"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
The Labour central operation is too incompetent and too ideological for it to be a reliable guide on the battlegrounds (that's one reason why I expect Labour to underperform uniform national swing). Watch the Conservatives instead and especially where Theresa May goes.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
There are some very working-class areas in Tamworth and they all elected Tory candidates. White van man territory.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
You are presuming Team Twat have any idea what they are doing. I think it is pretty clear they haven't got the sort of Messina bod telling them Mr Smith at #27 is best targetted via Facebook ad between 7-9pm.
Labour high command are clueless, but the General Secretary and the staffers in the HQ are believed to have a plan.
As per Pienaar's report: abandon the MPs in the sub-5,000 majority marginals to look to their own defences, and try to build a firewall around the mid-range Tory targets. Pour what money and resources they have into trying to save as many of these seats as possible, and keep the PLP somewhere close to 200 - stop a serious defeat snowballing into a total rout.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
Rather neatly, there are precisely 60 Labour seats (I think) with a majority under 5000.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
22 years? No. Just over 20 years ago the Tories lost more than half their MPs and were down to their last county council. 10 years later Sion was confident enough to write his now infomous piece on Labour's next victory. Their time will come again and in 10 years time the political landscape will be very different. Will they win in 2022 (or whenever the next election is)? Probably not. In 2027? I wouldn't bet against it. In fact it will be very unhealthy for there not to be a viable government in waiting by then.
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
Indeed.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
There is literally no scenario that would see Corbyn go voluntarily. However, many Corbynites will slope away from Labour now. Jeremy is going to become last year's thing to many of them - they will find other things to care about from behind their computer screens. He is also going to lose the backing of Unison, while Champagne Len is now much less secure in Unite than he was. Corbyn will be challenged and will probably lose. If he doesn't, Labour will split.
It's seems Labour are now two tribes. The posh, middle class, metropolitan group who voted Remain, and the remnants of the WWC who haven't decided to sit on their hands or vote elsewhere yet. The latter group is rapidly shrinking.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
Indeed.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
There is literally no scenario that would see Corbyn go voluntarily. However, many Corbynites will slope away from Labour now. Jeremy is going to become last year's thing to many of them - they will find other things to care about from behind their computer screens. He is also going to lose the backing of Unison, while Champagne Len is now much less secure in Unite than he was. Corbyn will be challenged and will probably lose. If he doesn't, Labour will split.
Yup, its the bunker now.. only his trusted lieutenants...
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
Indeed.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
There is literally no scenario that would see Corbyn go voluntarily. However, many Corbynites will slope away from Labour now. Jeremy is going to become last year's thing to many of them - they will find other things to care about from behind their computer screens. He is also going to lose the backing of Unison, while Champagne Len is now much less secure in Unite than he was. Corbyn will be challenged and will probably lose. If he doesn't, Labour will split.
Do you think he would stay on after a catastophic loss in a GE?
It's seems Labour are now two tribes. The posh, middle class, metropolitan group who voted Remain, and the remnants of the WWC who haven't decided to sit on their hands or vote elsewhere yet. The latter group is rapidly shrinking.
Labour is a coalition that has broken apart. Dead.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
The Labour central operation is too incompetent and too ideological for it to be a reliable guide on the battlegrounds (that's one reason why I expect Labour to underperform uniform national swing). Watch the Conservatives instead and especially where Theresa May goes.
Good point. From memory the travels of David Cameron last time showed how far down the target list they were putting serious efforts in during the closing days, and with hindsight was a good pointer to the majority being possible.
I guess the big difference for this election is that everyone's had much less time to prepare for it, so the level of detail available to the planners might not be as high as it was a couple of years ago.
Hope we get to see Mrs May in Don Valley with @Tissue_Price
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
The Labour central operation is too incompetent and too ideological for it to be a reliable guide on the battlegrounds (that's one reason why I expect Labour to underperform uniform national swing). Watch the Conservatives instead and especially where Theresa May goes.
Good point. From memory the travels of David Cameron last time showed how far down the target list they were putting serious efforts in during the closing days, and with hindsight was a good pointer to the majority being possible.
I guess the big difference for this election is that everyone's had much less time to prepare for it, so the level of detail available to the planners might not be as high as it was a couple of years ago.
Hope we get to see Mrs May in Don Valley with @Tissue_Price
We'll know things are really bad for Labour if she turns up in Liverpool Wavertree.
Or will she do a Thatcher and start campaigning for them? That really would be acid on the fatal gunshot!
