Opinium Polling: methinks they are too technical even for themselves. I thought they used a panel!. (that in itself seems dangerous to me). Past voting, not sure that is going to be influential this time, I voted Conservative in 2015, aint this time and have met several of a simlair ilk. Let us see what happens in the locals this week. Might possibly give us a better picture of actual voting rather than the diagnostics of polling technocrats.
If the pollsters start buggering about with their methodology off the back of the locals, then we could be in for a polling disaster that makes 2015 look like a decent result for the industry.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Doesn't seem to be going to plan for the LibDems - I'm sure they were hoping for big gains in the local elections to give them momentum to overtake Labour.
Betfair Carshalton Con 9/5 must be worth a few pounds if the Conservative lead over the LibDems is more than 30%.
I have been very bearish on my party. There will be a recovery but there may well be losses to ofset the gains. 15% voteshare and 20 seats would be my target.
I think that we will do well in the locals, and that may well give a useful bit of publicity.
Mostly it takes a week or two for memes to affect polling, so still rather early.
My guess is that you'll be modestly - but not massively - disappointed. I continue to predict 14-15% vote share, and 13-16 seats.
Betting wise I am substantially in the green on the under 10 band. On current polling the 10/1 with PP and Ladbrokes is sadly excellent value.
On the doorsteps generally a positive reception today though, so the toxicity is gone. I think we will see the return of Lab/LD/Green tactical voting, This may well make for some surprising results.
11-1 with SkyBet!
14/1 with Bet365!
Time to dust of my bet365 account!
No activity for years and suddenly logs on to take top price on an obscure market.
Do you think I will be limited before or after the bet?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
Yep. True of my experience today too.
Of course false recall can be a factor face to face too, and Hinckley has only a smallish Labour vote.
It does show how things have changed in Scotland when the British PM is causing panic in the SNP. Normally no one notices the British PM
Panic? It's not the SNP hiding in a but n ben in Aberdeenshire surrounded by the geriatric faithful. Tanks on the SNP lawn, more like a motorbike and sidecar.
Off-topic and meta: how can one post a workable link here to a specific time-point in a Youtube video? The software is truncating URLs with e.g. "#t=03m04s" on the end before the "m".
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
He consistently impresses in the Commons. Presumably the PM has to be in the Commons.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
Ok. I know the standard of UK politician in the UK is bad, but seriously?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Liberal Democrats under 10, at 11-1 with SkyBet. Also, Liberal Democrats to hold Southport, 11/8 with SkyBet.
I think it's perfectly possible you win both, and I think it's unlikely that the LDs get much into double figures if they're not holding Southport.
On the other hand there are more than 10 seats where the LibDems are at shorter than 11/8. Favoured in St Ives, Bermondsey etc which would suggest its unlikely you win both and quite possible both lose ?
(Unless you think that the odds on Southport are mispriced, which they might well be even without Pugh standing)
This is the first poll where we have included a past vote weight in addition to our party propensity and EU referendum vote weights. For the most part our party propensity weighting helps to ensure the number of voters for each party in 2015 is accurately reflected in our sample. However, we have noticed some varied responses to our 2015 past vote question during the past couple of months, even after taking account of party propensity, so we have included this in our weighting targets to ensure this remains stable over the course of the campaign.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
We are in a crisis thanks to 7 years of Tory Govt
Jezza every time
"Crisis? What crisis?"
As that nice Mr Callaghan said when sterling was collapsing..
Yes the country's economy is in poor shape. Growth only due to QE, a huge trade and budget deficit, cannot afford to provide basic services.
And the Tories have as a Leader someone who is at best third rate compared to the giants of the past like McMillan or Thatcher..
And you seriously think that a man who has spent all his adult life protesting and doing nothing constructive will do a better job? A man who would not rate as third rate like Mrs May but would struggle to achieve sixth rate?
I know things are dire but to suggest Corbyn would do better is a meme which questions your judgement - or your sanity...
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
It's fine, if this is your policy:
Yes, that's a good depiction of the reality if Corbyn ever got to power. I reckon they'd try and cede the Falklands and Gibraltar back as well. Who knows what else we'd have to give up.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
The odd rogue bearded loon is a police issue, not a war.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
We are in a crisis thanks to 7 years of Tory Govt
Jezza every time
"Crisis? What crisis?"
As that nice Mr Callaghan said when sterling was collapsing..
Yes the country's economy is in poor shape. Growth only due to QE, a huge trade and budget deficit, cannot afford to provide basic services.
And the Tories have as a Leader someone who is at best third rate compared to the giants of the past like McMillan or Thatcher..
