Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
And I say that as a Con supporter - not a cheerleader like many on here.
'The prime minister also grouped together "extremists" with Sturgeon's party, saying the only way to ensure a "secure and united nation" was by "taking action against the extremists who would divide us and standing up against the separatists who want to break up our country".'
I think we're only a Crosby breath away from the EssEnnPee being lumped in with terrorists.
'The prime minister also grouped together "extremists" with Sturgeon's party, saying the only way to ensure a "secure and united nation" was by "taking action against the extremists who would divide us and standing up against the separatists who want to break up our country".'
I think we're only a Crosby breath away from the EssEnnPee being lumped in with terrorists.
Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
And I say that as a Con supporter - not a cheerleader like many on here.
General Election Turnout – 63% and over @ 5/4 Liberal Democrats Total Seats – Under @ 8/11 (26.5) Moray Constituency - Party Winner – Conservatives @ 4/6 St Ives Constituency - Party Winner – Conservatives @ 7/4 Will Jeremy Corbyn be Labour Leader at 23:00 on 9th June – Still Leader @ 5/4 Conservative Total Seats – Over @ 5/6 (378.5) SNP Total Seats – Under @ 8/15 (51.5) Total Conservative Party Seats In Scotland Over/Under – Over @ 6/1 (9.5)
Reasonably happy with those, although I missed out on tastier odds on the Scottish Tories, by being behind in my reading of the thread.
edit to add: all with William Hill, and three of them are free promotional bets.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
And I say that as a Con supporter - not a cheerleader like many on here.
Yes, there is so much betting on a Con landslide that there may well be some value in more marginal seats. 12/1 Lab take Broxtowe ;-)
I think May is not a good campaigner, and her robotic soundbites are already grating.
More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.
Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...
Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.
Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.
This is what I find baffling. Miliband got a little over 30%. Gordon Brown managed 29%. How on Earth could someone as monumentally unpopular as Corbyn get away with 30% of the vote?
I still want to see more data, and establish a definite trend. If Labour keeps on doing this well then either the pollsters are significantly overcounting them (again,) or Labour's floor might actually be close to 30%. Which is a little bit scary, actually.
Because if they can get nearly a third of the vote with somebody like Corbyn in charge, it would imply that virtually any other Labour leader could do the same, however useless, or however malign. Where do we go from there?
30% looks too high to me, but it could be that some voters are clear Corbyn will never be PM and want to try to avoid a Tory tsunami.
Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
And I say that as a Con supporter - not a cheerleader like many on here.
Even if true its also important to know where Labour's support is or isn't holding up and where the increase in Conservatives support is taking place.
Extra votes in the inner cities and university seats doesn't help Labour.
Waiting with baited breath from European leaders' reactions if, as looks plausible, somebody widely derided as a neo-fascist ends up winning 45% of the popular vote.
Champagne corks popping everywhere and crowing about a great victory for European values, I imagine. No willingness to learn from the Austrian presidential election, nor this one, nor even from Brexit. The same old problems, especially with the structure of the Eurozone and with chronic unemployment in half the EU, will be there the day after the second round vote as were there the day before - seemingly with nobody having either a plan or the willpower needed to resolve them.
They'd all better pray that President Macron knows what he's doing.
What if Marine Le Pen gets 33-34%? And that after ditching much of the historic canon of the FN to become a Peronist/Kirchner type candidate?
Even more Champagne corks.
The problems still won't have gone away though.
The biggest problem France has is not the Euro, that is merely a minor contributory factor. I think people tend to forget that over the last 150 years, fixed exchange rates - whether through the Gold Standard, Bretton Wood, or the ERM - are more the norm than floating ones.
If I were to rate the top three problems France has, I would say:
1. It's still addicted to rules and regulations, even more so than the EU. 2. It has an inflexible, sclerotic labour market. 3. The state takes up far too high a share of economic output.
Will, or can, Macron solve these problems? Who knows. He's bright. He's no coward. He doesn't mind telling people what they don't want to here. But can he survive the inevitable strikes and protests and blockages that are a part and parcel of attempting change in France?
I don't know. But I do know that both he, and Fillon, broadly recognise France's problems. Which is more than can be said for Melenchon or Le Pen.
So two bands of 3 totals a 66.7% chance which is 1-2, not 6-4.
