justin124 said: ' I suspect that Labour will be content with its results in Scotland given previous expectations. Whilst they are well down on 2012 , they have not collapsed - and I rather fancy their chances of taking East Lothian from the SNP next month.' DavidL said: 'I tend to agree. Really bad but could have been so much worse. Professor Fisher may have got some things right but his forecast of 6% for SLAB is just miles off.
Edit, in fact on the same basis as I set out below they are on exactly 18% which is exactly what I forecast for them. As with the Tories and the SNP their actual percentage may be 1-2% better than that. '
The Labour setback in Scotland was very widely expected , and I suspect the much greater shock will be the relatively poor SNP performance. It does occur to me that they could now suffer a slide into the mid-30% - 35% range which could open up opportunities for the various pro-Union parties to reverse a fair bit of the 2015 tsunami - particularly if Labour moves up to the early to mid 20s%.
Which are the marginals in the Greater Manchester Combined Authority area? Could be worth a flutter on a few Labour holds.
Interesting that Burnham was runner-up to Corbyn in 2015, with about a third of his vote, yet got 63% here. I'm no statistician, but that does definitely mean Jez will win the General Election with a whopping 189% of the vote... the maths don't lie.
Worsley, Heywood and Middleton, Rochdale, Bolton NE, Bury South, Oldham East and Saddleworth. Ordinarilly wouldn't really be marginals to be honest.
I'll post this again from earlier. The 67 labour held seats where the Con + UKIP was greater in 2015. No other swing needed! The number is the total number above the labour total.
Newcastle-under-Lyme 6602 Mansfield 6535 Walsall North 6185 Stoke-on-Trent South 5759 North East Derbyshire 5748 Dagenham and Rainham 5512 Wakefield 5249 Hartlepool 5232 Dewsbury 5198 Halifax 5193 Dudley North 4932 Hyndburn 4754 Stoke-on-Trent North 4706 Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland 4667 Birmingham, Northfield 4597 Barrow and Furness 4275 City of Chester 4055 Penistone and Stocksbridge 4015 Bridgend 3984 Heywood and Middleton 3969 Gedling 3944 Alyn and Deeside 3917 Great Grimsby 3877 Eltham 3788 Ilford North 3766 Bolton North East 3740 Rother Valley 3648 Copeland 3584 Wolverhampton South West 3509 Bishop Auckland 3507 Wrexham 3241 Delyn 3220 Scunthorpe 3195 Bristol East 3172 Clwyd South 3078 Enfield North 3047 Blackpool South 3028 Batley and Spen 3023 Workington 2852 Lancaster and Fleetwood 2795 Brentford and Isleworth 2738 Newport West 2624 Bradford South 2607 Coventry North West 2592 Oldham East and Saddleworth 2555 Coventry South 2521 Chorley 2465 Wirral West 2355 Darlington 2234 Hove 2029 Stoke-on-Trent Central 1829 Newport East 1761 Southampton, Test 1756 Worsley and Eccles South 1742 Ealing Central and Acton 1652 Ynys Môn 1643 Birmingham, Edgbaston 1448 Bury South 1377 Ashfield 1330 Bristol South 1253 Don Valley 1078 Stalybridge and Hyde 1034 Wolverhampton North East 1029 Birmingham, Erdington 911 West Bromwich West 623 Walsall South 533 Hampstead and Kilburn 394
If I may be so bold, it seems a little OTT to assume that the Conservatives will gobble up the entire Ukip vote. They clearly still have a constituency out there, just one that's too small to get them anywhere much under FPTP, even at local authority level.
The Ukip-Con migration at the GE could be 50%; possibly, given these local election figures, a little more. That, however, would still be enough to do a lot of damage to Labour.
I was not trying to be OTT but provide the information unfiltered. I did actually start to apply a filter earlier but did not know what to assume.
Applying the above Yougov model leaves the following 15 seats where a transfer of 37% of Ukip to Tories and 5% to Labour would result in the seat being lost.
