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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,796
    chestnut said:

    saddened said:

    surbiton said:
    All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.
    That depends on what they ask for and what we want.

    The hard reality is that most of the 27 are irrelevant to our expat issue.

    Nearly 80% of our expats are in just half a dozen nations.


    If they are expats they are there on a temporary basis and will soon be returning home, so no problem.

    If, however, they are immigrants, then they might have something to worry about.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Britain Elects @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 31%
    LDEM: 10%
    UKIP: 8%

    (via ORB)"
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316

    Freggles said:

    saddened said:

    surbiton said:
    All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

    Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.

    Which seems to be a problem for them.

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

    "Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?
    Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.
    It's a shame we're leaving then. We'll never get to see what she could have done for the country inside the EU.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Freggles said:

    saddened said:

    surbiton said:
    All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

    Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.

    Which seems to be a problem for them.

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

    "Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?
    Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.
    It's a shame we're leaving then. We'll never get to see what she could have done for the country inside the EU.
    She did campaign to stay. Unfortunately the British people voted to leave. :p
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    Con 42% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 8 % in @ORB_Int poll, too much analysis is given to the the subsamples in the write up

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

    Seem to show labour well ahead in the north east and north west. I very much doubt that with all the available UKIP votes for the conservatives
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316
    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 31%

    With Labour on 32% in London? How is that possible?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    Con 42% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 8 % in @ORB_Int poll, too much analysis is given to the the subsamples in the write up

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

    The subsample abuse is truly shocking.
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    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 31%

    With Labour on 32% in London? How is that possible?
    Very strange poll
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    justin124 said:

    A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.

    Justin shakes the magic money tree.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316
    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    saddened said:

    surbiton said:
    All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

    Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.

    Which seems to be a problem for them.

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

    "Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?
    Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.
    It's a shame we're leaving then. We'll never get to see what she could have done for the country inside the EU.
    She did campaign to stay. Unfortunately the British people voted to leave. :p
    True. If she were that good a leader she'd have the country begging to join the Euro by the time she's finished.
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Calum

    The first ever poll to include the dominant party as "others" and to feature graphs which imply the poor second rated party is first. The Telegraph is becoming as big a comic as the Express!

    So last weekend it was 12 gains, mid week 8 and now 7. Seems the Tory direction is backwards.

    "Some 27 per cent of voters were found to back the Tories - far higher than the 16 per cent supporting Labour. The SNP was well ahead of both parties"
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    chestnut said:
    chestnut said:
    After the Italians held it up in November.....
    They do seem to be going out of their way to take umbrage at every possible tiny pretext.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not at all good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Dropping the triple lock was a mistake.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    edited April 2017
    Updated the polling graphs...

    https://goo.gl/7cTbAf

    Labour surging.. LDs not so much.. :D
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 31%

    With Labour on 32% in London? How is that possible?
    Looks wrong, I'll say that. I thought the Labour vote was crumbling in Scotland, Wales, the Midlands, Yorkshire? They must be doing very well in the south to compensate, which seems a bit unlikely.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    calum said:
    'Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Conservatives take the lead over Labour in Scotland'

    What an exclusive, stunning revelation.
    Conservatives: give Scottish fishermen back control of Scottish fishing waters
    SNP: give all our fish to Brussels
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    viewcode said:

    perdix said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Only if it wants to destroy itself.
    Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

    If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.
    And the Maltese have Maltese as their language.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    nunu said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not at all good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Dropping the triple lock was a mistake.
    Best not get ahead of yourself. They were on 47 only an hour or so ago ;)
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.


    Paid for how? A tax on turnips?