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Nah. If the Tories are 150 seats ahead you won't get back in next time, even if your leader is Abraham Lincoln crossbred with Winston Churchill, sired by Alfred the Great.
It's too much to do in one go. But 2027, sure.
Not necessarily. Labour would only need to repeat Cameron's 2010 achievement - in reverse. That would take them close to 300 seats which would be enough ,given the near certainty that the smaller parties would prefer a non-Tory government.
'Do you think he would stay on after a catastophic loss in a GE?'
He'll probably stay on until conference to maintain stability in the party & get the required rule changes to enable the baton to be passed to McDonnell or Abbott.
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
Well that's precisely what happened last time the Tories were in government. They dominated for so long that eventually the Tories split on the issue of Europe and became the opposition to themselves on it. It took the Brexit result to finally end that European division decades later.
It is an interesting question to wonder if the Tories in the 90s had not divided over Europe what else would have been different? I suspect over time they'd have divided over something else instead.
'Do you think he would stay on after a catastophic loss in a GE?'
He'll probably stay on until conference to maintain stability in the party & get the required rule changes to enable the baton to be passed to McDonnell or Abbott.
Dear God, surely even Corbyn wouldn't try to pass the baton to Abbott after the last 72 hours?
That would be like Hitler being replaced by Streicher.
It's seems Labour are now two tribes. The posh, middle class, metropolitan group who voted Remain, and the remnants of the WWC who haven't decided to sit on their hands or vote elsewhere yet. The latter group is rapidly shrinking.
La Toynbee wrote about this in The Graun a couple of weeks ago. I think reality very nearly dawned on her - before she veered off into spouting nonsense about progressive alliances and became delusional again:
"This malaise runs deep, as the brand of the party itself has become profoundly contaminated and mistrusted by the very people Labour thinks it’s there to support. The class and culture divide between Labour leaders and its putative voters yawns too wide to bridge.
"The images of Emily Thornberry’s sneering at a white-van man’s St George’s flag, or Gordon Brown’s dismissal of Gillian Duffy as “bigoted”, have burned deep into the working-class psyche, says Mattinson. The thinking now is that Labour doesn’t like “people like us”, is neither “one of us” nor “on our side”. Whose side is it on? It’s the party of posh metropolitans who defend only immigrants and people on benefits.
"The words the leadership uses have little meaning or resonance with erstwhile Labour voters. “Austerity” is empty verbiage to them, says Mattinson. Social justice, equality, fairness – these have no traction; they are abstractions that, if understood, are viewed with suspicion: more money for immigrants and people on benefits. Labour’s economic woes go back to 2008 – the party is still blamed for the crash, so any spending promises are viewed as signs of its wastefulness."
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
I agree. In the last 50 years two Labour leaders have got over 40% of the vote. One was obvious. The other was Harold Wilson. Even if we cut the qualification to 34% that still only adds Callaghan.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
I don't think so, it will require someone like Keir Starmer to put Labour back together again after Corbynism and the shellacking they are about to receive and the voters are clearly determined to back May and her plan to regain control of UK borders and regaining sovereignty. In 10 years time if immigration has been brought down to acceptable levels they may be prepared to look at someone like Chuka Umunna and a return to the single market but for the foreseeable future May is all conquering
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
The Tories are becoming a very broad coalition now. It will take some holding together if Brexit does go wrong.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Nah. If the Tories are 150 seats ahead you won't get back in next time, even if your leader is Abraham Lincoln crossbred with Winston Churchill, sired by Alfred the Great.
It's too much to do in one go. But 2027, sure.
Not necessarily. Labour would only need to repeat Cameron's 2010 achievement - in reverse. That would take them close to 300 seats which would be enough ,given the near certainty that the smaller parties would prefer a non-Tory government.
The closer Labour seems to be getting to the threshold for coalition or minority Government, the greater the numbers of English voters who will vomit at the thought of cohabitation with the SNP, and vote Conservative to stop it. Labour needs to work out what to do about this.
If I'm right and the defeat of Labour is heavy but not a rout, then there is a path back - but only once the party comes to its senses over the leadership, rebuilds its credibility, and then solves its Scottish problem.
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
I agree. In the last 50 years two Labour leaders have got over 40% of the vote. One was obvious. The other was Harold Wilson. Even if we cut the qualification to 34% that still only adds Callaghan.
No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.
Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.
Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.
Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.
If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?
If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.
And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.
No it's two years from the date of when the MPs submitted their expenses returns.
