Unionists in Scotland currently 250 + 198 + 67 = 515
Indys 350+ 12 = 362.
Smug.
Thank goodness your drear leader didn't frame the 'No to a second referendum' local elections purely on the basis of votes for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party.
Well done for showing face on this difficult day. Understandably you sound deflated and off colour.
1/ This whole "It's not Labour doing badly, it's the Tories gaining seats because of the UKIP collapse" spin is totally missing the point. 2/ UKIP took votes almost equally from Labour and Tories from 2010-15. Polls said otherwise, but that's one the areas where they were wrong. 3/ I illustrated that here. And if you consider pre-2010 voting, UKIP very likely took more from Labour 4/ So if UKIP implodes, standing still is not neutral. Standing still is a disaster. 5/ Just as importantly, these are the sorts of people whose votes Labour needs if it wants to govern, but has been haemorrhaging since 2005. 6/ Of course, all of this is being viewed through the prism of Brexit. But the roots of it are far deeper. 7/ Ultimately, a broad church of the centre-left has to include socially conservative votes as well as socially liberal ones. 8/8 Which is why Labour's weakness is partly structural - it isn't solely down to the direction the party has taken since 2015.
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
I reckon they'll get a few more than that
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.
It is Farron you should worry about now.
They can win a 140 seat majority without big cities. They just need the medium-sized cities and big towns, on top of their safe seats.
SeanF. I'm guessing when you say "they" in reference to the Tories, rather than "we", it indicates you are still with UKIP?
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
I suspect the forecast to be a bit too clinical , but it is worth remembering that the change from May 2015 is a lot less dramatic than from May 2013 when these seats were last fought. The number of council seats changing hands would be far smaller were we able to use a May 2015 baseline. Beyond that the seats in Scotland and Wales were last fought in May 2012 - which was easily Labour's best year in the last Parliament.
Does the very big vote share for Burnham affect the projected vote share? No one could seriously contemplate Labour getting 62% in Gtr Mcr at a General Election. Given it has the biggest population voting yesterday, does this seriously skew the figures?
Unionists in Scotland currently 250 + 198 + 67 = 515
Indys 350+ 12 = 362.
Smug.
Thank goodness your drear leader didn't frame the 'No to a second referendum' local elections purely on the basis of votes for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party.
A fair point but I am way more of a Unionist than I am a Tory. So I am quite content to put my own spin.
Barry Gardiner must be feeling like a total prat now after calling if for Simon on Sky News. Burnham's result in Manchester won't hide this catastrophe for Labour.
I said last week if Andy Street wins Mrs May is on course for a majority of 150 plus
Hmm. I agree in general, but personally I think some of Street's win is about him as a person, rather than Tory vote: ex John Lewis, obviously got ideas etc etc. Could run a city - he's run a business etc.
Awesome news for the West Midlands, exactly the sort of person we should be encouraging into politics. Well done to Andy and all that worked to get him elected over the past six months.
Considering that there was no chance of letting Corbyn in this election and the Tories have surged in almost everywhere bar Labour ground zeros (Manc., Liverpool, Valleys) I can't imagine how this realistically could have gone much worse for Labour. As a holder of £20 on LDs to be 0-9 at the GE at 10-1 I'm also feeling quite hopeful.
The Conservatives carrying the West Midlands and Teesside are reminiscent of their results in 1976-78, but those were achieved in mid-term by an Opposition, not by the government.
Awesome news for the West Midlands, exactly the sort of person we should be encouraging into politics. Well done to Andy and all that worked to get him elected over the past six months.
And up against exactly the person who shouldn't be.
I said last week if Andy Street wins Mrs May is on course for a majority of 150 plus
Hmm. I agree in general, but personally I think some of Street's win is about him as a person, rather than Tory vote: ex John Lewis, obviously got ideas etc etc. Could run a city - he's run a business etc.
+ a million quid.
He's a decent candidate though. I'll give him his due.
But let's not pretend it wasn't the million quid wot won it for him.
The mayoral elections are the perfect illustration of the toxicity of Corbyn Labour. In all three that went to a second round Labour did not get enough transfers from LibDems and Greens to get over the line.
I said last week if Andy Street wins Mrs May is on course for a majority of 150 plus
Hmm. I agree in general, but personally I think some of Street's win is about him as a person, rather than Tory vote: ex John Lewis, obviously got ideas etc etc. Could run a city - he's run a business etc.
+ a million quid.
He's a decent candidate though. I'll give him his due.
But let's not pretend it wasn't the million quid wot won it for him.
Did Sion Simon not bother campaigning, then? Purely a word of mouth thing, was it?
