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  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    I don't believe it.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    If true - ORB and Opinium are not so far out.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    They say most of the world speaks more than one language.
    What were you doing in Ethiopia?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    I don't believe it.
    It's actually helpful to May. Stops complacency.
  • Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    Don't sound too hopeful ;)
  • Note, that YouGov is from a very grainy screengrab of tomorrow's paper
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    I don't believe it.
    Underestimate Jezza at your peril
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Ben Walker‏ @brtnelexben
    Tory lead in latest YouGov down from 16pts to 13pts.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    I like Canada, but it gets very cold in the winter...
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
  • I like Canada, but it gets very cold in the winter...

    Going there next week to my sons for a fortnight
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Ben Walker‏ @brtnelexben
    Tory lead in latest YouGov down from 16pts to 13pts.

    Lib Dem Remainer strategy in tatters, I'd guess.
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 99

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    No, she's not.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Oh dearie me - Tories on this site.

    All polls show Tory lead down. Sub samples show their Scottish gains going backwards - 7 from ORB and 3 from Opinium. Perhaps celebrations were premature!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Mortimer said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....

    Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
    Tonight's YG too I think you will find
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549

    I like Canada, but it gets very cold in the winter...

    Going there next week to my sons for a fortnight
    I'm going there a few weeks after the GE...I would like to come back to the UK...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    They say most of the world speaks more than one language.
    What were you doing in Ethiopia?
    Anyone who hasn't been to Lalibela hasn't lived a full life.

    ;)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    Is this the day the polls turned?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    scotslass said:

    Oh dearie me - Tories on this site.

    All polls show Tory lead down. Sub samples show their Scottish gains going backwards - 7 from ORB and 3 from Opinium. Perhaps celebrations were premature!

    How dare you accuse PB Tories of being triumphalistic. The bloody cheek!

    :smiley:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    I don't believe it.
    Believe Victor Believe
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rkrkrk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    They say most of the world speaks more than one language.
    What were you doing in Ethiopia?
    Cape-to-Cairo trip (2007, about the last time you could safely do it).
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    Certainly be interesting if the expenses scandal knocks another hole in the lead. Come back Dave and George. Your party needs you!!!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....

    Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
    Tonight's YG too I think you will find
    Of course. From the man who daily brought us EICIPM
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017
    Suddenly the Tory strategy of vacating the airwaves for Labour doesn't look so bright.

    I did suggest in the week that we had probably reached peak Tory. The enthusiasm for backing more and more unlikely Tory winners was starting to feel like stockmarket tips from taxi drivers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    scotslass said:

    Just for fun I ran the Observer opinium sub sample through Baxter. The result is 55 SNP and 4 Tory. Not well based of course being a sub sample - but just as valid as the Telegraph story.

    I'd be pleased but very surprised to see the Tories above 4/5 in the end.
  • Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,373

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    And with 'actual voters' mebbes..
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    tim80 said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    No, she's not.
    Gordon Brown didn't have the guts to call an early election.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    They say most of the world speaks more than one language.
    What were you doing in Ethiopia?
    Cape-to-Cairo trip (2007, about the last time you could safely do it).
    Ah I remember looking at that itinerary longingly... I'm sure it was a great trip!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    valleyboy said:

    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.
    Good to know.

    What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    midwinter said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    Certainly be interesting if the expenses scandal knocks another hole in the lead. Come back Dave and George. Your party needs you!!!
    George must be starting to wonder if he really should have stepped down.

    It will be interesting to see if Dave or John Major join in the campaigning for the Tories this time round. Major has been quite active in the last few elections campaigns.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    My eyesight must be going!
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    edited April 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:



    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".

    France still has them: I have often found myself having to use my rusty O-level French as it made me the best linguist in the room. Not too hard if all you want is a pain au chocolate of course.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.
    But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?

    Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
    Once a spreadbet is cashed out there is no further potential liability/gain. ie, the result is irrelevant.

    Yes spreadbetting is for the brave - potential winnings/losses can be huge.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    Any policy would help. Preferably not rehashed Mili ones though.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    Going back a few years now but when I was travelling continental Europe the locals were always most insistent on practising their English rather than me practising my French or German.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    The most spoken language in Scotland is...?
    Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.
    It is English, isn't it? Just checking...
  • Pong said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.
    But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?

    Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
    Once a spreadbet is cashed out there is no further potential liability/gain. ie, the result is irrelevant.

    Yes spreadbetting is for the brave - potential winnings/losses can be huge.
    I wasn't planning on cashing out this year, but I am now.

    We'll know if the 20% leads are accurate if Andy Street wins the West Midlands Mayor, if he doesn't, then they aren't/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    That's a keeper
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    I don't care about holiday home owners myself, some here will. For the people that have such property - it wasn't very long ago that Hollande brought in a special tax for British home owners in France. It didn't stick as it was deemed discriminatory.These sort of taxes will be brought back in, though, won't they. Something odd happens in Spain where the authorities make retrospective planning decisions to take holiday homes off their British owners. That is not going to stop. We are being told to guarantee mass immigration from the EU to preserve the rights of the British in the EU - it is an illusion. The holiday home owners should find somewhere else to invest before they lose their money, and the UK government shouldn't consider them above UK residents.

    EU citizens in the UK should be treated in exactly the same way as non EU citizens.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241

    Pong said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.
    But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?

    Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
    Once a spreadbet is cashed out there is no further potential liability/gain. ie, the result is irrelevant.

    Yes spreadbetting is for the brave - potential winnings/losses can be huge.
    I wasn't planning on cashing out this year, but I am now.

    We'll know if the 20% leads are accurate if Andy Street wins the West Midlands Mayor, if he doesn't, then they aren't/
    Has Andy Street stood as the 'Conservative' candidate or the 'John Lewis' candidate?
  • MTimT said:

    valleyboy said:

    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.
    Good to know.

    What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?
    You could say that Stephen Crabb is a hypocrite and pound shop Tim Farron who deserves to lose whilst the Tories win big.
  • midwinter said:

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    Any policy would help. Preferably not rehashed Mili ones though.
    Manifesto 8th May. Corbyn promise on NHS cutting through maybe. But really, does anyone think when the pen is poised it will cross for Corbyn
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    @greorgeeaton Tories' lead over Labour down from gargantuan to merely huge (17, 13 and 11 points in tonight's polls).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Floater said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    That's a keeper
    How would you describe a 10 point closing in the polls in a week??

    Underestimate Jezza at your peril
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    Floater said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    That's a keeper
    How would you describe a 10 point closing in the polls in a week??

    Underestimate Jezza at your peril
    Outliers on both ends? ;)
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Isn't Preseli the number one target for the Bus Pass Elvis Party?
    Heard it all before....lol
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    I know I wanted more polls but....

    image
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,410
    NeilVW said:

    AndyJS said:


    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

    They think the polls are overstating the Labour share?
    I'm not sure if it's bastards or bollocks.
    Pretty sure it's the latter, i.e. they don't believe Corbyn will come close to matching Ed's vote share. Have to say I agree with them: it fails the sniff test.
    It would be hilarious in a way if Corbyn did pull off an upset. Maybe not enough to get into No 10, but say, matched Miliband. All those moderate Labour supporters who have psyched themselves up for Armageddon and come to terms with rebuilding the Party from the roots up will face another five years of the indestructible Jezza.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    The announcement of a sudden 'snap' election tends to boost support for the incumbent Government in initial polling - and is not surprising that we see that unwinding here. Something similar happened at the beginning of the February 1974 campaign.The big difference this time is that we are looking at a 7 week campaign - rather than the 3 week election campaign in1974.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    saddened said:

    RobD said:

    saddened said:

    OUT said:

    ydoethur said:

    OUT said:

    malcolmg said:

    Kim May-Il speaks to party followers
    Like a meeting of the KKK
    That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.

    But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
    Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
    Think the word you're looking for is error.

    You obnoxious fool
    Oh gawd... you'll rue the day :o
    Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.

    I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
    Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?

    Ok.
    Oh dear big jessie boy upset that he was exiled at 4 years old.
  • welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    @greorgeeaton Tories' lead over Labour down from gargantuan to merely huge (17, 13 and 11 points in tonight's polls).

