Re Cornwall, it hasn't been such a bad result for the LDs as I had been posting. It looks like they will end up on 35 councillors (36 if you include their dead candidate in Bodmin St Petroc), which is +1 on 2013.
The Conservatives have had the better night, going from 31 to 47, with UKIP being the main losers (-8).
Tories already at 43, with a Con and UKIP seat still to declare, so that may go up to 45!
The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%
LD 'actual votes cast' were up about 40%, which tallies with your figures; say 11.3-11.5%.
Re Cornwall, it hasn't been such a bad result for the LDs as I had been posting. It looks like they will end up on 35 councillors (36 if you include their dead candidate in Bodmin St Petroc), which is +1 on 2013.
The Conservatives have had the better night, going from 31 to 47, with UKIP being the main losers (-8).
Tories already at 43, with a Con and UKIP seat still to declare, so that may go up to 45!
Yes, but the LDs - if you include Bodmin St Petroc - will still have added a seat. It's just the Cons will have done much, much better.
On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.
If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.
Lots of ifs, though.
I wonder when the Conservatives last had 8 Glasgow councillors (probably early eighties).
Eight! they had one last time. Whats interesting is how many seats they gained in poor areas. simillar to results in England where tories are having the biggest swings in working class areas. Working class tories are well and truely a thing once more.
As Sion says: "we don't share their core Labour values with the strength we should".
And he would know, having presumably been out knocking on doors, unlike the kids in momentum who still think Corbyn is on course to be PM and introduce the Five Year Plan.
Their last hope for indyref2 any time soon is if Brexit is a monstrous disaster. But even then there might be a desire to huddle together, with their fellow Brits, rather than take even more risk....
Tories on course to win 10 seats from the SNP, possibly.
Re Cornwall, it hasn't been such a bad result for the LDs as I had been posting. It looks like they will end up on 35 councillors (36 if you include their dead candidate in Bodmin St Petroc), which is +1 on 2013.
The Conservatives have had the better night, going from 31 to 47, with UKIP being the main losers (-8).
Tories already at 43, with a Con and UKIP seat still to declare, so that may go up to 45!
Yes, but the LDs - if you include Bodmin St Petroc - will still have added a seat. It's just the Cons will have done much, much better.
According to my numbers they had 43 at dissolution due to defections or perhaps by elections.
And now Scottish Labour will try and ride the Unionist coat-tails...
@kezdugdale: Clearly there's a big backlash against SNP plans for #indyref2 and in large parts of Scotland only Labour can beat the SNP on 8 June (2/2)
Och, don't worry, I'm sure that won't complicate Unionist tactical voting in the slightest.
On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...
Any news on how many of the the ex Kipper SCon candidates got elected today?
Just had Vince Cable and his entourage canvassing in my road. Two of his helpers knocked and asked who i would be supporting and then whether I was for leave or remain. I thought that was a bit blunt so I said "I'm for leave now". Oh and of course that I would be voting for Tania!
@GuardianAnushka: Lord (Jack) McConnell - former Scottish first minister - warns that its possible Labour decline in Scotland cd hit parts of Wales/England.
Just had Vince Cable and his entourage canvassing in my road. Two of his helpers knocked and asked who i would be supporting and then whether I was for leave or remain. I thought that was a bit blunt so I said "I'm for leave now". Oh and of course that I would be voting for Tania!
With UKIP on course for zero seats in the GE and losing all their MEPs after Brexit, that UKIP councillor might be their only elected politician by 2019!
On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...
Which of her old parties ?
I mean, she was in both SLAB and SCON before SNP.
A brief perusal of her statements shows that she is highly adaptable & not troubled by consistency.
On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...
...Which one, she has been Labour and Conservative in the past.
Just catching up. I thought I read on the Sky ticker that Con have got WM and Lab lost Glasgow to NOC. Feeling faint. A large glass of something, I think. Ah, better.
With UKIP on course for zero seats in the GE and losing all their MEPs after Brexit, that UKIP councillor might be their only elected politician by 2019!
If Brexit truly is signed and sealed by then it'd be reminiscent of those Japanese soldiers still fighting the war on remote islands into the 70's.
Seriously though, after this is there not a danger of a nigh on total UKIP vote implosion on June 8th. I mean what the hell is the point in the present circumstance?
@GuardianAnushka: Lord (Jack) McConnell - former Scottish first minister - warns that its possible Labour decline in Scotland cd hit parts of Wales/England.
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
There are still a few Liberal councillors aren't there?
