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(((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen 10h10 hours ago
I can hardly kvetch about metropolitan snobbery but Aberdeenshire is voting in this election too. Scotland exists outside Glasgow/Edinburgh.
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The 2015 Tory lead was actually 6.6%NickPalmer said:
No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong?BenedictWhite said:
That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week
Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.
That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.0 -
Which makes it even more necessary we have a tough leader like May at the helm not Corbynsurbiton said:
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.foxinsoxuk said:
May's campaign is not going so well. Perhaps us PB Progressive Allies have had a good week.surbiton said:
With tactical voting , this could be interesting !TheScreamingEagles said:New @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 31 (+2) LD 11 (+1) UKIP 6 (-1) Grn 2 (-1)
Changes since last Wed0 -
6.6% actually!HYUFD said:
Even so the Tories ended up 7% aheadjustin124 said:
Read that again! The final Opinium poll actually had the Tories 1% ahead!HYUFD said:
Opinium has also consistently had Labour higher than other pollsters and may not have made as many adjustments since the last election as the likes of yougov and ICM, ORB may be similar. The final Opinium poll for the last general election had Labour on 35% and the Tories 34%, Labour were 5% too high and the Tories 3% too lowMortimer said:
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....Black_Rook said:When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html0 -
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she'd be sitting pretty.surbiton said:I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
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44/31 is exactly the margin the Tories lost by in 1997. It's a big defeat by any yardstick.BenedictWhite said:
That doesn't seem to be reflected in the latest Yougov poll. I wonder who's got it wrong or if they are holding their noses and voting Labour anyway. Perhaps that's what they tell the polsters but will abstain?TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”0 -
Or its culture of Westminster democracy, its language and its law courtsCyan said:
It's got fewer embassies than each of the four other members of the UN Security Council and even than Germany.HYUFD said:
The UK is the only EU nation where a majority of its exports go outside the EU and the only one to have had an Empire with colonies in every inhabited continentSouthamObserver said:
Not in business.HYUFD said:
No, Germany will always dominate the EU see Greece and the UK has always been the most global of the main European powerswilliamglenn said:
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.Disraeli said:We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
But its culture of tax-dodging and hiding money law of equity has been adopted around the world, and Russian-speaking businessmen with unclear sources of wealth oligarchs dig its chancery court and its elite boarding schools.0 -
Not sure I buy that. The polls would have moved like they did this time, just earlier. We'd now be several weeks into a campaign and who knows where the polls would be.williamglenn said:
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she's be sitting pretty.surbiton said:I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
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You are as naïve as you are stupid in that case. The government doesn't give a shit about us lot overseas. We aren't paying any tax and most are a just a net drain on resources. The emigrants/expats will be sold down the river to get a decent Brexit deal if that it what is necessary. On the whole we don't vote, we don't pay tax and we piss off the locals. Of all the groups involved with brexit expats are easily the most expendable to the government. That's the honest truth, and I say that as one. Anyone in that group who believes otherwise is kidding themselves.SouthamObserver said:The British government will not make it more dangerous for British citizens to live, work and holiday in Europe, or do anything that may increase security risks at home. I am surprised you think it will. We will have to agree to disagree.
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It may well be that a weak national narrative is an advantage for Labour, running a Corbynite campaign in parts, and a Kendallite campaign in others, pro Leave here, pro Remain there. With the absence of TV debates to force more cohesion, and the likelihood of cursory rushed manifestos full of platitudes from all parties, it is more viable than ever to run an "all things to all people" campaign.BenedictWhite said:
That doesn't seem to be reflected in the latest Yougov poll. I wonder who's got it wrong or if they are holding their noses and voting Labour anyway. Perhaps that's what they tell the polsters but will abstain?TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
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I mentioned the NFL Draft the other day. It finished today. It was in Philadelphia. Philadelphia fans are tough - many years ago when Santa Claus came onto the field at halftime in an NFL game, Eagles fans booed him and threw snowballs and cans at him.
