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The French election comes to its final round next weekend and the polls are showing a slight edge towards Le Pen though it is still very hard to see a pathway to victory for her.

Read the full story here

Sandpit

Première?

Theuniondivvie

2nd like the definitelynotaFascist.

RobD

Sandpit said:

Première?

Damn.. LOL.

Morris_Dancer

The French weasel! I backed Le Pen to get 30-40%.

Pulpstar

I can't see anything other than noise personally.

FrancisUrquhart

Jeremy Corbyn has defended his style of leadership, saying other party leaders had given in to vested interests and manipulated the public.

The Labour leader told supporters Prime Minister Theresa May was developing a "presidential bunker mentality".....he told supporters in East London.

Actress Maxine Peake was among those in attendance for the speech.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39757627

Communists for Corbyn....

ThreeQuidder

Pulpstar said:

I can't see anything other than noise personally.

There might be a slight drift towards Le Pen.

But there's a long way to go and only a week left.

Morris_Dancer

F1: pre-race ramble will be up at some point this evening.

Edited extra bit: but not within the next half hour or so.

Pulpstar

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jeremy Corbyn has defended his style of leadership, saying other party leaders had given in to vested interests and manipulated the public.

The Labour leader told supporters Prime Minister Theresa May was developing a "presidential bunker mentality".....he told supporters in East London.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39757627

London Metropolitan University, Old Castle Street in Spitalfields/Banglatown ward - Bethnal Green constituency,

It'd be difficult to pick a more core vote Corbyn place.

Pulpstar

Rushanara might up her majority to be perfectly honest.

FrancisUrquhart

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jeremy Corbyn has defended his style of leadership, saying other party leaders had given in to vested interests and manipulated the public.

The Labour leader told supporters Prime Minister Theresa May was developing a "presidential bunker mentality".....he told supporters in East London.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39757627

London Metropolitan University, Old Castle Street in Spitalfields/Banglatown ward - Bethnal Green constituency,

It'd be difficult to pick a more core vote Corbyn place.

Would that be Lon Met uni who were banned from accepting foreign students from outside of the European Union, because they could not be trusted to help stop illegal immigration?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-19425955

Black_Rook

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jeremy Corbyn has defended his style of leadership, saying other party leaders had given in to vested interests and manipulated the public.

The Labour leader told supporters Prime Minister Theresa May was developing a "presidential bunker mentality".....he told supporters in East London.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39757627

London Metropolitan University, Old Castle Street in Spitalfields/Banglatown ward - Bethnal Green constituency,

It'd be difficult to pick a more core vote Corbyn place.

Well quite. Corbyn criticising May (who has gone on manoeuvres in both Wales and Scotland in the last couple of days) for hiding in a bunker. From just about the deepest socialist bunker in the land. Pot, kettle, black.

rottenborough

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jeremy Corbyn has defended his style of leadership, saying other party leaders had given in to vested interests and manipulated the public.

The Labour leader told supporters Prime Minister Theresa May was developing a "presidential bunker mentality".....he told supporters in East London.

Actress Maxine Peake was among those in attendance for the speech.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39757627

Communists for Corbyn....

He also said of leaders that "they stop listening".

That is beyond parody. Corbyn has listened to anyone other than Diane Abbot in about thirty years.

AnneJGP

What I find very interesting about this is the lack of focus on the possibility of a woman President. Very similar to the Conservative party leadership election; vastly different from the US Presidential election.

RobD

AnneJGP said:

What I find very interesting about this is the lack of focus on the possibility of a woman President. Very similar to the Conservative party leadership election; vastly different from the US Presidential election.

Probably says a lot about how poor Clinton's message was.

Philip_Thompson

AnneJGP said:

What I find very interesting about this is the lack of focus on the possibility of a woman President. Very similar to the Conservative party leadership election; vastly different from the US Presidential election.

We at least have had a female Prime Minister nearlt 40 years ago so it shouldnt be too surprising thay its not news for us. Can't think of any female POTFR before.

MikeSmithson

We've had as many women PMs as BREXIT referenda

rottenborough

John Stevens‏Verified account @johnestevens 3h3 hours ago
More
Ladbrokes odds in Boston & Skegness:
Conservatives (Matt Warman) 1/10
Ukip (Paul Nuttall) 6/1


Pretty pleased I got UKIP on 25 out of BF sportsbook this morning.

