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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Floater said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    LOL - you think?

    Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.
    They better f##king hurry up. I don't want my kids to finish every sentence with "eh".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    Floater said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    LOL - you think?

    Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.
    They better f##king hurry up. I don't want my kids to finish every sentence with "eh".
    I suspect we are in the cold war before the locals.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    chestnut said:

    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    Clobbering the Lib Dems? Why is Corbyn in Shoreditch?

    They are trying to monopolise the left.
    Fits with our understanding that LDs are not doing well. Labour holding seats vs LDs but losing to Tories would be a brave strategy....

    But one that I can entirely see the Trots following.
  • A former Tory strategist (MA) texts with five words

    'Bank holiday polling. I hope.'
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    MTimT said:

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    RobD said:

    saddened said:

    OUT said:

    ydoethur said:

    OUT said:

    malcolmg said:

    Kim May-Il speaks to party followers
    Like a meeting of the KKK
    Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
    Think the word you're looking for is error.

    You obnoxious fool
    Oh gawd... you'll rue the day :o
    Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?

    Ok.
    Oh dear big jessie boy upset that he was exiled at 4 years old.
    The triple team of OUT, Divvie and MalkyGee :o
    Better than Tim and his fanny boys
    MTimT said:

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    RobD said:

    saddened said:

    OUT said:

    ydoethur said:

    OUT said:

    malcolmg said:

    Kim May-Il speaks to party followers
    Like a meeting of the KKK
    Think the word you're looking for is error.

    You obnoxious fool
    Oh gawd... you'll rue the day :o


    I understand why the failures at life are bitter.


    Ok.
    Oh dear big jessie boy upset that he was exiled at 4 years old.
    The triple team of OUT, Divvie and MalkyGee :o
    Think you will find we are for in and a duo, you are a Tory though so counting not a strong point. How lucky were we to get roid of such a loser so early , is it any wonnder England is going to the dogs attracting all the crap.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    Could easily be true.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Tonight is the first time I felt like he could be right about Labour voters bottling it in terms of voting for May. Huffington Post have a focus group in Slough with labour voters.

    Whilst they all agree Corbyn is crap and May is best for delivering Brexit they also told how the cuts are effecting them locally, including one man having to buy masking tape out of their own pockets for the schoolchildren and skimping on photocopy paper etc. This made me think isam's parents are going to be quite common, i.e. labour voter who always vote labour but are staying home this time.How many more culturally labour voters just wont be able to quite bring themselves to put thier cross next to the Conservatives box?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.
    Been away?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    Keep praying
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    I can't see how Joshua can win this fight. The machine is too good.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.
    Nurse!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    That's a keeper
    How would you describe a 10 point closing in the polls in a week??

    Underestimate Jezza at your peril
    If you think Jezza will be pm feel free to offer me odds
  • If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.
    You must be Junckers - monotonous nonsense
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JCICIPM.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    You idiot , they don't care a jot about the insignificant UK. They have written UK off and are looking to the future.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

    Nope that is last weeks which we all missed at the time .
    RobD said:

    OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

    Spooky.. I replied to this post before you posted it... :D
    Thanks - but means I have to adjust last week's ELBOW!!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Floater said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    LOL - you think?

    Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.
    The danger is that they start looking ridiculous and it loses more votes than it wins for the blues.

    If the tories do lose, does Lynton have to give back his knighthood?
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    A former Tory strategist (MA) texts with five words

    'Bank holiday polling. I hope.'

    To be fair, it is a bank holiday weekend I I know of many Conservative leaning voters away. It's happened before.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong? :) Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.

    That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Mortimer said:

    chestnut said:

    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    Clobbering the Lib Dems? Why is Corbyn in Shoreditch?

    They are trying to monopolise the left.
    Fits with our understanding that LDs are not doing well. Labour holding seats vs LDs but losing to Tories would be a brave strategy....