A fan tells me ------
NFL fans know that Eagles fans hate the Cowboys. Most NFL fans also hate commissioner Roger Goodell. Every time Goodell came on stage, a lusty BOO! came up from the audience. Every time the Cowboys were mentioned, the predictable BOO! came. So on Friday night when Goodell came on to introduce Cowboys legend Drew Pearson to announce the Cowboys second round pick, who stuck it big time to Eagles fans, this happened....
It has to be simply the greatest Draft pick announcement in history.
The Dallas Cowboys - America's Team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGCA05Jdjqs
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You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........CarlottaVance said:
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGovBlack_Rook said:
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”0 -
Yes, statistically 7% not 6% and not 8%justin124 said:
6.6% actually!HYUFD said:
Even so the Tories ended up 7% aheadjustin124 said:
Read that again! The final Opinium poll actually had the Tories 1% ahead!HYUFD said:
Opinium has also consistently had Labour higher than other pollsters and may not have made as many adjustments since the last election as the likes of yougov and ICM, ORB may be similar. The final Opinium poll for the last general election had Labour on 35% and the Tories 34%, Labour were 5% too high and the Tories 3% too lowMortimer said:
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....Black_Rook said:When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html0 -
Kevin Hague @kevverage
the SNP's warped worldview: as the dominant Scottish party they're outraged that Scottish Labour should have the audacity to attack them
Joanna Cherry QC MP @joannaccherry
Why are @scottishlabour approaching #GE17 by attacking @theSNP? Why not take the fight to the Tories? So badly advised it's tragic #VoteSNP0 -
He met him quite a while ago....surbiton said:
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........CarlottaVance said:
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGovBlack_Rook said:
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”0 -
Link to the Queen's "eulogy" pleasesurbiton said:
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........CarlottaVance said:
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGovBlack_Rook said:
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”0 -
I take it he was the same person and without whom the peace process would not have happened, right ?RobD said:
He met him quite a while ago....surbiton said:
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........CarlottaVance said:
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGovBlack_Rook said:
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”0 -
The morning thread is for my fellow Edward de VereShakespeare fans.
My knowledge of classical history is only surpassed by my love and knowledge of Shakespeare.0 -
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?HYUFD said:
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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Ok, message,if that makes you happy.CarlottaVance said:
Link to the Queen's "eulogy" pleasesurbiton said:
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........CarlottaVance said:
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGovBlack_Rook said:
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/martin-mcguinness-dies-queen-to-send-message-to-widow-of-sinn-fein-veteran-a3495531.html0 -
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
Meanwhile Lib Dems on 8, 10, 11. Nothing to write home about. Will locals lead to breakthrough or could the story be it's all hype?0 -
President Trump is having a rally in Pennsylvania instead of going to the lefty whingefest at the White House Correspondents Dinner.
They are just starting right now. Vice President Pence is on the stage at the moment warming the audience up. It's live here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fucqG4Z3N2k0 -
I don't think "private message to widow" quite counts as a "eulogy" do you?surbiton said:
Ok, message,if that makes you happy.CarlottaVance said:
Link to the Queen's "eulogy" pleasesurbiton said:
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........CarlottaVance said:
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGovBlack_Rook said:
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/martin-mcguinness-dies-queen-to-send-message-to-widow-of-sinn-fein-veteran-a3495531.html0 -
That's called black propaganda. And wishful thinking.TheScreamingEagles said:A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
Do the working class voters go on to say "I wouldn't mind my mum waiting for 10 years for her hip operation, and having to pay her life's savings to a Tesco hospital to get it. That would be far preferable to having a prime minister who said favourable things about Irish republicanism in the 1980s, and who doesn't bow and scrape to the royal family"?
You're trolling, right, TSE?0 -
We have a UK Parliament not a GB onejustin124 said:
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?HYUFD said:
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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For how much longer?HYUFD said:
We have a UK Parliament not a GB onejustin124 said:
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?HYUFD said:
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FT4_Fefew78surbiton said:I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
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Trump being introduced now in Harrisburg PAGeoffM said:President Trump is having a rally in Pennsylvania instead of going to the lefty whingefest at the White House Correspondents Dinner.
