing Central and Acton 1652
    Ynys Môn 1643
    Birmingham, Edgbaston 1448
    Bury South 1377
    Ashfield 1330
    Bristol South 1253
    Don Valley 1078
    Stalybridge and Hyde 1034
    Wolverhampton North East 1029
    Birmingham, Erdington 911
    West Bromwich West 623
    Walsall South 533
    Hampstead and Kilburn 394
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Dadge said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616

    Ha. She took it seriously enough to tweet a map?! Silly season is usually after the politics, not during...
    The significant change is that it is not so many years since the map would have shown German as the second language throughout much of Central and Eastern Europe. And French in Romania.
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    JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Black_Rook said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.

    I doubt if it means much for the GE. Boris won London, twice - didn't mean the Tories were primed for a sudden surge in Tower Hamlets.
    Agree with this. Burnham was a personal vote, same for Boris. He would have won standing as an Independent. Burnham won't be on the ballot paper in the GE, but Corbyn's Labour certainly will.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    On topic: Which is why I've just bet on or topped up my bets on the Tories in Hartlepool, Great Grimsby, Stoke-on-Trent North, Penistone & Stockbridge, and Workington, at various odds from 1.44 to 1.67.
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    edited May 2017
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/860504685928644608
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,316
    edited May 2017
    Surely other side of coin re Burnham is that Lab vote holding up in very safe Lab areas means they'll be wasting higher proportion of votes in safe seats resulting in less efficient vote share - implying they underperform UNS.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    IanB2 said:

    Dadge said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616

    Ha. She took it seriously enough to tweet a map?! Silly season is usually after the politics, not during...
    The significant change is that it is not so many years since the map would have shown German as the second language throughout much of Central and Eastern Europe. And French in Romania.
    Although the map won't show it, the proficiency of Germans in English is quite astounding. An entire nation where the median person is probably conversational in another language. Even more so among younger people.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616

    Surprised to see French classified as a foreign language in Belgium. Is English now their official language ?
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616

    when did we take back Donegal?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Black_Rook said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    Never thought Burnham would win such a massive landslide 63% vote. Stunned.

    What this means for the marginals here next month God knows but it's the shock of these elections by miles. Even in his local patch in Trafford the Tory candidate was humiliated.

    I doubt if it means much for the GE. Boris won London, twice - didn't mean the Tories were primed for a sudden surge in Tower Hamlets.
    People like to have a mayor that they have heard of. Burnham may not have celebrity status but on a 20% turnout surely was the only candidate with any significant name recognition.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Nice map of Edinburgh for the Tories:

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/508868/thread

    Something a bit familiar about that pic.

    Image and video hosting by TinyPic

    Red is most deprived, Blue is least
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    edit
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Cookie said:

    Andy Burnham wins surprisingly easily, in the end.

    I think name recognition is very important in these types of contest and Burnham certainly has that. Congratulations to him - despite him being a bit vacuous he is one of the Labour politicians I respect.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/860507344295350272

    Good news for my bank balance if that's the top of his expectations.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    edited May 2017
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/860457891924463616

    Surprised to see French classified as a foreign language in Belgium. Is English now their official language ?
    For Flemings, French is a second language.

    Edit: the converse isn't true though - the Walloons don't bother learning Flemish.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Alanbrooke said:

    Scotland

    LOL

    Scots Tories still a distance behind SNP on seat count, but also well ahead of Labour. Tories and Greens the only Scottish parties making net gains of council seats so far.

    Don't know what that stacks up to in terms of share of the first pref vote, although I dare say that would only give us very limited information re: the GE anyway.

    Still waiting for West Mids mayor result, suggests count may be very, very close.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    CarlottaVance said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Scotland

    LOL

    "There aren't any Tories in Scotland'

    malcolmg
    Any sign of Malcolm ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Honk that klaxon

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,311
    Which are the marginals in the Greater Manchester Combined Authority area? Could be worth a flutter on a few Labour holds.