Yes. They came second (albeit very distant) in Liverpool West Derby in 2001 and just about saved deposit there last time I think (Steve Radford). Had small but relevant clusters there and in Exeter (David Morrish and pals) until recently. Radford is rolling on, Morrish retired a few years back (may have passed but not sure). Their other leading light, ex-MP Michael Meadowcroft, made his peace with the Lib Dems about 10 years ago.
Sion Simon making a prat of himself on Sky, blaming his opponent for good fundraising and his own party for turning off voters.
Well he has a point about his own party turning off voters. Labour still in denial about the Corbyn toxicity, "We need more time for people to see and hear Jeremy, then they will change their mind"
On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
I have seen suggestions she might want to rejoin her old party...
Any news on how many of the the ex Kipper SCon candidates got elected today?
Of course I'd forgotten about Braden Northumbrian Party to SLab to SCon Davey! Well done on getting elected today son, your heroic consistency will be a boon to the political arena.
Trying to follow Sion Simon's argument that the Tories had "spent millions in their areas" to get a higher turnout in Solihull.
but didn't he get hammered in dudley? That's not a tory area, is it?
It's a divided area, Dudley itself in the north and Stourbridge and Halesowen in the south which is more Tory.
I think it's clear from the poor tory showing in GM where the tories put all their resources. Money well spent, they must have had private polling with a chance in Tees Valley.
Also Andy burnham like caroline flint, liz kendall and sadique khan are real street fighters in terms of down and dirty politics and campaigning (apperently).
I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.
I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.
I know every single poster has noted this over the past few months, but when you think of the extraordinary transformation Jezza leaving now would bring about, it makes you weep*.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
"Sion Simon making a prat of himself on Sky, blaming his opponent for good fundraising and his own party for turning off voters."
I was surprised that no one mentioned Simon's comments on the voters' comments. The message wasn't about spend. It sounded much more straightforward. Something along the lines "I've been a Labour voters all my life, but I'm going to sit on my hands this time if that twat Corbyn stays." That explains the higher turnout among Tory voters.
Probably too intellectual for IDS, he really is a thicko.
I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.
Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
You are presuming Team Twat have any idea what they are doing. I think it is pretty clear they haven't got the sort of Messina bod telling them Mr Smith at #27 is best targetted via Facebook ad between 7-9pm.
I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.
They'd rather not, thank you very much.
Tory proposals for good govt. around the UK: PR where it saves them from oblivion; FPTP in elections where it gives 70% of the seats on 45% of the vote.
'Large majorities do not make for good govt.' [from memory] The late Francis Pym, before Thatcher sacked him.
18 yrs later Thatcher warned of the dangers of landslides, but she now meant Labour ones.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.
Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.
I'd say for the longer term health it may be a better thing, since we may end up with a Lab or replacement party living other than on the moon.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
Wow, just wow.
Con in power, extraordinary result Lab didn't shed votes to lib dems. Could be worse Lib dems failed to win as many as they needed. Poor Green steady and OK UKIP haha. Very conclusive! SNP. The tide may be receding. PC. Must try harder.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
Indeed.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
Watching where Labour target their resources in the next couple of weeks is going to be really interesting to watch. From those comments, MPs with less than 5k majority have already been told they're on their own.
You are presuming Team Twat have any idea what they are doing. I think it is pretty clear they haven't got the sort of Messina bod telling them Mr Smith at #27 is best targetted via Facebook ad between 7-9pm.
LOL true, they don't give the impression of being prepared for the election at all, more interested in their own internal battles than the big one they face against the electorate nationwide on June 8th.
Only five weeks to wait for the landslide, on today's performance @Tissue_Price has got to be in with a good shout of becoming an MP.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
No, Labour will win in 5 years IF they select a half-decent leader.
Precisely why they have no chance in 5 years, and probably not even 10. Who is this leader? He/she simply does not exist.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
I'm incapable of getting too excited about these results (admittedly, this is probably because I'm a natural pessimist more than anything else.)
I've stuck my neck out and already made my prediction: Con 387, Lab 178. I just don't think the bottom is going to drop completely out of the Labour vote, even accounting for the fact that their performance has been abysmal pretty much everywhere outside of Manchester, Liverpool and (parts of) Wales, and in the latter case the local elections are full of independent candidates, and the performance of local Labour councils backed by the Welsh leadership (which is vastly less toxic than that in London) may be a great deal better than what their Parliamentary candidates are capable of achieving.
