Twitter (((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen 10h10 hours ago I can hardly kvetch about metropolitan snobbery but Aberdeenshire is voting in this election too. Scotland exists outside Glasgow/Edinburgh.
Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week
That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.
No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong? Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.
That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.
With tactical voting , this could be interesting !
May's campaign is not going so well. Perhaps us PB Progressive Allies have had a good week.
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
Which makes it even more necessary we have a tough leader like May at the helm not Corbyn
When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them? 2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
Opinium has also consistently had Labour higher than other pollsters and may not have made as many adjustments since the last election as the likes of yougov and ICM, ORB may be similar. The final Opinium poll for the last general election had Labour on 35% and the Tories 34%, Labour were 5% too high and the Tories 3% too low http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html
Read that again! The final Opinium poll actually had the Tories 1% ahead!
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she'd be sitting pretty.
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
That doesn't seem to be reflected in the latest Yougov poll. I wonder who's got it wrong or if they are holding their noses and voting Labour anyway. Perhaps that's what they tell the polsters but will abstain?
44/31 is exactly the margin the Tories lost by in 1997. It's a big defeat by any yardstick.
We have never, ever been at the heart of Europe. Oh! We have often said that we wanted to be, but the heart of Europe has always been the Franco-German "motor".
In a parallel universe where Blair had joined the Euro and stayed out of Iraq we would now have immense power and influence within the EU. People may even have joked that Theresa May was the Queen of Europe, instead of giving that honorary title to the German Chancellor.
No, Germany will always dominate the EU see Greece and the UK has always been the most global of the main European powers
Not in business.
The UK is the only EU nation where a majority of its exports go outside the EU and the only one to have had an Empire with colonies in every inhabited continent
It's got fewer embassies than each of the four other members of the UN Security Council and even than Germany.
But its culture of tax-dodging and hiding money law of equity has been adopted around the world, and Russian-speaking businessmen with unclear sources of wealth oligarchs dig its chancery court and its elite boarding schools.
Or its culture of Westminster democracy, its language and its law courts
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she's be sitting pretty.
Not sure I buy that. The polls would have moved like they did this time, just earlier. We'd now be several weeks into a campaign and who knows where the polls would be.
The British government will not make it more dangerous for British citizens to live, work and holiday in Europe, or do anything that may increase security risks at home. I am surprised you think it will. We will have to agree to disagree.
You are as naïve as you are stupid in that case. The government doesn't give a shit about us lot overseas. We aren't paying any tax and most are a just a net drain on resources. The emigrants/expats will be sold down the river to get a decent Brexit deal if that it what is necessary. On the whole we don't vote, we don't pay tax and we piss off the locals. Of all the groups involved with brexit expats are easily the most expendable to the government. That's the honest truth, and I say that as one. Anyone in that group who believes otherwise is kidding themselves.
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
That doesn't seem to be reflected in the latest Yougov poll. I wonder who's got it wrong or if they are holding their noses and voting Labour anyway. Perhaps that's what they tell the polsters but will abstain?
It may well be that a weak national narrative is an advantage for Labour, running a Corbynite campaign in parts, and a Kendallite campaign in others, pro Leave here, pro Remain there. With the absence of TV debates to force more cohesion, and the likelihood of cursory rushed manifestos full of platitudes from all parties, it is more viable than ever to run an "all things to all people" campaign.
I mentioned the NFL Draft the other day. It finished today. It was in Philadelphia. Philadelphia fans are tough - many years ago when Santa Claus came onto the field at halftime in an NFL game, Eagles fans booed him and threw snowballs and cans at him.
A fan tells me ------
NFL fans know that Eagles fans hate the Cowboys. Most NFL fans also hate commissioner Roger Goodell. Every time Goodell came on stage, a lusty BOO! came up from the audience. Every time the Cowboys were mentioned, the predictable BOO! came. So on Friday night when Goodell came on to introduce Cowboys legend Drew Pearson to announce the Cowboys second round pick, who stuck it big time to Eagles fans, this happened....