Considering that there was no chance of letting Corbyn in this election and the Tories have surged in almost everywhere bar Labour ground zeros (Manc., Liverpool, Valleys) I can't imagine how this realistically could have gone much worse for Labour. As a holder of £20 on LDs to be 0-9 at the GE at 10-1 I'm also feeling quite hopeful.
The result in Scotland could certainly have been worse.
52% in WM voted Lab, LD, Green, Comm in the first round. Same sort of thing as Bristol.
The idea that LD = Lab or "progressive" should be dead by now surely?
Take Solihull. Street got 2,981 second preference votes many of which must have come from the Lib Dems if not Greens etc as there were only 1,833 UKIP first preference votes.
One reason why I think that the Con position is much stronger than polls show is because they aren't making progress in areas such as Oxfordshire where they can afford to take a hit on their majorities, therefore the swing is stronger in the midlands and NE. Oxfordshire should be a rock solid Con stronghold.
Personally I'm very happy that my RG unseated the incumbent Conservative to keep Oxon NOC.
Re: OW&Ab, the LDs won all three Abingdon wards and both of the wards between Abingdon & east Oxford. So far I've only seen LD posters as well in Abingdon. All this being said I reckon that Blackwood will hold on in OWAb.
Can I just express a moment's sympathy to the Labour candidate who managed to lose to UKIP. I mean to lose against a party that has lost every seat they held. Not a good day. Not good at all.
The mayoral elections are the perfect illustration of the toxicity of Corbyn Labour. In all three that went to a second round Labour did not get enough transfers from LibDems and Greens to get over the line.
People don't understand the system, so a lot of Green and LD second preferences will have gone to each other, and so not influenced the final count. Plus I expect many LDs don't currently see Corbyn's Labour as an acceptable second choice. Especially when the Tory was Mr John Lewis/Waitrose.
Comments
Are the Tories winning big in their own areas ?
Matt Singh @MattSingh_
1/ This whole "It's not Labour doing badly, it's the Tories gaining seats because of the UKIP collapse" spin is totally missing the point.
2/ UKIP took votes almost equally from Labour and Tories from 2010-15. Polls said otherwise, but that's one the areas where they were wrong.
3/ I illustrated that here. And if you consider pre-2010 voting, UKIP very likely took more from Labour
4/ So if UKIP implodes, standing still is not neutral. Standing still is a disaster.
5/ Just as importantly, these are the sorts of people whose votes Labour needs if it wants to govern, but has been haemorrhaging since 2005.
6/ Of course, all of this is being viewed through the prism of Brexit. But the roots of it are far deeper.
7/ Ultimately, a broad church of the centre-left has to include socially conservative votes as well as socially liberal ones.
8/8 Which is why Labour's weakness is partly structural - it isn't solely down to the direction the party has taken since 2015.
'It is Farron you should worry about now.'
Just seen Farron complete with winning here placards on TV, has anyone told him he's lost 30 seats so far ?
The Robert Hayward forecast was Lib Dems + 100 seats.
Birmingham
Siôn Simon 10382
Andy Street 7690
Total rejected at the second stage 2988
Oh well.
KERCHING!
(and phew!)
https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/860519639721418752
Simon 234,862 combined
Andy Street: 1st 216,280 2nd 22,348 Total: 238,628
Sion Simon: 1st 210,259 2nd 24,603 Total: 234,862
Conservative victory
I said last week if Andy Street wins Mrs May is on course for a majority of 150 plus
so over to you Poch.
"Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tories will increase their majority."
Teeside
West Midlands
wee Mrs McTurnip looking pressured
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/860122076983775233
Andy 50.4%
Sion 49.6%
(They're Mayors - so they have to be known by their 1st names...)
He's a decent candidate though. I'll give him his due.
But let's not pretend it wasn't the million quid wot won it for him.
So much for most of these metro mayoralties going to Labour!
SNP 383 (-14)
Con 260 (+152)
Lab 230 (-115)
Ind 164 (-23)
LibDem 67 (-2)
Green 12 (+2)
... but Labour suffers heavy losses".
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/conference/2007/09/labour-majority-increase
Unionist: 580
Indy: 439
I'm told Sion Simon will have a punchy speech
popcorn time.
Take Solihull. Street got 2,981 second preference votes many of which must have come from the Lib Dems if not Greens etc as there were only 1,833 UKIP first preference votes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn4IpyVViw4
The 1/5 and better we could get up to this morning must be the safest bet for June 8th...
Personally I'm very happy that my RG unseated the incumbent Conservative to keep Oxon NOC.
Re: OW&Ab, the LDs won all three Abingdon wards and both of the wards between Abingdon & east Oxford. So far I've only seen LD posters as well in Abingdon. All this being said I reckon that Blackwood will hold on in OWAb.
Labour - 21 seats
Con - 7 seats
Amazing for Street to win given the above.
Oh.
Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.
Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.