Are you sure? I put £10 on each, £20 total to return £30 if either come in.
Yes I am sure.
If either bet wins, you win 20 on the winning bet (10 is just return of stake) and you lose 10 on the losing bet. So your total net winnings will be 10.
More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.
Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...
Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.
Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.
This is what I find baffling. Miliband got a little over 30%. Gordon Brown managed 29%. How on Earth could someone as monumentally unpopular as Corbyn get away with 30% of the vote?
I still want to see more data, and establish a definite trend. If Labour keeps on doing this well then either the pollsters are significantly overcounting them (again,) or Labour's floor might actually be close to 30%. Which is a little bit scary, actually.
Because if they can get nearly a third of the vote with somebody like Corbyn in charge, it would imply that virtually any other Labour leader could do the same, however useless, or however malign. Where do we go from there?
30% looks too high to me, but it could be that some voters are clear Corbyn will never be PM and want to try to avoid a Tory tsunami.
Worry is if he gets 30% he says hey look 21st Century Socialism isn't really that unpopular, what you need is to unite behind me....or he hands over to somebody like McMao.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
'The prime minister also grouped together "extremists" with Sturgeon's party, saying the only way to ensure a "secure and united nation" was by "taking action against the extremists who would divide us and standing up against the separatists who want to break up our country".'
I think we're only a Crosby breath away from the EssEnnPee being lumped in with terrorists.
Wonder when house arrests start
"The Separatists have been "taken care of", my Master!"
Will Jeremy Corbyn be Labour Leader at 23:00 on 9th June – Still Leader @ 5/4
What are the terms of that bet? It's now 5/6 both options, but if simply announcing he will step down doesn't count as "No longer leader" then "Still Leader" is hugely value.
John StevensVerified account @johnestevens 3h3 hours ago More Ladbrokes odds in Boston & Skegness: Conservatives (Matt Warman) 1/10 Ukip (Paul Nuttall) 6/1
Pretty pleased I got UKIP on 25 out of BF sportsbook this morning.
Wow there is a clear difference of opinion between the bookies, Lads and Hills are 11/2 6/1 UKIP, BF/PP still 12s
So two bands of 3 totals a 66.7% chance which is 1-2, not 6-4.
Are you sure? I put £10 on each, £20 total to return £30 if either come in.
Yes I am sure.
If either bet wins, you win 20 on the winning bet (10 is just return of stake) and you lose 10 on the losing bet. So your total net winnings will be 10.
If you lose both bets you lose 20.
So your overall odds are 1-2.
Yes I'm a numpty! A tired numpty who's been looking at odds all day and managed to forget how to add up!
'The prime minister also grouped together "extremists" with Sturgeon's party, saying the only way to ensure a "secure and united nation" was by "taking action against the extremists who would divide us and standing up against the separatists who want to break up our country".'
I think we're only a Crosby breath away from the EssEnnPee being lumped in with terrorists.
Wonder when house arrests start
"The Separatists have been "taken care of", my Master!"
I wonder when May will ask for emergency powers to deal with the increasing threat of the separatists?
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
No sign of a significant LibDem breakthrough yet, is there? Farron has escaped serious scrutiny up to now, but surely he should be doing better given Corbyn's toxicity.
I'm not sure Farron has escaped serious scrutiny, particularly with regard to his moral stance on gay sex, which took agonisingly long to clear up. This Opinium shows his party down 3 points on last week while Labour is up 4. Caution is needed however due to the methodological changes.
No sign of a significant LibDem breakthrough yet, is there? Farron has escaped serious scrutiny up to now, but surely he should be doing better given Corbyn's toxicity.
I'm not sure Farron has escaped serious scrutiny, particularly with regard to his moral stance on gay sex, which took agonisingly long to clear up. This Opinium shows his party down 3 points on last week while Labour is up 4. Caution is needed however due to the methodological changes.
I think we are due one or two more polls tonight? So maybe those will offer more insight.
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
More (possible) evidence that the robot voters are marching back to Labour.
Not nearly enough to establish a proper trend, but...
Will be interested to see the tables when they come out.
Ed Miliband got 31.2% in 2015. Can you really see Labour only dropping one percentage point? If the Lib Dems poll what they did last time they could lose most of their remaining seats.
