politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Latest French polls not quite as good for Macron as they were

Floater said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

LOL - you think?

Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.

They better f##king hurry up. I don't want my kids to finish every sentence with "eh".

FrancisUrquhart said:

Floater said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Surely the pound shop Gordon Brown isn't going to blow this is she?

LOL - you think?

Tories haven't started on Jezza yet.

They better f##king hurry up. I don't want my kids to finish every sentence with "eh".

I suspect we are in the cold war before the locals.

A former Tory strategist (MA) texts with five words

'Bank holiday polling. I hope.'

Enjoy!

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/858423066254356480

Tonight is the first time I felt like he could be right about Labour voters bottling it in terms of voting for May. Huffington Post have a focus group in Slough with labour voters.

Whilst they all agree Corbyn is crap and May is best for delivering Brexit they also told how the cuts are effecting them locally, including one man having to buy masking tape out of their own pockets for the schoolchildren and skimping on photocopy paper etc. This made me think isam's parents are going to be quite common, i.e. labour voter who always vote labour but are staying home this time.How many more culturally labour voters just wont be able to quite bring themselves to put thier cross next to the Conservatives box?

Mortimer said:

Black_Rook said:

When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....

Keep praying

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

Ambitious......

It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.

Nurse!

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

Ambitious......

It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.

You must be Junckers - monotonous nonsense

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

Nope that is last weeks which we all missed at the time .

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

OK someone just put an ORB on Wikipedia with fieldwork ending 20th - is that tonight's poll?

Spooky.. I replied to this post before you posted it...

Thanks - but means I have to adjust last week's ELBOW!!

TheScreamingEagles said:

A former Tory strategist (MA) texts with five words

'Bank holiday polling. I hope.'

To be fair, it is a bank holiday weekend I I know of many Conservative leaning voters away. It's happened before.

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Shortly there will be an election, in which The Conservative Party will increase its majority!

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I'm trying to work out if Juncker/Tusk want May to secure a larger majority.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/theresa-may-rejects-brussels-hardline-brexit-demands/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

You idiot , they don't care a jot about the insignificant UK.

Then they won't want their £50bn then?

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

should be very odds on for sure, hope they have not put a deposit on a tandem.

Last Saturday night I had a stunning meal (sub £100 including booze) in Summertown and so avoided the weekly Tory angst.

Looking back on it from Monday was hilarious.

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

I'm trying to work out if Juncker/Tusk want May to secure a larger majority.....

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/theresa-may-rejects-brussels-hardline-brexit-demands/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

You idiot , they don't care a jot about the insignificant UK.

Then they won't want their £50bn then?

The turkeys will pay for Christmas for sure.
Of course Tory tax exiles will conveniently avoid paying it.

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson

Partly cashed out on Angus, you could double your money if you backed at 16/1.

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson

The best village idiots you mean

Mortimer said:

Black_Rook said:

When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....

That's not impossible. If the angry Remainer effect is somewhat larger than some of us (certainly I) had assumed, *BUT* the votes are stacking up in the Labour column rather than the Lib Dem column (which could be happening for one of several reasons,) then this could manifest itself in the form of a lot of slightly less distant - yet still useless - second places in a lot of Tory heartland seats. It might also help Labour to outperform expectations in its defences in London, where the prospect of Ukip-to-Con defection is a much smaller factor anyway.

Conversely, if Labour is doing disproportionately well in Remain-leaning seats then it must be polling disproportionately badly in Leave-leaning seats. This should help the Conservatives in most of the Midlands and the North, especially outside of the cores of the larger cities (notably Liverpool and Manchester) where we might've expected the Labour vote to hold up relatively well anyway.

Of course, there's a patchwork quilt of Remain and Leave areas dotted all over England and Wales, so if this kind of polarisation is happening we wouldn't be able to detect it in the regional sub-splits, which are much too granular to be useful in this case. We would just see modest reductions in the net flow of 2015 voters from the left-leaning parties to the Conservatives in the relevant tables.