And you seriously think that a man who has spent all his adult life protesting and doing nothing constructive will do a better job? A man who would not rate as third rate like Mrs May but would struggle to achieve sixth rate?
I know things are dire but to suggest Corbyn would do better is a meme which questions your judgement - or your sanity...
Actually that is a headline in the Sun - Jim Callaghan never said it.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
It would surely embolden every single enemy the world over if he was the PM. God, are we really having this conversation?
My reading of the polls now is that Labour voters who may not be enamoured of Corbyn, does not want to give the Tories a massive majority.
I am not quite sure about the Lib Dem numbers. Surely past vote maybe misleading since they crashed from 23% to 8%. So there are 15% of the population, who in the very recent past, voted Lib Dem and not being taken into account as such.
The locals would be a good indicator. Bettors better be ready around 1 am on Friday morning.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
The odd rogue bearded loon is a police issue, not a war.
My reading of the polls now is that Labour voters who may not be enamoured of Corbyn, does not want to give the Tories a massive majority.
I am not quite sure about the Lib Dem numbers. Surely past vote maybe misleading since they crashed from 23% to 8%. So there are 15% of the population, who in the very recent past, voted Lib Dem and not being taken into account as such.
The locals would be a good indicator. Bettors better be ready around 1 am on Friday morning.
Which Friday morning? Most of the locals are counting the next day.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
It would surely embolden every single enemy the world over if he was the PM. God, are we really having this conversation?
Jezza would certainly scale back or stop foreign deployments, Russia would love him.
There is no plausible country that we would fight.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
The odd rogue bearded loon is a police issue, not a war.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
It would surely embolden every single enemy the world over if he was the PM. God, are we really having this conversation?
Jezza would certainly scale back or stop foreign deployments, Russia would love him.
There is no plausible country that we would fight.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
The odd rogue bearded loon is a police issue, not a war.
So nothing to do with who is leader then?
Not really.
It is not a military crisis that I would fear with Corbyn in charge, it would be the financial one.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
He consistently impresses in the Commons. Presumably the PM has to be in the Commons.
The last time one wasn't was in 1963. The last time one was not in the Commons for more than a few days was 1902.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
It would surely embolden every single enemy the world over if he was the PM. God, are we really having this conversation?
Jezza would certainly scale back or stop foreign deployments, Russia would love him.
There is no plausible country that we would fight.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
Oh dear. Your denigration of Nicola Sturgeon will not go down well...
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
It would surely embolden every single enemy the world over if he was the PM. God, are we really having this conversation?
Jezza would certainly scale back or stop foreign deployments, Russia would love him.
There is no plausible country that we would fight.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
LOL, there were no local people there, no-one there knew about it. They bussed in Tory zombies. How pathetic is that.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
Who would attack a UK under Jezza?
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I seriously doubt IS would stop wanting to attack the UK just because of Corbyn.
The odd rogue bearded loon is a police issue, not a war.
So nothing to do with who is leader then?
Not really.
It is not a military crisis that I would fear with Corbyn in charge, it would be the financial one.
A financial crisis would potentially be even more disastrous. And I wasn't talking about a war necessarily before. A terrorist attack, a cyber attack - indeed, any kind of crisis you can imagine, he would be hopelessly and destructively impotent. I reckon a decision at his Local Allotment Association would see him completely vexed.
Though, before I am buried under a pile of weaponised virtual turnips, and it is an interesting piece of social history, I don't think it a convincing case.
My reading of the polls now is that Labour voters who may not be enamoured of Corbyn, does not want to give the Tories a massive majority.
I am not quite sure about the Lib Dem numbers. Surely past vote maybe misleading since they crashed from 23% to 8%. So there are 15% of the population, who in the very recent past, voted Lib Dem and not being taken into account as such.
The locals would be a good indicator. Bettors better be ready around 1 am on Friday morning.
There are loads of places in the UK that have had Liberal councils but don't put Liberals into Westminster other than byelections. I'd be minded to wait a day for the markets to overreact to the local results.
Kim's weapons don't go off anyway, and hopefully never will.
Our politicians are in a different class. May dropped an atom bomb on the media by calling this election. Even Corbyn, we are told by the good Dr @foxinsoxuk, bangs like a belt-fed bazooka.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
The polling bears that out. If Labour is stable, but loads of UKIP supporters go Conservative, then the Conservatives will win big.
That's a richly ironic comment considering one of your fellow Nats upthread was complaining you were likely to be compared to terrorists.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
Don't worry, after your lie about public sector/welsh speaking claim no_one will believe any thing you post.
It does show how things have changed in Scotland when the British PM is causing panic in the SNP. Normally no one notices the British PM
Secret clandestine visits G, last time we saw this Churchill had Scottish soldiers confined to barracks and tanks an dsoldiers on the streets , very sinister indeed.