    Interesting that Burnham was runner-up to Corbyn in 2015, with about a third of his vote, yet got 63% here. I'm no statistician, but that does definitely mean Jez will win the General Election with a whopping 189% of the vote... the maths don't lie.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    edited May 2017
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    sarissa said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got an idea of Percentage of first preference votes in Scotland yet?

    Genuine question - how do you allow in this for a differing number of candidates in the wards? Say the SNP have an average of 1.4 candidates per ward and SCON have 1.2, won't that distort the simple total % result?
    There are two ways of doing it: highest vote method or average vote method.
    Not for STV. Those are the methods for multi-member FPTnP elections. STV you just add up all the votes, since each voter only has one.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Pong said:

    I'm pretty sure John Lewis has done it.

    Sauce ?
    https://www.wmcaelects.co.uk/results/

    There would have to be a pretty heavy split in Brum for it to go to Simon.

    The 2nd prefs in solihull split quite evenly despite the heavy 1st pref bias toward street.

    Which makes sense, if you think about it.

    It's tight, and I wouldn't back street at over 90%, but I don't think there are enough votes left for simon.

    i might be wrong of course!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Street unbackable on Betfair.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    16:03
    Round 2: Sion Simon ahead in Coventry

    COVENTRY

    Siôn Simon 3,236

    Andy Street 2,213

    Total rejected at the second stage 694

    15:59
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Solihull

    SOLIHULL

    Sion Simon 2,256

    Andy Street 2,981

    Total rejected at the second stage 741

    15:58
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Walsall

    WALSALL

    Siôn Simon 1,811

    Andy Street 2,186

    Total rejected at the second stage 602

    15:56
    Round 2: Sion Simon wins Sandwell

    SANDWELL

    Siôn Simon 2,476

    Andy Street 2,260

    Total rejected at the second stage 911
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Rentool, are they akin to Yorkshire First?

    Yes, but less likely to be mistaken for a bus company.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    Rhubarb said:

    16:03
    Round 2: Sion Simon ahead in Coventry

    COVENTRY

    Siôn Simon 3,236

    Andy Street 2,213

    Total rejected at the second stage 694

    15:59
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Solihull

    SOLIHULL

    Sion Simon 2,256

    Andy Street 2,981

    Total rejected at the second stage 741

    15:58
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Walsall

    WALSALL

    Siôn Simon 1,811

    Andy Street 2,186

    Total rejected at the second stage 602

    15:56
    Round 2: Sion Simon wins Sandwell

    SANDWELL

    Siôn Simon 2,476

    Andy Street 2,260

    Total rejected at the second stage 911

    Looking at that I am guessing that Simon is going to win more transfers from Birmingham?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
    Isn't it boundary changes, so changes from notional?

    Or am I talking shite?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    sarissa said:

    Alistair said:

    Anyone got an idea of Percentage of first preference votes in Scotland yet?

    Genuine question - how do you allow in this for a differing number of candidates in the wards? Say the SNP have an average of 1.4 candidates per ward and SCON have 1.2, won't that distort the simple total % result?
    There are two ways of doing it: highest vote method or average vote method.
    Not for STV. Those are the methods for multi-member FPTnP elections. STV you just add up all the votes, since each voter only has one.
    You're right.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
    Isn't it boundary changes, so changes from notional?

    Or am I talking shite?
    There were boundary changes
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    That sky projection doesn't feel right. Surely the Scottish locals suggest the Snp will lose more than 2 seats. Suggests Thrasher doubts there will be more than 1 or 2 Tory gains?
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,008
    Mr. Rentool, bah, hope they (and Yorkshire First) don't get any more traction.