Whatever is behind the (possible, emergent) narrowing trend in the polls, I doubt that it's anything to do with either policy or presentation. Say what you like about what Mrs May has (or has not) been up to, the Labour campaign so far has been a mess.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

Look at London.

chrisb said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

foxinsoxuk said:

another_richard said:

Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.

Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.

I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.

I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.

Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.

My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.

Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.

On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.

11-1 with SkyBet!

14/1 with Bet365!

I can't see the politics bets with bet365.

Can anyone show me where they are please ?

Black_Rook said:

Mortimer said:

Black_Rook said:

When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....

That's not impossible. If the angry Remainer effect is somewhat larger than some of us (certainly I) had assumed, *BUT* the votes are stacking up in the Labour column rather than the Lib Dem column (which could be happening for one of several reasons,) then this could manifest itself in the form of a lot of slightly less distant - yet still useless - second places in a lot of Tory heartland seats. It might also help Labour to outperform expectations in its defences in London, where the prospect of Ukip-to-Con defection is a much smaller factor anyway.

Conversely, if Labour is doing disproportionately well in Remain-leaning seats then it must be polling disproportionately badly in Leave-leaning seats. This should help the Conservatives in most of the Midlands and the North, especially outside of the cores of the larger cities (notably Liverpool and Manchester) where we might've expected the Labour vote to hold up relatively well anyway.

Of course, there's a patchwork quilt of Remain and Leave areas dotted all over England and Wales, so if this kind of polarisation is happening we wouldn't be able to detect it in the regional sub-splits, which are much too granular to be useful in this case. We would just see modest reductions in the net flow of 2015 voters from the left-leaning parties to the Conservatives in the relevant tables.

Whatever is behind the (possible, emergent) narrowing trend in the polls, I doubt that it's anything to do with either policy or presentation. Say what you like about what Mrs May has (or has not) been up to, the Labour campaign so far has been a mess.

Labour at least have met the public at some places.

Black_Rook said:

When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

A couple more questions to consider, which might help us with these:

1. Does a situation in which Labour and the Lib Dems are back where they started in May 2015 look remotely plausible, given everything that has happened since - i.e. after what happened with the polls last time, and given that Labour/Corbyn still does terribly in the secondary questions, do we swallow these headline VI numbers whole or consider that there might be something wrong with them?
2. Is there anything obvious in the 2015 voter churn tables that might help us to understand what's going on? The Opinium tables look nonsensical and there aren't any for Orb, so we're going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

Speculation, but I will have a go. Knowing, as I do, a number of UKIP voters in the NE, the large number of UKIP returning to the Tories, may be disguising a fair few retired Kippers returning to Labour (who tend to turn out to vote).
This is anecdotal on the basis of canvassing in Blyth (ex-mining area). These people would not vote Conservative. Where else is there for them to go? Lib Dem/Green not likely. May not help Labour, as it means votes piling up in safer areas.
OTOH, may be rogue polls.

Joshua just smashed the machine nearly clean off..And still he is standing!

What a fight !!!! Half way through and Joshua was on his last legs, didn't give him a chance against the machine.

BenedictWhite said:

NickPalmer said:

BenedictWhite said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like the YouGov/Sunday Times poll is

Con lead of 13%, down 3% since midweek and down 10% in a week

That's quite a swing for a week. Perhaps Theresa needs to be seen more and with more policies.

No, no. Leave Jeremy to make the running, he doesn't have a record of successful campaigns, what could possibly go wrong? Worth bearing in mind that the 2015 Tory lead was 7.1%, so a 13-point lead is just a 3-point swing.

That said, we've yet to see the Tories really trying. Their initial strategy of sitting back and hoping Labour will self-destuct isn't working, and Boris-style character crap isn't either. We'll see what happens when they put some policies forward.

We also haven't gone large on Jeremy's friends or how well his polices are working out in Venezuela yet though.

Methinks we are in for a certain amount of bounciness in this campaign's polls.

Mortimer said:

Last Saturday night I had a stunning meal (sub £100 including booze) in Summertown and so avoided the weekly Tory angst.

