10 facts that help explain the national share results
Earlier I posted the BBC’s national share figures, with a note about how they are calculated. (See 2.53pm) Here they are again.
Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%
Conservative lead: 11 points
Last night Labour sources were saying that these figures would provide the benchmark by which they would judge the elections. They may feel differently today. Here are 10 facts that put the national share figures into perspective.
1 - The Tory PNS figure is the highest it has been in local elections since 2008 (when it was 41%).
2 - The Labour PNS figure is the lowest it has been in local elections since 2010 (when it was 27%).
3 - The Tory PNS lead over Labour is the highest it has been since 2009 (when it was 15 points)
4 - The Lib Dem PNS figure is the highest it has been since 2010 (when it was 26%).
5- The Ukip PNS figure is lower than it has ever been (although the BBC only started producing a national share figure for Ukip in 2013) and it is less than half what it was last year (when it was 12%).
6 - The Tory lead is almost double what local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher predicted, on the basis of how parties have been performing in local elections recently.
7 - The PNS figures suggest Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is going backwards (it was on 31% PNS in last year’s local elections).
8 - And the figures suggest the Tories are surging ahead since last year (when they were on 30% PNS).
9 - The Tory lead is bigger than it was at the general election, when the Conservatives got 38% of the GB vote and Labour got 31%.
10 - But the Tory lead is smaller than opinion polls suggest. The Financial Times’ opinion poll tracker, which is based on a time-weighted average of all the main pollster’s most recent polls, currently has the Tories on 46% and Labour on 29%. The PNS figure could be taken as evidence that the polls are overstating the Tory lead, although it is only a reflection of what would happen if people voted across the whole of Britain as they did in the locals. As explained earlier, in general elections some people vote differently, and the 1980s experience suggests the governing party could do even better in a general election.
I said last week if Andy Street wins Mrs May is on course for a majority of 150 plus
The Andy Street victory is the best result of all for the Tories, it suggests seats in the West Midlands like Walsall which have not gone Tory since Thatcher won her 100+ majorities in 1983 and 1987 will turn blue in May and she will indeed get her landslide
10 facts that help explain the national share results
Earlier I posted the BBC’s national share figures, with a note about how they are calculated. (See 2.53pm) Here they are again.
Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%
Conservative lead: 11 points
Last night Labour sources were saying that these figures would provide the benchmark by which they would judge the elections. They may feel differently today. Here are 10 facts that put the national share figures into perspective.
1 - The Tory PNS figure is the highest it has been in local elections since 2008 (when it was 41%).
2 - The Labour PNS figure is the lowest it has been in local elections since 2010 (when it was 27%).
3 - The Tory PNS lead over Labour is the highest it has been since 2009 (when it was 15 points)
4 - The Lib Dem PNS figure is the highest it has been since 2010 (when it was 26%).
5- The Ukip PNS figure is lower than it has ever been (although the BBC only started producing a national share figure for Ukip in 2013) and it is less than half what it was last year (when it was 12%).
6 - The Tory lead is almost double what local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher predicted, on the basis of how parties have been performing in local elections recently.
7 - The PNS figures suggest Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is going backwards (it was on 31% PNS in last year’s local elections).
8 - And the figures suggest the Tories are surging ahead since last year (when they were on 30% PNS).
9 - The Tory lead is bigger than it was at the general election, when the Conservatives got 38% of the GB vote and Labour got 31%.
10 - But the Tory lead is smaller than opinion polls suggest. The Financial Times’ opinion poll tracker, which is based on a time-weighted average of all the main pollster’s most recent polls, currently has the Tories on 46% and Labour on 29%. The PNS figure could be taken as evidence that the polls are overstating the Tory lead, although it is only a reflection of what would happen if people voted across the whole of Britain as they did in the locals. As explained earlier, in general elections some people vote differently, and the 1980s experience suggests the governing party could do even better in a general election.
Well, as someone said earlier: wait until Corbyn for PM is actually on the ballot paper in June.
Sion Simon looks like he's about to cry. My heart goes out to him, not.
I would cry to if I was so close yet so far!
But we don't need his type of politician, we have enough. i.e. someone who waves the st.george flag after brexit but also holds segregated meetings based on sex.
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
6 - The Tory lead is almost double what local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher predicted, on the basis of how parties have been performing in local elections recently.