    I feel now is the time to reveal I backed Simon to win the mayoralty.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    Commons projection via Mike Thrasher @SkyNews @adamboultonSKY Con 349 Lab 215 LD 9 Ukip 0 SNP 54 Other 23 Con majority 48

    Twould be a little disappointing.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Nemtynakht said:

    I'll post this again from earlier. The 67 labour held seats where the Con + UKIP was greater in 2015. No other swing needed! The number is the total number above the labour total.

    Newcastle-under-Lyme 6602
    Mansfield 6535
    Walsall North 6185
    Stoke-on-Trent South 5759
    North East Derbyshire 5748
    Dagenham and Rainham 5512
    Wakefield 5249
    Hartlepool 5232
    Dewsbury 5198
    Halifax 5193
    Dudley North 4932
    Hyndburn 4754
    Stoke-on-Trent North 4706
    Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 4667
    Birmingham, Northfield 4597
    Barrow and Furness 4275
    City of Chester 4055
    Penistone and Stocksbridge 4015
    Bridgend 3984
    Heywood and Middleton 3969
    Gedling 3944
    Alyn and Deeside 3917
    Great Grimsby 3877
    Eltham 3788
    Ilford North 3766
    Bolton North East 3740
    Rother Valley 3648
    Copeland 3584
    Wolverhampton South West 3509
    Bishop Auckland 3507
    Wrexham 3241
    Delyn 3220
    Scunthorpe 3195
    Bristol East 3172
    Clwyd South 3078
    Enfield North 3047
    Blackpool South 3028
    Batley and Spen 3023
    Workington 2852
    Lancaster and Fleetwood 2795
    Brentford and Isleworth 2738
    Newport West 2624
    Bradford South 2607
    Coventry North West 2592
    Oldham East and Saddleworth 2555
    Coventry South 2521
    Chorley 2465
    Wirral West 2355
    Darlington 2234
    Hove 2029
    Stoke-on-Trent Central 1829
    Newport East 1761
    Southampton, Test 1756
    Worsley and Eccles South 1742
    Ealing Central and Acton 1652
    Ynys Môn 1643
    Birmingham, Edgbaston 1448
    Bury South 1377
    Ashfield 1330
    Bristol South 1253
    Don Valley 1078
    Stalybridge and Hyde 1034
    Wolverhampton North East 1029
    Birmingham, Erdington 911
    West Bromwich West 623
    Walsall South 533
    Hampstead and Kilburn 394

    If I may be so bold, it seems a little OTT to assume that the Conservatives will gobble up the entire Ukip vote. They clearly still have a constituency out there, just one that's too small to get them anywhere much under FPTP, even at local authority level.

    The Ukip-Con migration at the GE could be 50%; possibly, given these local election figures, a little more. That, however, would still be enough to do a lot of damage to Labour.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Bugger me.. finally caught up with the BBC numbers :D
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    edited May 2017
    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
    Were there by elections maybe?

    Edit: ah, boundary changes
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    Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    The Tories only get half the UKIP 2nd preferences in Sandwell. Read into that what you will.
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    RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    IanB2 said:

    Rhubarb said:

    16:03
    Round 2: Sion Simon ahead in Coventry

    COVENTRY

    Siôn Simon 3,236

    Andy Street 2,213

    Total rejected at the second stage 694

    15:59
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Solihull

    SOLIHULL

    Sion Simon 2,256

    Andy Street 2,981

    Total rejected at the second stage 741

    15:58
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Walsall

    WALSALL

    Siôn Simon 1,811

    Andy Street 2,186

    Total rejected at the second stage 602

    15:56
    Round 2: Sion Simon wins Sandwell

    SANDWELL

    Siôn Simon 2,476

    Andy Street 2,260

    Total rejected at the second stage 911

    Looking at that I am guessing that Simon is going to win more transfers from Birmingham?
    Probably. And given it's size then that probably seals the deal.
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    NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    Black_Rook said:

    Cookie said:

    Andy Burnham wins surprisingly easily, in the end.

