Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Certainly and the FN will use it as a springboard for the legislative elections in June
A large part of her success is because of distancing herself from her own party.
Rather like Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, it is difficult to name another party figure in FN.
There's also the hot fascist with the familiar surname.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Certainly and the FN will use it as a springboard for the legislative elections in June
A large part of her success is because of distancing herself from her own party.
Rather like Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, it is difficult to name another party figure in FN.
There's also the hot fascist with the familiar surname.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
Think the word you're looking for is error.
You obnoxious fool
Oh gawd... you'll rue the day
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
Think the word you're looking for is error.
You obnoxious fool
Oh gawd... you'll rue the day
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Didn't we have a couple of bets on the first round?
A very small bet on the first round winner and Macron ahead of PS if I remember which you won on the popular vote at least, how much do I owe you then?
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
Think the word you're looking for is error.
You obnoxious fool
Oh gawd... you'll rue the day
Not really I was fortunate enough for my family to leave the weak members of the herd behind and move from Scotland to England when I was 4.
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
Your whining at some bloke you don't know on the internet who hasn't even addressed you, and you're talking about failures in life?
Ok.
Don't forget, whatever you say. You're still going to wake up, tomorrow, in the cultural and economic backwater that is Scotland. Feel for you.
The more interesting question, what proportion of the fans who go to these games voted leave?
On a related note, I've thought of a popular policy that Corbyn could go for. Pass a law to make the PL be free to air. It worked for the lady in Argentina.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?
Gateway drug theory. They broke a habit of a lifetime by not voting Labour last time. Now voting Tory doesn't seem all that bad.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
My reading of the polls now is that Labour voters who may not be enamoured of Corbyn, does not want to give the Tories a massive majority.
I am not quite sure about the Lib Dem numbers. Surely past vote maybe misleading since they crashed from 23% to 8%. So there are 15% of the population, who in the very recent past, voted Lib Dem and not being taken into account as such.
The locals would be a good indicator. Bettors better be ready around 1 am on Friday morning.
This is probably the best guide until the local results:
Britain Elects @britainelects Apr 26 Our polling average update:
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
If we can ignore the 48%, then the French can ignore the 40%.
Though I think Macron will work out pretty well for France, and in 5 years their economy will have significantly recovered. I don't think the next presidential election will be fought on the same ground, and the major parties will get their act together.
I think he's going to have a tough job. Whoever forms the next French Government will have a very tough job.
But not as tough as whoever forms the next UK Government.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?
Obvious conclusion: some of the Ukip vote were ex-Tories and have gone back home. Others were ex-Labour and, having gone over to Ukip, have found the journey to the Tories rather easier than they might otherwise have done.
So now, instead of Ukip challenging Labour, their voters are going to help the Tories challenge Labour instead. In which capacity, they ought to be somewhat more effective.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Have they all died off???
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Have they all died off???
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!
I sincerely doubt we're going to get the internationalists wishing the old would all die off this time though.
A charity supported by Jeremy Corbyn hosted an anti-Semitic speaker who has accused Jews of exploiting the Holocaust and called Zionism 'parallel to Nazism'.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
A Conservative government will also secure a better future for Scottish fishermen by leaving the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy. There is clear difference here between the Conservatives and our SNP opponents. Nationalist MPs are all fully signed up to the SNP’s policy of re-joining the EU as a full member. That means taking back no control over our waters and keeping all the power in Brussels. In contrast, Conservatives will take the UK out of the CFP for good.
The odd thing about the Opinium tables is that Lab and Con retain a similar proportion of their 2015 vote, and furthermore, UKIP retain a higher proportion than either of those two! This certainly doesn't chime with other recent polls.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Have they all died off???
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Have they all died off???
Oh God, we aren't going to have to endure relentless posts bending facts and pointing out that it was only old, rich pensioners that won it for Macron are we?!
So Macron == Brexit?
It is what it is, or S.O.C.K.S, as they say in Spain.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?
Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study. With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
More interesting than you know. Post the EU ref the pollsters were entranced by the fact that yhe electorate were splitting on liberal/authoratative axis. There was speculation that they would use it as a weight in the 2020 election.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?
Party propensity would indicate it is done by panel, I think. The party that you normally support.
The odd thing about the Opinium tables is that Lab and Con retain a similar proportion of their 2015 vote, and furthermore, UKIP retain a higher proportion than either of those two! This certainly doesn't chime with other recent polls.
The cross-tabs are very peculiar indeed, aren't they? And I've no idea how they've managed to get the Tories up to 47% on such a modest total of crossovers.
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?
Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study. With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.
We were told that UKIP was a threat to Labour, now it appears they were all Tories on holiday after all. How does that work?
Obvious conclusion: some of the Ukip vote were ex-Tories and have gone back home. Others were ex-Labour and, having gone over to Ukip, have found the journey to the Tories rather easier than they might otherwise have done.
So now, instead of Ukip challenging Labour, their voters are going to help the Tories challenge Labour instead. In which capacity, they ought to be somewhat more effective.
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
Ok. I know the standard of UK politician in the UK is bad, but seriously?
Agreed. I still have a wee chuckle when I remember Angus Robertson's wee twitter panic when the Russian Naval fleet parked up in the Moray Firth during bad weather. Even after they left he was complaining about them fly tipping.
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
Only if it wants to destroy itself.
Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
Probably the most common second language.
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
English is the international language (whether they like us or not).
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
Probably the most common second language.
True. Maybe if the EU had made English the official language of the Union (keeping all of the other languages of course) and made it a priority to ensure that everyone was fluent in it we would have felt somewhat better about being in it, because a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
c) And Brits wouldn't have to feel awkward and inadequate about their rank inability to learn any other language.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
What I find interesting is that apparently Macron is only in the final round because of older voters. I wonder what the result of this round would be without them.
Have they all died off???
No, but it'll be interesting to see how close it is with voters in the 18-60 bracket.
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?
Party propensity is an evolution of the party-ID variable used in previous elections where respondents were asked if they identified with a particular party and the sample was then weighted according to pre-defined targets coming from sources such as the British Election Study. With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
Bizarrely, it might reinforce its standing. Before, English could not be adopted as the defacto lingua franca without the accusation of favoring the UK. Now, it can be freely used.
A good vote winner for Labour might be to rule out any further rise in the State Pension Age.Perhaps they could even go so far as to reverse the acceleration of the later Pension Age announced by Osborne in 2011 – and revert to the timetable previously announced by the Brown Government.
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave? Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
Only if it wants to destroy itself.
Surely English is the principal language in Ireland and Malta?
If I understand correctly (I may not), Ireland nominated Gaelic as its language when it joined, presumably rationalising that as the UK was also a member, it had the luxury to do so.
Not really. Neither the dominant faction in the Conservative Party nor pretty much anybody in the Labour Party was representing strong Euroscepticism or social conservatism. Now, Theresa May is committed to leading the UK out of the EU, and the Conservatives appeal way more to the patriotic and provincial instincts of a large slice of the old Labour core vote than the Far Left metropolitan faction that has captured the Labour Party. Given also that Ukip is moving further towards a Far Right position, and that many see its mission as having been fulfilled, it's therefore a much easier step for ex-Labour Ukippers - who have already broken with their own former brand loyalty - to complete the journey across to the old enemy.
May's nascent combination of a more right-wing approach to issues such as immigration and balancing the budget, and more centrist (perhaps even soft Left) positioning on economic interventionism, quite appeals to many of these ex-Labour defectors. This re-positioning is likely to continue, firstly because Theresa May should emerge from this election with a personal mandate and a very large Parliamentary majority for her manifesto, and secondly because a substantial increase in the proportion of Tory MPs from outside of Southern England will alter the composition of her parliamentary party and, therefore, of the people that it represents, and their views and interests.
