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But I might be third like the Jezziah's party!
Edit - second! ''Tis an omen for Labour...
Second!Third!Good to know that last week's 9% lead was the outlier we generally thought it was at the time.
The more I read about the adjustments the polling companies are making this time to adjust for the errors in the adjustments they think they might have made the last time, the more I wonder whether any of them actually have a clue?
After that point, there are no longer any Labour MPs. Is that situation accounted for in the rule book?
We will see
May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).
Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
2015 : 42 : 21
2017 : 49 : 15
To suggest many more news cycles like the last few will see them do something similar if even this unfavourable pollster puts them on a 60% increase is not unrealistic.
However, even if they poll ahead of Labour on Election Day unless Labour dip to 12% they will still be second in terms of seats unless UNS breaks down under that sort of stress.
I've sold Lab & bought Con seats at spreadex, for a moderate stake.
Do we have tables? What's the breakdown with C2DE's?
Perhaps you should email Tom Watson!
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1
12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.
But know enough to call it indefensible.
Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3104737079
I think it'd be a good idea if we had a vote on being able to stop that and take back control.
You get £5 back (stake) but also lose £5 stake because an each way bet is effectively two bets: £5 to win (this lost) and £5 to be placed (this won).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
It also doesn't help his case that the guy's Twitter feed reads like he's Gina Miller's best mate. A cynic might say that he is trying to push an agenda.
We're going to need more popcorn. Much more popcorn.
(de-lurking after a number of year's absence from the site. I was here in the very early days but the subsequent site refreshes seem to have archived/deleted thousands of inane posts. Probably a Good Thing.)
I'm with Lake Trasimene to Carrhae at the moment, but 7 weeks of this and we're definitely looking at Cannae territory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Allia
On the Corbyn thing, there is no mechanism for sacking The Leader except in the late Summer/Autumn. That may sound batty to you but there you go. Any attempt at another Coup by MPs would amount to a split.
Sandpit said:
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Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?
English one today Sandpit. Be a miracle if I can repeat it next year.
*checks store room for popcorn*
Enough?
Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).
https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336
But I've become a bit more Conservative - one time I did one of these and had 4 parties within 5 percent
Con 64
LD 55
Lab 54
UKIP 49
Plaid Cymru 34 (but Political Compass says that's where I belong!)
BNP (Still showing a picture of Nick Griffin) 31
Demoratic Unionist 30
I like it though since it suggests which party you might be closest too on certain issues (for Crime I'm closer to Greens and LDs it says, but Healthcare closer to UKIP)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/left-in-the-shadows/
Maybe I'd better order a couple of tons more, just to be on the safe side.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bulk-Grains-Organic-White-Popcorn/dp/B001KWGZWE/
Mr. F, that's the death of Labour either as a party or the main party of opposition.
Mr. G, hmm. You might be right.
Mrs May obviously the witch
Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior
Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....