This is what I find baffling. Miliband got a little over 30%. Gordon Brown managed 29%. How on Earth could someone as monumentally unpopular as Corbyn get away with 30% of the vote?
I still want to see more data, and establish a definite trend. If Labour keeps on doing this well then either the pollsters are significantly overcounting them (again,) or Labour's floor might actually be close to 30%. Which is a little bit scary, actually.
Because if they can get nearly a third of the vote with somebody like Corbyn in charge, it would imply that virtually any other Labour leader could do the same, however useless, or however malign. Where do we go from there?
30% looks too high to me, but it could be that some voters are clear Corbyn will never be PM and want to try to avoid a Tory tsunami.
Worry is if he gets 30% he says hey look 21st Century Socialism isn't really that unpopular, what you need is to unite behind me....or he hands over to somebody like McMao.
Labour will lose dozens of seats, so good luck with that Jetemy! If he does try to stick around he'll be challenged and if he wins again Labour will split.
Will Jeremy Corbyn be Labour Leader at 23:00 on 9th June – Still Leader @ 5/4
What are the terms of that bet? It's now 5/6 both options, but if simply announcing he will step down doesn't count as "No longer leader" then "Still Leader" is hugely value.
Bets settled on when he announces that he will leave the post
Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
And I say that as a Con supporter - not a cheerleader like many on here.
PB Tories overconfident? Never!
- Your overconfidence is your weakness! - Your faith in your friends is yours!
So two bands of 3 totals a 66.7% chance which is 1-2, not 6-4.
Are you sure? I put £10 on each, £20 total to return £30 if either come in.
Yes I am sure.
If either bet wins, you win 20 on the winning bet (10 is just return of stake) and you lose 10 on the losing bet. So your total net winnings will be 10.
If you lose both bets you lose 20.
So your overall odds are 1-2.
Yes I'm a numpty! A tired numpty who's been looking at odds all day and managed to forget how to add up!
eddie izzard, associate director of crystal palace is at their home game to Burnley... as OGH will tell you Burnley have not won away from home all season I believe in the PL...
'The prime minister also grouped together "extremists" with Sturgeon's party, saying the only way to ensure a "secure and united nation" was by "taking action against the extremists who would divide us and standing up against the separatists who want to break up our country".'
I think we're only a Crosby breath away from the EssEnnPee being lumped in with terrorists.
Wonder when house arrests start
What crazy talk. Dirks at the ready! And Sassenachs beware: the Scots regiments know a trick or two!
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident
She'd cancelled the next steps on the day or the day after the GE was called. For some reason it is being presented as fresh news.
..more fundamentally, the mystery of May’s dominance is solved by remembering that all politics is relative. She might be a pretty traditional 60-year old politician, but at least she looks like a woman who knows the price of a pint of milk, and—after six years of David, George and the Bullingdon boys—that is not something to be sniffed at.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
I wanted to put £400 down in a Paddy shop at 10-1, but they only took 50 (10-19 seats)
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
I can't provide any enlightenment on this subject, but the explanation sounds like it might be plausible. It would certainly explain these rather peculiar findings.
I am still having trouble believing that Labour are going to do as well as Gordon Brown did come polling day (whilst, hopefully, not being too complacent about the awful possibility that they might, in fact, do so...)
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
This is the first poll where we have included a past vote weight in addition to our party propensity and EU referendum vote weights. For the most part our party propensity weighting helps to ensure the number of voters for each party in 2015 is accurately reflected in our sample. However, we have noticed some varied responses to our 2015 past vote question during the past couple of months, even after taking account of party propensity, so we have included this in our weighting targets to ensure this remains stable over the course of the campaign.
Off-topic and meta: how can one post a workable link here to a specific time-point in a Youtube video? The software is truncating URLs with e.g. "#t=03m04s" on the end before the "m".
Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident
She'd cancelled the next steps on the day or the day after the GE was called. For some reason it is being presented as fresh news.
Rob gets a bit confused , its all that Tory surging.
Looks like she has misstepped. Sturgeon has had to cancel her planned statement on what her next steps would be until after the election. I doubt she would have done that if she were more confident
She'd cancelled the next steps on the day or the day after the GE was called. For some reason it is being presented as fresh news.
Rob gets a bit confused , its all that Tory surging.