    I don't think it would be wild to revert to the schedule recommended by Adair Turner's report under the Brown Government. Maybe the PSBR would have to take the strain a bit - but that happened often enough under Osborne. If Governments can reduce Income Tax - via higher Personal Allowances -when the PSBR is already high , it should be equally feasible to justify higher Public Spending.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    edited April 2017

    Con 42% Lab 31% LD 10% UKIP 8 % in @ORB_Int poll, too much analysis is given to the the subsamples in the write up

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

    The subsample abuse is truly shocking.
    It's a trick to help us spot the feeble minded and focus on the London figures.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    edited April 2017
    Floater said:
    Underestimate Jezza at your peril
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    The most spoken language in Scotland is...?
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/brexit-illusions-shattered/

    "Our Brexit illusions are about to be shattered"
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    nunu said:

    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not at all good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Dropping the triple lock was a mistake.
    Best not get ahead of yourself. They were on 47 only an hour or so ago ;)
    should be 50%.......explains the 30% for a corbyn led party.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NeilVW said:

    For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.

    In which regions is this 31% Labour vote coming from?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    scotslass said:

    Calum

    The first ever poll to include the dominant party as "others" and to feature graphs which imply the poor second rated party is first. The Telegraph is becoming as big a comic as the Express!

    So last weekend it was 12 gains, mid week 8 and now 7. Seems the Tory direction is backwards.

    "Some 27 per cent of voters were found to back the Tories - far higher than the 16 per cent supporting Labour. The SNP was well ahead of both parties"

    Getting zero seats would be backwards. Let's see how many more than that they get.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408

    calum said:
    'Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Conservatives take the lead over Labour in Scotland'

    What an exclusive, stunning revelation.
    Conservatives: give Scottish fishermen back control of Scottish fishing waters
    SNP: give all our fish to Brussels
    Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    RobD said:

    Freggles said:

    saddened said:

    surbiton said:
    All they need to do is guarantee reciprocal rights and problem solved.

    Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.

    Which seems to be a problem for them.

    LOOOOOOOOOOOOL

    "Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?
    Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.
    It's a shame we're leaving then. We'll never get to see what she could have done for the country inside the EU.
    She did campaign to stay. Unfortunately the British people voted to leave. :p
    True. If she were that good a leader she'd have the country begging to join the Euro by the time she's finished.
    Why would a good leader take us into the Euro?
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    That tele poll writeup really is awful.

    Ben Riley-Smith, yer in the sinbin.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    chestnut said:
    Interesting, that isn't in the wiki tables.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/brexit-illusions-shattered/

    "Our Brexit illusions are about to be shattered"


    ... says the EU. How much are they going to have to pay to access our market?

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,408

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    The most spoken language in Scotland is...?
    Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858412614896013338

    Well, we all remember how crap our first time was.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569

    calum said:
    'Exclusive Telegraph ORB poll: Conservatives take the lead over Labour in Scotland'

    What an exclusive, stunning revelation.
    Conservatives: give Scottish fishermen back control of Scottish fishing waters
    SNP: give all our fish to Brussels
    Just as well they have boats. May will bargain away those fishing rights so the financial institutions in the city get easy access to Europe.
    Sold down the river.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    These words from Barnier actually make a good deal of sense:

    "The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said it was in Britain’s interests for the EU to be unified, as it would boost the chances of a Brexit deal. “This extraordinary meeting shows the unity of the 27 on a clear line, but this unity is not directed against Britain; I think that it is also in its interest,” he said."

    Of course, it is not a guarantee that we shall have a deal, and even less that this will help get a good deal for the UK.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    AndyJS said:

    NeilVW said:

    For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.

    In which regions is this 31% Labour vote coming from?
    That's the bit which really doesn't make sense.

    need tables.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Telegraph ORB poll has a NI subsample which, of course, means it's not conducted on the same basis as normal polls, which are GB only.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199
    NeilVW said:

    viewcode said:

    NeilVW said:

    viewcode said:

    @surbiton @rcs1000
    @Pulpstar @NeilVW

    Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"

    OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?

    Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study.
    With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.

    http://opinium.co.uk/a-note-on-methodology/
    Thank you. You answered that very quickly. Would you happen to have similar pages for the other pollsters?
    No, I just Googled it, like :smile:
    I laughed out loud, thank you... :)
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934
    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858412614896013338

    Well, we all remember how crap our first time was.