Again if the Tory lead is almost double what Rallings and Thrasher predicted ... and based on this result Rallings and Thrasher are now predicting a rather modest Tory majority ... just what would Rallings and Thrasher have been predicting for Parliament had they been right on today's results?
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
I'll come back to that analysis when Ive stopped laughing :-)
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
Awesome news for the West Midlands, exactly the sort of person we should be encouraging into politics. Well done to Andy and all that worked to get him elected over the past six months.
And up against exactly the person who shouldn't be.
Indeed. If you're going to have regional mayors, they should be big local personalities who can influence the local agenda and get people from outside interested in their area. Think what Boris and Ken did for London.
Putting a soon-to-be-redundant MEP and career politician up against one of the best business leaders in the country was never going to work, although the Labour brand got Sion Simon to within 3,800 votes in half a million.
Shortly there will be a post on PoliticalBetting about the West Midlands mayoralty, in which the poster will begin with words other than "shortly there will be..."
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
Well, I was right about what would happen to SCon and wrong about what would happen with SNP and SLab, I thought 50 seats swappage between SNP and SLab more than what happened.
The West Midlands mayoralty puts the seal on what has been a spectacular set of results for the Conservatives. They're on course for a huge three figure majority.
Commiserations to @Pulpstar for what was a value loser tip of Sion Simon.
Having been a political anorak for about 50 years - my expectation is that today's results indicate that Labour will get less than 150 seats and the Tories are likely to be well over 400. I also think the SNP could get around 40. One should not forget the Tory media are yet to really set their sights on Corbyn. It will only get worse from here
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
The Ruth Davidson party could only get 14 seats more than SLab?! There has to have been a mistake somewhere surely...
The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%
The West Midlands mayoralty puts the seal on what has been a spectacular set of results for the Conservatives. They're on course for a huge three figure majority.
Commiserations to @Pulpstar for what was a value loser tip of Sion Simon.
Indeed.
There was no justification for his odds being above evens.
Respect to @pulpstar for seeing clearly through the fog.
It seems Liverpool may be the Labour equivalent of Berlin. Corbyn hunkering down in the city and telling country it can learn from the way the city votes.
The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%
LD 'actual votes cast' were up about 40%, which tallies with your figures; say 11.3-11.5%.
The West Midlands mayoralty puts the seal on what has been a spectacular set of results for the Conservatives. They're on course for a huge three figure majority.
Commiserations to @Pulpstar for what was a value loser tip of Sion Simon.
No worries. If all tips win then you're not making enough. The 7-4 was still wrong I believe
The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.
If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.
Lots of ifs, though.
The next time the Scots have another independence referendum will be when oil is north of $150. Which might be... errr... never.
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
The Ruth Davidson party could only get 14 seats more than SLab?! There has to have been a mistake somewhere surely...
The projected national voteshare is Tory 38% Lab 27% LD 18% UKIP 5%. Given a lot of that LD local vote will be a Tory national vote I could see a general election result of Tory 45% Lab 27% LD 11% UKIP 5%
I think Labour will drop to or below 25% in the general...
The next time the Scots have another independence referendum will be when oil is north of $150. Which might be... errr... never.
Is there anything short of perhaps a major Middle East war that would send oil prices shooting up again, or have renewables and shale permanently changed the picture?
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
Well, I was right about what would happen to SCon and wrong about what would happen with SNP and SLab, I thought 50 seats swappage between SNP and SLab more than what happened.
I think I predicted 200 gains for the Tories but that was because I was expecting the SLAB vote to fold more than it did. And as a Unionist I am perfectly ok with that.
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.
If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.
If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.
Lots of ifs, though.
I wonder when the Conservatives last had 8 Glasgow councillors (probably early eighties).
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.
Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.
Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.
Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.
If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?
If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.
And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.
I would advise the Tories to stay a million miles away from interfering with the CPS. Imagine what would happen if the CPS said they had been leant on over the timing of an announcement. It would be worse than the decision itself. The Tories have had plenty of time to ready themselves for bad news, and even if it does come to that, it won't make any difference to the outcome of the election.
No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.
Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.
Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.
Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.
If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?
If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.
Managing the media reaction is easy - they can say very little except that person X has been charged with offence Y, then legally they have to shut up. The story will be chip paper the following day.
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
There are still a few Liberal councillors aren't there?
No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.
Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.
Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.
Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.
If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?
If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.
And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.