..more fundamentally, the mystery of May’s dominance is solved by remembering that all politics is relative. She might be a pretty traditional 60-year old politician, but at least she looks like a woman who knows the price of a pint of milk, and—after six years of David, George and the Bullingdon boys—that is not something to be sniffed at.
Off-topic and meta: how can one post a workable link here to a specific time-point in a Youtube video? The software is truncating URLs with e.g. "#t=03m04s" on the end before the "m".
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
This is the first poll where we have included a past vote weight in addition to our party propensity and EU referendum vote weights. For the most part our party propensity weighting helps to ensure the number of voters for each party in 2015 is accurately reflected in our sample. However, we have noticed some varied responses to our 2015 past vote question during the past couple of months, even after taking account of party propensity, so we have included this in our weighting targets to ensure this remains stable over the course of the campaign.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
11-1 with SkyBet!
14/1 with Bet365!
Thank you, I've put £5.50 on, which is the maximum SkyBet would give me...
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
This is the first poll where we have included a past vote weight in addition to our party propensity and EU referendum vote weights. For the most part our party propensity weighting helps to ensure the number of voters for each party in 2015 is accurately reflected in our sample. However, we have noticed some varied responses to our 2015 past vote question during the past couple of months, even after taking account of party propensity, so we have included this in our weighting targets to ensure this remains stable over the course of the campaign.
..more fundamentally, the mystery of May’s dominance is solved by remembering that all politics is relative. She might be a pretty traditional 60-year old politician, but at least she looks like a woman who knows the price of a pint of milk, and—after six years of David, George and the Bullingdon boys—that is not something to be sniffed at.
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
Perhaps they're struggling to find people who admit to voting Labour previously and are uplifting Labour's rating accordingly.
This is the first poll where we have included a past vote weight in addition to our party propensity and EU referendum vote weights. For the most part our party propensity weighting helps to ensure the number of voters for each party in 2015 is accurately reflected in our sample. However, we have noticed some varied responses to our 2015 past vote question during the past couple of months, even after taking account of party propensity, so we have included this in our weighting targets to ensure this remains stable over the course of the campaign.
There you go, that's exactly why they've shown the move they have.
Good. I will try to bear this in mind in future and take their pronouncements with a pinch of salt.
I commonly play down the likely effect of Continuity Remain sentiment on the Lib Dems' likelihood of success in this election, but the notion that they've got absolutely nowhere since May 2015 is for the birds.
Unless or until the other pollsters show consistent evidence for a Lib Dem decline and/or Labour recovery, I shall be inclined to believe that Opinium are under-counting the yellows and over-counting the reds.
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
Perhaps they're struggling to find people who admit to voting Labour previously and are uplifting Labour's rating accordingly.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
This is very helpful - thank you! Now I can see the tables - which aren't very revealing actually. I may be looking in the wrong place, but I can't see detailed cross tabs and breakdowns by sub-group.
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Correct me if I'm wrong PBers, but Opinium weights by past vote. Back in 2015, I highlighted how few people pollsters could find who said they voted LD in 2010. This led to them upweighting the LD vote share. ("Hmmm, only found 10% of people who voted LD, and we know the true number was 25%, better upweight what those 10% are doing by 150%.")
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
Perhaps they're struggling to find people who admit to voting Labour previously and are uplifting Labour's rating accordingly.
Perhaps the raw figures need a thread. Con and Kipper may be showing the same too.
No amount of weighting makes up for bad sampling.
On the other hand, and on topic, the French polls were very accurate indeed.
The French pollsters were spot on in round 1, do they bother with any of this up/downweighting stuff or did they just find 248 voters out of a thousand were going to plump for Macron ?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
Indeed. There's a herd mentality. The Tory hope that lies behind the "disarray in all the other three major parties, therefore Tory landslide" narrative that's being pushed so hard seems to rest on three ideas: 1) UKIP took a lot of the working class vote from Labour and now it's going to hand it over to the Tories; 2) few will vote LibDem any more after the coalition period, and since there's no point in anyone who voted LibDem voting Labour, a lot of people who voted LibDem will now vote Tory; and 3) Jeremy Corbyn doesn't look at all as if he'd be welcome at the royal enclosure at Ascot, he's against nuclear war (what a moaning minnie), and he can't control the Trident-loving filthscum patriots in his own parliamentary party, so Labour are no magnet either.