    But one that I can entirely see the Trots following.
    The "Tim Farron is a bible bashing homophobe" narrative is primarily originating from the left and the Lib Dems have no policies beyond being anti-Brexit. Labour's move to unilaterally disarm on EU citizens rights has probably won them some Lib Dems.

    What are 9 Lib Dems going to achieve against 400 Tories? Wasted vote?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Shortly there will be an election, in which The Conservative Party will increase its majority!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So in 2015 someone on here​ was pointing out the awful subsample demographics by age ranges on YouGov polls, massively overstating the young and underrating the old.

    Is the same thing happening again?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    malcolmg said:

    You idiot , they don't care a jot about the insignificant UK.
    Then they won't want their £50bn then?

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    AndyJS said:

    JCICIPM.

    Very unlikely IMO

    Tonight's YG

    TMICIPM
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    should be very odds on for sure, hope they have not put a deposit on a tandem.
  • Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Unders is 2/7

    Overs is 5/2. (Just a reminder PB's finest Classicist tipped that at 20/1 this time last week)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Last Saturday night I had a stunning meal (sub £100 including booze) in Summertown and so avoided the weekly Tory angst.

    Looking back on it from Monday was hilarious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    edited April 2017

    malcolmg said:

    You idiot , they don't care a jot about the insignificant UK.
    Then they won't want their £50bn then?

    The turkeys will pay for Christmas for sure.
    Of course Tory tax exiles will conveniently avoid paying it.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong? :) Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.

    That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.
    We also haven't gone large on Jeremy's friends or how well his polices are working out in Venezuela yet though.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    Partly cashed out on Angus, you could double your money if you backed at 16/1.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running
    So he'll be appearing in marginals & target seats then?

    Not just no-hopers and ones with 51% majorities?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    The best village idiots you mean
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    That's not impossible. If the angry Remainer effect is somewhat larger than some of us (certainly I) had assumed, *BUT* the votes are stacking up in the Labour column rather than the Lib Dem column (which could be happening for one of several reasons,) then this could manifest itself in the form of a lot of slightly less distant - yet still useless - second places in a lot of Tory heartland seats. It might also help Labour to outperform expectations in its defences in London, where the prospect of Ukip-to-Con defection is a much smaller factor anyway.

    Conversely, if Labour is doing disproportionately well in Remain-leaning seats then it must be polling disproportionately badly in Leave-leaning seats. This should help the Conservatives in most of the Midlands and the North, especially outside of the cores of the larger cities (notably Liverpool and Manchester) where we might've expected the Labour vote to hold up relatively well anyway.

    Of course, there's a patchwork quilt of Remain and Leave areas dotted all over England and Wales, so if this kind of polarisation is happening we wouldn't be able to detect it in the regional sub-splits, which are much too granular to be useful in this case. We would just see modest reductions in the net flow of 2015 voters from the left-leaning parties to the Conservatives in the relevant tables.

    Whatever is behind the (possible, emergent) narrowing trend in the polls, I doubt that it's anything to do with either policy or presentation. Say what you like about what Mrs May has (or has not) been up to, the Labour campaign so far has been a mess.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....
    LOL, rather than Tories giving it all away to do a sleazy deal for London, you really are not right in the head.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    AndyJS said:

    JCICIPM.

    Very unlikely IMO

    Tonight's YG

    TMICIPM
    Indeed, both the Opinium and ORB polls still give May a 17% and 11% lead, ie bigger in voteshare than Blair's 2001 lead, ORB about the same as his 1997 lead and Thatcher's 1987 lead and Opinium slightly bigger than Thatcher's 1983 lead so May is still well on course for a majority of 100+
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.

    Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.

    I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.

    I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.

    Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
    My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
    Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.

    On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
    11-1 with SkyBet!
    14/1 with Bet365!
    I can't see the politics bets with bet365.

    Can anyone show me where they are please ?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited April 2017

    Floater said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    LOL - you think?

    Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.
    They better f##king hurry up. I don't want my kids to finish every sentence with "eh".
    Surely if Jezza gets in the word of choice will be comrade
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    That's not impossible. If the angry Remainer effect is somewhat larger than some of us (certainly I) had assumed, *BUT* the votes are stacking up in the Labour column rather than the Lib Dem column (which could be happening for one of several reasons,) then this could manifest itself in the form of a lot of slightly less distant - yet still useless - second places in a lot of Tory heartland seats. It might also help Labour to outperform expectations in its defences in London, where the prospect of Ukip-to-Con defection is a much smaller factor anyway.

    Conversely, if Labour is doing disproportionately well in Remain-leaning seats then it must be polling disproportionately badly in Leave-leaning seats. This should help the Conservatives in most of the Midlands and the North, especially outside of the cores of the larger cities (notably Liverpool and Manchester) where we might've expected the Labour vote to hold up relatively well anyway.

    Of course, there's a patchwork quilt of Remain and Leave areas dotted all over England and Wales, so if this kind of polarisation is happening we wouldn't be able to detect it in the regional sub-splits, which are much too granular to be useful in this case. We would just see modest reductions in the net flow of 2015 voters from the left-leaning parties to the Conservatives in the relevant tables.

    Whatever is behind the (possible, emergent) narrowing trend in the polls, I doubt that it's anything to do with either policy or presentation. Say what you like about what Mrs May has (or has not) been up to, the Labour campaign so far has been a mess.
    Labour at least have met the public at some places.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong? :) Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.

    That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.
    I imagine the Conservatives would be very satisfied with 13% on the day.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,531

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    Speculation, but I will have a go. Knowing, as I do, a number of UKIP voters in the NE, the large number of UKIP returning to the Tories, may be disguising a fair few retired Kippers returning to Labour (who tend to turn out to vote).
    This is anecdotal on the basis of canvassing in Blyth (ex-mining area). These people would not vote Conservative. Where else is there for them to go? Lib Dem/Green not likely. May not help Labour, as it means votes piling up in safer areas.
    OTOH, may be rogue polls.
  • chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.

    Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.

    I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.

    I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.

    Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
    My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
    Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.

    On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
    11-1 with SkyBet!
    14/1 with Bet365!
    I can't see the politics bets with bet365.

    Can anyone show me where they are please ?
    Bet365's politics is under specials, then under UK

    https://www.bet365.com/#/AS/B5/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Joshua just smashed the machine nearly clean off..And still he is standing!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,264
    Joshua wins! SPOTY....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    What a fight !!!! Half way through and Joshua was on his last legs, didn't give him a chance against the machine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....
    Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong? :) Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.

    That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.
    We also haven't gone large on Jeremy's friends or how well his polices are working out in Venezuela yet though.
    Methinks we are in for a certain amount of bounciness in this campaign's polls. :smile:
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    If Trump can win in America,surely Corbyn can't win here - can he ?

    ;-)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Mortimer said:

    Last Saturday night I had a stunning meal (sub £100 including booze) in Summertown and so avoided the weekly Tory angst.

    Looking back on it from Monday was hilarious.

    It really is pathetic isn't it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    The best polls had SCon on an easy 11 with tactical voting pushing that higher still.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    malcolmg said:

    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    That's not impossible. If the angry Remainer effect is somewhat larger than some of us (certainly I) had assumed, *BUT* the votes are stacking up in the Labour column rather than the Lib Dem column (which could be happening for one of several reasons,) then this could manifest itself in the form of a lot of slightly less distant - yet still useless - second places in a lot of Tory heartland seats. It might also help Labour to outperform expectations in its defences in London, where the prospect of Ukip-to-Con defection is a much smaller factor anyway.

    Conversely, if Labour is doing disproportionately well in Remain-leaning seats then it must be polling disproportionately badly in Leave-leaning seats. This should help the Conservatives in most of the Midlands and the North, especially outside of the cores of the larger cities (notably Liverpool and Manchester) where we might've expected the Labour vote to hold up relatively well anyway.