    It's not their first time, as chestnut's link shows.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199
    MTimT said:

    viewcode said:

    perdix said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Only if it wants to destroy itself.
    Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

    If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.
    And the Maltese have Maltese as their language.
    Indeed
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Starts to think I might be applying for asylum in Canada after all!
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    AndyJS said:

    NeilVW said:

    For Corbyn to match Miliband's 31% in GB would be extraordinary - hat-eating while running down Whitehall naked extraordinary.

    In which regions is this 31% Labour vote coming from?
    Full regional breakdown in the article - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Telegraph ORB poll has a NI subsample which, of course, means it's not conducted on the same basis as normal polls, which are GB only.

    ORB also ran dual telephone and online polling during the referendum with wildly different results.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast

    Don't tell me... JCICIPM. :smile:

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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726

    Telegraph ORB poll has a NI subsample which, of course, means it's not conducted on the same basis as normal polls, which are GB only.

    If their headline figure of 31% Lab is UK not GB, then that's actually better than Miliband...
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Arthur_Penny

    When rushing to tell us that the Survation sub sample tables "confirm" the Tories at 30% you forgot to mention that they show the SNP (or "others" as the Telegraph would call them) at 50%!!!
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,934

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast

    Don't tell me... JCICIPM. :smile:

    No can't see it but underestimate Jezza at your peril
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    scotslass said:

    Calum

    The first ever poll to include the dominant party as "others" and to feature graphs which imply the poor second rated party is first. The Telegraph is becoming as big a comic as the Express!

    So last weekend it was 12 gains, mid week 8 and now 7. Seems the Tory direction is backwards.

    "Some 27 per cent of voters were found to back the Tories - far higher than the 16 per cent supporting Labour. The SNP was well ahead of both parties"

    Again we have another example of SCON 2nd being the new 1st mantra ! - FWIW in the words of Abby Lee from Dance Moms - 2nd is actually the biggest loser !!

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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects @britainelects
    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42%
    LAB: 31%
    LDEM: 10%
    UKIP: 8%

    (via ORB)"

    Went to look for tables and couldn't find them, but did discover these from last week's edition:

    http://www.orb-international.com/perch/resources/orb-telegraph-poll-april-22nd-2017.pdf

    Appears that the latest numbers imply a 2% Con to Lab swing, i.e. it's another pollster that has the gap closing a bit and Labour doing somewhat better.

    Now, we await the next YouGov.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    Unmutual‏ @AidDeeJay 1m1 minute ago
    More
    Replying to @MattSingh_
    I live in a lab heartland. If they're on the same as 2015 they're picking up votes elsewhere coz they sure ain't keeping them here.

    :smile:
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,929
    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
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    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    @MattSingh_

    Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

    @AidDeeJay

    Replying to @MattSingh_
    I live in a lab heartland. If they're on the same as 2015 they're picking up votes elsewhere coz they sure ain't keeping them here.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876

    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    A good bit of complacency busting though....
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    DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    The most spoken language in Scotland is...?
    Commiserations on the clumsy non sequitur.
    I sometimes get the impression that what people really want on these threads is banter and trying to score points off each other, It's often very funny when malcolmg is online, mind you!
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    The polls suggest in the race to drive the Labour Party to oblivion, it's the LibDems nto the Tories that are letting the side down...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316
    RobD said:

    A good bit of complacency busting though....

    You mean the sight of Corbyn campaigning in Harlow wasn't enough to make you wake up to the threat? ;)
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    A good bit of complacency busting though....

    My NOC insurance bet against things going horribly wrong for TM is making me quite relaxed about this poll !!
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    A good bit of complacency busting though....

    The one thing about last week's ORB tables is that they have Labour over 40% in the North.

    That's consistent with a few others and suggests the Labour vote in the North will hold - but the Tories will pick up the Kippers.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Is ORB a BPC member?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316

    The polls suggest in the race to drive the Labour Party to oblivion, it's the LibDems nto the Tories that are letting the side down...