They have, I believe, up to 5 weeks from election day to submit their return.
Some filed pretty quickly, some did it within a fortnight, and some waited until the last minute.
No-one EVER submits an Election Expenses Return until about day 30 unless it is a trivial one for a parish council election where no money was spent. I know the chasing around there is getting Bills and Receipts for a local government election. These have to be verified by your party paid agent even at local government level. I know parliamentary returns had to be reviewed by party officers from the central party before the recent unpleasantness. So, I would expect them to start to emerge after 1 June. BUT logic dictates that particularly tight Returns would take longer to make up and so they would be closer to the deadline.
Well well well. Well well well. I find myself a little stunned by the events of the past day, I must admit. Not that the LDs finding it harder going than hoped was completely unpredictable – as I and many had noted, even while thinking they would do well, if the Tory surge was indeed a real thing then it was clear they would suffer in some places – or indeed that Tory gains were unexpected, but the reality of what has occurred was beyond my expectations, especially locally, and I feel the need to try and sit back and assess.
Turnout was up, quite considerably in some cases, in my area. The Tory surge is real at least to some extent. I live in a division which was solidly LD then former LD independent, the town council was LD controlled, and even though I received not a single piece of election literature from the Tories despite being on a main road in the division, and the candidates didn’t even show up to the count, they won the unitary easily and seem like they’d have won all 3 town council seats, if only they’d stood 3 rather than 2 candidates. The story seems very similar in many other areas.
In terms of the parties, I have some probably not unique thoughts:
Tories – As said, the surge is real. Circumstance, luck and the right tone are working very well. It might well be the case that there are serious issues on the horizon and they could fall swiftly in the right situation, but in the short term they are certainly in for a good time. Labour – It’s nights like this the depths of partisan spin, and how little respect politicians can have comes to the fore. The attempts to present this as not terrible is pathetic. Wales might be a bit more complicated than the picture elsewhere, but it was still horrific everywhere. We all know Corbyn is not the only reason for their troubles, but the denial is getting silly, and is just not helping anyone. UKIP – Who? Dead, and should stay that way.
LDs – Not quite as dead, but close to it – as I said, finding it hard going was not entirely unexpected, but while only modest parliamentary gains were hoped for anyway, on this evidence they could end up with even fewer seats. Liberal tories are staying home even as ukippers flock to the Tory banner. I voted LD, but what’s the point? The two party people are right, and we might as well make a straight Tory-Lab fight. They might as well ally with some disenchanted Labour and form the ‘democrat’ party or whatever.
SNP – Fine. Still the dominant party, even if some of their supporters might be gracious enough to admit that relative success is a thing when it comes to opponents. They still have a dominant hand, and victory in their grasp, and it wasn’t a terrible night by any means.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
Indeed.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
There is literally no scenario that would see Corbyn go voluntarily. However, many Corbynites will slope away from Labour now. Jeremy is going to become last year's thing to many of them - they will find other things to care about from behind their computer screens. He is also going to lose the backing of Unison, while Champagne Len is now much less secure in Unite than he was. Corbyn will be challenged and will probably lose. If he doesn't, Labour will split.
Do you think he would stay on after a catastophic loss in a GE?
Almost certainly. The project for Coryn and the far left is not to win elections but to take control of Labour. They know that if moderates take back control they will shut the far left out forever by closing all the procedural loopholes and oddities that allowed Corbyn to get to where he is now: no more £3 memberships, no more vote-lending by MPs, no possible changes to deselection rules and so on. It's Corbyn or bust for the far left. And they will not bust voluntarily.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
How does that square with the forecast of a Tory majority of 48 seats?
There's 60 Labour seats with that kind of majority, so you'd be looking at ~130 seat majority, which is roughly what PNV-adjusted-for-1983/87GE (say 17% advantage in the vote) is pointing to.
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
I agree. In the last 50 years two Labour leaders have got over 40% of the vote. One was obvious. The other was Harold Wilson. Even if we cut the qualification to 34% that still only adds Callaghan.
Labour need refreshing somehow. But how?
Kinnock polled 35.2% in 1992!
I'm quoting UK wide figures because the Tories had seats in Northern Ireland (officially until 1973, unofficially until 1985). I know you prefer GB ones, but they raise continuity issues.
