If Le Pen wins the presidency, then after she has visited Putin, gone to meet Trump, taken a congratulatory call from Netanyahu, and invited Merkel to come and sit in the waiting room at the Elysée for a while before they shake hands and stuff, she'll probably have a few words with May. She may even ask Britain to come on board and help France propose the new Europe. The soundbite from the Elysée will be pro-British, not anti. What will May and Mophead say? Will they admit to planning for contingencies?
Is there any possibility that the May election results are so bad for Labour that Corbyn goes voluntarily and a caretaker leads them into the GE? (No didn't really think so.)
Is there any possibility that the May election results are so bad for Labour that Corbyn goes voluntarily and a caretaker leads them into the GE? (No didn't really think so.)
It must be getting to the point labour mps resign on mass and stand as independent labour
BIG RICH: from my contacts at work a number of Labour supporters are not going to vote in protest.
Thanks for the update, do you think that as the campaign hears up that will last? or will they fall in to party line? and if you don't mind me asking where in the country is that?
@Andrew_ComRes: Tonight's ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror has Tories on highest vote share of ANY party since Apr '02 & highest for Cons since Jan 1991
UK Polling report only goes back to 2006 for ComRes, but the highest between then and now for any party was 46%.
ComRes was founded in 2003. The biggest Tory poll from Jan 1991 was 51% but as noted earlier MORI had them on 52% in 2008, so something doesn't add up.
@Andrew_ComRes: Tonight's ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror has Tories on highest vote share of ANY party since Apr '02 & highest for Cons since Jan 1991
UK Polling report only goes back to 2006 for ComRes, but the highest between then and now for any party was 46%.
ComRes was founded in 2003. The biggest Tory poll from Jan 1991 was 51% but as noted earlier MORI had them on 52% in 2008, so something doesn't add up.
I think they are talking about highest vote share in a comres poll?
Earlier today I tipped the LDs in Cheadle at 14/1. Now 5/1 apparently.
Shit. How did I miss that?
Probably one of the top 5 most likely LD gains.
If these polls are right there aren't going to be any LD gains, not from the Tories at any rate.
God, imagine being a Tory incumbent who lost their seat should the polls produce a landslide victory. It'll be like being one of the three SNP candidates who didn't win in 2015.
Did anyone in Lab lose their seat to the Tories in 1997?
These are just getting silly now. It's not the case that every other voter you meet is going to vote Tory. I think we're experiencing a polling Maygasm - the surprise of the early election call is generating some strange noise.
If the polls are this good, then May has played an absolute blinder..
If they hold up. Long time til June.
Yep. A Tory majority is at 1.175 at Betfair. A few hours' time from now will probably be an excellent time to sell them. Much easier for them to go down from 50% than up.
The Tory Party’s lead has increased in the last week since the Election announcement, with the party’s voting intention ratings now hitting a massive 50%, with Labour on 25%. This is the first time since April 2002 that any UK political party has achieved 50%, and first time the Conservatives have achieved 50% since January 1991.
The gap between the Conservatives and Labour is reflected in 62% of the public saying that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election compared to 25% who say the same of Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May’s leadership score is higher than that of Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Paul Nuttall combined.
Half of 2015 UKIP voters (48%) now say that they would now vote Conservative, up from 31% last weekend, continuing the Conservatives’ squeeze on UKIP’s vote.
Even what ought to core regional demographics for Jeremy Corbyn say that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister: most voters in Scotland and the North of England say she would make the best Prime Minister (51% and 57% respectively) rather than Jeremy Corbyn (33% and 31%).
And the Election is widely seen as unwinnable for Labour under its current leadership: while six in ten (59%) overall think it unwinnable, even 18-24 year olds are more likely to agree than disagree that the Party cannot win a General Election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader (41% v 26%).
@Andrew_ComRes: Tonight's ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror has Tories on highest vote share of ANY party since Apr '02 & highest for Cons since Jan 1991
UK Polling report only goes back to 2006 for ComRes, but the highest between then and now for any party was 46%.
ComRes was founded in 2003. The biggest Tory poll from Jan 1991 was 51% but as noted earlier MORI had them on 52% in 2008, so something doesn't add up.
I think they are talking about highest vote share in a comres poll?
Yeah, that's my point: ComRes didn't exist in 1991.
I think the correct response is 'gosh' Labour are on course for being pounded like a dockside hooker. Edit: quoting fiasco, plus the edit function has gone all coy again.
These are just getting silly now. It's not the case that every other voter you meet is going to vote Tory. I think we're experiencing a polling Maygasm - the surprise of the early election call is generating some strange noise.
Doubt May can get 50% in the actual election (in GB) - BUT there are large parts of the country where 70% or more WILL vote Tory.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
I think Brentford is the more likely Conservative gain of the two West London super-marginal.
These are just getting silly now. It's not the case that every other voter you meet is going to vote Tory. I think we're experiencing a polling Maygasm - the surprise of the early election call is generating some strange noise.
If the Conservatives get 52% at the election - should we all club together and buy Sunil a steam train?
Could it be that what is going on is that all the "non-voters" who registered and voted in the EU referendum to deliver the result have hung around in the electorate. We are still close enough to the referendum for them to be on the Electoral Registers, and they may be highly motivated to vote to guarantee Brexit. And it is May who they will have to vote for.