There are still no shortage of voters for whom Labour (despite Corbyn, or sometimes because of him) is either a positively attractive prospect, or whom continue to vote according to cultural/brand loyalty. Frankly, I don't even feel completely comfortable with forecasting a majority in three figures, although I think about 80-90 at least ought to be a safe bet.
Talk of the Tories topping 400 and Labour getting smashed to smithereens just sounds too good to be true. And when something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
I hope the Tories on here contemplate that without PR for both Scottish councils and Holyrood there would have been no Tory revival north of the border.
They'd rather not, thank you very much.
Tory proposals for good govt. around the UK: PR where it saves them from oblivion; FPTP in elections where it gives 70% of the seats on 45% of the vote.
'Large majorities do not make for good govt.' [from memory] The late Francis Pym, before Thatcher sacked him.
18 yrs later Thatcher warned of the dangers of landslides, but she now meant Labour ones.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
22 years? No. Just over 20 years ago the Tories lost more than half their MPs and were down to their last county council. 10 years later Sion was confident enough to write his now infomous piece on Labour's next victory. Their time will come again and in 10 years time the political landscape will be very different. Will they win in 2022 (or whenever the next election is)? Probably not. In 2027? I wouldn't bet against it. In fact it will be very unhealthy for there not to be a viable government in waiting by then.
Let us not be complacent. There is a complicated but non-trivial probability that people wanted to give Lab a kicking at the locals to shake them up and warn them that once in government they had better not..that is, they must in future..I mean to say Jeremy Corbyn..
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
The Conservatives could be supremely complacent about this. They're going to win very big indeed.
Which for the long term health of democracy is not a good thing. Though Labour only have themselves to blame.
However a new opposition will emerge, nature abhors a vacuum etc. You are correct, Labour have only themselves to blame.
Con 1883 +557 Lab 1137 -385 Lib Dem 437 -37 Green 40 +6 UKIP 1 -141 Ind 648 -13 SNP 431 -7 PC 202 +33 Other 22 -13
I'm still stunned. I mean, I know I was predicting that something like this would happen this morning but I still can't quite believe it. In Staffordshire even the council estates have voted Tory. The only ward in Cannock that hasn't gone blue is Chadsmoor, and that's not the poorest part of it.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
I'm incapable of getting too excited about these results (admittedly, this is probably because I'm a natural pessimist more than anything else.)
I've stuck my neck out and already made my prediction: Con 387, Lab 178. I just don't think the bottom is going to drop completely out of the Labour vote, even accounting for the fact that their performance has been abysmal pretty much everywhere outside of Manchester, Liverpool and (parts of) Wales, and in the latter case the local elections are full of independent candidates, and the performance of local Labour councils backed by the Welsh leadership (which is vastly less toxic than that in London) may be a great deal better than what their Parliamentary candidates are capable of achieving.
There are still no shortage of voters for whom Labour (despite Corbyn, or sometimes because of him) is either a positively attractive prospect, or whom continue to vote according to cultural/brand loyalty. Frankly, I don't even feel completely comfortable with forecasting a majority in three figures, although I think about 80-90 at least ought to be a safe bet.
Talk of the Tories topping 400 and Labour getting smashed to smithereens just sounds too good to be true. And when something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
Labour's only hope is that some people decide that May should not be given an entirely blank cheque. Failing that, I'd take the worst case prediction for Labour and lob off a further 10 to 15 seats. Voters actively dislike Corbyn. They will go to the polls to vote against him.
Comments
And he would know, having presumably been out knocking on doors, unlike the kids in momentum who still think Corbyn is on course to be PM and introduce the Five Year Plan.
Corbynism continues to sweep the nation.
Scruffy bugger.
Oh and of course that I would be voting for Tania!
I mean, she was in both SLAB and SCON before SNP.
A brief perusal of her statements shows that she is highly adaptable & not troubled by consistency.
Con +3%
Lab -2%
LD +7%
UKIP -8%
Seriously though, after this is there not a danger of a nigh on total UKIP vote implosion on June 8th. I mean what the hell is the point in the present circumstance?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/05/welsh-labour-distance-itself-uk-party-corbyn-general-election
That only leaves economics.
CON 46
LD 37
IND 30
LAB 5
MK 4
Vacant 1
Labour still in denial about the Corbyn toxicity, "We need more time for people to see and hear Jeremy, then they will change their mind"
https://twitter.com/aitchison_david/status/860511757940469761
Of course I'd forgotten about Braden Northumbrian Party to SLab to SCon Davey!
