For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.
Indeed. We used to move up x number of "spine" points and then the spine points were up-rated for inflation, like in the NHS, police, or army. But Osborne stopped that. I've only got 1% each year for years, other than inflation. So my current salary is worh nothing like what my equivalents' was 10 years ago in real terms.
Still better than many many private sector companies where workers can easily have had no pay rise at all in 8 or 9 years. Plus their pension gone.
YouGov tonight for the ST Wales only YouGov on Monday Ipsos Mori this week Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post
If there's one pollster that will put the Tories on 50%+ it's surely MORI...
Good old Bouncy MORI. They were the ones with Tories 52% in 2008ish, right?
Yep. That was the high point of the 05-10 parliament for the Tories after which, Swwwwwwwwwwwiiiiiiiinnnnnngggggg baccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkk occurred.
I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....
I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
I know a few folks who have moved from lifelong SLAB to SNP and now to SCON !
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a genuinely nice person (just like yourself )
I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
They have a simple message - no Indyref2 & Brexit.
The SNP's is more challenging given over 40% of their voters were Leavers
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
True, if I lived in Broxtowe I'd probably vote for Nick over Anna Sourpuss too.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Retreads rarely have anything new or interesting to say. Bring out the sheepdog.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Retreads rarely have anything new or interesting to say. Bring out the sheepdog.
Oooooooooooooo That's not very nice to our Dr Nick.
Anyone considering betting on the result in Ashfield should take note that the Jason Zadrozny saga is still dragging on . Two years ago the Lib Dem PPC ( now leader of Ashfield Independents ) was charged with 24 serious sex offences . At pre trial in January many of the most serious charges were dropped and the police were not in a position to prosecute charges at that time . The police were given until October to decide whether they want to continue with the prosecution . They are no doubt dragging things out as Zadrozny intends to seek legal redress against senior officers of Nottingham Police and Labour Party officials for collusion in bringing the original charges at a critical time immediately prior to the 2015 GE .
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a nice person (just like yourself )
An element of spectacular sound judgement creeps into the final part of your post ....
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
Yes, saw it a few weeks ago and it was excellent, biggest selling movie of 2017 so far (Dan Stevens who plays the Beast was also the year below me at school)
My Grandson 6 cried when Gaston did what he did.( do not want to reveal the story too much, but we all know it). Grandson came home and said "I hate Gaston". The animation took us to a new level, no wonder it has been so well received.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a nice person (just like yourself )
An element of spectacular sound judgement creeps into the final part of your post ....
You seem surprised? I don't only talk rubbish on here you know.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
SNP have around 2,000 members a seat - will defend well and GOTV - 10 seats vulnerable - will be hard-fought - I'd expect SNP over 50 - 54/55 possible
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
Can only think SLab or the tiny number that voted UKIP have completely abandoned them.
I would imagine that Scottish UKIP will struggle to find and put up candidates this time, and the 1% or whatever they got last time will switch strata to SCON, without much fuss.
I'd be astonished if they trouble the scorer - but for the amusement and delight of the Scottish journos covering the campaign, David Coburn is standing.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.
I have a feeling Ruth Davidson's Scottish Conservatives will do better than expected.
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
They have a simple message - no Indyref2 & Brexit.
The SNP's is more challenging given over 40% of their voters were Leavers
Some SNP'ers who voted SNP in GE2015 for a strong Scottish voice in Westminster aren't necesarily independence supporters.
Some SNP'ers will still be nationalists but prioritise Brexit/immigration control over Scottish independence in the EU or EEA, and none.
A chunk of Labour/LD unionists (not all) will swing behind the Scottish Conservatives to send a message on IndyRef too.
I could see a seat like Aberdeen South potentially being very close between SCon and the SNP, with the winner not having much more than 34-35% of the vote.
Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seats
That would require Labour to go to a negative vote total in Moray.