Newcastle-under-Lyme 1670.64 Halifax 1370.72 City of Chester 1234.36 Barrow and Furness 827.4 Ilford North 804.6 Dewsbury 676.68 Walsall North 662.04 Wolverhampton South West 578.2 Brentford and Isleworth 559.96 North East Derbyshire 558.92 Wirral West 470.04 Ealing Central and Acton 342.32 Enfield North 236.56 Stoke-on-Trent South 116.36 Lancaster and Fleetwood 34.2
Looking at that I am guessing that Simon is going to win more transfers from Birmingham?
Probably, but not overwhelmingly. But it looks to me that Street's lead is holding (strong and) stable at 6k with only Brum and Wolverhampton to reallocate. Birmingham is big of course, but this is looking over - not enough numbers there for Simon even if the remaining transfers are very good.
Yeah Street has surely got this. His 6k lead in the first round seems to have been enough.
Mr. Surbiton, I must agree with you, l and the general consensus. A Conservative majority of 48 looks a shade low.
Mr. Brooke, reference to the English language comment, or has he uttered something else daft?
I can understand why you say that. It may be a case of SKY having taken the 11% Tory lead and compared that with their 2015 lead of 6.6%. That would actually only be a swing from Lab to Con of 2.2% and would only cost Labour circa 15 seats. It does assume a uniform swing though!
Which are the marginals in the Greater Manchester Combined Authority area? Could be worth a flutter on a few Labour holds.
Interesting that Burnham was runner-up to Corbyn in 2015, with about a third of his vote, yet got 63% here. I'm no statistician, but that does definitely mean Jez will win the General Election with a whopping 189% of the vote... the maths don't lie.
Worsley, Heywood and Middleton, Rochdale, Bolton NE, Bury South, Oldham East and Saddleworth. Ordinarilly wouldn't really be marginals to be honest.
In fact I think the Tory candidate in Worsley, Cllr Iain Lindley is a PBer ?(or at least used to be)
Although 48 may be a shade low, I think those expecting a majority of over 100 may be disappointed come June 9th. Yesterday's results have shown that the Labour vote will hold up better than expected in some places and I suspect many traditional Labour supporters, especially where they have a good local MP, may well vote red in the privacy of the polling booth - the habit of a lifetime is difficult to shake when you vote Labour because your Dad did and his Dad did too.
We need a psephologist to crunch the numbers in their target seats.Doing that for all the parties should give us a good idea of likely gains and losses.
But for decades Lib Dems have performed much better in local elections than in general elections, particularly where they well organised on the ground. It needs something much more sophisticated than just totting up the local election votes in each seat.
James BURN Green Party 9787 Pete DURNELL UK Independence Party (UKIP) 7537 Beverley Anne NIELSEN Liberal Democrats 14840 Graham John STEVENSON Communist 2312
Wolves
James BURN Green Party 1794 Pete DURNELL UK Independence Party (UKIP) 2911 Beverley Anne NIELSEN Liberal Democrats 1990 Graham John STEVENSON Communist 570
That's approx 40k and about half will be non transferable. Lab will need 2/3rds of those that do.
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
Mr. Surbiton, I must agree with you, l and the general consensus. A Conservative majority of 48 looks a shade low.
Mr. Brooke, reference to the English language comment, or has he uttered something else daft?
whichever language he utters its all daft
but I was referring to his views on english, since
a) it's petty sour grapes and
b) Europe speaks american and not english
When asked what was the greatest political fact of modern times, Bismarck is reported to have responded, that it was "the inherited and permanent fact that North America speaks English."
How a uniion of over 500 million people let itself be led by a pisshhead town councillor with a chip on his shoulder is beyond comprehension
Although 48 may be a shade low, I think those expecting a majority of over 100 may be disappointed come June 9th. Yesterday's results have shown that the Labour vote will hold up better than expected in some places and I suspect many traditional Labour supporters, especially where they have a good local MP, may well vote red in the privacy of the polling booth - the habit of a lifetime is difficult to shake when you vote Labour because your Dad did and his Dad did too.
In E&W this election now hangs entirely on the extent of anti-Tory tactical voting. On the upside, people are genuinely concerned about Brexit and apprehensive about a big Tory majority. On the downside, people simply don't hate the Tories as much as they did a few years ago, or will in a few years' time.
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
I reckon they'll get a few more than that
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etc
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
I reckon they'll get a few more than that
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.