Well done on getting elected today son, your heroic consistency will be a boon to the political arena.
Also Andy burnham like caroline flint, liz kendall and sadique khan are real street fighters in terms of down and dirty politics and campaigning (apperently).
Hahahahhahahahahahahaha......
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
Con 1883 +557
Lab 1137 -385
Lib Dem 437 -37
Green 40 +6
UKIP 1 -141
Ind 648 -13
SNP 431 -7
PC 202 +33
Other 22 -13
OK. I can't work out what the combination of intent and action would be which signifies a Lab majority on June 8th, but let's just not be complacent about this.
"Lab MPs with majorities up to 5,000 have told me they have abandoned hope of retaining their seats"
*joy/sorrow as appropriate.
1) Gedling must be turning into a total shithole - take the 9/4 on a Labour win there with SkyBet.
2) Its a good job Labour are so unpopular or Osborne's metro-mayors would have been nothing more than a job creation scheme for Labour politicians.
3) Labour doing much better in middle class Remain places such as Oxford, Cambridge, Exeter and Norwich than in wwc areas.
4) LibDems losing everywhere - Labour to hold Cambridge 4/1 with SkyBet is good value.
In a way, the fact there are some straws for Labour to clutch at makes it even worse. It means Corbyn will survive. If Manchester or Doncaster or Swansea had gone, surely he would have been diagnosed with some illness or other and had to resign (terminal insanity for letting Diane Abbott out again would cover it). Look at these idiots saying Corbyn will still win it. I'd like to know what they're smoking. Plus, many of these are in Wales - in a national election, that may be shaken up as Carwyn Jones can't shield Corbyn for ever.
Theresa May looks set for 400. Labour looks set for annihilation. 22 years to their next victory?
"Sion Simon making a prat of himself on Sky, blaming his opponent for good fundraising and his own party for turning off voters."
I was surprised that no one mentioned Simon's comments on the voters' comments. The message wasn't about spend. It sounded much more straightforward. Something along the lines "I've been a Labour voters all my life, but I'm going to sit on my hands this time if that twat Corbyn stays." That explains the higher turnout among Tory voters.
Probably too intellectual for IDS, he really is a thicko.
SNP lose MSPs
SNP lose councillors
and soon SNP lose MPs.
12,000 more like it on these results.
PR where it saves them from oblivion; FPTP in elections where it gives 70% of the seats on 45% of the vote.
'Large majorities do not make for good govt.' [from memory]
The late Francis Pym, before Thatcher sacked him.
18 yrs later Thatcher warned of the dangers of landslides, but she now meant Labour ones.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/vote2001/hi/english/talking_point/newsid_1363000/1363792.stm
Con 37
LD 15
Lab 5
Ind 3
http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8403/devon?page=2
The BBC aren't showing the final Devon results yet - could tell me what they are.
LD 7
Lab 7
Ind 3
Grn 1
Lab didn't shed votes to lib dems. Could be worse
Lib dems failed to win as many as they needed. Poor
Green steady and OK
UKIP haha. Very conclusive!
SNP. The tide may be receding.
PC. Must try harder.
It wasn't catastrophically bad enough for Corbyn to go voluntarily.
And with Labour holding firm in the posh areas, the LibDems flopping badly and UKIP disintegrating the Corbynites will continue to believe what they want.
Only five weeks to wait for the landslide, on today's performance @Tissue_Price has got to be in with a good shout of becoming an MP.
I've stuck my neck out and already made my prediction: Con 387, Lab 178. I just don't think the bottom is going to drop completely out of the Labour vote, even accounting for the fact that their performance has been abysmal pretty much everywhere outside of Manchester, Liverpool and (parts of) Wales, and in the latter case the local elections are full of independent candidates, and the performance of local Labour councils backed by the Welsh leadership (which is vastly less toxic than that in London) may be a great deal better than what their Parliamentary candidates are capable of achieving.
There are still no shortage of voters for whom Labour (despite Corbyn, or sometimes because of him) is either a positively attractive prospect, or whom continue to vote according to cultural/brand loyalty. Frankly, I don't even feel completely comfortable with forecasting a majority in three figures, although I think about 80-90 at least ought to be a safe bet.
Talk of the Tories topping 400 and Labour getting smashed to smithereens just sounds too good to be true. And when something sounds too good to be true, it usually is.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/0808d1ce-6a14-4108-ae2f-14df2435133e/cornwall-council
Well at least OGH now knows why May was campaigning there this week.