    Of course, there's a patchwork quilt of Remain and Leave areas dotted all over England and Wales, so if this kind of polarisation is happening we wouldn't be able to detect it in the regional sub-splits, which are much too granular to be useful in this case. We would just see modest reductions in the net flow of 2015 voters from the left-leaning parties to the Conservatives in the relevant tables.

    Whatever is behind the (possible, emergent) narrowing trend in the polls, I doubt that it's anything to do with either policy or presentation. Say what you like about what Mrs May has (or has not) been up to, the Labour campaign so far has been a mess.
    Labour at least have met the public at some places.
    https://twitter.com/MaidenheadAds/status/858264086961958912

    Prime Minister launches Maidenhead election campaign in the High Street

    http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925

    chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.

    Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.

    I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.

    I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.

    Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
    My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
    Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.

    On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
    11-1 with SkyBet!
    14/1 with Bet365!
    I can't see the politics bets with bet365.

    Can anyone show me where they are please ?
    Bet365's politics is under specials, then under UK

    https://www.bet365.com/#/AS/B5/
    Thanks
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited April 2017
    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running
    So he'll be appearing in marginals & target seats then?

    Not just no-hopers and ones with 51% majorities?
    I think we learnt from 2015 not to take the foot eaters reports at face value - tick tock.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
  • The spread prices on Tory seats remain unchanged with both Sporting and Spreadex quoting a mid price of 390 seats. I had expected it to drop half a dozen points or thereabouts.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    If the LibDems do fail to progress against Labour then SkyBet's 9/2 on a Labour win in Cambridge looks good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    The best polls had SCon on an easy 11 with tactical voting pushing that higher still.
    Not the one last week
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857733042080813056
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
    Tbf you'd have been pretty bloody surprised if it had taken his head off.

    Proper boxing match tho'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Joshua is done for here.

    I think you mean Joshua has done for Klitchsko.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    On the canvas or referee stopped the fight?
  • chrisb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.

    Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.

    I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.

    I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.

    Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
    My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
    Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.

    On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
    11-1 with SkyBet!
    14/1 with Bet365!
    I can't see the politics bets with bet365.

    Can anyone show me where they are please ?
    Bet365's politics is under specials, then under UK

    https://www.bet365.com/#/AS/B5/
    Bizarre under-selling of an important and growing market - clearly they don't see themselves as political experts.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Glen O'Hara:

    Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

    Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

    Handshakes all round.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    On the canvas or referee stopped the fight?
    Referee stopped it after Joshua put him down twice in the space of a few seconds and it was clear the machine had shut down.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    The best polls had SCon on an easy 11 with tactical voting pushing that higher still.
    Not the one last week
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857733042080813056
    There was a SCon 33 poll.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
    And that was a proper tear up, fantastic boxing from both fighters. In the end the Ukrainian's age probably did for him, the younger man prevailing as they went closer to the distance. 90,000 lucky people watched that at Wembley.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549

    Glen O'Hara:

    Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

    Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

    Handshakes all round.

    Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Floater said:

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running
    So he'll be appearing in marginals & target seats then?

    Not just no-hopers and ones with 51% majorities?
    I think we learnt from 2015 not to take the foot eaters reports at face value - tick tock.
    To be fair, Nick P confirmed the UKIP->Tory switchers pattern holds on the ground.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    On the canvas or referee stopped the fight?
    Referee stopped it after Joshua put him down twice in the space of a few seconds and it was clear the machine had shut down.
    Many thanks, interesting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
    And that was a proper tear up, fantastic boxing from both fighters. In the end the Ukrainian's age probably did for him, the younger man prevailing as they went closer to the distance. 90,000 lucky people watched that at Wembley.
    Given how big Wembley is, I would think half of those saw very little.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....
    Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland
    It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folk
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
    And that was a proper tear up, fantastic boxing from both fighters. In the end the Ukrainian's age probably did for him, the younger man prevailing as they went closer to the distance. 90,000 lucky people watched that at Wembley.
    Given how big Wembley is, I would think half of those saw very little.
    Yeah, those at the back were watching it on the TV screens!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Glen O'Hara:

    Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

    Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

    Handshakes all round.

    Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....
    40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...

    My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...

    No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    edited April 2017
    Charles Grant‏ @CER_Grant

    German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y


    https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....
    Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland
    It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folk
    “While Angus Robertson was saying the SNP wanted to stay in the EU, other members of the SNP signed a pledge describing Brexit as a “sea of opportunity” and promising to ensure Scotland – independent or not – would never be returned to the CFP.

    “I have signed the Scottish Fisherman’s Federation pledge and people in Moray need to know if Angus will do likewise. It’s time for the SNP to come clean about the issue or admit they are hoping to reel in the electorate with their two-faced policy.”


    http://www.insidemoray.com/fishing-lines-are-cast-by-tory-and-snp-candidates/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
    And that was a proper tear up, fantastic boxing from both fighters. In the end the Ukrainian's age probably did for him, the younger man prevailing as they went closer to the distance. 90,000 lucky people watched that at Wembley.
    Given how big Wembley is, I would think half of those saw very little.
    Yeah, those at the back were watching it on the TV screens!
    I was talking to somebody who went to Crolla fight and said the most fighting they saw was in the stands between the chavs and the gypsies.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Oh Dear
    Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,
  • Joshua wins! SPOTY....

    Yep, a likely winner, but hardly value at 2/5.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Look at Northern Ireland!

    Tories on 6?
    Labour on 8?

    Somehow I think not...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.

    The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?
    Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson
    May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....
    Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland
    It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folk
    Yes, it has a strong chance of going Tory
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    Oh Dear
    Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,

    Shit. Cancel the election.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.
    William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.
    The EU has had enough of us.
    We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.

    THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.

    Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,774
    I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    Charles Grant‏ @CER_Grant

    German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y


    https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760

    There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Glen O'Hara:

    Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

    Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

    Handshakes all round.

    Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....
    Just thinking that
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    Cage keeping themselves busy...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/controversial-human-rights-group-teaches-youngsters-authorities/

    And apparently at least one individual recently arrested in regards to an active terrorist plot was no stranger to Cage events.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Charles Grant‏ @CER_Grant

    German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y


    https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760

    There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.
    Like EU citizens should have more rights in the UK than UK citizens.....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

    Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.
    And that was a proper tear up, fantastic boxing from both fighters. In the end the Ukrainian's age probably did for him, the younger man prevailing as they went closer to the distance. 90,000 lucky people watched that at Wembley.
    Given how big Wembley is, I would think half of those saw very little.
    Yeah, those at the back were watching it on the TV screens!
    I was talking to somebody who went to Crolla fight and said the most fighting they saw was in the stands between the chavs and the gypsies.
    LOL!

    Great interviews from the two fighters afterwards tonight, huge respect.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Oh Dear
    Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,

    You are Michael Crick and I claim my five pounds...
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    We'll have to see what Mr Crosby can do under time pressure. He had much longer to prepare for the 2015 GE.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It seems to me that the negotiating intent of the EU is to get a deal where EU citizens living and working in the UK are subject to EU rights, laws, and courts, and not those of the UK.

    The even more optimistic flipside of that is the "generosity" of the EU in offering a similar arrangement to pro-EU UK Remainers, which is why Verhofstadht was talking about those who wanted it in the UK retaining their EU citizenship on an opt-in basis if they wanted it.
    That is extra judiciality and utterly unacceptable. We walk.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Disraeli said:

    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......

    It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.
    William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.
    The EU has had enough of us.
    We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.

    THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.

    Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.
    The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.

    Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.

    True that. The problem is Venezuela though...
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