Evening Standard Comment tonight straight from the George Osborne handbook celebrating UKIP's demise but hoping it does not shift the Tories to the right
Would any of our spreadsheet experts be able to calculate:
Lab to Con swing in Labour held wards Lab to Con swing in Conservative wards Lab to Con swing for each constituency
Has someone solved the BBC NEV [ or what ever it is called ] ?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
It's 18% LD, (not 15%,) 5% Ukip, and 12% other parties. I would assume that "other" probably consists of about 5% SNP, 3% Green, 1% (rounded up) for Plaid, and the rest is down to rounding effects, and various odds and sods.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Nah. If the Tories are 150 seats ahead you won't get back in next time, even if your leader is Abraham Lincoln crossbred with Winston Churchill, sired by Alfred the Great.
It's too much to do in one go. But 2027, sure.
Not necessarily. Labour would only need to repeat Cameron's 2010 achievement - in reverse. That would take them close to 300 seats which would be enough ,given the near certainty that the smaller parties would prefer a non-Tory government.
The closer Labour seems to be getting to the threshold for coalition or minority Government, the greater the numbers of English voters who will vomit at the thought of cohabitation with the SNP, and vote Conservative to stop it. Labour needs to work out what to do about this.
If I'm right and the defeat of Labour is heavy but not a rout, then there is a path back - but only once the party comes to its senses over the leadership, rebuilds its credibility, and then solves its Scottish problem.
But if the SNP themselves are falling back - and I am pleased to think that they are! - that danger would seem less potent , particularly after 12 years of Tory Government. In Scotland ,by the way, I think it possible Labour may snatch several seats back from the SNP next month.
The closer Labour seems to be getting to the threshold for coalition or minority Government, the greater the numbers of English voters who will vomit at the thought of cohabitation with the SNP, and vote Conservative to stop it. Labour needs to work out what to do about this.
In the 1980s it was suggested the abolition of capital controls had utterly screwed Labour because if it looked like they would win capital would leave the country in a panic and everyone would be scared into voting Tory as a result.
It turned out to be wrong ultimately, but I agree in part - Labour do I think need a path to win in their own strength or with the help of a non-toxic party like the Liberal Democrats.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Nah. If the Tories are 150 seats ahead you won't get back in next time, even if your leader is Abraham Lincoln crossbred with Winston Churchill, sired by Alfred the Great.
It's too much to do in one go. But 2027, sure.
Not necessarily. Labour would only need to repeat Cameron's 2010 achievement - in reverse. That would take them close to 300 seats which would be enough ,given the near certainty that the smaller parties would prefer a non-Tory government.
The closer Labour seems to be getting to the threshold for coalition or minority Government, the greater the numbers of English voters who will vomit at the thought of cohabitation with the SNP, and vote Conservative to stop it. Labour needs to work out what to do about this.
If I'm right and the defeat of Labour is heavy but not a rout, then there is a path back - but only once the party comes to its senses over the leadership, rebuilds its credibility, and then solves its Scottish problem.
But if the SNP themselves are falling back - and I am pleased to think that they are! - that danger would seem less potent , particularly after 12 years of Tory Government. In Scotland ,by the way, I think it possible Labour may snatch several seats back from the SNP next month.
Would any of our spreadsheet experts be able to calculate:
Lab to Con swing in Labour held wards Lab to Con swing in Conservative wards Lab to Con swing for each constituency
Has someone solved the BBC NEV [ or what ever it is called ] ?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
It's 18% LD, (not 15%,) 5% Ukip, and 12% other parties. I would assume that "other" probably consists of about 5% SNP, 3% Green, 1% (rounded up) for Plaid, and the rest is down to rounding effects, and various odds and sods.
Corbyn just dodged a question about whether he is the right man to lead Labour on Ch4 News.
It looks as though he is planning to resign when he gets his arse handed to him.
Please give thanks to the deity of your choice. He is not the only problem, but now if Labour can find someone sane they can begin looking for a solution.
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
I agree. In the last 50 years two Labour leaders have got over 40% of the vote. One was obvious. The other was Harold Wilson. Even if we cut the qualification to 34% that still only adds Callaghan.
Labour need refreshing somehow. But how?
Kinnock polled 35.2% in 1992!
I'm quoting UK wide figures because the Tories had seats in Northern Ireland (officially until 1973, unofficially until 1985). I know you prefer GB ones, but they raise continuity issues.
But that is not what pollsters give us - nor what informed commentators refer to.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Nah. If the Tories are 150 seats ahead you won't get back in next time, even if your leader is Abraham Lincoln crossbred with Winston Churchill, sired by Alfred the Great.
It's too much to do in one go. But 2027, sure.