PaulM

AnneJGP said:

What I find very interesting about this is the lack of focus on the possibility of a woman President. Very similar to the Conservative party leadership election; vastly different from the US Presidential election.

I don't recall it coming up when Ségolène Royal was the candidate against Sarkozy either..

FF43

Pulpstar said:

I can't see anything other than noise personally.

It's a weird set of polls, with several from the same company with the same field dates. We shouldn't really expect a trend to appear over just three days. There's nothing in that data to trouble Macron. Voters who went for the three main candidates that were knocked out in the previous round are switching to him, not Le Pen, by a big margin

RobD

FF43 said:

Pulpstar said:

I can't see anything other than noise personally.

It's a weird set of polls, with several from the same company with the same field dates. We shouldn't really expect a trend to appear over just three days. There's nothing in that data to trouble Macron. Voters who went for the three main candidates that were knocked out in the previous round are switching to him, not Le Pen, by a big margin

They look like rolling polls, where they drop 1/4 of the sample each day.

Sandpit

rottenborough said:

John Stevens‏Verified account @johnestevens 3h3 hours ago
More
Ladbrokes odds in Boston & Skegness:
Conservatives (Matt Warman) 1/10
Ukip (Paul Nuttall) 6/1


Pretty pleased I got UKIP on 25 out of BF sportsbook this morning.

That was a good bet - before Nuttall was announced as the UKIP candidate?

ydoethur

They have had female PMs in the past though, haven't they? So it's not like the US where none have ever got even remotely close to the top job (three Secretaries of State, but nothing higher).

rottenborough

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

John Stevens‏Verified account @johnestevens 3h3 hours ago
More
Ladbrokes odds in Boston & Skegness:
Conservatives (Matt Warman) 1/10
Ukip (Paul Nuttall) 6/1


Pretty pleased I got UKIP on 25 out of BF sportsbook this morning.

That was a good bet - before Nuttall was announced as the UKIP candidate?

Minutes after Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed had UKIP news on his tweet feed.

BF still have them available at 16.

Black_Rook

Waiting with baited breath from European leaders' reactions if, as looks plausible, somebody widely derided as a neo-fascist ends up winning 45% of the popular vote.

Champagne corks popping everywhere and crowing about a great victory for European values, I imagine. No willingness to learn from the Austrian presidential election, nor this one, nor even from Brexit. The same old problems, especially with the structure of the Eurozone and with chronic unemployment in half the EU, will be there the day after the second round vote as were there the day before - seemingly with nobody having either a plan or the willpower needed to resolve them.

They'd all better pray that President Macron knows what he's doing.

ThreeQuidder

RobD said:

AnneJGP said:

What I find very interesting about this is the lack of focus on the possibility of a woman President. Very similar to the Conservative party leadership election; vastly different from the US Presidential election.

Probably says a lot about how poor Clinton's message was.

Or about how it's the left that proclaims how it cares about electing women but the right who actually do it.

MTimT

Vingt-sixieme

RobD

Black_Rook said:

Waiting with baited breath from European leaders' reactions if, as looks plausible, somebody widely derided as a neo-fascist ends up winning 45% of the popular vote.

Champagne corks popping everywhere and crowing about a great victory for European values, I imagine. No willingness to learn from the Austrian presidential election, nor this one, nor even from Brexit. The same old problems, especially with the structure of the Eurozone and with chronic unemployment in half the EU, will be there the day after the second round vote as were there the day before - seemingly with nobody having either a plan or the willpower needed to resolve them.

They'd all better pray that President Macron knows what he's doing.

You know what the solution is? More Europe!

rcs1000

Here's a very interesting thing. Historically, turnout in the second round of the French election is higher than in the first. Let me give you some examples:

	1st Round   2nd Round
2012    79.5        80.4
2007    83.8        84.0
2002    71.6        79.7
1995    78.4        79.7

Now we are seeing a vast number of people saying they are going to abstain. Will turnout really decline as the opinion polls suggest? Alternatively, are the "abstainers" simply shy Le Pen switchers? Or are people simply going to break heavily for Macron in the last few days of the campaign?