It has to be simply the greatest Draft pick announcement in history.
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGov
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........
When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)
If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"
A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:
1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them? 2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.
My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....
Opinium has also consistently had Labour higher than other pollsters and may not have made as many adjustments since the last election as the likes of yougov and ICM, ORB may be similar. The final Opinium poll for the last general election had Labour on 35% and the Tories 34%, Labour were 5% too high and the Tories 3% too low http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/final-poll-from-opinium-before-election.html
Read that again! The final Opinium poll actually had the Tories 1% ahead!
Kevin Hague @kevverage the SNP's warped worldview: as the dominant Scottish party they're outraged that Scottish Labour should have the audacity to attack them Joanna Cherry QC MP @joannaccherry Why are @scottishlabour approaching #GE17 by attacking @theSNP? Why not take the fight to the Tories? So badly advised it's tragic #VoteSNP
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGov
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGov
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGov
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........
He met him quite a while ago....
I take it he was the same person and without whom the peace process would not have happened, right ?
I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodology
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGov
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley Meanwhile Lib Dems on 8, 10, 11. Nothing to write home about. Will locals lead to breakthrough or could the story be it's all hype?
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
If there's not a PPB and a full-frontal assault on this topic on TV and the newspapers (probably in the last week of the campaign) then I shall be most surprised. Of course, one of the many unknowns is: what proportion of the public is already cognisant of these controversies (and have all the ones who care enough about Corbyn's past associations ditched Labour already?)
Actually we do - only a minority of the public are well aware of Corbyn's links -70% are not according to YouGov
You mean Corbyn met [ the terrorist ] McGuinness. The person who died recently and was given a heroes funeral with eulogies from the Queen, Pres. Clinton, John Major,Tony Blair........
A Labour source said the party’s focus groups have revealed a depth of feeling against Corbyn that is unprecedented, with working-class voters seeing him as unpatriotic because he failed to sing the national anthem and because of his long-standing sympathy for the IRA.
“It’s IRA, national anthem, IRA, national anthem,” one source said. “People bring it up totally unprompted. We have never seen such a visceral response. It’s the worst we’ve ever seen.”
That's called black propaganda. And wishful thinking.
Do the working class voters go on to say "I wouldn't mind my mum waiting for 10 years for her hip operation, and having to pay her life's savings to a Tesco hospital to get it. That would be far preferable to having a prime minister who said favourable things about Irish republicanism in the 1980s, and who doesn't bow and scrape to the royal family"?
I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodology
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?
I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodology
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she's be sitting pretty.
Strategy wise, I'm a bit surprised she didn't make invoking A50 conditional on a tory majority government.
"Give me a mandate - and at 6.13 tomorrow - I'll be catching the Eurostar to Brussels and personally handing this letter to Mr Junker."
The optics would have been incredible. A very real, tangible and immediate *thing* that would happen if the red brexiteers voted tory.
The British government will not make it more dangerous for British citizens to live, work and holiday in Europe, or do anything that may increase security risks at home. I am surprised you think it will. We will have to agree to disagree.
You are as naïve as you are stupid in that case. The government doesn't give a shit about us lot overseas. We aren't paying any tax and most are a just a net drain on resources. The emigrants/expats will be sold down the river to get a decent Brexit deal if that it what is necessary. On the whole we don't vote, we don't pay tax and we piss off the locals. Of all the groups involved with brexit expats are easily the most expendable to the government. That's the honest truth, and I say that as one. Anyone in that group who believes otherwise is kidding themselves.
Some of us ex-pats are still paying tax (well National Insurance) to the UK, voluntarily. It helps us keep entitlement to a UK Old Age Pension plus contributory benefits like JSA should we return to the UK.
I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodology
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?
We have a UK Parliament not a GB one
For how much longer?
With the SNP falling back, the Tories ahead in Wales and the DUP still the largest party in Northern Ireland permanently
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
Perhaps May was a few weeks too late. If she'd called the election the day after invoking Article 50, for the same day as the local elections, she's be sitting pretty.