    To be honest, if the objective of Crosby's campaign is to wipe Labour out, he should try to help the Lib Dems out a bit, in a reversal of 2015.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    We could do with a new London-only poll. YouGov had one in late March with Lab ahead by 3, but that was obviously pre-GE announcement. Less UKIP to squeeze in London, mind.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,929
    Pong said:

    calum said:
    eh?

    Con 42% Lab 31%

    ???

    Not good for the tories.

    I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388

    Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.
    Still a long way to go so to have made 10x profit is a great result.
    But is that how it works with spread betting? I would have thought what you have done is locked in no losses, but will gain if it is between 378 and 388?

    Those spread betting on this election are very brave IMO... There are a number of factors suggesting a big result... But very hard to know how those extra Tory votes will be distributed. Plus there's the uncertainty of a potential string of prosecutions and maybe even a targeted lib dem revival.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    RobD said:

    A good bit of complacency busting though....

    You mean the sight of Corbyn campaigning in Harlow wasn't enough to make you wake up to the threat? ;)
    Corbyn campaigning in Tory seats is good news for the sitting member :smiley:
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    calum said:

    The DT write-up of the Orb poll reminds me of the Mythbusters episode where they took lion dung and polished it up into a nice shiny round ball !!

    Real story Lab closing fast
    With their fantastic campaigning that includes Corbyn making a speech with his back to the camera....

    Seriously; you're attributing all your hopes and dreams to one poll from a little known organisation; and one that still shows Labour being shafted...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Pong said:

    Is ORB a BPC member?

    Yes
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

    The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

    The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

    Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,199

    Telegraph ORB poll has a NI subsample which, of course, means it's not conducted on the same basis as normal polls, which are GB only.

    Important question: is that still true? I know it *was* true, but during the EU ref a lot of UK-wide polls came out and I was wondering if they'd kept up the habit.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Is ORB a BPC member?

    Yes
    Thanks. I probably should have googled that myslef!
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

    The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

    The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

    Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

    42-50% is Good to Fantastic for the Tories but 24% to 31% is OK to F***** Absymal for Labour.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,953
    #ORB
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

    The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

    The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

    Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

    42-50% is Good to Fantastic for the Tories but 24% to 31% is OK to F***** Absymal for Labour.
    The harder question for Labour to answer: how will they break the back of that Tory voting coalition post-Brexit?

    Friendly hint: not by doing what they've been doing since 2010, and hoping the electoral cycle does the rest for them.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876

    I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

    The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

    The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

    Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

    Very true. If pollsters are doing their jobs properly there should be "outliers" - it's in the nature of the beast. I'd much rather have smallest Conservative leads now so people don't get complacent.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Not particularly. In a good Labour year that seat is very winnable for Labour. She will not win this time though!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,336
    Forget the polls the boxings on....
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821

    I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

    The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

    The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

    Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

    Very true. If pollsters are doing their jobs properly there should be "outliers" - it's in the nature of the beast. I'd much rather have smallest Conservative leads now so people don't get complacent.
    No complacency from me.

    I've donated to the Conservatives a millionth of what we send to the EU every week.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,876
    So far two Sundays (Post and Mail) are leading on May and pensions- but nary a word on "triple lock".
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Just for fun I ran the Observer opinium sub sample through Baxter. The result is 55 SNP and 4 Tory. Not well based of course being a sub sample - but just as valid as the Telegraph story.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395


    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

    They think the polls are overstating the Labour share?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    If the Orb figures were to be accurate the implied swing against Labour would cost them just 15 seats.Moreover the suggested 2.2% swing could easily be offset by first time incumbency in most of the seats at risk. I remain doubtful, however, until confirmed by other surveys.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,858
    viewcode said:

    perdix said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Only if it wants to destroy itself.
    Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

    If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.
    The 90% of Irish who can't go much beyond "Éireann go Brách" are going to struggle at the EU in that case. May they can speak French instead?
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    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605
    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Yes,Philippa well thought of down here. Very pleasant and approachable and local. Hopefully she will do well given the short notice.
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726

    Forget the polls the boxings on....