It would be very interesting if there was a supplementary question, something like: "I understand you are abstaining in the second round of this election. But who do you think would be better for France, Macron or Le Pen?" Because that might help divine what this very large number of possible abstainers will do.

eek

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

rottenborough said:

John Stevens‏Verified account @johnestevens 3h3 hours ago
More
Ladbrokes odds in Boston & Skegness:
Conservatives (Matt Warman) 1/10
Ukip (Paul Nuttall) 6/1


Pretty pleased I got UKIP on 25 out of BF sportsbook this morning.

That was a good bet - before Nuttall was announced as the UKIP candidate?

Minutes after Jim Waterson of Buzzfeed had UKIP news on his tweet feed.

BF still have them available at 16.

As does PP (just used a £10 free bet on it)...

calum

We'll see !

https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/858349236982874117

rcs1000

Black_Rook said:

Waiting with baited breath from European leaders' reactions if, as looks plausible, somebody widely derided as a neo-fascist ends up winning 45% of the popular vote.

Champagne corks popping everywhere and crowing about a great victory for European values, I imagine. No willingness to learn from the Austrian presidential election, nor this one, nor even from Brexit. The same old problems, especially with the structure of the Eurozone and with chronic unemployment in half the EU, will be there the day after the second round vote as were there the day before - seemingly with nobody having either a plan or the willpower needed to resolve them.

They'd all better pray that President Macron knows what he's doing.

What if Marine Le Pen gets 33-34%? And that after ditching much of the historic canon of the FN to become a Peronist/Kirchner type candidate?

PClipp

Pulpstar said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Jeremy Corbyn has defended his style of leadership, saying other party leaders had given in to vested interests and manipulated the public.
The Labour leader told supporters Prime Minister Theresa May was developing a "presidential bunker mentality".....he told supporters in East London.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39757627

London Metropolitan University, Old Castle Street in Spitalfields/Banglatown ward - Bethnal Green constituency, It'd be difficult to pick a more core vote Corbyn place.

And even there, the applause was half-hearted.

I wasn`t there, but it must surely have been the case....

foxinsoxuk

ThreeQuidder said:

Pulpstar said:

I can't see anything other than noise personally.

There might be a slight drift towards Le Pen.

But there's a long way to go and only a week left.

No gamechanger on the horizon, and hard to imagine one that would shift enough votes. The only betting interest really is in the size of victory.

RobD

calum said:

We'll see !

https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/858349236982874117

Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident

Big_G_NorthWales

Pictures from Harlepool re Nuttall are dreadful with a catfight in front of the cameras.

Just embarrassing

foxinsoxuk

rcs1000 said:

Here's a very interesting thing. Historically, turnout in the second round of the French election is higher than in the first. Let me give you some examples:

	1st Round   2nd Round
2012    79.5        80.4
2007    83.8        84.0
2002    71.6        79.7
1995    78.4        79.7

Now we are seeing a vast number of people saying they are going to abstain. Will turnout really decline as the opinion polls suggest? Alternatively, are the "abstainers" simply shy Le Pen switchers? Or are people simply going to break heavily for Macron in the last few days of the campaign?

It would be very interesting if there was a supplementary question, something like: "I understand you are abstaining in the second round of this election. But who do you think would be better for France, Macron or Le Pen?" Because that might help divine what this very large number of possible abstainers will do.

2002 was the year of Le Pen senior wasn't it?

That drove quite a big increase.

Morris_Dancer

F1: pre-race article now up:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/russia-pre-race-2017.html

Lots of rambling, finally eking out a tip at the end. I'm afraid it's not very exciting.

malcolmg

calum said:

We'll see !

https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/858349236982874117

Usual bulldog impression I see.

Charles

RobD said:

AnneJGP said:

What I find very interesting about this is the lack of focus on the possibility of a woman President. Very similar to the Conservative party leadership election; vastly different from the US Presidential election.

Probably says a lot about how poor Clinton's message was.

Right wing women don't count, apparently

williamglenn

RobD said:

Black_Rook said:

Waiting with baited breath from European leaders' reactions if, as looks plausible, somebody widely derided as a neo-fascist ends up winning 45% of the popular vote.

Champagne corks popping everywhere and crowing about a great victory for European values, I imagine. No willingness to learn from the Austrian presidential election, nor this one, nor even from Brexit. The same old problems, especially with the structure of the Eurozone and with chronic unemployment in half the EU, will be there the day after the second round vote as were there the day before - seemingly with nobody having either a plan or the willpower needed to resolve them.