They are just starting right now. Vice President Pence is on the stage at the moment warming the audience up. It's live here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fucqG4Z3N2k0 -
Strategy wise, I'm a bit surprised she didn't make invoking A50 conditional on a tory majority government.williamglenn said:
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she's be sitting pretty.surbiton said:I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
"Give me a mandate - and at 6.13 tomorrow - I'll be catching the Eurostar to Brussels and personally handing this letter to Mr Junker."
The optics would have been incredible. A very real, tangible and immediate *thing* that would happen if the red brexiteers voted tory.0 -
Some of us ex-pats are still paying tax (well National Insurance) to the UK, voluntarily. It helps us keep entitlement to a UK Old Age Pension plus contributory benefits like JSA should we return to the UK.MaxPB said:
You are as naïve as you are stupid in that case. The government doesn't give a shit about us lot overseas. We aren't paying any tax and most are a just a net drain on resources. The emigrants/expats will be sold down the river to get a decent Brexit deal if that it what is necessary. On the whole we don't vote, we don't pay tax and we piss off the locals. Of all the groups involved with brexit expats are easily the most expendable to the government. That's the honest truth, and I say that as one. Anyone in that group who believes otherwise is kidding themselves.SouthamObserver said:The British government will not make it more dangerous for British citizens to live, work and holiday in Europe, or do anything that may increase security risks at home. I am surprised you think it will. We will have to agree to disagree.
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With the SNP falling back, the Tories ahead in Wales and the DUP still the largest party in Northern Ireland permanentlywilliamglenn said:
For how much longer?HYUFD said:
We have a UK Parliament not a GB onejustin124 said:
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?HYUFD said:
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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Then it would have just turned into a second referendum.Pong said:
Strategy wise, I'm a bit surprised she didn't make invoking A50 conditional on a tory majority government.williamglenn said:
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she's be sitting pretty.surbiton said:I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
"Give me a mandate - and at 6.13 tomorrow - I'll be catching the Eurostar to brussels with this letter in my hand!"
The optics would have been incredible.0 -
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
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Yougov for instance have included more older voters since 2015 and more of the politically disengaged, I have seen no such changes from Opiniumviewcode said:
Have you got a link for that? Genuine question.HYUFD said:...as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodology
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/0 -
Brilliant! Way to go Drew!Tim_B said:I mentioned the NFL Draft the other day. It finished today. It was in Philadelphia. Philadelphia fans are tough - many years ago when Santa Claus came onto the field at halftime in an NFL game, Eagles fans booed him and threw snowballs and cans at him.
A fan tells me ------
NFL fans know that Eagles fans hate the Cowboys. Most NFL fans also hate commissioner Roger Goodell. Every time Goodell came on stage, a lusty BOO! came up from the audience. Every time the Cowboys were mentioned, the predictable BOO! came. So on Friday night when Goodell came on to introduce Cowboys legend Drew Pearson to announce the Cowboys second round pick, who stuck it big time to Eagles fans, this happened....
It has to be simply the greatest Draft pick announcement in history.
The Dallas Cowboys - America's Team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGCA05Jdjqs
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I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
Gaaah, that's from December 2015: they'll have changed it twice since then. That post somebody linked to earlier (this image) indicates that TouGov are now poling on the liberal/authoritarian axis: as that became fashionable post the referendum I assume they have changed it since the link you gave me.HYUFD said:Yougov for instance have included more older voters since 2015 and more of the politically disengaged, I have seen no such changes from Opinium
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
However, unsarcastically, thank you for replying meaningfully: it is helpful, thank you.0 -
Labour's predicted vote share as shown in polls conducted since the election announcement (source: 16 polls reported at Wikipedia):
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How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
Thanks and I expect they have amended it a bit as you say but changes have clearly been made since the election, goodnightviewcode said:
Gaaah, that's from December 2015: they'll have changed it twice since then. That post somebody linked to earlier (this image) indicates that TouGov are now poling on the liberal/authoritarian axis: as that became fashionable post the referendum I assume they have changed it since the link you gave me.HYUFD said:Yougov for instance have included more older voters since 2015 and more of the politically disengaged, I have seen no such changes from Opinium
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
However, unsarcastically, thank you for replying meaningfully: it is helpful, thank you.0 -
Thought this was funny.
