Are some Tories starting to worry that Corbyn might actually be replaced if this continues?
I assume he'll take his phone off the hook. If Tom Watson or anyone does actually get through to him, can they please take whatever metaphorical pieces of 4-by-2 that are lying around to knock the tiniest fraction of sense into the old bugger.
(I should shut up - I'm starting to hallucinate that he and his followers might actually drink the kool-aid tomorrow and I attain sudden nirvana.)
BTW you're going to love the headline on the next thread
Labour on course for a punishment f&ck?
If it's the one already written, about how the Tories might not get as big a win as they think (and which could still be true), it might be worth putting in a coda about how it was written before these polls.
Mirror ComRes has Tories hitting 50. This won't be a general election. It's going to be the murder of the Labour Party.
Could this be one of those once in a century, epoch defining elections... Last one probably 1924 (when the Liberals "died") ?
in 1924 Labour was there to replace the liberals. the polling isn't showing anyone who would replace Labour (at the moment). This might 'break' the labour party but whether the labour party fixes itself or proves unable to do so over the next 4 to 5 years will say whether the LibDems can overtake Labour.
A new "Labour Party" could emerge in the next week.
- Sunday morning: Labour are going to be wiped out. - Sunday evening: Emmanuel Macron comes first in French election and centre-left media sees the light. - Monday-Friday: Realignment, realignment, realignment.
Mirror ComRes has Tories hitting 50. This won't be a general election. It's going to be the murder of the Labour Party.
Could this be one of those once in a century, epoch defining elections... Last one probably 1924 (when the Liberals "died") ?
in 1924 Labour was there to replace the liberals. the polling isn't showing anyone who would replace Labour (at the moment). This might 'break' the labour party but whether the labour party fixes itself or proves unable to do so over the next 4 to 5 years will say whether the LibDems can overtake Labour.
A new "Labour Party" could emerge in the next week.
Mirror ComRes has Tories hitting 50. This won't be a general election. It's going to be the murder of the Labour Party.
Could this be one of those once in a century, epoch defining elections... Last one probably 1924 (when the Liberals "died") ?
in 1924 Labour was there to replace the liberals. the polling isn't showing anyone who would replace Labour (at the moment). This might 'break' the labour party but whether the labour party fixes itself or proves unable to do so over the next 4 to 5 years will say whether the LibDems can overtake Labour.
A new "Labour Party" could emerge in the next week.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
1) Needed time if she had to no confidence herself and have two weeks to call the election
2) The Tories need seven weeks to tell the country Jezza's back story
Also, CCHQ has a lot of organising to do. Plenty of places still without candidates.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
Haven't they already made 'mistakes' with the prospect of raising taxes and scrapping the triple lock? The mess with the last budget? I've said this before - as dull as May is, her masterstroke was the unequivocal embracing of Brexit. That's a potential 17 million votes UK wide. Add to that mix the repulsion the public feel toward Corbyn and McDonnell, and you have a perfect storm. The polling figures don't seem so outlandish when you think about the circumstances.
I still think it could get even worse for Labour when Crosby goes for Corbyn's throat - and he will, with merciless efficiency.
Just thinking: how many Corbynistas will be claiming May doesn't have a mandate in June if she wins a stonking majority on 48% of the vote on a 60% turnout, accompanied by the dodgiest of pie charts?
I really hate Corbyn right now - I truly do not like to treat the idea of anybody winning with mockery and contempt, not least because I'll feel like a right wally if they then do ok (even if they do still lose), but with polls like these I look like more of a prat if I don't assume a Tory landslide.
It's pretty clear the Tories are getting a surge in Scotland so I guess this is reflected in the national polls which means they're not doing so well in England, which may be some comfort to Lib Dems
It was only ten years ago that Sion Simon wrote “We cannot be killed”.
Altogether now, let us say our prayers:
“We cannot be killed. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.
This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.”
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
1) Needed time if she had to no confidence herself and have two weeks to call the election
2) The Tories need seven weeks to tell the country Jezza's back story
On (2) it feels like the Tories have the sort of job you have as a newly-wed when you hire a really exceptional wedding photographer, but have to pluck out just three or four pictures out of hundreds for display in your living room.
Are some Tories starting to worry that Corbyn might actually be replaced if this continues?
Is there any conceivable mechanism whereby a "Harperson" style candidate could be put in place for the duration of the election campaign with an election of a new leader to take place by say 30 June? I suspect the answer is probably no - but if that is the case what would be the situation were Corbyn unfortunately to fall under the proverbial No.59 Omnibus?
Are some Tories starting to worry that Corbyn might actually be replaced if this continues?
Is there any conceivable mechanism whereby a "Harperson" style candidate could be put in place for the duration of the election campaign with an election of a new leader to take place by say 30 June? I suspect the answer is probably no - but if that is the case what would be the situation were Corbyn unfortunately to fall under the proverbial No.59 Omnibus?
Not her - she is responsible for Corbyn getting the job!
One thing that's been bothering me since the election was announced: have the pollsters sorted out their post 2015 methodology? There was some debate about adjusting on authoritarian/liberal axis post-referendum, and I'm not sure all the weights have been sorted yet. For Survation to show Con at 40% and YouGov to show 50% implies something's up. I'll be interested to see if such a gap between pollsters persists...
West Aberdeenshire Dumfries Berwickshire Aberdeen South East Renfrewshire Moray Perth Angus Stirling Edinburgh South Edinburgh South West / Banff & Buchan
Comments
Aberdeen South
East Lothian
Edinburgh North and Leith
Edinburgh South West
Stirling
Ochil and South Perthshire
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
(I should shut up - I'm starting to hallucinate that he and his followers might actually drink the kool-aid tomorrow and I attain sudden nirvana.)
The Labour Party.
- Sunday morning: Labour are going to be wiped out.
- Sunday evening: Emmanuel Macron comes first in French election and centre-left media sees the light.
- Monday-Friday: Realignment, realignment, realignment.
Ignore the swing - it's really not impossible, although I expect the personal vote for Angus will keep him safe.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_h-Eileanan_an_Iar_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
I don't see how it happens, but if it did happen I think it would as likely as not damage Labour further.
I still think it could get even worse for Labour when Crosby goes for Corbyn's throat - and he will, with merciless efficiency.
@CorbynSuperFan: I was ready to run through walls by pump two, the third sent me into a frenzy. This is going to be a high octane election victory.
Hee.
Con 40
Lab 29
Lib Dem 11
UKIP 11
Which is a rather different story.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855890726554652672
Altogether now, let us say our prayers:
“We cannot be killed. Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906.
This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Labour government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain.”
One thing that's been bothering me since the election was announced: have the pollsters sorted out their post 2015 methodology? There was some debate about adjusting on authoritarian/liberal axis post-referendum, and I'm not sure all the weights have been sorted yet. For Survation to show Con at 40% and YouGov to show 50% implies something's up. I'll be interested to see if such a gap between pollsters persists...
I also wonder how many of the remaining 34 will lose their seats?
Why give the SNP the opportunity to nail Scottish Labour's sarcophugus ?