Looking back on it from Monday was hilarious.

It really is pathetic isn't it.

malcolmg said:

Black_Rook said:

Mortimer said:

Black_Rook said:

When these YouGov numbers are finally coughed up, I'll be intrigued to see whether Labour is knocking around 30% again (as will probably be the case.)

If so, we'll be starting to see a similar pattern in a number of pollsters. The next questions are, "Where are the voter movements taking place?" and "Why?"

going to need the YouGov splits to help us with this.

My assumption is that this polling trend might be reinforcing Labour's increasingly inefficient vote. Piling up votes where they don't need them is the only explanation when we've seen Labour doing much worse in their old heartland Leave seats....

That's not impossible. If the angry Remainer effect is somewhat larger than some of us (certainly I) had assumed, *BUT* the votes are stacking up in the Labour column rather than the Lib Dem column (which could be happening for one of several reasons,) then this could manifest itself in the form of a lot of slightly less distant - yet still useless - second places in a lot of Tory heartland seats. It might also help Labour to outperform expectations in its defences in London, where the prospect of Ukip-to-Con defection is a much smaller factor anyway.

Conversely, if Labour is doing disproportionately well in Remain-leaning seats then it must be polling disproportionately badly in Leave-leaning seats. This should help the Conservatives in most of the Midlands and the North, especially outside of the cores of the larger cities (notably Liverpool and Manchester) where we might've expected the Labour vote to hold up relatively well anyway.

Of course, there's a patchwork quilt of Remain and Leave areas dotted all over England and Wales, so if this kind of polarisation is happening we wouldn't be able to detect it in the regional sub-splits, which are much too granular to be useful in this case. We would just see modest reductions in the net flow of 2015 voters from the left-leaning parties to the Conservatives in the relevant tables.

Whatever is behind the (possible, emergent) narrowing trend in the polls, I doubt that it's anything to do with either policy or presentation. Say what you like about what Mrs May has (or has not) been up to, the Labour campaign so far has been a mess.

Labour at least have met the public at some places.

https://twitter.com/MaidenheadAds/status/858264086961958912

Prime Minister launches Maidenhead election campaign in the High Street

http://www.maidenhead-advertiser.co.uk/news/areas/114483/prime-minister-launches-maidenhead-election-campaign-in-the-high-street.html#.WQR51ahvzjk.twitter

Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

Sandpit said:

Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.

If the LibDems do fail to progress against Labour then SkyBet's 9/2 on a Labour win in Cambridge looks good.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.

Tbf you'd have been pretty bloody surprised if it had taken his head off.

Proper boxing match tho'.

Sandpit said:

Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

On the canvas or referee stopped the fight?

Glen O'Hara:

Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

Handshakes all round.

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson

The best polls had SCon on an easy 11 with tactical voting pushing that higher still.

Not the one last week
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/857733042080813056

There was a SCon 33 poll.

CarlottaVance said:

Glen O'Hara:

Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

Handshakes all round.

Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....

FrancisUrquhart said:

BenedictWhite said:

Sandpit said:

Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

On the canvas or referee stopped the fight?

Referee stopped it after Joshua put him down twice in the space of a few seconds and it was clear the machine had shut down.

Many thanks, interesting.

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson

May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....

Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland

It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folk

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Glen O'Hara:

Potential for all three GB parties to walk away from #GE2017 fairly happy. Cons: we got rather bigger majority, wd have liked more, but OK.

Lab: well, we lost pretty badly, but we didn't get wiped out, no catastrophe. Phew. Lib Dems: we won a few seats, got loads more seconds.

Handshakes all round.

Danger for Labour is, Jezza does ok and he doesn't go anywhere....

40-50 Tory Majority and Jezza stays would be brilliant result for the Tories...

My main problem with the Posh Boy's project is that it pretty much had a ceiling of 10-15 majority...

No vision amongst - but of course they hadn't experienced a good grammar school education...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson

May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....

Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland

It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folk

“While Angus Robertson was saying the SNP wanted to stay in the EU, other members of the SNP signed a pledge describing Brexit as a “sea of opportunity” and promising to ensure Scotland – independent or not – would never be returned to the CFP.