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Indeed - but the polls give us GB figures.HYUFD said:
We have a UK Parliament not a GB onejustin124 said:
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?HYUFD said:
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodologySouthamObserver said:I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
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They've already got it. They give it back if you win.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
Oh no...please, let's not start posting crappy campaign images on here.0
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Mr moneybags, our TSE....OUT said:
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
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That would be better, yes. I just took them in the order they're in at Wikipedia (by last day of data collection, and if that's the same for two or more polls, then probably just by whenever someone felt like posting them), and spaced them out evenly horizontally.RobD said:
Hm, x axis should be days, surely?Cyan said:Labour's predicted vote share as shown in polls conducted since the election announcement:
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Yup, bankrupt you and send in the ballifs.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/article-528603/Pundit-Loughrans-bankruptcy-riddle.html0 -
If anything that causes Labour's performance to look worse, since there haven't been 16 days since the announcement!Cyan said:
That would be better, yes. I just took them in the order they're in at Wikipedia (by last day of data collection, and if that's the same for two or more polls, then probably just by whenever someone felt like posting them), and spaced them out evenly horizontally.RobD said:
Hm, x axis should be days, surely?Cyan said:Labour's predicted vote share as shown in polls conducted since the election announcement:
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Why didn't Loughran just send them the money ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, bankrupt you and send in the ballifs.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/article-528603/Pundit-Loughrans-bankruptcy-riddle.html0 -
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.OUT said:
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
Trump lists countries with whom he has great relationships: Number one is Germany. No mention of Brexit at all in his tour d'horizon.0
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You have magnificent balls, sir.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, bankrupt you and send in the ballifs.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/article-528603/Pundit-Loughrans-bankruptcy-riddle.html 0 -
I suspect that if Yougov were using the same methodology it employed in 2015 the Tory lead would now be in single figures.0
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Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
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Yet he invited May first to the White House and when he did invite Merkel could barely conceal his distaste. However the Brexit vote was to regain sovereignty and control of free movement, it happened well before Trump was elected, if anything Trump rode the Brexit wave not the reversewilliamglenn said:Trump lists countries with whom he has great relationships: Number one is Germany. No mention of Brexit at all in his tour d'horizon.
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No idea. Especially for such a pidling amount.Pulpstar said:
Why didn't Loughran just send them the money ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, bankrupt you and send in the ballifs.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/article-528603/Pundit-Loughrans-bankruptcy-riddle.html0 -
Probably sums up what he thought about May after meeting her doesn't it?HYUFD said:
Yet he invited May first to the White House and when he did invite Merkel could barely conceal his distastewilliamglenn said:Trump lists countries with whom he has great relationships: Number one is Germany. No mention of Brexit at all in his tour d'horizon.
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To play the spreads you don't need shed loads of money the most.viewcode said:
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
You need balls the size of steel elephants the most.0 -
Nothing of the kind, he has been in regular phone contact with May since the meetingAlly_B said:
Probably sums up what he thought about May after meeting her doesn't it?HYUFD said:
Yet he invited May first to the White House and when he did invite Merkel could barely conceal his distastewilliamglenn said:Trump lists countries with whom he has great relationships: Number one is Germany. No mention of Brexit at all in his tour d'horizon.
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That may be true in the trading world, but (unless I'm mistaken) in spread betting firms such as SPIN you do have to deposit the full maximum possible loss before they accept the bet. It certainly was the case when I did it. Happy to be corrected if you have a concrete example.MaxPB said:
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.OUT said:
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/0 -
Indeed - but there remains the possibility that some pollsters have overcompensated for their 2015 debacle.RobD said:
Fat lot of good their 2015 methodology did them.justin124 said:I suspect that if Yougov were using the same methodology it employed in 2015 the Tory lead would now be in single figures.
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Far too much over-confidence among Con supporters - taking all polls together no question that Lab has increased and the lead is down significantly.
Add in a massive row over ending the triple lock and atrocious publicity if CPS announce charges against a stack of Con MPs and we could easily be getting to the stage where even a Con majority of any size is in doubt.
Remember, if LDs do well the Con lead needed for a majority will start edging back up towards 10% - ie what UNS applied to the 2010 GE result suggested was needed - which was why everyone was so certain that 2015 would be NOM.