I would advise the Tories to stay a million miles away from interfering with the CPS. Imagine what would happen if the CPS said they had been leant on over the timing of an announcement. It would be worse than the decision itself. The Tories have had plenty of time to ready themselves for bad news, and even if it does come to that, it won't make any difference to the outcome of the election.
Yeah, in no way was I suggesting they should do that! They should absolutely do nothing of the sort
What a dreadful oaf Sion Simon is. God, it's no wonder he lost.
Agreed. It would have been a huge slap in the face to the West Midlands if he had squeaked it. As it is, the region now has a hugely successful business champion behind it. Who was prepared to put a big chunk of his own money into getting the job. Exactly what the West Midlands needs.
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
Given that the UKIP MEPs will be out of a job when we leave, how many elected UKIP people are left? I assume there are lots in district councils, London and the Welsh assembly.
No point putting any spin on this, today has been a disaster for Labour.
Tory 120+ majority pretty much nailed on all things being equal.
Tory electoral fraud scandal only hope for Labour.
Yes - I think the only thing that could go wrong now for Con is the CPS.
If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?
If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.
And the deadlines for charges are set by when the expenses were initially declared - so any day now as the election was on the 7th of May 2015.
I would advise the Tories to stay a million miles away from interfering with the CPS. Imagine what would happen if the CPS said they had been leant on over the timing of an announcement. It would be worse than the decision itself. The Tories have had plenty of time to ready themselves for bad news, and even if it does come to that, it won't make any difference to the outcome of the election.
Yes - fair enough (it was my suggestion, not Rob's).
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
There are still a few Liberal councillors aren't there?
Re Cornwall, it hasn't been such a bad result for the LDs as I had been posting. It looks like they will end up on 35 councillors (36 if you include their dead candidate in Bodmin St Petroc), which is +1 on 2013.
The Conservatives have had the better night, going from 31 to 47, with UKIP being the main losers (-8).
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
There are still a few Liberal councillors aren't there?
They lost 3 last night according to BBC data.
I even have a special column for them in my spreadsheet. There were two in North Yorkshire (lost to Con) and one in Worcestershire (lost to the fake liberals)
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
That vote projected on to Holyrood 2021 would, I presume, produce a weak minority SNP government, and no indyref2.
If TMay decides that Sturgeon can go fish (which I think she will), and if the Nats do weaken further at Holrood, then we might not see another indyref til the late 2020s, 2030s? When the Nats next win a proper majority.
Lots of ifs, though.
I wonder when the Conservatives last had 8 Glasgow councillors (probably early eighties).
Eight! they had one last time. Whats interesting is how many seats they gained in poor areas. simillar to results in England where tories are having the biggest swings in working class areas. Working class tories are well and truely a thing once more.
I'll be interested to see where and how the SNP seats were lost.
In Perth and Kinross the SNP actually gained 3 in Perth itself whilst losing 7 in the 8 more rural wards. (Including one to Labour bizarrely). On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
The solitary UKIPper reminds me of the odd SDP councillors that were knocking about until quite recently in Bridlington, somewhere in Wales, and a solitary Green defector (obviously with a GSOH) in Solihull.
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
There are still a few Liberal councillors aren't there?
They lost 3 last night according to BBC data.
I even have a special column for them in my spreadsheet. There were two in North Yorkshire (lost to Con) and one in Worcestershire (lost to the fake liberals)
They used to have a hard core of seats in West Yorks iirc.
And now Scottish Labour will try and ride the Unionist coat-tails...
@kezdugdale: Clearly there's a big backlash against SNP plans for #indyref2 and in large parts of Scotland only Labour can beat the SNP on 8 June (2/2)
Comments
10 facts that help explain the national share results
Earlier I posted the BBC’s national share figures, with a note about how they are calculated. (See 2.53pm) Here they are again.
Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%
Conservative lead: 11 points
Last night Labour sources were saying that these figures would provide the benchmark by which they would judge the elections. They may feel differently today. Here are 10 facts that put the national share figures into perspective.
1 - The Tory PNS figure is the highest it has been in local elections since 2008 (when it was 41%).
2 - The Labour PNS figure is the lowest it has been in local elections since 2010 (when it was 27%).
3 - The Tory PNS lead over Labour is the highest it has been since 2009 (when it was 15 points)
4 - The Lib Dem PNS figure is the highest it has been since 2010 (when it was 26%).