IMHO it's not really the voters that have changed after all. It's the parties that have shifted around them.
Comments
You obnoxious fool
I understand why the failures at life are bitter.
(Misread that, thought you said 20-25.)
http://www.ipsos.fr/sites/default/files/doc_associe/ipsos-sopra-steria_sociologie-des-electorats_23-avril-2017-21h.pdf
Ok.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/858386649012731904
http://www.politico.eu/article/uk-block-on-eu-spending-infuriates-brussels/
On a related note, I've thought of a popular policy that Corbyn could go for. Pass a law to make the PL be free to air. It worked for the lady in Argentina.
Press and Journal - As Theresa May heads for Scotland: She writes a message for The P&J
Doesn't mean this is happening, mind.
Britain Elects @britainelects Apr 26
Our polling average update:
Con: 45.5% (+7.7)
Lab: 25.7% (-5.5)
LDem: 10.8% (+2.7)
UKIP: 8.7% (-4.2)
Grn: 3.4% (-0.4)
Chgs. w/ GE2015.
But not as tough as whoever forms the next UK Government.
So now, instead of Ukip challenging Labour, their voters are going to help the Tories challenge Labour instead. In which capacity, they ought to be somewhat more effective.
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4457354/Jeremy-Corbyn-charity-hosts-anti-Semitic-speaker.html
Most robust statement on fisheries I've read!
@Pulpstar @NeilVW
Thank you for the discusion of Opinium polls. I note that they are now saying they are weighting by "...past vote weight in addition to...party propensity"
OK, I give up. What is the difference between "weighting by past vote" and "weighting by party propensity"?
I also thought Opinium used a panel. Why do you think they don't?
With party propensity, we ask voters how they feel about all of the parties and, from their answers, put together a unique picture of each voter’s view of the whole spectrum of parties. From this we can divide the electorate into groups based on which combination of parties they would or would not consider voting for.
http://opinium.co.uk/a-note-on-methodology/
Tedious bore.
but isn't it going to be a bit strange if the EU continue to use English as a common language after we leave?
Wouldn't German or French be more logical a choice for a club without the awkward squad British in it any more?
I hadn't been east of Peterborough by train in the previous 30 years.
a) We would have had the special "big win" that all the other countries seem to get
b) Freedom of movement in all directions would have been a lot easier.
English is the international language (whether they like us or not).
This is getting nasty.
Win-win-win!
It seems like it. Many Britons will simply respond "F*** Tusk".
Hard Brexit seems a likely probability now.
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/858412017278910464
Yeah, but that would mean the EU treating us as equals.
Which seems to be a problem for them.
Paid for how? A tax on turnips?
Con 42
Lab 31
LD 10
UKIP 8
So much tighter than other polls suggest!
"Opt out" and "rebate" not part of your vocabulary then?
42
31
TMICIPM
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/amp/
The hard reality is that most of the 27 are irrelevant to our expat issue.
Nearly 80% of our expats are in just half a dozen nations.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/
What an exclusive, stunning revelation.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/
Until TMay, we had no-one the calibre of Thatcher.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/
21st Century Socialism going down a treat
May's nascent combination of a more right-wing approach to issues such as immigration and balancing the budget, and more centrist (perhaps even soft Left) positioning on economic interventionism, quite appeals to many of these ex-Labour defectors. This re-positioning is likely to continue, firstly because Theresa May should emerge from this election with a personal mandate and a very large Parliamentary majority for her manifesto, and secondly because a substantial increase in the proportion of Tory MPs from outside of Southern England will alter the composition of her parliamentary party and, therefore, of the people that it represents, and their views and interests.
IMHO it's not really the voters that have changed after all. It's the parties that have shifted around them.
Con 42% Lab 31%
???
Not good for the tories.
I may come to regret this, but I've just cashed out of my CON spread buy @ 388
Bought @ 378. 10x stake profit is ok I guess.