They'd all better pray that President Macron knows what he's doing.

You know what the solution is? More Europe!

You've been reading my posts.

MTimT

In 1970, when I first starting supporting teams in the English leagues, I chose one from each league: Everton for the First Division, Sunderland for the Second, Plymouth for the Third, and Exeter for the Fourth.

As things stand, 47 years later, if Exeter fail to get promotion, all four will be in the equivalent leagues as back then (with Sunderland going down and Plymouth up).

Black_Rook

rcs1000 said:

Black_Rook said:

Waiting with baited breath from European leaders' reactions if, as looks plausible, somebody widely derided as a neo-fascist ends up winning 45% of the popular vote.

Champagne corks popping everywhere and crowing about a great victory for European values, I imagine. No willingness to learn from the Austrian presidential election, nor this one, nor even from Brexit. The same old problems, especially with the structure of the Eurozone and with chronic unemployment in half the EU, will be there the day after the second round vote as were there the day before - seemingly with nobody having either a plan or the willpower needed to resolve them.

They'd all better pray that President Macron knows what he's doing.

What if Marine Le Pen gets 33-34%? And that after ditching much of the historic canon of the FN to become a Peronist/Kirchner type candidate?

Even more Champagne corks.

The problems still won't have gone away though.

malcolmg

RobD said:

calum said:

We'll see !

https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/858349236982874117

Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident

Rubbish, what is the point of doing it during election campaign that the bozos on here keep pontificating is not about independence. LOL Now is not the Time.

chestnut

The second preferences are showing that support for Macron from Melenchon and Hamon supporters is ebbing away into abstentions. It's unlikely to be enough for MLP but it's happening.

Her decision to give Dupont-Aignan the PMs job if she wins is presumably a detox attempt.

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

F1: pre-race article now up:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/russia-pre-race-2017.html

Lots of rambling, finally eking out a tip at the end. I'm afraid it's not very exciting.

Good piece, although I disagree with your assertion that Mercedes or Ferrari will resort to clear team orders this early in the season.

Sandpit

On topic, there's 6/4 available on Betfair for Le Pen to get 35-45%, the two 5% bands currently both priced at 3.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.131228414

rottenborough

(((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago

Basic rule this election. Take Ukip 2015 vote - give to Tories. Reduce Lab vote by amount to get LD up to 2010 share. Start from there.

malcolmg

LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4

TheWhiteRabbit

On topic

I'm out. My book was underwater for most of the election (as Juppé then Fillon fell by the wayside)... I think I'll end up with £20 for my trouble.

Pong

IOW homophobe row... UKIP take the moral high ground;

“UKIP Isle of Wight campaigners would like to state that Andrew Turners views do not represent the vast majority of Islanders that we come in to contact with on a daily basis. As a Party with an openly Gay Deputy Leader we find it unacceptable that these views have found a home in the Conservatives.”

http://iwradio.co.uk/2017/04/29/political-parties-react-isle-wight-mp-andrew-turners-resignation/

AnneJGP

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

calum said:

We'll see !

https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/858349236982874117

Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident

Rubbish, what is the point of doing it during election campaign that the bozos on here keep pontificating is not about independence. LOL Now is not the Time.

IIRC Ms Sturgeon announced very early on that this GE would be about Independence, so surely the voters are already aware of the fact, even if she sees no need to go into detail.

Black_Rook

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

tlg86

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Here's a very interesting thing. Historically, turnout in the second round of the French election is higher than in the first. Let me give you some examples:

	1st Round   2nd Round
2012    79.5        80.4
2007    83.8        84.0
2002    71.6        79.7
1995    78.4        79.7

Now we are seeing a vast number of people saying they are going to abstain. Will turnout really decline as the opinion polls suggest? Alternatively, are the "abstainers" simply shy Le Pen switchers? Or are people simply going to break heavily for Macron in the last few days of the campaign?

It would be very interesting if there was a supplementary question, something like: "I understand you are abstaining in the second round of this election. But who do you think would be better for France, Macron or Le Pen?" Because that might help divine what this very large number of possible abstainers will do.

2002 was the year of Le Pen senior wasn't it?

That drove quite a big increase.

Actually, it was a lowish turnout in the first round which was the exception in 2002.