Not necessarily. Labour would only need to repeat Cameron's 2010 achievement - in reverse. That would take them close to 300 seats which would be enough ,given the near certainty that the smaller parties would prefer a non-Tory government.
The closer Labour seems to be getting to the threshold for coalition or minority Government, the greater the numbers of English voters who will vomit at the thought of cohabitation with the SNP, and vote Conservative to stop it. Labour needs to work out what to do about this.
If I'm right and the defeat of Labour is heavy but not a rout, then there is a path back - but only once the party comes to its senses over the leadership, rebuilds its credibility, and then solves its Scottish problem.
But if the SNP themselves are falling back - and I am pleased to think that they are! - that danger would seem less potent , particularly after 12 years of Tory Government. In Scotland ,by the way, I think it possible Labour may snatch several seats back from the SNP next month.
I'm sure there will be strong tactical voting towards both the Tories and Labour in different seats.
Would any of our spreadsheet experts be able to calculate:
Lab to Con swing in Labour held wards Lab to Con swing in Conservative wards Lab to Con swing for each constituency
Has someone solved the BBC NEV [ or what ever it is called ] ?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
It's 18% LD, (not 15%,) 5% Ukip, and 12% other parties. I would assume that "other" probably consists of about 5% SNP, 3% Green, 1% (rounded up) for Plaid, and the rest is down to rounding effects, and various odds and sods.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
Indeed.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
It's very unhealthy now. Look what May can get away with now. I'd love to think you're right but I'm very much afraid you're wrong. Labour are about to poll lower than the Tories in 1997 in their third successive election (or just barely better than Major under Miliband without checking) and they have nobody of the quality of William Hague or Michael Howard (!) to come in.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
Even if Corbyn fell under a bus tomorrow and was replaced by moderate X, Y or Z, Labour's problems would be very far from over. The views and concerns of its MPs and membership base are still very largely divorced from those of the social conservative fraction of its supporter base. Bringing the two together is going to be a tall order, given that a lot of the traditional Labour vote feels fed up, alienated, take for granted and (in many cases) inclined to give Theresa May a go; whereas the left-libs often find both these people and their values anathema, and sometimes can't help themselves from saying so, either. The EU, immigration, refugees, social security, schools and defence are all amongst the totemic issues on which the two sides are divided. They agree about the NHS and little else, which is one of the reasons why Labour is often tempted to talk about the NHS and little else. That simply isn't good enough.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
The Tories are becoming a very broad coalition now. It will take some holding together if Brexit does go wrong.
The Tories are accepting into their ranks people who are socially conservative already: the WWC. Where they previously differed was on economics and the welfare state: but now May can beat the Brexit drum and reassure them she is 'one of us'. So it's sort of a good fit.
I think a lot of the switchers are going to get a taste for voting blue and will keep doing so.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Nah. If the Tories are 150 seats ahead you won't get back in next time, even if your leader is Abraham Lincoln crossbred with Winston Churchill, sired by Alfred the Great.
It's too much to do in one go. But 2027, sure.
Not necessarily. Labour would only need to repeat Cameron's 2010 achievement - in reverse. That would take them close to 300 seats which would be enough ,given the near certainty that the smaller parties would prefer a non-Tory government.
But if the SNP themselves are falling back - and I am pleased to think that they are! - that danger would seem less potent , particularly after 12 years of Tory Government. In Scotland ,by the way, I think it possible Labour may snatch several seats back from the SNP next month.
Any examples?
If not, I admire your optimism.
I will give you two - East Lothian - Edingburgh North & Leith. East Renfrewshire looks like a three-way contest. I am half expecting to now see the SNP drift down to 35% - 37% and Labour's performance was better there than expected so they could creep back to 22%/23%.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.
Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.
I'd say for the longer term health it may be a better thing, since we may end up with a Lab or replacement party living other than on the moon.
The labour brand has always been strong, but through a combination of factors it is a brand that is in danger of been destroyed. Corbyn and Mcdonnell have only ever viewed the Labour party as a vehicle for a mass movement. They now have their wish to everyone's detriment.
'Do you think he would stay on after a catastophic loss in a GE?'
He'll probably stay on until conference to maintain stability in the party & get the required rule changes to enable the baton to be passed to McDonnell or Abbott.
What would have happened if Ed had stayed on like Howard (or even Kinnock)?