Strategy wise, I'm a bit surprised she didn't make invoking A50 conditional on a tory majority government.
"Give me a mandate - and at 6.13 tomorrow - I'll be catching the Eurostar to brussels with this letter in my hand!"
The optics would have been incredible.
Then it would have just turned into a second referendum.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I mentioned the NFL Draft the other day. It finished today. It was in Philadelphia. Philadelphia fans are tough - many years ago when Santa Claus came onto the field at halftime in an NFL game, Eagles fans booed him and threw snowballs and cans at him.
A fan tells me ------
NFL fans know that Eagles fans hate the Cowboys. Most NFL fans also hate commissioner Roger Goodell. Every time Goodell came on stage, a lusty BOO! came up from the audience. Every time the Cowboys were mentioned, the predictable BOO! came. So on Friday night when Goodell came on to introduce Cowboys legend Drew Pearson to announce the Cowboys second round pick, who stuck it big time to Eagles fans, this happened....
It has to be simply the greatest Draft pick announcement in history.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Gaaah, that's from December 2015: they'll have changed it twice since then. That post somebody linked to earlier (this image) indicates that TouGov are now poling on the liberal/authoritarian axis: as that became fashionable post the referendum I assume they have changed it since the link you gave me.
However, unsarcastically, thank you for replying meaningfully: it is helpful, thank you.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Gaaah, that's from December 2015: they'll have changed it twice since then. That post somebody linked to earlier (this image) indicates that TouGov are now poling on the liberal/authoritarian axis: as that became fashionable post the referendum I assume they have changed it since the link you gave me.
However, unsarcastically, thank you for replying meaningfully: it is helpful, thank you.
Thanks and I expect they have amended it a bit as you say but changes have clearly been made since the election, goodnight
I'd be genuinely shocked if Labour polled close to its 2015 result. If it does, it will show just how lucky the Tories were to be facing Corbyn. It will also indicate a much higher Labour floor than previously thought - something that might worry a few of the smarter Tories as the Brexit talks begin. Should Corbyn deliver a 30% vote, imagine what a far-lefty with half a clue and no back history of hanging out with terrorists might do against the backdrop of a botched negotiation.
Except Ed Miliband polled 35% but got 30% which suggests Corbyn is actually on 25% especially as Opinium has not gone as far as yougov and ICM in changing its methodology
No he did not! Miliband polled 31.2% . You still have not got the hang of this GB v UK thing have you?
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Labour's predicted vote share as shown in polls conducted since the election announcement:
Hm, x axis should be days, surely?
That would be better, yes. I just took them in the order they're in at Wikipedia (by last day of data collection, and if that's the same for two or more polls, then probably just by whenever someone felt like posting them), and spaced them out evenly horizontally.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Labour's predicted vote share as shown in polls conducted since the election announcement:
Hm, x axis should be days, surely?
That would be better, yes. I just took them in the order they're in at Wikipedia (by last day of data collection, and if that's the same for two or more polls, then probably just by whenever someone felt like posting them), and spaced them out evenly horizontally.
If anything that causes Labour's performance to look worse, since there haven't been 16 days since the announcement!
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
Trump lists countries with whom he has great relationships: Number one is Germany. No mention of Brexit at all in his tour d'horizon.
Yet he invited May first to the White House and when he did invite Merkel could barely conceal his distaste. However the Brexit vote was to regain sovereignty and control of free movement, it happened well before Trump was elected, if anything Trump rode the Brexit wave not the reverse
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
To play the spreads you don't need shed loads of money the most.
You need balls the size of steel elephants the most.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.
That may be true in the trading world, but (unless I'm mistaken) in spread betting firms such as SPIN you do have to deposit the full maximum possible loss before they accept the bet. It certainly was the case when I did it. Happy to be corrected if you have a concrete example.
Far too much over-confidence among Con supporters - taking all polls together no question that Lab has increased and the lead is down significantly.