It does show how things have changed in Scotland when the British PM is causing panic in the SNP. Normally no one notices the British PM
Secret clandestine visits G, last time we saw this Churchill had Scottish soldiers confined to barracks and tanks an dsoldiers on the streets , very sinister indeed.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Neither. I think Angus Robertson would make an excellent Prime Minister of the Progressive Alliance if Farron didn't get the gig.
Angus Robertson would indeed my choice to lead Scotland. They do have good and capable leaders.
Oh dear. Your denigration of Nicola Sturgeon will not go down well...
Ydoethur, Surbiton has good knowledge of Scottish politics and speaks lots of sense. If only the frothers had someone like him.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
We are in a crisis thanks to 7 years of Tory Govt
Jezza every time
ROFL - If the public were that bonkers - then you would find out what a crisis looks like.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
PM Theresa May arrives in north east, expected to ask Scots to vote for her to "strengthen the Union", economy & her hand in Brexit talks. pic.twitter.com/vxtFPGW0Bn
The PM is on Andrew Marr and Peston tomorrow. That is hardly hiding!
LOL, are you barking , poodle in studio with fixed menu of questions. Those two fannies will be too busy licking her butt to ask any serious questions. They will have had orders to stick to the script and keep licking when told to.
PM Theresa May arrives in north east, expected to ask Scots to vote for her to "strengthen the Union", economy & her hand in Brexit talks. pic.twitter.com/vxtFPGW0Bn
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Certainly and the FN will use it as a springboard for the legislative elections in June
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
We are in a crisis thanks to 7 years of Tory Govt
Jezza every time
"Crisis? What crisis?"
As that nice Mr Callaghan said when sterling was collapsing..
Yes the country's economy is in poor shape. Growth only due to QE, a huge trade and budget deficit, cannot afford to provide basic services.
And the Tories have as a Leader someone who is at best third rate compared to the giants of the past like McMillan or Thatcher..
And you seriously think that a man who has spent all his adult life protesting and doing nothing constructive will do a better job? A man who would not rate as third rate like Mrs May but would struggle to achieve sixth rate?
I know things are dire but to suggest Corbyn would do better is a meme which questions your judgement - or your sanity...
Actually that is a headline in the Sun - Jim Callaghan never said it.
"Well, that's a judgment that you are making. I promise you that if you look at it from outside, and perhaps you're taking rather a parochial view at the moment, I don't think that other people in the world would share the view that there is mounting chaos."
- L. J. Callaghan's response to Evening Standard reporter's question "What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?", 10 January 1979; used to justify The Sun headline "Crisis? What Crisis?" on 11 January.
< Given what else we know about the current political climate, the idea both that Labour under Corbyn is doing little or no worse than under EdM, and that the Lib Dems have received no net increase in support over Brexit whatsoever, does not seem terribly plausible. Certainly, if there's been practically no change at all, apart from half the Ukip vote going to Theresa May and a bit of chopping and changing in Scotland, then that would be very, very strange.
DYOR but as I said yesterday, I'm not finding Labour making many converts, but also not now losing many compared with last time - the Corbyn doubters are common but generally either plan to vote Labour faut de mieux or have warmed to him a bit now he's appearing as the leader of the Opposition with decent TV coverage. He has a core of 20%ish who think he's great (more than the Milifans ever mustered), plus 10%ish who are willing to go along. Saying "Do you really want a Tory landslide?" works pretty well.
The really obvious change on the doorstep, though, is ex-Kippers saying they're voting Tory now. Lots of them.
Do you know what's happening with Tory/Remain voters? Are some of them defecting to the LDs or Labour maybe?
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
If we can ignore the 48%, then the French can ignore the 40%.
Though I think Macron will work out pretty well for France, and in 5 years their economy will have significantly recovered. I don't think the next presidential election will be fought on the same ground, and the major parties will get their act together.
Guardian finds whole concept that people in rural areas are worth politicians' time and effort incomprehensible. Invents silly (and politically convenient) explanation accordingly.
Except the people she met were bussed in activists, not locals.
Has she done a single meet the public event yet, anywhere?
Has Corbyn? Not that it makes any difference. Who would you want leading the country in a crisis? Be honest - Corbyn or May?
Corbyn.
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Seriously, if this country ever came under serious attack, you'd want Jeremy Corbyn at the helm? Jesus.
It's fine, if this is your policy:
Yes, that's a good depiction of the reality if Corbyn ever got to power. I reckon they'd try and cede the Falklands and Gibraltar back as well. Who knows what else we'd have to give up.