TheWhiteRabbit

tlg86 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

Here's a very interesting thing. Historically, turnout in the second round of the French election is higher than in the first. Let me give you some examples:

	1st Round   2nd Round
2012    79.5        80.4
2007    83.8        84.0
2002    71.6        79.7
1995    78.4        79.7

Now we are seeing a vast number of people saying they are going to abstain. Will turnout really decline as the opinion polls suggest? Alternatively, are the "abstainers" simply shy Le Pen switchers? Or are people simply going to break heavily for Macron in the last few days of the campaign?

It would be very interesting if there was a supplementary question, something like: "I understand you are abstaining in the second round of this election. But who do you think would be better for France, Macron or Le Pen?" Because that might help divine what this very large number of possible abstainers will do.

2002 was the year of Le Pen senior wasn't it?

That drove quite a big increase.

Actually, it was a lowish turnout in the first round which was the exception in 2002.

I mean both of the above. Poor establishment candidates drove low turnout in teh premier tour followed by a wave of people coming in to smash Le Pen.

foxinsoxuk

Anecdata from pounding the pavements of Hinckley, the main town of Bosworth Constituency, for the Council elections.

1) It is confirmed that the Tories are sticking with David Tredinnick as their candidate. That perked us all up because he has a negative personal vote. Apart from being generally useless he has been MP for 30 years here, but still resides in Sussex.

2) Brexit not mentioned on the doorsteps, only discussion of local issues. Slightly surprised me.

3) 20 LD Focus team out and about, Saw a lonesome Tory candidate canvassing, so did a little gentle trolling in person

4) lots of yellow diamonds up in Hinckley, none for other parties. I saw one for Labour in Leicester South on the way home, as well as a well attended Green Party stall in studenty Clarendon Park.

5) The LD PPC for Bosworth is a local councillor and great bloke.

6) LDs winning here in the Councils may give a welcome boost, but overturning the national swing to the Tories is a tall order. 10/1 odds with PP is not too far off.

7) Nice away win for LCFC to come home to.

GIN1138

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

If Jezz does as well or better than Ed Miliand he might get to stay on as Lab leader?

RobD

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Lib Dems:

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m4jbuk8Bes1rwkg8yo1_500.gif

tlg86

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.

malcolmg

AnneJGP said:

malcolmg said:

RobD said:

calum said:

We'll see !

https://twitter.com/TheScotsman/status/858349236982874117

Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident

Rubbish, what is the point of doing it during election campaign that the bozos on here keep pontificating is not about independence. LOL Now is not the Time.

IIRC Ms Sturgeon announced very early on that this GE would be about Independence, so surely the voters are already aware of the fact, even if she sees no need to go into detail.

Exactly. One slaughter at a time.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Sandpit, we may find out tomorrow.

Sandpit

GIN1138 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

If Jezz does as well or better than Ed Miliand he might get to stay on as Lab leader?

Wouldn't that be funny, especially if their vote holds up in Islington and Maidenhead while dropping like a stone in the Midlands handing the Tories 50 seats.

williamglenn

EU: UK should not expect to get trade deal if it seeks competitive advantages, eg subsidies, setting up as tax haven

https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/858339903351947265

ThreeQuidder

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

Big_G_NorthWales

malcolmg said:

LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4

Just seen it on Sky and BBC

RobD

williamglenn said:

EU: UK should not expect to get trade deal if it seeks competitive advantages, eg subsidies, setting up as tax haven

https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/858339903351947265

Of course, I think we want a deal that is fair for both sides.

foxinsoxuk

chestnut said:

The second preferences are showing that support for Macron from Melenchon and Hamon supporters is ebbing away into abstentions. It's unlikely to be enough for MLP but it's happening.

Her decision to give Dupont-Aignan the PMs job if she wins is presumably a detox attempt.

Though she did put a holocaust denier in charge of FN in her absence!

Sandpit

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Sandpit, we may find out tomorrow.

Indeed so. I'm not sure what to bet, I may sleep on it (or bet on tonight's boxing first and hope some comes back!).

TheWhiteRabbit

tlg86 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.

remember polls are GB only, but Corbyn isn't so far off anyway

malcolmg

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4

Just seen it on Sky and BBC

with bussed in stooges as well G , they are really confident. Scared to meet real people, says a lot about her.