Indeed I wonder if these polls will actually force May to now keep the triple lock.0 -
There also remains the possibility they haven't compensated enough.justin124 said:
Indeed - but there remains the possibility that some pollsters have overcompensated for their 2015 debacle.RobD said:
Fat lot of good their 2015 methodology did them.justin124 said:I suspect that if Yougov were using the same methodology it employed in 2015 the Tory lead would now be in single figures.
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I wasn't debating the size of your balls. I was debating the amount you had to give to X before they would accept your 378@40 bet. Do you have a credit facility with them, or other sums already with them?TheScreamingEagles said:
To play the spreads you don't need shed loads of money the most.viewcode said:
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
You need balls the size of steel elephants the most.0 -
"Is there a case for Le Pen?" asks Ross Douthat in the New York Times, as he attempts to make a case for Le Pen.0
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You don't.viewcode said:
That may be true in the trading world, but (unless I'm mistaken) in spread betting firms such as SPIN you do have to deposit the full maximum possible loss before they accept the bet. It certainly was the case when I did it. Happy to be corrected if you have a concrete example.MaxPB said:
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.OUT said:
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
Each customer will have an individual credit limit though. Also they aren't bets, they're legally different as contracts.0 -
Scrap0
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May is still polling higher than Blair got in 1997 and Thatcher got in 1983 with both Opinium and Yougov and as high as Thatcher got in 1987 and higher than Blair got in 2001 with ORB, all got majorities over 100, the big change from 2015 is the mass shift of voters from UKIP to ToryMikeL said:Far too much over-confidence among Con supporters - taking all polls together no question that Lab has increased and the lead is down significantly.
Add in a massive row over ending the triple lock and atrocious publicity if CPS announce charges against a stack of Con MPs and we could easily be getting to the stage where even a Con majority of any size is in doubt.
Remember, if LDs do well the Con lead needed for a majority will start edging back up towards 10% - ie what UNS applied to the 2010 GE result suggested was needed - which was why everyone was so certain that 2015 would be NOM.
Indeed I wonder if these polls will actually force May to now keep the triple lock.0 -
edit0
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In my experience, spread firms are realistic about the maximum potential loss in a market. They don't usually expect punters to deposit (or have a credit limit) sufficient to cover the absolute maximum potential loss, although you would still be legally liable if it did occur.viewcode said:
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
It depends a bit on the market.
For football total goals, they aren't going to ask for an infinite deposit from you if you want to sell at 2.2 goals - even if, technically it could end 20-18 (or 400-0, or whatever).
In the GE seats market, they'll probably set a deposit requirement of stake x50 or something.
BTW, I'm not trying to convince you to spreadbet - just making the point it's not quite as scary as it can seem at first.
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Ah, I see. I put in 3.5K on my first bet and had to put in the whole amount beforehand: I assume as a newbie I had no credit limit. I therefore assume TSE has a bigger limit than I.Pulpstar said:
You don't.viewcode said:
That may be true in the trading world, but (unless I'm mistaken) in spread betting firms such as SPIN you do have to deposit the full maximum possible loss before they accept the bet. It certainly was the case when I did it. Happy to be corrected if you have a concrete example.MaxPB said:
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.OUT said:
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.RobD said:
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
Each customer will have an individual credit limit though. Also they aren't bets, they're legally different as contracts.0 -
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)0 -
Which is because of Brexit, because UKIP look like a shower and it's the government that's talking more than anyone else about how great Brexit will be and how firm and patriotic it is committed to being in bringing it about. Mantra: "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the people".HYUFD said:(T)he big change from 2015 is the mass shift of voters from UKIP to Tory
A large proportion of the population have difficulty with the idea of "negotiation", and buy into the idea of achieving aims by giving the continentals a whiff of grapeshot.0 -
On the basis of tonight's polls Labour may have a realistic prospect of coming out of the election with over 200 seats.0
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Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.0 -
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!MikeL said:Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)0 -
Good to know, thank youPong said:
In my experience, spread firms are realistic about the maximum potential loss in a market. They don't usually expect punters to deposit (or have a credit limit) sufficient to cover the absolute maximum potential loss, although you would still be legally liable if it did occur.viewcode said:
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.TheScreamingEagles said:
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.viewcode said:
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?TheScreamingEagles said:Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
It depends a bit on the market.