    Corbo not out for the count yet...
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    I spent 4 years in Oman trying to learn Arabic, but did nothing but Improve the locals English. It's just the way it is.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,796
    MTimT said:

    Ha! A friend and former colleague in the FCO, Philippa Thompson, has been selected to stand for Labour in Preseli Pembrokeshire against Stephen Crabb. Tough environment for a first-time candidate in Wales.

    Isn't Preseli the number one target for the Bus Pass Elvis Party?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,821
    AndyJS said:


    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

    They think the polls are overstating the Labour share?
    I'm not sure if it's bastards or bollocks.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Ishmael_Z said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MTimT said:

    Disraeli said:

    RobD said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Probably the most common second language.
    True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because
    a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
    b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
    c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.

    Win-win-win!
    In my experience, Brits have every bit as much faculty to learn foreign languages as any other nation - a lot of Brits brought up overseas are completely fluent in other languages. But we do have less opportunity to learn (especially far fewer environments where our mother tongue is completely absent), particularly in the all formative younger years.
    Of course they have as much ability. The reasons Brits struggle imo are:
    1) less motivation when English is the global language
    2) foreigners more likely to watch British and American TV, listen to music in English than we are in their language etc.
    3) not convinced we teach languages that well in school
    The killer is not being able to find monoglot foreigners any more. In the 1970s I spent some time in the Greek islands and it was still the case in many places that if you didn't speak Greek you didn't eat. Fast forward to the recent past and trying to speak Amharic to people in off-the-beaten-track bits of Ethiopia. Usual response: "In the first place I am a Tigrigna speaker, and in the second I think we should converse in my excellent English".
    That's funny.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    I would have thought having all polling fluctuating with Labour in a 24-31% box, and the Tories in a 42-50% range, would be perfectly normal across a six week campaign.

    The core message is the same: UKIP collapsing to the Tories, a decent Tory recovery in Scotland, and serious disillusionment, with some switching, amongst the Labour core. Core Remainers flirting with the Liberal Democrats, but refusing to smell Tim Farron's spaniel.

    The numbers on the day will be what they'll be. Some pollsters will get very close, and be lauded for it, others won't and be laughed at.

    Most of that praise/criticism will be exaggerated.

    Very true. If pollsters are doing their jobs properly there should be "outliers" - it's in the nature of the beast. I'd much rather have smallest Conservative leads now so people don't get complacent.
    No complacency from me.

    I've donated to the Conservatives a millionth of what we send to the EU every week.
    Good man.

    I added to my collection of signed PM booze today at a pre election fundraiser auction...
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    scotslass said:

    Arthur_Penny

    When rushing to tell us that the Survation sub sample tables "confirm" the Tories at 30% you forgot to mention that they show the SNP (or "others" as the Telegraph would call them) at 50%!!!

    True - but I dodn't point out that Labour were on only 13% either.
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    Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

    Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,316
    FF43 said:

    viewcode said:

    perdix said:

    Disraeli said:

    Just a random musing from an old fool (me)....

    but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
    Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?

    Only if it wants to destroy itself.
    Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?

    If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.
    The 90% of Irish who can't go much beyond "Éireann go Brách" are going to struggle at the EU in that case. May they can speak French instead?
    Some of them are pretty good in la langue de Beckett...
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    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726

    AndyJS said:


    Matt Singh @MattSingh_
    Labour source messages in response to tonight's polls with "B******S". Make of that what you will...

    They think the polls are overstating the Labour share?
    I'm not sure if it's bastards or bollocks.
    Pretty sure it's the latter, i.e. they don't believe Corbyn will come close to matching Ed's vote share. Have to say I agree with them: it fails the sniff test.
This discussion has been closed.