    Let's surmise - Labour on 30 and the Lib Dems on 8.

    The unelectable Corbyn is bulletproof and the Remain strategy is dead?

    Tory majority extends to???
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    nunu said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not at all good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Dropping the triple lock was a mistake.
    Dropping the triple lock is good for the country. But politically it does smack a bit of "now where else to go"ism.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    The Corbyn to no hopes and super safe seats strategy working a treat.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Legible ST Front Page - no YouGov details:

    http://68.media.tumblr.com/0540a5d687e0885854613d57f9cc38f9/tumblr_op6vg457zZ1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg

    Wonder how 'May attacked by EU' will play with voters....

    ....I also doubt somehow Juncker 'pulled out a 2,000 page copy of the Canada EU treaty over dinner' - where was it, in his back pocket?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....

    Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
    Tonight's YG too I think you will find
    Of course. From the man who daily brought us EICIPM
    Don't panic Mr Mortimer

    for the 20th time this election TMICIPM!!!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    justin124 said:

    The announcement of a sudden 'snap' election tends to boost support for the incumbent Government in initial polling - and is not surprising that we see that unwinding here. Something similar happened at the beginning of the February 1974 campaign.The big difference this time is that we are looking at a 7 week campaign - rather than the 3 week election campaign in1974.


    If Jezza wins, then the queues at Heathrow to leave will be bigly.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    You knew she was crap, yet you still bet on her? :p
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    tim80 said:

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    No, she's not.
    Gordon Brown didn't have the guts to call an early election.
    He wasn't up against Corbyn. It's hardly courageous. Although if it goes tits up as a Cameroon you'd need a heart of stone not to laugh....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    fitalass said:

    HaroldO said:

    surbiton said:

    Jason said:

    Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
    Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.

    Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
    Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
    Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
    Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
    Ok. I know the standard of UK politician in the UK is bad, but seriously?
    Agreed. I still have a wee chuckle when I remember Angus Robertson's wee twitter panic when the Russian Naval fleet parked up in the Moray Firth during bad weather. Even after they left he was complaining about them fly tipping. :)
    Fitalaff clocks in , reads garbage from CCHQ instructions. Wonders why she was not invited to teh forest earlier to meet the Imperial Master.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited April 2017

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    That's the LibDem in you talking - man up!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    I know I wanted more polls but....

    Only five weeks left :smiley:
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    RobD said:

    saddened said:

    OUT said:

    ydoethur said:

    OUT said:

    malcolmg said:

    Kim May-Il speaks to party followers
    Like a meeting of the KKK
    That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.

    But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
    Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
    Think the word you're looking for is error.

    You obnoxious fool
    Oh gawd... you'll rue the day :o
    Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.

    I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
    Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?

    Ok.
    Oh dear big jessie boy upset that he was exiled at 4 years old.
    The triple team of OUT, Divvie and MalkyGee :o
  • Legible ST Front Page - no YouGov details:

    http://68.media.tumblr.com/0540a5d687e0885854613d57f9cc38f9/tumblr_op6vg457zZ1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg

    Wonder how 'May attacked by EU' will play with voters....

    ....I also doubt somehow Juncker 'pulled out a 2,000 page copy of the Canada EU treaty over dinner' - where was it, in his back pocket?

    It's in the story in the bottom left hand corner.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    That's the LibDem in you talking - man up!
    No, they had an earlier one too.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    It will be interesting to see whether signs of Labour recovery are reflected in the Local Elections next Thursday. Andy Burnham should be feeling a bit more confident tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    So crap every poll tonight has her still increasing the Tory majority
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    You knew she was crap, yet you still bet on her? :p
    I placed my faith in Sir Lynton, that bloke can polish most turds and of course of Corbyn's crapness.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    RobD said:

    I know I wanted more polls but....

    Only five weeks left :smiley:
    Before I claim asylum in Canada?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Alistair said:

    nunu said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not at all good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Dropping the triple lock was a mistake.
    Dropping the triple lock is good for the country. But politically it does smack a bit of "now where else to go"ism.
    Curiously there was a supportive editorial in the Sun - 'help the young'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147

    OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

    Spooky.. I replied to this post before you posted it... :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....

    Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
    Tonight's YG too I think you will find
    Of course. From the man who daily brought us EICIPM
    Don't panic Mr Mortimer

    for the 20th time this election TMICIPM!!!
    I'm not panicking.

    Anecdata shows the Tories winning yuuuuge. Saturday nights on PB seem to be habitually anti-May.

    Just wait for Monday afternoons....
  • valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 606

    MTimT said:

    valleyboy said:

    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.
    Good to know.

    What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?
    You could say that Stephen Crabb is a hypocrite and pound shop Tim Farron who deserves to lose whilst the Tories win big.
    Yep after flipping his home, the evangelical Christian was returned with a bigger majority in 2010. I suspect the forgiving voters down here will also overlook the texting which caused his cabinet resignation last year.
    When he was elected in 2005 I said he had a job for life, unless he was caught with his pants down. What do I know?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,147
    edited April 2017

    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    You knew she was crap, yet you still bet on her? :p
    I placed my faith in Sir Lynton, that bloke can polish most turds and of course of Corbyn's crapness.
    Early days yet! Will be interesting what the locals do, especially how well the LDs perform given they've been flatlining in the polls.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.

    Discuss.

    ;)
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

    Nope that is last weeks which we all missed at the time .
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Pong said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.

    Discuss.

    ;)

    He's not married to a Tory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Joshua has just battered the machine...But the machine still standing.
  • Pong said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.

    Discuss.

    ;)

    You mean his wife votes Tory?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,883
    Pong said:

    Jeremy Corbyn is Clement Attlee.

    Well apparently Angela Rayner is Nye Bevan so anything's possible.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387

    Legible ST Front Page - no YouGov details:

    http://68.media.tumblr.com/0540a5d687e0885854613d57f9cc38f9/tumblr_op6vg457zZ1u5f06vo1_1280.jpg

    Wonder how 'May attacked by EU' will play with voters....

    ....I also doubt somehow Juncker 'pulled out a 2,000 page copy of the Canada EU treaty over dinner' - where was it, in his back pocket?

    'Am I pleased to see you or is this a trade treaty down my trousers?'
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    valleyboy said:

    MTimT said:

    valleyboy said:

    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.
    Good to know.

    What is etiquette on this? I want a stonking Tory win for the GE, but it would be nice for Pippa to win. Should I be cheering her on? What say you, PB Tories?
    You could say that Stephen Crabb is a hypocrite and pound shop Tim Farron who deserves to lose whilst the Tories win big.
    Yep after flipping his home, the evangelical Christian was returned with a bigger majority in 2010. I suspect the forgiving voters down here will also overlook the texting which caused his cabinet resignation last year.
    When he was elected in 2005 I said he had a job for life, unless he was caught with his pants down. What do I know?
    Right-ho! Root for Pippa it is.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    TMICIC£16000
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited April 2017

    welshowl said:

    Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

    Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

    Top trolling.
    Some of us have real money staked on this election.

    Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
    Fair comment, but maybe they were unwise bets? Last weekend was bonkers ( no idea if you bet on that, just saying), the froth's blown off. Progress either way now gets progressively harder. Can we really see Jezza busting Milliband's 31 significantly? As long May's UKIP converts firewall holds she's home. Expenses may cause feathers to fly but in the last ten days it's an iRA cheer leader, whose chancellor thinks Venezuela is great ( a country where bog roll is on ration) or May.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719

    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

    That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
    And with 'actual voters' mebbes..
    :smiley: more forest meetings needed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    What a tear up this is...Joshua looking very tired
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    Joshua is done for here.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    Clobbering the Lib Dems? Why is Corbyn in Shoreditch?

    They are trying to monopolise the left.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

    Ambitious......
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

    LOL - you think?

    Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,689
    Mortimer said:

    When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

    If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

    A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

    1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
    2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

    My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
    Opinium has also consistently had Labour higher than other pollsters and may not have made as many adjustments since the last election as the likes of yougov and ICM, ORB may be similar. The final Opinium poll for the last general election had Labour on 35% and the Tories 34%, Labour were 5% too high and the Tories 3% too low
    http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html
This discussion has been closed.