Add in a massive row over ending the triple lock and atrocious publicity if CPS announce charges against a stack of Con MPs and we could easily be getting to the stage where even a Con majority of any size is in doubt.
Remember, if LDs do well the Con lead needed for a majority will start edging back up towards 10% - ie what UNS applied to the 2010 GE result suggested was needed - which was why everyone was so certain that 2015 would be NOM.
Indeed I wonder if these polls will actually force May to now keep the triple lock.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
To play the spreads you don't need shed loads of money the most.
You need balls the size of steel elephants the most.
I wasn't debating the size of your balls. I was debating the amount you had to give to X before they would accept your 378@40 bet. Do you have a credit facility with them, or other sums already with them?
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.
That may be true in the trading world, but (unless I'm mistaken) in spread betting firms such as SPIN you do have to deposit the full maximum possible loss before they accept the bet. It certainly was the case when I did it. Happy to be corrected if you have a concrete example.
You don't.
Each customer will have an individual credit limit though. Also they aren't bets, they're legally different as contracts.
Far too much over-confidence among Con supporters - taking all polls together no question that Lab has increased and the lead is down significantly.
Add in a massive row over ending the triple lock and atrocious publicity if CPS announce charges against a stack of Con MPs and we could easily be getting to the stage where even a Con majority of any size is in doubt.
Remember, if LDs do well the Con lead needed for a majority will start edging back up towards 10% - ie what UNS applied to the 2010 GE result suggested was needed - which was why everyone was so certain that 2015 would be NOM.
Indeed I wonder if these polls will actually force May to now keep the triple lock.
May is still polling higher than Blair got in 1997 and Thatcher got in 1983 with both Opinium and Yougov and as high as Thatcher got in 1987 and higher than Blair got in 2001 with ORB, all got majorities over 100, the big change from 2015 is the mass shift of voters from UKIP to Tory
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
In my experience, spread firms are realistic about the maximum potential loss in a market. They don't usually expect punters to deposit (or have a credit limit) sufficient to cover the absolute maximum potential loss, although you would still be legally liable if it did occur.
It depends a bit on the market.
For football total goals, they aren't going to ask for an infinite deposit from you if you want to sell at 2.2 goals - even if, technically it could end 20-18 (or 400-0, or whatever).
In the GE seats market, they'll probably set a deposit requirement of stake x50 or something.
BTW, I'm not trying to convince you to spreadbet - just making the point it's not quite as scary as it can seem at first.
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
How do the bookies collect on a bet like that? Do they send the bailiffs around if you don't cough up?
They've already got it. They give it back if you win.
No, you just have to post margin. If it's a loser they will ask for the full amount, if you can't pay then it's bankruptcy.
That may be true in the trading world, but (unless I'm mistaken) in spread betting firms such as SPIN you do have to deposit the full maximum possible loss before they accept the bet. It certainly was the case when I did it. Happy to be corrected if you have a concrete example.
You don't.
Each customer will have an individual credit limit though. Also they aren't bets, they're legally different as contracts.
Ah, I see. I put in 3.5K on my first bet and had to put in the whole amount beforehand: I assume as a newbie I had no credit limit. I therefore assume TSE has a bigger limit than I.
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!
(T)he big change from 2015 is the mass shift of voters from UKIP to Tory
Which is because of Brexit, because UKIP look like a shower and it's the government that's talking more than anyone else about how great Brexit will be and how firm and patriotic it is committed to being in bringing it about. Mantra: "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the people".
A large proportion of the population have difficulty with the idea of "negotiation", and buy into the idea of achieving aims by giving the continentals a whiff of grapeshot.
Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!
Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness
Hat-tip, sir: nice to see somebody putting their money where their mouth is, and I hope you win. Care to share on what you think May's seat total will be?
I bought at 378 at £40 per seat, in expectation of something just over 400 seats, mostly down to Corbyn's crapness and the barrage coming Corbyn's way from Sir Lynton meant only one outcome.
