I will give you two - East Lothian - Edingburgh North & Leith. East Renfrewshire looks like a three-way contest. I am half expecting to now see the SNP drift down to 35% - 37% and Labour's performance was better there than expected so they could creep back to 22%/23%.
Two isn't several, but as I didn't ask for an exhaustive list that's fair enough. I will add those to my watch list.
I think ER is a two way marginal with Labour a poor third on current polling. But I would be happy to be proved wrong.
ER is a three way marginal - Labour's candidate was a leading figure in the Better Together campaign and is likely to make it more difficult for the Tories to pick up Labour pro-Union voters. I also expect Edingburgh South to be held. Re - current polling in Scotland - Labour probably polled only a couple of points lower than 2015 this week when allowance is made for the significant vote share received by Independents. Labour outperformed the polls in last year's Holyrood elections and have done so again. Perhaps they will end up close to the Westminster share won in 2015.
Good advice, but Labour lack balls (not Ed!) as we have seen from recent history!
Maybe the thought of losing their own jobs will focus minds?
But seriously, what on Earth are the sensible left supposed to do, we need an Opposition which isn't being provided, and right now it looks like Corbyn's going nowhere even in the teeth of a landslide.
So it's either a challenge done properly, a bunch of defections or a new party. Good luck, whichever they choose. If they have the balls (not Ed) to actually do it.
Has someone solved the BBC NEV [ or what ever it is called ] ?
38 + 27 + 15 [LD ? ] + 5 [ UKIP ] + 5 SNP . Who are the others ? It cannot be IND or PC. There are very few IND in the general election.
AIUI the way they do it is that they ignore Nats and Ulster - or rather, they lump them together in a black box called "others" but don't try to forecast them in detail, not least because in most years there's no elections in Scotland/Wales/NI. They concentrate on trying to translate Con/Lab/LD/UKIP local votes into the final result of a GE, based on past correlations, even when they're only voting in England. So for instance, even in years where independents get 10% of the local vote, that's "translated" into only 1 or two seats in Westminster. Obviously that's because very few independents ever have the organisation to win a Westminster seat but the model doesn't need to know that, it just needs to know that independent votes seldom translate to Westminster.
The Tories are accepting into their ranks people who are socially conservative already: the WWC. Where they previously differed was on economics and the welfare state: but now May can beat the Brexit drum and reassure them she is 'one of us'. So it's sort of a good fit.
I think a lot of the switchers are going to get a taste for voting blue and will keep doing so.
This has the feel of similar realignments that have happened in US politics - the South deserting the Dems and turning to the GOP, and now the WWC in the Rust Belt doing likewise. I don't know how far that has happened with white catholics yet, but if they are still Dem, that is the next bloc I would expect to cross the divide.
I agree, this realignment of the British WWC with a Centrist (on economic issues) Tory party has the feel of something that can become permanent, but not if taken for granted.
Comments
Re - current polling in Scotland - Labour probably polled only a couple of points lower than 2015 this week when allowance is made for the significant vote share received by Independents. Labour outperformed the polls in last year's Holyrood elections and have done so again. Perhaps they will end up close to the Westminster share won in 2015.
But seriously, what on Earth are the sensible left supposed to do, we need an Opposition which isn't being provided, and right now it looks like Corbyn's going nowhere even in the teeth of a landslide.
So it's either a challenge done properly, a bunch of defections or a new party. Good luck, whichever they choose. If they have the balls (not Ed) to actually do it.
AIUI the way they do it is that they ignore Nats and Ulster - or rather, they lump them together in a black box called "others" but don't try to forecast them in detail, not least because in most years there's no elections in Scotland/Wales/NI. They concentrate on trying to translate Con/Lab/LD/UKIP local votes into the final result of a GE, based on past correlations, even when they're only voting in England. So for instance, even in years where independents get 10% of the local vote, that's "translated" into only 1 or two seats in Westminster. Obviously that's because very few independents ever have the organisation to win a Westminster seat but the model doesn't need to know that, it just needs to know that independent votes seldom translate to Westminster.
There's a bit of explanation here :
https://electionsetc.com/2016/05/04/calculating-the-local-elections-projected-national-share-pns-in-2015-and-2016/
We hear the abandonment of sub 5000 majorities.
We assume this implies focusing resources on the 5000 to 10000 majority band.
Will those in the party office distribute resources equally, or will defending MPs who are moderates be treated better than Corbynites?
Can the party organisation have an influence on the make up of the party in the next Parliament by directing resources?
"Follow the Blair-Campbell playbook; five or so pledges, that will all fit on one business card."
Or a very large tomb-stone....
I agree, this realignment of the British WWC with a Centrist (on economic issues) Tory party has the feel of something that can become permanent, but not if taken for granted.
NEW THREAD
You're down this year.
And an especially disappointing result in North Ayrshire - I fear for the wellbeing of Malcolm's turnips.