Big_G_NorthWales

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

EU: UK should not expect to get trade deal if it seeks competitive advantages, eg subsidies, setting up as tax haven

https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/858339903351947265

Of course, I think we want a deal that is fair for both sides.

The problem with that is that the EU cannot tie a future UK government to its tax policies

williamglenn

Interesting YouGov question:

Black_Rook

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

Sandpit

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4

Just seen it on Sky and BBC

Sounds like the TV satellite trucks couldn't work (too far north, not a clear line of sight?) so the media had to wait for their tapes to get back to the office rather than show it live.

GIN1138

williamglenn said:

EU: UK should not expect to get trade deal if it seeks competitive advantages, eg subsidies, setting up as tax haven

https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/858339903351947265

Why would we want to do that if we get a sensible deal? That only becomes an option if the EU won't give us a sensible deal...

ThreeQuidder

From the Opinium commentary:

Jeremy Corbyn has had one of his best scores, with 19% saying he would make the best prime minister.

Pong

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

Odd. Old fieldwork. Why do pollsters do this?

RobD

Black_Rook said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

You can get a free Excel viewer from Microsoft:

https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/details.aspx?id=10

ThreeQuidder

Black_Rook said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

Don't OpenOffice and/or Google Sheets open xlsx files?

GeoffM

Black_Rook said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

Plenty of free spreadsheet readers out there that will open excel format.

https://www.scoro.com/blog/11-user-friendly-excel-alternatives/

And for those who insist on Microsoft but without the paying part there's always PirateBay

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Rook, can't you open such files with Open Office?

Mr. Sandpit, quite. This is the sort of race that I'd probably sit out if I didn't offer a tip on every race.

SouthamObserver

No sign of a significant LibDem breakthrough yet, is there? Farron has escaped serious scrutiny up to now, but surely he should be doing better given Corbyn's toxicity.

AnneJGP

foxinsoxuk said:

Anecdata from pounding the pavements of Hinckley, the main town of Bosworth Constituency, for the Council elections.

1) It is confirmed that the Tories are sticking with David Tredinnick as their candidate. That perked us all up because he has a negative personal vote. Apart from being generally useless he has been MP for 30 years here, but still resides in Sussex.

2) Brexit not mentioned on the doorsteps, only discussion of local issues. Slightly surprised me.

3) 20 LD Focus team out and about, Saw a lonesome Tory candidate canvassing, so did a little gentle trolling in person

4) lots of yellow diamonds up in Hinckley, none for other parties. I saw one for Labour in Leicester South on the way home, as well as a well attended Green Party stall in studenty Clarendon Park.

5) The LD PPC for Bosworth is a local councillor and great bloke.

6) LDs winning here in the Councils may give a welcome boost, but overturning the national swing to the Tories is a tall order. 10/1 odds with PP is not too far off.

7) Nice away win for LCFC to come home to.

Out shopping today (Newton Abbot constituency), saw two political stalls: Conservative & Labour. No LD, although their efforts may be devoted to leafleting houses.

The Conservative people were focussed on the GE & Theresa May with a By-the-way, here's the leaflet/candidate for the Locals.

The Labour people were completely focussed on the Locals, nothing about the GE or national party at all.

Black_Rook

tlg86 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.

This is what I find baffling. Miliband got a little over 30%. Gordon Brown managed 29%. How on Earth could someone as monumentally unpopular as Corbyn get away with 30% of the vote?

I still want to see more data, and establish a definite trend. If Labour keeps on doing this well then either the pollsters are significantly overcounting them (again,) or Labour's floor might actually be close to 30%. Which is a little bit scary, actually.

Because if they can get nearly a third of the vote with somebody like Corbyn in charge, it would imply that virtually any other Labour leader could do the same, however useless, or however malign. Where do we go from there?

GeoffM

Sandpit said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4

Just seen it on Sky and BBC

Sounds like the TV satellite trucks couldn't work (too far north, not a clear line of sight?) so the media had to wait for their tapes to get back to the office rather than show it live.

They don't have electricity that far north and the carrier-puffins tend to freeze shut at this time of year.

Sandpit

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

Don't OpenOffice and/or Google Sheets open xlsx files?

OpenOffice and LibreOffice both certainly open xlsx files and are free, unless there's complicated macros in the sheet it should work fine.