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
Look at the bright side: the worst-case-in-my-head is Con at 350, so if it goes tits up you'll "only" lose 1.1K. Although that's still quite a bit in everyday terms.
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
In my experience, spread firms are realistic about the maximum potential loss in a market. They don't usually expect punters to deposit (or have a credit limit) sufficient to cover the absolute maximum potential loss, although you would still be legally liable if it did occur.
It depends a bit on the market.
For football total goals, they aren't going to ask for an infinite deposit from you if you want to sell at 2.2 goals - even if, technically it could end 20-18 (or 400-0, or whatever).
In the GE seats market, they'll probably set a deposit requirement of stake x50 or something.
BTW, I'm not trying to convince you to spreadbet - just making the point it's not quite as scary as it can seem at first.
Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!
Tories 46.25 (+0.75) Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)
It reminds me of the heady days of fifty point shares and twenty-five point leads, when the electorate trembled at the sound of our campaign slogans. Now they will tremble again, at the sound of Labour's leader. The order is simple: engage the Corbyn Drive.....
Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!
Tories 46.25 (+0.75) Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)
It reminds me of the heady days of fifty point shares and twenty-five point leads, when the electorate trembled at the sound of our campaign slogans. Now they will tremble again, at the sound of Labour's leader. The order is simple: engage the Corbyn Drive.....
Wiki now listing an ORB dated 19/20 April of 44/29 so tonight's ORB of 42/31 represents a contraction of the lead from that base.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Probably a couple of stray polls to come in before the month is out, but ELBOW detecting a MASSIVELY huge 1.3% drop in the average Tory lead compared with week ending last Sunday!
Tories 46.25 (+0.75) Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)
It's "swing forward". If JC manages to finesse a hung parliament from this position I will laugh myself into an anal prolapse.
With tactical voting , this could be interesting !
May's campaign is not going so well. Perhaps us PB Progressive Allies have had a good week.
I also have a feeling that the calm collective outlook the EU gave on Saturday might start a few to worry that Brexit would not be such a smooth sailing after all.
Sorry, did I and quite a few million other Brits miss the memo that suggested Brexit was going to be smooth sailing? Lets look on the bright side, at least we are not the first EU nation exiting the Eurozone!
Sturgeon made error trying to 'weaponise Brexit', says Davidson The MSP said that Ms Sturgeon also made a ‘huge mistake’ in pretending that a Remain vote is a ‘proxy for independence’
The British government will not make it more dangerous for British citizens to live, work and holiday in Europe, or do anything that may increase security risks at home. I am surprised you think it will. We will have to agree to disagree.
You are as naïve as you are stupid in that case. The government doesn't give a shit about us lot overseas. We aren't paying any tax and most are a just a net drain on resources. The emigrants/expats will be sold down the river to get a decent Brexit deal if that it what is necessary. On the whole we don't vote, we don't pay tax and we piss off the locals. Of all the groups involved with brexit expats are easily the most expendable to the government. That's the honest truth, and I say that as one. Anyone in that group who believes otherwise is kidding themselves.
Well said. When the British left my part of the world in the early '70's, they didn't expect the locals to continue to live under British law, they expected them to make their own laws according to their own tradition and the views of their people. The same will be the case for Britain when it leaves the EU.
What's not mentioned is that the EU are trying here to introduce the concept of EU citizenship outside that of a member state - that's a big change which I'm sure is not being debated inside the other countries of Europe.
Comments
(((StephenDaisley)))Verified account @JournoStephen 10h10 hours ago
I can hardly kvetch about metropolitan snobbery but Aberdeenshire is voting in this election too. Scotland exists outside Glasgow/Edinburgh.
A fan tells me ------
NFL fans know that Eagles fans hate the Cowboys. Most NFL fans also hate commissioner Roger Goodell. Every time Goodell came on stage, a lusty BOO! came up from the audience. Every time the Cowboys were mentioned, the predictable BOO! came. So on Friday night when Goodell came on to introduce Cowboys legend Drew Pearson to announce the Cowboys second round pick, who stuck it big time to Eagles fans, this happened....