It is Farron you should worry about now.
While if Simon loses in West Midlands, what does that show ... ???
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?
Even before Wolverhampton had been called if UKIP all go to Street and Green all to Simon, for Lab to win you would need 12k of those 16k Lib Dem votes heading his way. So basically almost no chance. A lot of voters wont even give a second pref.
Burnham winning comfortably will be some solace for Lab. Greater Manchester will not be turning blue but the Midlands will.
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etc
That's my point; it's not clear how to reconcile them. Even allowing for people voting differently in local elections the imputed swing in the BBC figures is just 2.5% since 2015 compared to the 7% swing we saw in Copeland (and is indicated in some of the opinion polls).
Surely Simon nicks it at the end then? Those 2nd prefs will surely go mostly labour?
Only about 2/3rds of the reallocations will be reallocated (as some won't use or will go for another eliminated party). That leaves 30k maximum. Simon would have to win with over 18k to under 12k. Going to be tight but I'd say Street will fancy that.
LD projected share is 18% compared to about 10-12% in the polls.
The LDs saw a big uptick in actual votes recieved. My rough "back of the envelope" is that they've garnered about a 40% increase (albeit benefiting from standing in more seats). Ex-ing that out it's still probably a 35% jump.
But (a) it's been quite inefficiently spread, and (b) it's been overwhelmed by UKIP -> Con switching.
I suspect that will be the story on June 9th: LD will get perhaps 40% more votes than in 2015, but that the UKIP to Con switchers will result in them really struggling in some places. (North Norfolk, Carshalton, Southport.)
The one constituency where they'll be quite please is Cambridge where they're polling 6% higher than they were in 2015 on an equivalent basis, while Labour has slipped back.
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
I suspect the forecast to be a bit too clinical , but it is worth remembering that the change from May 2015 is a lot less dramatic than from May 2013 when these seats were last fought. The number of council seats changing hands would be far smaller were we able to use a May 2015 baseline. Beyond that the seats in Scotland and Wales were last fought in May 2012 - which was easily Labour's best year in the last Parliament.
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
I reckon they'll get a few more than that
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.
Didn't the Tories win Bristol?
They won West of England, but the Bristol authority breakdown had them third (30k Lab, 20k LD, 18k Tory). So not really - they've won it on South Gloucestershire principally.
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
I reckon they'll get a few more than that
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.
It is Farron you should worry about now.
They can win a 140 seat majority without big cities. They just need the medium-sized cities and big towns, on top of their safe seats.
CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Where are you getting those results, Cornwall council site has:
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary Election results by party Party name Seats won % of votes Conservative 35 34% Liberal Democrat 33 30%
True. Enough to take 2 seats away from the SNP in the GE.
I reckon they'll get a few more than that
And you guys are in THIRD. lol. And you lost GLASGOW.
Remember when Corbyn was going to "win back Scotland"?
CHORTLE
Corbyn is not my guy, you know that. Unfortunately, the Tories couldn't provide the killer blow. If Simon wins in West Midlands, that shows the Tories cannot win big cities.
It is Farron you should worry about now.
They can win a 140 seat majority without big cities. They just need the medium-sized cities and big towns, on top of their safe seats.
SeanF. I'm guessing when you say "they" in reference to the Tories, rather than "we", it indicates you are still with UKIP?
CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Where are you getting those results, Cornwall council site has:
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary Election results by party Party name Seats won % of votes Conservative 35 34% Liberal Democrat 33 30%
I just read from Sky that if these results are replicated at a GE the Tories will have a 44 seat majority. If that's all I reckon Corbyn's got off lightly.
Although 48 may be a shade low, I think those expecting a majority of over 100 may be disappointed come June 9th. Yesterday's results have shown that the Labour vote will hold up better than expected in some places and I suspect many traditional Labour supporters, especially where they have a good local MP, may well vote red in the privacy of the polling booth - the habit of a lifetime is difficult to shake when you vote Labour because your Dad did and his Dad did too.
In E&W this election now hangs entirely on the extent of anti-Tory tactical voting. On the upside, people are genuinely concerned about Brexit and apprehensive about a big Tory majority. On the downside, people simply don't hate the Tories as much as they did a few years ago, or will in a few years' time.