For football total goals, they aren't going to ask for an infinite deposit from you if you want to sell at 2.2 goals - even if, technically it could end 20-18 (or 400-0, or whatever).
In the GE seats market, they'll probably set a deposit requirement of stake x50 or something.
BTW, I'm not trying to convince you to spreadbet - just making the point it's not quite as scary as it can seem at first.0 -
I wouldn't describe myself as PB's finest Classicist but I'll take the compliments however they are presented.TheScreamingEagles said:
Unders is 2/7Alistair said:
Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?TheScreamingEagles said:
Some of us have real money staked on this election.welshowl said:
Top trolling.TheScreamingEagles said:Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.
Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Overs is 5/2. (Just a reminder PB's finest Classicist tipped that at 20/1 this time last week)
Grateful thanks for the hat-tip.0 -
It reminds me of the heady days of fifty point shares and twenty-five point leads, when the electorate trembled at the sound of our campaign slogans. Now they will tremble again, at the sound of Labour's leader. The order is simple: engage the Corbyn Drive.....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!MikeL said:Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)
0 -
"You'll receive the Order of Lenin for this!"RobD said:
It reminds me of the heady days of fifty point shares and twenty-five point leads, when the electorate trembled at the sound of our campaign slogans. Now they will tremble again, at the sound of Labour's leader. The order is simple: engage the Corbyn Drive.....Sunil_Prasannan said:
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!MikeL said:Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28) 0 -
It's "swing forward". If JC manages to finesse a hung parliament from this position I will laugh myself into an anal prolapse.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!MikeL said:Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)0 -
Sorry, did I and quite a few million other Brits miss the memo that suggested Brexit was going to be smooth sailing? Lets look on the bright side, at least we are not the first EU nation exiting the Eurozone!surbiton said:
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.foxinsoxuk said:
May's campaign is not going so well. Perhaps us PB Progressive Allies have had a good week.surbiton said:
With tactical voting , this could be interesting !TheScreamingEagles said:New @YouGov @thesundaytimes poll
Con 44 (-1) Lab 31 (+2) LD 11 (+1) UKIP 6 (-1) Grn 2 (-1)
Changes since last Wed0 -
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(OT) Why do they score boxing matches (rounds) as 10-9 or 10-8? Why not just call it 1-0 or 2-0?0
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I guess that means our Article 50 notice can't be revoked then.....CarlottaVance said:0 -
Maybe they didn't want to show the UK as one of the handful with unemployment below 5%......MarqueeMark said:
I guess that means our Article 50 notice can't be revoked then.....CarlottaVance said:0 -
Sturgeon made error trying to 'weaponise Brexit', says Davidson
The MSP said that Ms Sturgeon also made a ‘huge mistake’ in pretending that a Remain vote is a ‘proxy for independence’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-weaponise-brexit-ruth-davidson-general-election-snp-a7709561.html
Sturgeon net 'well' rating (ex DK)
Pre Brexit vote (May 2016): +29
Latest (Apr 2017): +20 -
New thread...0
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Well said. When the British left my part of the world in the early '70's, they didn't expect the locals to continue to live under British law, they expected them to make their own laws according to their own tradition and the views of their people. The same will be the case for Britain when it leaves the EU.MaxPB said:
You are as naïve as you are stupid in that case. The government doesn't give a shit about us lot overseas. We aren't paying any tax and most are a just a net drain on resources. The emigrants/expats will be sold down the river to get a decent Brexit deal if that it what is necessary. On the whole we don't vote, we don't pay tax and we piss off the locals. Of all the groups involved with brexit expats are easily the most expendable to the government. That's the honest truth, and I say that as one. Anyone in that group who believes otherwise is kidding themselves.SouthamObserver said:The British government will not make it more dangerous for British citizens to live, work and holiday in Europe, or do anything that may increase security risks at home. I am surprised you think it will. We will have to agree to disagree.
What's not mentioned is that the EU are trying here to introduce the concept of EU citizenship outside that of a member state - that's a big change which I'm sure is not being debated inside the other countries of Europe.0