It has to be simply the greatest Draft pick announcement in history.
The Dallas Cowboys - America's Team.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGCA05Jdjqs
the SNP's warped worldview: as the dominant Scottish party they're outraged that Scottish Labour should have the audacity to attack them
Joanna Cherry QC MP @joannaccherry
Why are @scottishlabour approaching #GE17 by attacking @theSNP? Why not take the fight to the Tories? So badly advised it's tragic #VoteSNP
My knowledge of classical history is only surpassed by my love and knowledge of Shakespeare.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/martin-mcguinness-dies-queen-to-send-message-to-widow-of-sinn-fein-veteran-a3495531.html
Keiran Pedley @keiranpedley
Meanwhile Lib Dems on 8, 10, 11. Nothing to write home about. Will locals lead to breakthrough or could the story be it's all hype?
They are just starting right now. Vice President Pence is on the stage at the moment warming the audience up. It's live here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fucqG4Z3N2k
Do the working class voters go on to say "I wouldn't mind my mum waiting for 10 years for her hip operation, and having to pay her life's savings to a Tesco hospital to get it. That would be far preferable to having a prime minister who said favourable things about Irish republicanism in the 1980s, and who doesn't bow and scrape to the royal family"?
You're trolling, right, TSE?
"Give me a mandate - and at 6.13 tomorrow - I'll be catching the Eurostar to Brussels and personally handing this letter to Mr Junker."
The optics would have been incredible. A very real, tangible and immediate *thing* that would happen if the red brexiteers voted tory.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
Though I did explain here why I thought my trade could be a loser
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
However, unsarcastically, thank you for replying meaningfully: it is helpful, thank you.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/article-528603/Pundit-Loughrans-bankruptcy-riddle.html
378@40 is about 15K: add a bit for the buy-sell spread raises it a bit more. So your maximum possible loss is the £16K you mentioned: the amount you would lose if she lost *every* seat, which is the amount of money you had to deposit with the spread betting firm in order to make the bet.
This is why I don't spread bet: you have to deposit a shedload just to play, and although you get it back (probably!), it's still somewhat traumatic.
You need balls the size of steel elephants the most.
Add in a massive row over ending the triple lock and atrocious publicity if CPS announce charges against a stack of Con MPs and we could easily be getting to the stage where even a Con majority of any size is in doubt.
Remember, if LDs do well the Con lead needed for a majority will start edging back up towards 10% - ie what UNS applied to the 2010 GE result suggested was needed - which was why everyone was so certain that 2015 would be NOM.
Indeed I wonder if these polls will actually force May to now keep the triple lock.
Each customer will have an individual credit limit though. Also they aren't bets, they're legally different as contracts.
It depends a bit on the market.
For football total goals, they aren't going to ask for an infinite deposit from you if you want to sell at 2.2 goals - even if, technically it could end 20-18 (or 400-0, or whatever).
In the GE seats market, they'll probably set a deposit requirement of stake x50 or something.
BTW, I'm not trying to convince you to spreadbet - just making the point it's not quite as scary as it can seem at first.
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)
A large proportion of the population have difficulty with the idea of "negotiation", and buy into the idea of achieving aims by giving the continentals a whiff of grapeshot.
ORB lead down from 15 to 11.
Tories 46.25 (+0.75)
Labour 28.13 (+2.03)
Lead 18.13 (-1.28)
Grateful thanks for the hat-tip.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-29/eu-deletes-uk-official-map-two-years-brexit
The MSP said that Ms Sturgeon also made a ‘huge mistake’ in pretending that a Remain vote is a ‘proxy for independence’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicola-sturgeon-weaponise-brexit-ruth-davidson-general-election-snp-a7709561.html
Sturgeon net 'well' rating (ex DK)
Pre Brexit vote (May 2016): +29
Latest (Apr 2017): +2
What's not mentioned is that the EU are trying here to introduce the concept of EU citizenship outside that of a member state - that's a big change which I'm sure is not being debated inside the other countries of Europe.