I doubt there's any way the Tories will exceed 50%. Many people find it a right turnoff, watching Tories jump up and down as they last did in 1989.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
There are far more people on top of Ben Nevis on a spring day than there are in Crathes.
This is the first poll where we have included a past vote weight in addition to our party propensity and EU referendum vote weights. For the most part our party propensity weighting helps to ensure the number of voters for each party in 2015 is accurately reflected in our sample. However, we have noticed some varied responses to our 2015 past vote question during the past couple of months, even after taking account of party propensity, so we have included this in our weighting targets to ensure this remains stable over the course of the campaign.
@PollingDigest on Twitter says the fieldwork was 25th to 28th, FWIW. If that's right I'm confused why Opinium would list the start date of the fieldwork rather than the end.
Though, before I am buried under a pile of weaponised virtual turnips, and it is an interesting piece of social history, I don't think it a convincing case.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Farron has, but he went off message talking about spaniels.
It is bonkers that pollsters change their methodology just before an election. Afterwards, to fix problems they've found would make sense, but just before either means comparisons are wrong or it means they have to provide new and old figures and hope everyone compares like with like.
Seems to me that not for the first time there is far too much overconfidence and far too much bravado from lots of people on here.
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
Indeed. There's a herd mentality. The Tory hope that lies behind the "disarray in all the other three major parties, therefore Tory landslide" narrative that's being pushed so hard seems to rest on three ideas: 1) UKIP took a lot of the working class vote from Labour and now it's going to hand it over to the Tories; 2) few will vote LibDem any more after the coalition period, and since there's no point in anyone who voted LibDem voting Labour, a lot of people who voted LibDem will now vote Tory; and 3) Jeremy Corbyn doesn't look at all as if he'd be welcome at the royal enclosure at Ascot, he's against nuclear war (what a moaning minnie), and he can't control the Trident-loving filthscum patriots in his own parliamentary party, so Labour are no magnet either.
I doubt there's any way the Tories will exceed 50%. Many people find it a right turnoff, watching Tories jump up and down as they last did in 1989.
I think there are very few people expecting the Conservatives to reach 50% or even over 45%.
What people are doubtful about is Labour's poll rating.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Opinium Polling: methinks they are too technical even for themselves. I thought they used a panel!. (that in itself seems dangerous to me). Past voting, not sure that is going to be influential this time, I voted Conservative in 2015, aint this time and have met several of a simlair ilk. Let us see what happens in the locals this week. Might possibly give us a better picture of actual voting rather than the diagnostics of polling technocrats.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
Comments
The actual evidence is that the Lab vote share isn't collapsing as everyone has forecast, it's holding up and it's actually showing fairly strong signs of moving upwards.
And I say that as a Con supporter - not a cheerleader like many on here.
General Election Turnout – 63% and over @ 5/4
Liberal Democrats Total Seats – Under @ 8/11 (26.5)
Moray Constituency - Party Winner – Conservatives @ 4/6
St Ives Constituency - Party Winner – Conservatives @ 7/4
Will Jeremy Corbyn be Labour Leader at 23:00 on 9th June – Still Leader @ 5/4
Conservative Total Seats – Over @ 5/6 (378.5)
SNP Total Seats – Under @ 8/15 (51.5)
Total Conservative Party Seats In Scotland Over/Under – Over @ 6/1 (9.5)
Reasonably happy with those, although I missed out on tastier odds on the Scottish Tories, by being behind in my reading of the thread.
edit to add: all with William Hill, and three of them are free promotional bets.
There are some methodological changes in this poll, so changes may not be comparable. But nothing to suggest the Conservatives are dropping
Edit: yes that's 1/2 not 6/4, I'm a tired numpty who can't add up today!
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
The worry must be in the Lib Dem camp as their poll rating seems to be going in the opposite direction that they expected
I am sure the knowledgeable on here can predict the projected seats on this poll
I think May is not a good campaigner, and her robotic soundbites are already grating.
I make it CON 387, LAB 189, LIB 7 SNP 45 (using the recent Scottish YouGov numbers)
Con majority 124
Extra votes in the inner cities and university seats doesn't help Labour.