Well well well. Well well well. I find myself a little stunned by the events of the past day, I must admit. Not that the LDs finding it harder going than hoped was completely unpredictable – as I and many had noted, even while thinking they would do well, if the Tory surge was indeed a real thing then it was clear they would suffer in some places – or indeed that Tory gains were unexpected, but the reality of what has occurred was beyond my expectations, especially locally, and I feel the need to try and sit back and assess.
A couple of things spring to mind, you failed to accept the polls could be accurate and put too much faith in Labour. You said you would reassess as the time got closer, you didn’t, instead you continued to play down events. Perhaps you are just overly cautious by nature.
Evening Standard Comment tonight straight from the George Osborne handbook celebrating UKIP's demise but hoping it does not shift the Tories to the right
Corbyn happy to go to the North West to celebrate mayoral wins.
Would party leaders do better by going to the areas where they lost and boosting morale there so the local losers take the fight to the winners in time for the next election.
Corbyn just dodged a question about whether he is the right man to lead Labour on Ch4 News.
It looks as though he is planning to resign when he gets his arse handed to him.
Please give thanks to the deity of your choice. He is not the only problem, but now if Labour can find someone sane they can begin looking for a solution.
Is there an appetite at all for them to go back to being Tory lite? Only way they will get back into power.
Would any of our spreadsheet experts be able to calculate:
Lab to Con swing in Labour held wards Lab to Con swing in Conservative wards Lab to Con swing for each constituency
Has someone solved the BBC NEV [ or what ever it is called ] ?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
There are a lot of independents in the local elections. What happens to their vote share? This may explain the differnce, but surely it can't be that simple?
Would any of our spreadsheet experts be able to calculate:
Lab to Con swing in Labour held wards Lab to Con swing in Conservative wards Lab to Con swing for each constituency
Has someone solved the BBC NEV [ or what ever it is called ] ?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
There are a lot of independents in the local elections. What happens to their vote share? This may explain the differnce, but surely it can't be that simple?
Independents usually get a very high share in Wales and parts of England like Cornwall, so it could be them on 10% overall. But of course a fair number of them will vote for the Tories at the GE (as well as the other parties).
Burgon on C4 News: "It's no mean feat for Labour to win in Liverpool"
That's what he said.
Do these idiots realise that isn't helping? OK, I'm an outsider, they don't have to listen to the likes of me, but surely basic common sense says certain tactics, like portraying an easy win as a triumph against the evil government, don't work once you pass a certain point 'No mean feat' to win in Liverpool, really? He might as well spit in the interviewers face or drop trouser on camera that shows so little respect.
WTF? Is he seriously unhinged? I get spin, and maintaining a confident demeanour to try to bolster morale, but jesus christ.
Frankly Corbyn fully deserves to be ousted for the simple act of agreeing to May's wish to call the election. Had he blocked her I am far from persuaded that Labour would have done any worse - indeed had he humiliated May in that way they might have done a bit better.
Well well well. Well well well. I find myself a little stunned by the events of the past day, I must admit. Not that the LDs finding it harder going than hoped was completely unpredictable – as I and many had noted, even while thinking they would do well, if the Tory surge was indeed a real thing then it was clear they would suffer in some places – or indeed that Tory gains were unexpected, but the reality of what has occurred was beyond my expectations, especially locally, and I feel the need to try and sit back and assess.
A couple of things spring to mind, you failed to accept the polls could be accurate and put too much faith in Labour. You said you would reassess as the time got closer, you didn’t, instead you continued to play down events. Perhaps you are just overly cautious by nature.
That is certainly true, but the scale of the Labour losses was not what surprised me - they were a little more than I thought, but I expected them to do terribly, as most did. It was the LDs I put too much faith in, even though I had floated the possibility they would struggle more than most predictions thought.
I think it was the Tory surge I underestimated - the increased turnout deeply surprises me.
Corbyn just dodged a question about whether he is the right man to lead Labour on Ch4 News.
It looks as though he is planning to resign when he gets his arse handed to him.
Please give thanks to the deity of your choice. He is not the only problem, but now if Labour can find someone sane they can begin looking for a solution.
Is there an appetite at all for them to go back to being Tory lite? Only way they will get back into power.
Burgon on C4 News: "It's no mean feat for Labour to win in Liverpool"
That's what he said. And perhaps he's right in present circumstances.
Typical straw man arguments from Labour. John McDonnell said this morning that they didn't get totally wiped out like 'some' had been predicting. I've no idea who these 'some' are.