PM Theresa May arrives in north east, expected to ask Scots to vote for her to "strengthen the Union", economy & her hand in Brexit talks. pic.twitter.com/vxtFPGW0Bn
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
The French have a good system to keep people like her out. Even in the Legislative elections, FN will not get more than 10 seats.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Certainly and the FN will use it as a springboard for the legislative elections in June
A large part of her success is because of distancing herself from her own party.
Rather like Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, it is difficult to name another party figure in FN.
Macron will win but 40%-41% for Le Pen will still be a significant advance for the FN on the 18% her father got in 2002
Yes, a lot of people have failed to acknowledge that she's done incredibly well so far.
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Comments
Do you think I will be limited before or after the bet?
Just their respective positions on nuclear war, let alone everything else, are enough.
Of course false recall can be a factor face to face too, and Hinckley has only a smallish Labour vote.
faithful.
Tanks on the SNP lawn, more like a motorbike and sidecar.
The hundreds of Yoon mock ups of Salmond & Sturgeon as Kim Jong Un & Wee Jimmy Krankie must indicate off the scale readings on the Big G panicometer.
Favoured in St Ives, Bermondsey etc which would suggest its unlikely you win both and quite possible both lose ?
(Unless you think that the odds on Southport are mispriced, which they might well be even without Pugh standing)
"Crisis? What crisis?"
As that nice Mr Callaghan said when sterling was collapsing..
Yes the country's economy is in poor shape. Growth only due to QE, a huge trade and budget deficit, cannot afford to provide basic services.
And the Tories have as a Leader someone who is at best third rate compared to the giants of the past like McMillan or Thatcher..
And you seriously think that a man who has spent all his adult life protesting and doing nothing constructive will do a better job? A man who would not rate as third rate like Mrs May but would struggle to achieve sixth rate?
I know things are dire but to suggest Corbyn would do better is a meme which questions your judgement - or your sanity...
The Russians, Islamists or PRK wouldn't want to. Possibly there may be an insurrection by the few PB Tories who survived their initial apoplexy on June 9...
I am not quite sure about the Lib Dem numbers. Surely past vote maybe misleading since they crashed from 23% to 8%. So there are 15% of the population, who in the very recent past, voted Lib Dem and not being taken into account as such.
The locals would be a good indicator. Bettors better be ready around 1 am on Friday morning.
Mr Corbyn?
There is no plausible country that we would fight.
But don't worry, nobody will compare you to the KKK. They were well-organised. Although come to think of it, they did overreach themselves and it ended in at best partial success...
It is not a military crisis that I would fear with Corbyn in charge, it would be the financial one.
Sanctions at worse.
US - not plausible.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/only-morris-dancers-scotland-offer-2204411
Our politicians are in a different class. May dropped an atom bomb on the media by calling this election. Even Corbyn, we are told by the good Dr @foxinsoxuk, bangs like a belt-fed bazooka.
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/858384000351703040
I have been backing us in plenty of seats to counter the general selling:
https://twitter.com/EastRenTories/status/857997756891353088
Mr. Out, wash your mouth out with soap, young man!
She did well in the first round, just not as well as Macron or as some of her more exuberant supporters hoped. But it was nevertheless a strong performance. If she gets 40% in the second round that will easily eclipse anything her father achieved and represent a new high-water mark for the FN.
She's not going to be President, but 40% is not to be sniffed at.
Oh dear , Mutt and jeff meet in the woods, you could not make it up
The PB Tories are usually so enthusisatic about his approach.
http://www.aol.co.uk/news/2017/04/29/japans-premier-will-continue-to-trust-british-economy-after-br/
- L. J. Callaghan's response to Evening Standard reporter's question "What is your general approach, in view of the mounting chaos in the country at the moment?", 10 January 1979; used to justify The Sun headline "Crisis? What Crisis?" on 11 January.
Making her first appearance in Scotland of the election campaign so far, she told an audience of party activists in a barn in Aberdeenshire: “Every vote for me and my team strengthens my hand in the Brexit negotiations.”
We'll just have to wait it out for YouGov...
Though I think Macron will work out pretty well for France, and in 5 years their economy will have significantly recovered. I don't think the next presidential election will be fought on the same ground, and the major parties will get their act together.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/usvsth3m/david-cameron-photos-perfectly-show-5479506
Is it past the Godwin watershed?
https://twitter.com/gavmacn/status/858361957644218368
Reports of a bloke with an eyepatch and a missing hand being detained cannot be confirmed.
Rather like Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives, it is difficult to name another party figure in FN.
http://www.deeside-railway.co.uk/
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/russia-pre-race-2017.html
Nice grid, but tricky markets.