5- The Ukip PNS figure is lower than it has ever been (although the BBC only started producing a national share figure for Ukip in 2013) and it is less than half what it was last year (when it was 12%).
6 - The Tory lead is almost double what local election experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher predicted, on the basis of how parties have been performing in local elections recently.
7 - The PNS figures suggest Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is going backwards (it was on 31% PNS in last year’s local elections).
8 - And the figures suggest the Tories are surging ahead since last year (when they were on 30% PNS).
9 - The Tory lead is bigger than it was at the general election, when the Conservatives got 38% of the GB vote and Labour got 31%.
10 - But the Tory lead is smaller than opinion polls suggest. The Financial Times’ opinion poll tracker, which is based on a time-weighted average of all the main pollster’s most recent polls, currently has the Tories on 46% and Labour on 29%. The PNS figure could be taken as evidence that the polls are overstating the Tory lead, although it is only a reflection of what would happen if people voted across the whole of Britain as they did in the locals. As explained earlier, in general elections some people vote differently, and the 1980s experience suggests the governing party could do even better in a general election.
But we don't need his type of politician, we have enough. i.e. someone who waves the st.george flag after brexit but also holds segregated meetings based on sex.
SLAB only 14 councillors behind the Tories. I think they will be secretly well chuffed with that. SNP clawed back some losses to end 7 down and are the dominant party now in Scottish LG although they don't have a majority on a single Council. Going to make unilateral referendums just a tad problematic.
chortle
Putting a soon-to-be-redundant MEP and career politician up against one of the best business leaders in the country was never going to work, although the Labour brand got Sion Simon to within 3,800 votes in half a million.
but there are more pandas in Scotlnd than SNP run councils
Lab -107
PC +33
Con +80
LD -11
Ukip -2
Green +1
Commiserations to @Pulpstar for what was a value loser tip of Sion Simon.
they also have labour to win more votes than LD at 1.08.
If I were them I would try to stall the CPS announcement until after the GE - could they argue it would be wrong to make announcement during campaign?
If not, they should be working very hard right now on exactly how to manage the media reaction if CPS announces charges.
"Unprecedented numbers are heading to the doorstep all over the country."
"Labour’s army of campaigners"
There was no justification for his odds being above evens.
Respect to @pulpstar for seeing clearly through the fog.
LOL.
That's a rather dismal result for the SNP.
https://twitter.com/danielhewittitv/status/860523628148006912
https://twitter.com/thesnp/status/860528352859480065
SNP 431 (-7)
CON 276 (+164)
LAB 262 (-133)
With all the councils now declared Labour end in 3rd Place
They have, I believe, up to 5 weeks from election day to submit their return.
Some filed pretty quickly, some did it within a fortnight, and some waited until the last minute.
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/860530884100993024
Wonder whether a lone UKIP survivor will get a mention on PB in 2042-ish? Or even a Labour or LD survivor the way the wind is blowing just now!
@JeremyCliffe: Hunch: the Street and Burnham elections will see the locus of Britain's metropolitan revival shift from Manchester to Birmingham.
And in my view campaigning makes very little difference either.
Why is it that turnout is never significantly higher in marginals (as a whole) - yet that is where all the campaigning is focussed.
2012 (estimated due to boundary change): SNP 10, Ind 10, Con 3, Lab 3
2017: SNP 9, Ind 8, Con 8, Lab 1
Operation "Get Robertson" in full swing.
In other news: Conservative win confirmed for Cambs & P'boro mayor
Street -15
Rotheram + 30
How about their one councillor, obviously a winner?
Now Con +16.
That explains so much.
SNP 431 (-7)
CON 276 (+164)
LAB 262 (-133)
Wonder what will happen to those next time
The Conservatives have had the better night, going from 31 to 47, with UKIP being the main losers (-8).
On the face of the results here and the margins involved of the 1st preference votes (SNP only had one person elected from 1st preference votes, the Tories had 1 elected in every ward)combined with the showing in Clacks it is possible that Tasmina is also under pressure as Pete Wishart next month. Indeed the consensus at the count was that if the other parties had put up a 2nd candidate in certain wards the SNP would of been -7 overall and not just -4.
@kezdugdale: Clearly there's a big backlash against SNP plans for #indyref2 and in large parts of Scotland only Labour can beat the SNP on 8 June (2/2)