Do these idiots realise that isn't helping? OK, I'm an outsider, they don't have to listen to the likes of me, but surely basic common sense says certain tactics, like portraying an easy win as a triumph against the evil government, don't work once you pass a certain point 'No mean feat' to win in Liverpool, really? He might as well spit in the interviewers face or drop trouser on camera that shows so little respect.
Listening to the likes of Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott, and Burgon now it seems like they aren't spinning, or even lying, there's a collective denial of what is actually happening. They really don't believe the polls, or it seems the local election results, they really do believe it's one more push to victory in the general election, perhaps as part of a coalition. They think the public will see and hear Corbyn over the next few weeks and have a change of heart.
I will give you two - East Lothian - Edingburgh North & Leith. East Renfrewshire looks like a three-way contest. I am half expecting to now see the SNP drift down to 35% - 37% and Labour's performance was better there than expected so they could creep back to 22%/23%.
Two isn't several, but as I didn't ask for an exhaustive list that's fair enough. I will add those to my watch list.
I think ER is a two way marginal with Labour a poor third on current polling. But I would be happy to be proved wrong.
Burgon on C4 News: "It's no mean feat for Labour to win in Liverpool"
That's what he said. And perhaps he's right in present circumstances.
Typical straw man arguments from Labour. John McDonnell said this morning that they didn't get totally wiped out like 'some' had been predicting. I've no idea who these 'some' are.
It's proof that John McDonnell reads Political Betting!!! Proof, I tell you!
One could imagine WLab going for a CSU/CDU kind of deal.
The CSU's long-term dominance of Bavaria shows that there could be a bright future for a an independent Scottish party that was pro-union. The SNP could never do the same because they have one ultimate goal which will either be achieved or not.
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As per Pienaar's report: abandon the MPs in the sub-5,000 majority marginals to look to their own defences, and try to build a firewall around the mid-range Tory targets. Pour what money and resources they have into trying to save as many of these seats as possible, and keep the PLP somewhere close to 200 - stop a serious defeat snowballing into a total rout.
It might work.
And @murali_s may I just gently remind you Labour's atrocious leadership is a problem, but it's not as though there's an obvious 'half-decent' alternative, which is how the mad posh boy won in the first place.
It's easy to see why he beat Sion Simon. If he governs as he's campaigned he will be a fine mayor.
Looming at the councillor changes in SW England:
Cornwall
Con +15
LibD +2
Devon
Con +4
LibD -1
Dorset
Con +4
LibD -1
Somerset
Con +6
LibD -6
Gloucestershire
Con +8
LibD --
Wiltshire
Con +10
LibD -7
Not much evidence there of this supposed LibDem surge or that the loss of David Cameron is damaging the Conservatives.
I guess the big difference for this election is that everyone's had much less time to prepare for it, so the level of detail available to the planners might not be as high as it was a couple of years ago.
Hope we get to see Mrs May in Don Valley with @Tissue_Price
C spread is currently 403-409
Labour 144-150.
Labour will have to work out how to stitch its voter coalition back together, or there will be an extended period of Tory domination followed by some form of realignment. I'm not at all sure where that will lead us, but if the Conservatives are powerful enough for long enough, and no effective Opposition is rebuilt, then it's entirely possible that the Conservative Party may split over a defining issue of policy at some point in the future, and end up providing both the Government and Opposition at the same time. But who can say?
Or will she do a Thatcher and start campaigning for them? That really would be acid on the fatal gunshot!
'Do you think he would stay on after a catastophic loss in a GE?'
He'll probably stay on until conference to maintain stability in the party & get the required rule changes to enable the baton to be passed to McDonnell or Abbott.
Lab to Con swing in Labour held wards
Lab to Con swing in Conservative wards
Lab to Con swing for each constituency
It is an interesting question to wonder if the Tories in the 90s had not divided over Europe what else would have been different? I suspect over time they'd have divided over something else instead.
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn
That would be like Hitler being replaced by Streicher.
"This malaise runs deep, as the brand of the party itself has become profoundly contaminated and mistrusted by the very people Labour thinks it’s there to support. The class and culture divide between Labour leaders and its putative voters yawns too wide to bridge.
"The images of Emily Thornberry’s sneering at a white-van man’s St George’s flag, or Gordon Brown’s dismissal of Gillian Duffy as “bigoted”, have burned deep into the working-class psyche, says Mattinson. The thinking now is that Labour doesn’t like “people like us”, is neither “one of us” nor “on our side”. Whose side is it on? It’s the party of posh metropolitans who defend only immigrants and people on benefits.