If I were to rate the top three problems France has, I would say:
1. It's still addicted to rules and regulations, even more so than the EU.
2. It has an inflexible, sclerotic labour market.
3. The state takes up far too high a share of economic output.
Will, or can, Macron solve these problems? Who knows. He's bright. He's no coward. He doesn't mind telling people what they don't want to here. But can he survive the inevitable strikes and protests and blockages that are a part and parcel of attempting change in France?
I don't know. But I do know that both he, and Fillon, broadly recognise France's problems. Which is more than can be said for Melenchon or Le Pen.
If either bet wins, you win 20 on the winning bet (10 is just return of stake) and you lose 10 on the losing bet. So your total net winnings will be 10.
If you lose both bets you lose 20.
So your overall odds are 1-2.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
Britain Elects @britainelects Apr 27
On who would make the best Prime Minister:
Theresa May: 48% (-6)
Jeremy Corbyn: 18% (+3)
Don't know: 33% (+2)
(via YouGov / 25 - 26 Apr)
... and it's only relatively good.
Can I suggest a double:
Liberal Democrats under 10, at 11-1 with SkyBet.
Also, Liberal Democrats to hold Southport, 11/8 with SkyBet.
I think it's perfectly possible you win both, and I think it's unlikely that the LDs get much into double figures if they're not holding Southport.
https://twitter.com/GilesWatling/status/858364367489859584
The one thing I can see is that the trend in the Opinium polling appears to be more favourable to Labour and less favourable to the Lib Dems than the other pollsters. They are showing the same Ukip collapse effect with the same, apparently related, rise in Conservative support, but all of their Lib Dem numbers and all of their Labour ones are in single figures and close to 30% respectively, save for a single poll taken on the 19th of April. This is not consistent with the other companies.
Bravo to them for not herding and sticking to their guns, but either they've got something right that everybody else hasn't, or they are significantly over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Liberal Democrats.
Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
Still a decent bet, I reckon.
- Your faith in your friends is yours!
Burnley winning 1-0....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/football/39292068
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8atKXFZefA#t=05m00s
Britain Elects @britainelects Apr 26
Our polling average update:
Con: 45.5% (+7.7)
Lab: 25.7% (-5.5)
LDem: 10.8% (+2.7)
UKIP: 8.7% (-4.2)
Grn: 3.4% (-0.4)
Chgs. w/ GE2015.
There's now an opposite problem. The pollsters are regularly finding 10 or 11% of people who said they voted LD. This leads to - those who past vote weight - down rating the LD vote share.
This was one of the things that made me v. bearish on the LDs in 2015, and makes me - while more bearish than the bookies - perhaps slightly more bullish than the PB consensus.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/the-may-mystery-why-is-the-pm-quite-so-popular
Andrew Marr 9am BBC One - Theresa May and Tim Farron
Peston on Sunday - Theresa May, John McDonnell (sgadow chancellor) and Alastar Campbell
Sunday Politics 11am BBC One - Ian Lavery (Labour elections coordinator) and Leanne Wood
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
I am still having trouble believing that Labour are going to do as well as Gordon Brown did come polling day (whilst, hopefully, not being too complacent about the awful possibility that they might, in fact, do so...)
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-25th-april-2017/
Replace the [ ] with < >
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/pictures-day-29-april-2017/
PM's campaign event in Scottish forest prompts new claims she is hiding
I commonly play down the likely effect of Continuity Remain sentiment on the Lib Dems' likelihood of success in this election, but the notion that they've got absolutely nowhere since May 2015 is for the birds.
Unless or until the other pollsters show consistent evidence for a Lib Dem decline and/or Labour recovery, I shall be inclined to believe that Opinium are under-counting the yellows and over-counting the reds.
No amount of weighting makes up for bad sampling.
On the other hand, and on topic, the French polls were very accurate indeed.
LePen is one week away from being toast.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
I doubt there's any way the Tories will exceed 50%. Many people find it a right turnoff, watching Tories jump up and down as they last did in 1989.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/z3xhhv4
Though, before I am buried under a pile of weaponised virtual turnips, and it is an interesting piece of social history, I don't think it a convincing case.
What people are doubtful about is Labour's poll rating.
Jezza every time
Let us see what happens in the locals this week. Might possibly give us a better picture of actual voting rather than the diagnostics of polling technocrats.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.