Also if you think about the polls not that many people dislike the tories anymore. There could even be an anti labour tactical vote.
You also have to remember that people yesterday were voting for local representation, and the key message the Tories will be pushing in the GE will be about support for the Gov position on negotiating Brexit. In a leave area you might want one type of representation, but in 5 weeks the choice is binary - Support for Gov mandate or not.
Unionists in Scotland currently 250 + 198 + 67 = 515
Indys 350+ 12 = 362.
Smug.
Thank goodness your drear leader didn't frame the 'No to a second referendum' local elections purely on the basis of votes for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party.
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
I suspect the forecast to be a bit too clinical , but it is worth remembering that the change from May 2015 is a lot less dramatic than from May 2013 when these seats were last fought. The number of council seats changing hands would be far smaller were we able to use a May 2015 baseline. Beyond that the seats in Scotland and Wales were last fought in May 2012 - which was easily Labour's best year in the last Parliament.
Does the very big vote share for Burnham affect the projected vote share? No one could seriously contemplate Labour getting 62% in Gtr Mcr at a General Election. Given it has the biggest population voting yesterday, does this seriously skew the figures?
Boulton says WM may be down to a hundred votes or so!!
A recount then must be likely!
And if the stories about certain local officers giving conflicting info about second preferences are accurate and it is this close maybe the whole thing needs to be redone...
CON currently +12 in Cornwall. Still 50 seats to come
Where are you getting those results, Cornwall council site has:
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary Election results by party Party name Seats won % of votes Conservative 35 34% Liberal Democrat 33 30%
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etc
That's my point; it's not clear how to reconcile them. Even allowing for people voting differently in local elections the imputed swing in the BBC figures is just 2.5% since 2015 compared to the 7% swing we saw in Copeland (and is indicated in some of the opinion polls).
It's also hard to reconcile the Tories getting three times what they were projected to by Railings and Thrasher ... with Railings and Thrasher thinking the Tories have significantly underperformed their polls and Copeland etc
Just what sort of Parliament were Railings and Thrasher predicting if three-hundred-odd gains is such a relatively minor majority what would only a hundred-odd gains have meant?
I just read from Sky that if these results are replicated at a GE the Tories will have a 44 seat majority. If that's all I reckon Corbyn's got off lightly.
The pattern is for Tories to do better in GEs and Labour worse than the locals. as some have described it, today will be Labour's ceiling & the Tories floor.
Sky forecast: Con maj of 48 seats if people voted the same way in GE as locals.
The polling companies are going to do more methodological changes. How do they square the above with the polls ?
It is puzzling; the Sky forecast is consistent with the BBC projected vote share. But neither tally with the opinion polls or recent results in, for example, Copeland.
They're both today's data only and take no account of polls or Copeland etc
That's my point; it's not clear how to reconcile them. Even allowing for people voting differently in local elections the imputed swing in the BBC figures is just 2.5% since 2015 compared to the 7% swing we saw in Copeland (and is indicated in some of the opinion polls).
Copeland was a Parliamentary election. These are local elections. The two are completely different. Look at this another way - for a governing party to make these gains, and the MOP to take these losses (when historically they are supposed to do very well), is, as far as I know, unprecedented. Compare the local results to the GE results from 1983.
I just read from Sky that if these results are replicated at a GE the Tories will have a 44 seat majority. If that's all I reckon Corbyn's got off lightly.
It's from the same team that got these local election predictions completely wrong, and understated the Labour losses and Tory gains.
Comments
Mr. Brooke, reference to the English language comment, or has he uttered something else daft?
justin124 said:
' I suspect that Labour will be content with its results in Scotland given previous expectations. Whilst they are well down on 2012 , they have not collapsed - and I rather fancy their chances of taking East Lothian from the SNP next month.'
DavidL said:
'I tend to agree. Really bad but could have been so much worse. Professor Fisher may have got some things right but his forecast of 6% for SLAB is just miles off.