    Celebrity boost in what is still, overall, a very safe Labour area. Proof, for anybody expecting Corbyn to result in annihilation for Labour, that this is not going to happen.
    I don't the Burnham election will have any earing on the general election - it is a local personality poll. I grew up in Warrington and I would imagine the Tories are holding this back (http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2015/08/07/the-idea-that-jeremy-corbyn-laid-the-foundations-for-peace-in-northern-ireland-is-total-fantasy/) for the final weeks. If that sort of story (written by a labour supporter) is communicated well by the Conservatives I could imagine it would suppress labour turnout.
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,727
    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/860504685928644608

    We need a psephologist to crunch the numbers in their target seats.Doing that for all the parties should give us a good idea of likely gains and losses.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    I think Sion Simon's going to pull it off.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 2017
    felix said:

    Commons projection via Mike Thrasher @SkyNews @adamboultonSKY Con 349 Lab 215 LD 9 Ukip 0 SNP 54 Other 23 Con majority 48

    Twould be a little disappointing.

    I am assuming that this is an attempt to make a hypothetical projection based directly on the PNS. In which case, it is meaningless.

    Edit: I mean, not that any of these projections are any more than guesses, of course...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
    Were there by elections maybe?

    Edit: ah, boundary changes
    Permission to enable smug mode? :D
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Rhubarb said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rhubarb said:

    16:03
    Round 2: Sion Simon ahead in Coventry

    COVENTRY

    Siôn Simon 3,236

    Andy Street 2,213

    Total rejected at the second stage 694

    15:59
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Solihull

    SOLIHULL

    Sion Simon 2,256

    Andy Street 2,981

    Total rejected at the second stage 741

    15:58
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Walsall

    WALSALL

    Siôn Simon 1,811

    Andy Street 2,186

    Total rejected at the second stage 602

    15:56
    Round 2: Sion Simon wins Sandwell

    SANDWELL

    Siôn Simon 2,476

    Andy Street 2,260

    Total rejected at the second stage 911

    Looking at that I am guessing that Simon is going to win more transfers from Birmingham?
    Probably. And given it's size then that probably seals the deal.
    Sion needs 6k lead in 2nd prefs in Bham? Gonna be tough.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SeanT said:

    Phenomenal performance by the SCONES

    https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216

    They could get twenty seats in the GE, perhaps more.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,261
    RobD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
    Were there by elections maybe?

    Edit: ah, boundary changes
    Permission to enable smug mode? :D
    Make it so.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    And UKIP on one seat?.... titters
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alistair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Honk that klaxon

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/860507874761596928

    Why is it SNP -2? They got 18 at the last election.
    Isn't it boundary changes, so changes from notional?

    Or am I talking shite?
    Ah, some wards had extra seats added so it's notional thingies.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,311
    IanB2 said:

    Rhubarb said:

    16:03
    Round 2: Sion Simon ahead in Coventry

    COVENTRY

    Siôn Simon 3,236

    Andy Street 2,213

    Total rejected at the second stage 694

    15:59
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Solihull

    SOLIHULL

    Sion Simon 2,256

    Andy Street 2,981

    Total rejected at the second stage 741

    15:58
    Round 2: Andy Street ahead in Walsall

    WALSALL

    Siôn Simon 1,811

    Andy Street 2,186

    Total rejected at the second stage 602

    15:56
    Round 2: Sion Simon wins Sandwell

    SANDWELL

    Siôn Simon 2,476

    Andy Street 2,260

    Total rejected at the second stage 911

    Looking at that I am guessing that Simon is going to win more transfers from Birmingham?
    Probably, but not overwhelmingly. But it looks to me that Street's lead is holding (strong and) stable at 6k with only Brum and Wolverhampton to reallocate. Birmingham is big of course, but this is looking over - not enough numbers there for Simon even if the remaining transfers are very good.
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    JamesLJamesL Posts: 6
    The Sky Projection is way too low. It assumes that the SNP holds 54 seats in Scotland. Assume the Tories take 10 it will add 20 to the figure. I still think the majority will be 3 figures
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    felix said:

    Commons projection via Mike Thrasher @SkyNews @adamboultonSKY Con 349 Lab 215 LD 9 Ukip 0 SNP 54 Other 23 Con majority 48

    Twould be a little disappointing.