“I have signed the Scottish Fisherman’s Federation pledge and people in Moray need to know if Angus will do likewise. It’s time for the SNP to come clean about the issue or admit they are hoping to reel in the electorate with their two-faced policy.”

http://www.insidemoray.com/fishing-lines-are-cast-by-tory-and-snp-candidates/

Oh Dear
Crathes Public Hall is a registered charity whose constitution forbids its use for political meetings . Apparently it was booked today for a children's party in the name of a certain Mr Burnett ,

Arthur_Penny said:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/exclusive-telegraph-orb-poll-reveals-conservatives-take-lead/

Look at London.

Look at Northern Ireland!

Tories on 6?
Labour on 8?

Somehow I think not...

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

CarlottaVance said:

HYUFD said:

Alistair said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

welshowl said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Fortunately Mrs May's a good campaigner, a natural speaker, and her great passion to meet ordinary voters will halt this slide.

Mrs May, the woman who blew a 25% lead against Corbyn. Tut Tut

Top trolling.

Some of us have real money staked on this election.

Mrs May could cost me nearly £16,000 on the spreads with her crapness

Hmmmmmm, wonder what the price on SCons under 9.5 seats is now?

Even the best polls have 8 Tory seats as the limit, though that would include the scalp of Angus Robertson

May's Press & Journal comments on the Common Fisheries Policy won't have made his life easier.....

Yes, it is the most pro Leave seat in Scotland

It is where my Scottish family live - good fisher folk

Yes, it has a strong chance of going Tory

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

Ambitious......

It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.

William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.

THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.

Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.

williamglenn said:

Charles Grant‏ @CER_Grant

German officials in Berlin tell me they worry that May + ministers are 'deluded' on what lies ahead eg May still says FTA can be done in 2y

https://twitter.com/cer_grant/status/858089918270197760

There is plenty of delusion on the EU side.

Cage keeping themselves busy...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/controversial-human-rights-group-teaches-youngsters-authorities/

And apparently at least one individual recently arrested in regards to an active terrorist plot was no stranger to Cage events.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

Well that was worthy of a heavyweight title fight!! AJ stops him in the 11th.

Very rare to have a proper tear up these days. The undercut Joshua hit the machine with, I am surprised it didn't take his head off.

And that was a proper tear up, fantastic boxing from both fighters. In the end the Ukrainian's age probably did for him, the younger man prevailing as they went closer to the distance. 90,000 lucky people watched that at Wembley.

Given how big Wembley is, I would think half of those saw very little.

Yeah, those at the back were watching it on the TV screens!

I was talking to somebody who went to Crolla fight and said the most fighting they saw was in the stands between the chavs and the gypsies.

LOL!

Great interviews from the two fighters afterwards tonight, huge respect.

We'll have to see what Mr Crosby can do under time pressure. He had much longer to prepare for the 2015 GE.

Disraeli said:

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

If the demands were agreed in full, officials concede it would create a situation where EU nationals in the UK have more rights – say on appealing against immigration decisions on third country spouses – than are enjoyed by British citizens.

Ambitious......

It's easy to square that circle - extend the same rights to all British citizens by the simple expedient of staying in the EU. We'd have to fulfil the referendum mandate by dissolving the UK but it's a small price to pay.

William, I've got to break this to you mate, but even if the UK wanted to remain in the EU we couldn't.
The EU has had enough of us.
We voted OUT once, and we could do it again. What with all our opt-outs, failure to join the Euro and Schengen, and generally being the "awkward squad" and acting as a break on "ever close union"...they are fed up with us.

THEY DON'T WANT US ANYMORE.

Either cry or cheer, according to your preference.

The Brexiteering public has been put on a war footing in response to all this rhetoric around the negotiations.

Wars, even wars of words, end with victory or defeat, and it is the illusions of Brexit that will be defeated. Once the reality of that humiliation has sunk in, we will accept the consequences with quiet dignity and resolve and resume our rightful place at the heart of Europe.