"The words the leadership uses have little meaning or resonance with erstwhile Labour voters. “Austerity” is empty verbiage to them, says Mattinson. Social justice, equality, fairness – these have no traction; they are abstractions that, if understood, are viewed with suspicion: more money for immigrants and people on benefits. Labour’s economic woes go back to 2008 – the party is still blamed for the crash, so any spending promises are viewed as signs of its wastefulness."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/labour-sandbags-survive-yory-tidal-wave-tactical-voting-progressive-alliances
Labour need refreshing somehow. But how?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
Also depends what state the Opposition is in.
If I'm right and the defeat of Labour is heavy but not a rout, then there is a path back - but only once the party comes to its senses over the leadership, rebuilds its credibility, and then solves its Scottish problem.
Turnout was up, quite considerably in some cases, in my area. The Tory surge is real at least to some extent. I live in a division which was solidly LD then former LD independent, the town council was LD controlled, and even though I received not a single piece of election literature from the Tories despite being on a main road in the division, and the candidates didn’t even show up to the count, they won the unitary easily and seem like they’d have won all 3 town council seats, if only they’d stood 3 rather than 2 candidates. The story seems very similar in many other areas.
In terms of the parties, I have some probably not unique thoughts:
Tories – As said, the surge is real. Circumstance, luck and the right tone are working very well. It might well be the case that there are serious issues on the horizon and they could fall swiftly in the right situation, but in the short term they are certainly in for a good time.
Labour – It’s nights like this the depths of partisan spin, and how little respect politicians can have comes to the fore. The attempts to present this as not terrible is pathetic. Wales might be a bit more complicated than the picture elsewhere, but it was still horrific everywhere. We all know Corbyn is not the only reason for their troubles, but the denial is getting silly, and is just not helping anyone.
UKIP – Who? Dead, and should stay that way.
LDs – Not quite as dead, but close to it – as I said, finding it hard going was not entirely unexpected, but while only modest parliamentary gains were hoped for anyway, on this evidence they could end up with even fewer seats. Liberal tories are staying home even as ukippers flock to the Tory banner. I voted LD, but what’s the point? The two party people are right, and we might as well make a straight Tory-Lab fight. They might as well ally with some disenchanted Labour and form the ‘democrat’ party or whatever.
SNP – Fine. Still the dominant party, even if some of their supporters might be gracious enough to admit that relative success is a thing when it comes to opponents. They still have a dominant hand, and victory in their grasp, and it wasn’t a terrible night by any means.
'No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.'
Labour are not even at the IDS stage (IDS won seats at local elections), at least 10 years assuming they get a half decent leader.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/05/babyshambles-singer-pete-doherty-performs-len-pen-protest-rally/
Corbyn: we are "closing the gap on the Conservatives"; winning the general election is a "historic challenge"
https://t.co/NKtONV9w40
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn
It turned out to be wrong ultimately, but I agree in part - Labour do I think need a path to win in their own strength or with the help of a non-toxic party like the Liberal Democrats.
If not, I admire your optimism.
It looks as though he is planning to resign when he gets his arse handed to him.
Please give thanks to the deity of your choice. He is not the only problem, but now if Labour can find someone sane they can begin looking for a solution.
I accept it causes problems with polling data.
I think a lot of the switchers are going to get a taste for voting blue and will keep doing so.
I am half expecting to now see the SNP drift down to 35% - 37% and Labour's performance was better there than expected so they could creep back to 22%/23%.
"Ah, this is obviously some strange use of the word closing that I wasn't previously aware of.”
Corbyn there, the local campaign manager there, dozens of activists - but no Burnham it seems.
You couldnt make it up....
https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/860558519187197952
Would party leaders do better by going to the areas where they lost and boosting morale there so the local losers take the fight to the winners in time for the next election.
Do these idiots realise that isn't helping? OK, I'm an outsider, they don't have to listen to the likes of me, but surely basic common sense says certain tactics, like portraying an easy win as a triumph against the evil government, don't work once you pass a certain point 'No mean feat' to win in Liverpool, really? He might as well spit in the interviewers face or drop trouser on camera that shows so little respect.
I think it was the Tory surge I underestimated - the increased turnout deeply surprises me.
You'd think they were the ones that had routed their opponents.
Bizarre man, with bizarre acolytes around him.
That or they have all gone raving mad.
I think ER is a two way marginal with Labour a poor third on current polling. But I would be happy to be proved wrong.
For what it's worth. Some advice for the Labour Party from a former Tory spin doctor.
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/labour-not-corbyn