DecrepitJohnL

GeoffM said:

Black_Rook said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

Plenty of free spreadsheet readers out there that will open excel format.

https://www.scoro.com/blog/11-user-friendly-excel-alternatives/

And for those who insist on Microsoft but without the paying part there's always PirateBay

Microsoft provides free viewers for Excel, Word and various other packages.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/search.aspx?q=viewer

Theuniondivvie

malcolmg said:

LOL
Theresa May Held A Campaign Event In A Village Hall In A Scottish Wood With No Reception
News channels weren't able to show her talking about "strong and stable" leadership this time.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/theresa-may-held-a-campaign-event-in-a-village-hall-in?utm_term=.bxQQmD7aj#.oeDOL5ro4

Classy stuff.

'The prime minister also grouped together "extremists" with Sturgeon's party, saying the only way to ensure a "secure and united nation" was by "taking action against the extremists who would divide us and standing up against the separatists who want to break up our country".'

I think we're only a Crosby breath away from the EssEnnPee being lumped in with terrorists.

williamglenn

SouthamObserver said:

No sign of a significant LibDem breakthrough yet, is there? Farron has escaped serious scrutiny up to now, but surely he should be doing better given Corbyn's toxicity.

I fear it's too late for them. This isn't 2005-2010 when there was a long list of recognisable Lib Dem talking heads on TV all the time. They've been invisible for too long and Farron isn't charismatic enough to break through.

Sandpit

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:

EU: UK should not expect to get trade deal if it seeks competitive advantages, eg subsidies, setting up as tax haven

https://twitter.com/lindayueh/status/858339903351947265

Of course, I think we want a deal that is fair for both sides.

The problem with that is that the EU cannot tie a future UK government to its tax policies

Indeed. The idea that the EU can have control over our future tax policies is nonsense.

GeoffM

Obviously in full General Election campaigning mode Lady Nugee arrived yesterday in .... ummm ... Gibraltar.

http://www.gbc.gi/news/shadow-foreign-secretary-visits-rock-35086

GeoffM

DecrepitJohnL said:

GeoffM said:

Black_Rook said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Here they are:

http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/

http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/VI-Charts-25-04-2017.xlsx

In Excel not pdf, therefore useless for anybody who hasn't spent a fortune buying MS Office. Very annoying.

Plenty of free spreadsheet readers out there that will open excel format.

https://www.scoro.com/blog/11-user-friendly-excel-alternatives/

And for those who insist on Microsoft but without the paying part there's always PirateBay

Microsoft provides free viewers for Excel, Word and various other packages.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/download/search.aspx?q=viewer

Yes - with stripped down functionality to encourage you to buy the full thingy.

MikeL

Sandpit said:

On topic, there's 6/4 available on Betfair for Le Pen to get 35-45%, the two 5% bands currently both priced at 3.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28010557/market?marketId=1.131228414

3 is 2-1 or a 33.3% chance.

So two bands of 3 totals a 66.7% chance which is 1-2, not 6-4.

Cyan

williamglenn said:

Interesting YouGov question:

Does Prince Charles have any close friends on the YouGov board?
Edit: yes he does. Ben Elliot, a non-executive director of YouGov, is Camilla's nephew.
Solved that one for you!

FrancisUrquhart

GeoffM said:

Obviously in full General Election campaigning mode Lady Nugee arrived yesterday in .... ummm ... Gibraltar.

http://www.gbc.gi/news/shadow-foreign-secretary-visits-rock-35086

Have they got the Union Jack flags out for her?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. M, did you give Colonel Thornberry a warm welcome?

AndyJS

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

I don't believe Labour are on 30%. Reminiscent of the polls that put Ed on 35%.

RobD

AndyJS said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

I don't believe Labour are on 30%. Reminiscent of the polls that put Ed on 35%.

The Day The Polls Turned?

NeilVW

TheWhiteRabbit said:

tlg86 said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.

remember polls are GB only, but Corbyn isn't so far off anyway

31.2% was the Lab GB score in 2015; 29.7% in 2010.

FrancisUrquhart

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/858354460560678913

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 47% (+2)
LAB: 30% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-3)
UKIP: 7% (-2)

(via Opinium)
Chgs. w/ 19-20 Apr survey.

More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.

Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...

Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.

I just can't believe that Jahadi Jez is going to do better than Gordon and basically as well as Ed Miliband...really...I mean really...

We will never get rid of him.