    SNP 54 looks a little optimistic if you ask me. I'd expect something more like 48-49.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    SeanT said:

    Phenomenal performance by the SCONES

    https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216

    They could get twenty seats in the GE, perhaps more.
    Yeah, right. I don't believe the Tories will get 20 seats and I'm a big fan.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    edited May 2017
    .
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    The fact that the West Midlands Mayoral is so close is an indication of Labour getting shellacked at the GE in the West Midlands.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Sion Simon's going to pull it off.

    lol

    It was evens-the-pair IIRC.

    Anyone who took >6/4 on either candidate got themselves a value bet.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    Juncker is determined to makehimself a total prat
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    Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    Pulpstar said:

    Street unbackable on Betfair.

    Needs a swing of 6400 on about 32000 votes to lose. - with everywhere else results pretty close.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    So, what have I missed in Scotland while I've been busy on the English councils? :smiley:
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,715
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Sion Simon's going to pull it off.

    That would be a rather rude way to celebrate victory, if he comes first.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    RobD said:

    So, what have I missed in Scotland while I've been busy on the English councils? :smiley:

    The klaxon broke through over use.
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited May 2017
    RobD said:

    So, what have I missed in Scotland while I've been busy on the English councils? :smiley:

    Seat changes so far:

    SNP -17
    Con +142
    Lab -103
    Ind -22
    LD -2
    Green +2

    Edit: Tories mugging Labour all over the country. They are now the second party on Edinburgh City Council, one seat behind the SNP.
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    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Street 7k ahead with just Bham and Wolverhampton to go.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited May 2017
    Brum 2nd prefs to squeeze.

    James BURN Green Party 9787
    Pete DURNELL UK Independence Party (UKIP) 7537
    Beverley Anne NIELSEN Liberal Democrats 14840
    Graham John STEVENSON Communist 2312

    Wolves

    James BURN Green Party 1794
    Pete DURNELL UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2911
    Beverley Anne NIELSEN Liberal Democrats 1990
    Graham John STEVENSON Communist 570
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    felix said:

    Commons projection via Mike Thrasher @SkyNews @adamboultonSKY Con 349 Lab 215 LD 9 Ukip 0 SNP 54 Other 23 Con majority 48

    Twould be a little disappointing.

    Is this really correct ? I mean based on yesterday's votes. That is not consistent with the polls. That's FPTP for you.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,787
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/860511369342406657
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,444
    RobD said:

    And UKIP on one seat?.... titters

    Burnley. Not too far from Nuttall country. Meanwhile he's pratting about in Lincolnshire when even Hartlepool would have been a better choice.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SeanT said:

    Phenomenal performance by the SCONES

    https://twitter.com/UKGenElect/status/860510031049097216

    True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    edited May 2017
    Disraeli said:

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/860504685928644608

    They're including the local by-elections that'll be run on the 8th.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    SeanT said:

    A reminder of the Rallings Thrasher predictions:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/25/labour-predicted-to-lose-hundreds-of-seats-in-local-elections


    "They forecast nets gains of 115 seats for the Tories and 85 for the Lib Dems, and net losses of 75 for Labour and 105 for Ukip."

    Good guess on UKIP, but whoah elsewhere

    Tories have SO FAR gained 306, the LDs are DOWN by 22, and Labour have lost 141. So far.

    So in terms of seats the Tories are doing almost three times better than expected, Labour almost twice as bad.

    Michael Thrasher was on Sky News just now sounding very cautious about the Tory performance. Maybe that's based on the projected share of the vote rather than seats won.
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