I'm wondering now if Corbyn is in fact a long-term Thatcherite mole, dedicated to destroying Labour from inside. Seriously: could he do it any more effectively?
Three in five adults (59%) say that the Labour Party cannot win a General Election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader, including almost half (45%) of 2015 Labour voters.
Similar proportions (55% v 53%) agree that Theresa May was right to call a General Election (per se) as say she was right to call one because of Brexit.
Over 65s are the only age group more likely to agree than disagree that Theresa May has the best interests of people like them at heart, but they do so overwhelmingly(59% v 25%). 64% of them will also vote Conservative on June 8th
These are just getting silly now. It's not the case that every other voter you meet is going to vote Tory. I think we're experiencing a polling Maygasm - the surprise of the early election call is generating some strange noise.
Yep. It'll pull back a bit with the grind of this super long campaign, but at the moment people are indeed making that early assessment, May or Corbyn, and saying 'May, May, oh a thousand times May!'.
But there'll be among those people those who don't want too big a majority, and know they can stay Lab without worrying about letting in Corbyn.
The Lib Dems will be disappointed. I mean, 11% is likely to give them some gains but the optimistic forecasts of 20+ gains need more votes nationally...
Is there any possibility that the May election results are so bad for Labour that Corbyn goes voluntarily and a caretaker leads them into the GE? (No didn't really think so.)
It must be getting to the point labour mps resign on mass and stand as independent labour
If Labour lost every single seat (including his own)... Corbyn would carry on.
I see from Cheadle that in 2015 the 'Above and Beyond' party won 208 votes. Wiki says it is a single issue party which wants a 'None of the above' option on ballot papers.
Could it be that what is going on is that all the "non-voters" who registered and voted in the EU referendum to deliver the result have hung around in the electorate. We are still close enough to the referendum for them to be on the Electoral Registers, and they may be highly motivated to vote to guarantee Brexit. And it is May who they will have to vote for.
Yes but will they actually show up on polling day like last year? Maybe doing so last year gave them a taste for it.
I know that historically the opinion polls have overstated labour and understated the Tories but is it now time to ask the question as to whether the people being polled have started being 'shy labour' because of corbyn causing the reverse to be true. Are we at the point now where we are overstating the Tories and understating Labour (god knows what would happen if it was 50% tory and still underestimating them!)
I get suspicious when there's 50% for any party (I know they were relatively unfounded suspicions in Scotland during the last election)
The Lib Dems will be disappointed. I mean, 11% is likely to give them some gains but the optimistic forecasts of 20+ gains need more votes nationally...
If the Conservatives get 50%, the Lib Dems are unlikely to make more than one or two net gains.
Comments
Here's hoping for a 50%er!
Plus Tom Newton Dunn's an Arsenal fan.
Tim's just told me that he'll tweet the polls around 9.30pm
(No didn't really think so.)
ComRes haven't sent me the embargoed version of their poll.
If you believe these polls, and rumours of polls, y'know.
Baxter'd:
CON 425
Lab 140
LD 8
Con Majority 200....
*digs out D-Ream CD*
;-)
May on course for a 1931-style victory?
I said yesterday that there were only two things that could happen in a poll to make me go wow, and one of them was a Curtis James Jackson III.
God, imagine being a Tory incumbent who lost their seat should the polls produce a landslide victory. It'll be like being one of the three SNP candidates who didn't win in 2015.
Did anyone in Lab lose their seat to the Tories in 1997?
I had the ComRes embargoed email for an hour, but they stuck in my spam folder.
The Tory Party’s lead has increased in the last week since the Election announcement, with the party’s voting intention ratings now hitting a massive 50%, with Labour on 25%. This is the first time since April 2002 that any UK political party has achieved 50%, and first time the Conservatives have achieved 50% since January 1991.
The gap between the Conservatives and Labour is reflected in 62% of the public saying that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister after the upcoming General Election compared to 25% who say the same of Jeremy Corbyn. Theresa May’s leadership score is higher than that of Jeremy Corbyn, Tim Farron and Paul Nuttall combined.
Half of 2015 UKIP voters (48%) now say that they would now vote Conservative, up from 31% last weekend, continuing the Conservatives’ squeeze on UKIP’s vote.
Even what ought to core regional demographics for Jeremy Corbyn say that Theresa May would make the best Prime Minister: most voters in Scotland and the North of England say she would make the best Prime Minister (51% and 57% respectively) rather than Jeremy Corbyn (33% and 31%).
And the Election is widely seen as unwinnable for Labour under its current leadership: while six in ten (59%) overall think it unwinnable, even 18-24 year olds are more likely to agree than disagree that the Party cannot win a General Election with Jeremy Corbyn as leader (41% v 26%).
Labour are on course for being pounded like a dockside hooker.
Edit: quoting fiasco, plus the edit function has gone all coy again.
And its at longer odds as well.
Similar proportions (55% v 53%) agree that Theresa May was right to call a General Election (per se) as say she was right to call one because of Brexit.
Over 65s are the only age group more likely to agree than disagree that Theresa May has the best interests of people like them at heart, but they do so overwhelmingly(59% v 25%). 64% of them will also vote Conservative on June 8th
But there'll be among those people those who don't want too big a majority, and know they can stay Lab without worrying about letting in Corbyn.
The power of PB.
Did anyone else get on ?
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/855874552835997696
I get suspicious when there's 50% for any party (I know they were relatively unfounded suspicions in Scotland during the last election)