So well within the bounds of possibility at current rate.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
True, if I lived in Broxtowe I'd probably vote for Nick over Anna Sourpuss too.
If I lived in Broxtowe, I would vote for anybody including Monster Raving Loony instead of Anna Soubry.
Anyone considering betting on the result in Ashfield should take note that the Jason Zadrozny saga is still dragging on . Two years ago the Lib Dem PPC ( now leader of Ashfield Independents ) was charged with 24 serious sex offences . At pre trial in January many of the most serious charges were dropped and the police were not in a position to prosecute charges at that time . The police were given until October to decide whether they want to continue with the prosecution . They are no doubt dragging things out as Zadrozny intends to seek legal redress against senior officers of Nottingham Police and Labour Party officials for collusion in bringing the original charges at a critical time immediately prior to the 2015 GE .
You are claiming the police colluded with a political party - you might want to get the mods delete that
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Because it would be a move to the right in Broxtowe ? ....
No... Because he was very nice to me when I was going through a health problem a few years ago and he seems like a nice person (just like yourself )
An element of spectacular sound judgement creeps into the final part of your post ....
Jack, thanks for book tips the other day , I got all four of them between ebay and Amazon , as you said 1715 was only one that cost a decent amount.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.
For once an apposite metaphor - they're (virtually) the only ones with brains on the SNP benches - much as it would be fun there are bigger wastes of space - Nicholson & Wishart spring to mind, let-alone 'make it up as you go along' Cherry......
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
That's a beautiful way of typing "...were absolutely fictional partisan bollocks".
i remember tic toc - just before the truth came out that Labour were in retreat
Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seats
That would require Labour to go to a negative vote total in Moray.
So well within the bounds of possibility at current rate.
Indeed though the poll also showed a 7% direct swing from the SNP to the Tories
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.
For once an apposite metaphor - they're (virtually) the only ones with brains on the SNP benches - much as it would be fun there are bigger wastes of space - Nicholson & Wishart spring to mind, let-alone 'make it up as you go along' Cherry......
You still slavering at that 116 subsample and imagining it is accurate.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Double digits in Scotland would be unbelievable. If they make it to 4 I'd be impressed.
There may be 2 "Portillo moments" in the North East - look out for Moray (Angus Robertson) and Gordon (Alex Salmond). If they both fall, the SNP group at Westminster would be decapitated.
For once an apposite metaphor - they're (virtually) the only ones with brains on the SNP benches - much as it would be fun there are bigger wastes of space - Nicholson & Wishart spring to mind, let-alone 'make it up as you go along' Cherry......
You still slavering at that 116 subsample and imagining it is accurate.
Evening Malc - I have suggested previously that there maybe a move away from the SNP in the north east and borders. This election will either confirm or disprove that theory
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
I'm just back from Twickenham, and similar repsonse. Big remainers. Dr Tania Mathias seen as strong but some Cons saying have to vote for Lib Dem remainer Cable. Blues had 50 people out. odd thing was hardly any undecideds. That's rare 7 weeks out.
J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
It's never more complicated: it's always the same reason.
Immigration paperwork is heinously complicated. A specialist lawyer will charge about £500. It's a mistake to try and cut corners
Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
1935.
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.
TrueBlue,
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.
Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
1935.
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.
TrueBlue,
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.
When I was out with Blues today everyone was saying to MPs around us.."oh yes, everyone loves you" and then tweeting "great day blah blah blah." It was a 50/50 day, no more.
It might be a landslide, but 7 weeks is a long time.
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
It would be a surprise if it was anyone else.....all the subsamples have been pretty consistent.....
I expect it's the SNP who are falling back. I expect them to win only about 40-45 seats (cf 56 last time) with a substantial number of seats (about 10) likely to turn blue in Edinburgh, the Borders and the North-East. SLD and SLAB are also likely to make some gains.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
1935.
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.
You won't always pick up on it. The Tories in 1997 were convinced they weren't going to do too badly. Mitcham & Morden Conservatives expected to increase their majority based on canvassing. In fact they suffered an enormous defeat.
Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
1935.
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.
TrueBlue,
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.
When I was out with Blues today everyone was saying to MPs around us.."oh yes, everyone loves you" and then tweeting "great day blah blah blah." It was a 50/50 day, no more.
It might be a landslide, but 7 weeks is a long time.
We all act as information filters and being human sucome to confirmation bias at lest some of the time.
There is a real danger talking to people you agree with to much, which can be one of the big advantages of this site, but good as PB is its not totally immune form leaving you feeling overly/underly confidant.
Are the activists you are out with, mostly the same team form 2015 or have many left/joined?
J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
It's never more complicated: it's always the same reason.
Immigration paperwork is heinously complicated. A specialist lawyer will charge about £500. It's a mistake to try and cut corners
That's not cheap, but OTOH it isn't really such a vast sum of money. If you've already found the funds to move yourself & your life here, that should be well within reach, I'd have thought. Less than 4 years' TV licences.
Still expecting Labour 150 seats, Tories 400 seats. Nothing has changed in the campaign so far.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
1935.
I'm not feeling Labour meltdown on the streets. The key will be Labour supporters not voting. Lab at 25% and 190 seats lowest.
Your view accords with my own, and is therefore clearly correct.
That was the mistake opinion polls made two years ago.
More seriously, there could be massive regional, even constituency variation this time given all the factors in play. It is eminently posiisble Labour will gain seats in London and lose them in Yorkshire. I will be wary of anecdotes unless the person telling them has visited a variety of seats.
Comments
I expect a level of soft SNP voters to move direct to SCon in some of the seats in which she is challenging, in addition to Unionist voter consolidation.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4435556/Spitting-Image-set-return-TV-screens.html
Now chillaxing with a beer and some pretzels and waiting for Justin to have another PB Meltdown.
I also expect the Tories to make substantial gains in Wales (7-10 seats).
The SNP's is more challenging given over 40% of their voters were Leavers
https://twitter.com/drjennings/status/767417460643471360
Some SNP'ers will still be nationalists but prioritise Brexit/immigration control over Scottish independence in the EU or EEA, and none.
A chunk of Labour/LD unionists (not all) will swing behind the Scottish Conservatives to send a message on IndyRef too.
I could see a seat like Aberdeen South potentially being very close between SCon and the SNP, with the winner not having much more than 34-35% of the vote.
So well within the bounds of possibility at current rate.
PS are the Loonys standing this time?
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/855858246506213384
https://twitter.com/hdebonnevolonte/status/855859722704089088
The 1715 is worth the extra expense and a period not widely covered.
Note the subliminal red tie too......
Time will tell but Libs have a chance.
When was the last time time Labour got under 200 seats at a GE? Must be a long way back.
1% or 40%?
Economist debate:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/04/france-s-presidential-election?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/francespresidentialelectionwhataremarinelepensoddsofvictory
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n88IE2QKVuA
Immigration paperwork is heinously complicated. A specialist lawyer will charge about £500. It's a mistake to try and cut corners
I'd really struggle to vote if I lived there.
Some sort of spoiled ballot covered in cartoon phalli, maybe.
Welcome to PB, and I'm glad you have seed that, there is a defiantly a risk that we on hear, commentators in general and everybody, gets so cared away with saying its a landslide!! that we stop thinking this though properly.
It might be a landslide, but 7 weeks is a long time.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/mori
There is a real danger talking to people you agree with to much, which can be one of the big advantages of this site, but good as PB is its not totally immune form leaving you feeling overly/underly confidant.
Are the activists you are out with, mostly the same team form 2015 or have many left/joined?
More seriously, there could be massive regional, even constituency variation this time given all the factors in play. It is eminently posiisble Labour will gain seats in London and lose them in Yorkshire. I will be wary of anecdotes unless the person telling them has visited a variety of seats.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855869557310976000