Edit, in fact on the same basis as I set out below they are on exactly 18% which is exactly what I forecast for them. As with the Tories and the SNP their actual percentage may be 1-2% better than that. '
The Labour setback in Scotland was very widely expected , and I suspect the much greater shock will be the relatively poor SNP performance. It does occur to me that they could now suffer a slide into the mid-30% - 35% range which could open up opportunities for the various pro-Union parties to reverse a fair bit of the 2015 tsunami - particularly if Labour moves up to the early to mid 20s%.
Only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would contest a Tory held seat when the Tories are polling in the high 40s/50%
Applying the above Yougov model leaves the following 15 seats where a transfer of 37% of Ukip to Tories and 5% to Labour would result in the seat being lost.
Newcastle-under-Lyme 1670.64
Halifax 1370.72
City of Chester 1234.36
Barrow and Furness 827.4
Ilford North 804.6
Dewsbury 676.68
Walsall North 662.04
Wolverhampton South West 578.2
Brentford and Isleworth 559.96
North East Derbyshire 558.92
Wirral West 470.04
Ealing Central and Acton 342.32
Enfield North 236.56
Stoke-on-Trent South 116.36
Lancaster and Fleetwood 34.2
- so it must have been a terrible night for the tories
Elsewhere County Durham looks like an unconvincing majority for Labour.
All on Birmingham
Street: 229,226
Simon: 222,284
Diff: 6,942
Potential transfers to reallocate: 41,741.
UKIP: 10,448
Comm, 2,882
Green: 11,581
LDem: 16,830
https://twitter.com/itnsourcenews/status/860446858883321856
Green Party have 10 seats on Solihull council, well ahead of the Lib Dems. This isn't new, unfortunately.
but I was referring to his views on english, since
a) it's petty sour grapes and
b) Europe speaks american and not english
When asked what was the greatest political fact of modern times, Bismarck is reported to have responded, that it was "the inherited and permanent fact that North America speaks English."
How a uniion of over 500 million people let itself be led by a pisshhead town councillor with a chip on his shoulder is beyond comprehension
they might as well have appointed Nicola Sturgeon
Second preferences seem to average about 50-50 in the other 4 areas with a similar ratio of party voters in each of them.
It is Farron you should worry about now.
Even before Wolverhampton had been called if UKIP all go to Street and Green all to Simon, for Lab to win you would need 12k of those 16k Lib Dem votes heading his way. So basically almost no chance. A lot of voters wont even give a second pref.
Burnham winning comfortably will be some solace for Lab. Greater Manchester will not be turning blue but the Midlands will.
But (a) it's been quite inefficiently spread, and (b) it's been overwhelmed by UKIP -> Con switching.
I suspect that will be the story on June 9th: LD will get perhaps 40% more votes than in 2015, but that the UKIP to Con switchers will result in them really struggling in some places. (North Norfolk, Carshalton, Southport.)
The one constituency where they'll be quite please is Cambridge where they're polling 6% higher than they were in 2015 on an equivalent basis, while Labour has slipped back.
Which disproves Surbiton's statement.
LibDems doing OK though in my opinion. They stopped the bleeding and made a decent start on the recovery.
Indys 350+ 12 = 362.
Smug.
Cornwall Council elections - Thursday, 4th May, 2017
Status: Counting in progress
Cornwall Council elections - detailed results for Electoral Divisions
Cornwall Council elections - Electoral Divisions summary
Election results by party
Party name Seats won % of votes
Conservative 35 34%
Liberal Democrat 33 30%
Oh, and we can hear the klaxon in Dubai!
http://labourlist.org/2017/05/local-elections-liveblog/
And for those that missed the earlier threads, here's the summary of the English council results: https://goo.gl/uzcozl
Result: It's over - Independence now stone dead.
Scottish Communists - 25%
Western Allies +100%
You also have to remember that people yesterday were voting for local representation, and the key message the Tories will be pushing in the GE will be about support for the Gov position on negotiating Brexit. In a leave area you might want one type of representation, but in 5 weeks the choice is binary - Support for Gov mandate or not.
Just what sort of Parliament were Railings and Thrasher predicting if three-hundred-odd gains is such a relatively minor majority what would only a hundred-odd gains have meant?
"The party is on course to make scores of gains at the general election ..."
That seems to imply at least 40 gains ... ?