J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.
One thing that people don't realise is that the paperwork requirements are savage - one thing missed out or out of place - FAIL.
Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).
How about the Sack of Rome or Fall of Constantnople?
In the morning, I'm compare a Labour shellacking to The Battle of Zama, the defeat that ultimately helped contribute to the wipeout of Carthage, all because they were led by a rubbish general.
In this instance Labour decided to salt their own ground.
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1 12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4 Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.
It seems for all the world like it to me but perhaps I am missing something. I am going to write to them (and trust me not just customer support - I was thinking more investor relations) to ask about it!!
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
Also seen my seat, Stirling , appearing on Tory target lists - Michael Forsyth's old seat - again scalp too far - 4th May should give an indication though.
Picking over my outstanding bets, I've got a tenner on "Yougov to show Labour leading by 2018" at 5/1. Though I'd rather have the tenner back, at least the snap election raises the prospect of a new Labour leader before then who only needs a short honeymoon period for me to win...
The June election has vastly improved that bet I think.
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would be Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line, 49.9% of Moray voters voted Leave in 2016 and 58% No in 2014, on paper it could see the biggest SNP to Tory swing in Scotland. The Tory candidate trying to oust Angus Robertson is a local MSP
Idle thoughts - comparing this election with the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.
Mrs May obviously the witch Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior
Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....
Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seats
PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.
Subsamples are the best. It must be weird for the SNP, since I believe they support PR, to be able to dominate Scotland at Westminster even if they were to go to 43%.
J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.
One thing that people don't realise is that the paperwork requirements are savage - one thing missed out or out of place - FAIL.
PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
Mr. Eagles, in that time, Hannibal faced Cornelius Scipio, Sempronius, Flaminius, Varro, Paullus, Marcellus, Nero and Quintus Fabius Maximus. None defeated him.
Subsamples are the best. It must be weird for the SNP, since I believe they support PR, to be able to dominate Scotland at Westminster even if they were to go to 43%.
Why should it be weird?
Parties privately support the system that gives them the best result. They'll publicly support the system that makes them look most virtuous. Those two things may not coincide.
PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.
This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.
Pollsters certainly don't seem to have a problem with shy Tories in Scotland when it comes time to ring round.
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.
Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
On this poll the Tories would take Moray and it would Unionist tactical voting that would take them over the line
Its not a poll, it's a subsample and too good to be true.
There's a full base poll tomorrow isn't there? Likely wont be quite as 'dramatic'......
How much longer can Labour hold second in share of the vote?
I think the cross over may be in about 2019 and by the UK general election 2022, they will be firmly in 3rd place, 10-15% behind the second place party.
J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .
It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.
One thing that people don't realise is that the paperwork requirements are savage - one thing missed out or out of place - FAIL.
This is what non EU workers have faced for years.
Is this why none ever come - oh...
It is why the well advised hire a good immigration adviser.
An ex did this - she would read the file and then either rejected the case, or asked for a fixed fee, deliverable on success only.
How much longer can Labour hold second in share of the vote?
I think the cross over may be in about 2019 and by the UK general election 2022, they will be firmly in 3rd place, 10-15% behind the second place party.
If Corbyn stays post defeat or is replaced by McDonnell very possibly
As with Mr Miliband, Labour will again threaten taxes on the wealthy, with an increase in the top rate of income tax and a possible mansion tax — as well as a reversal of corporation tax cuts.
But Mr Corbyn will go further, not least by refusing to accept the need for any austerity in the public services. For example he will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
This says "No member of the Party shall engage in conduct which in the opinion of the NEC is prejudicial, or in any act which in the opinion of the NEC is grossly detrimental to the Party." The maximum penalty for this under the rules seems to be expulsion.
Suppose Labour lose the election badly. If the NEC then declare Corbyn's conduct has been grossly detrimental to the party, as proved by their heavy defeat, Corbyn would be out of the party, so no longer eligible to be its leader.
This would be a pretty bizarre turn of events, and require an anti-Corbyn majority on the NEC, but it might be a way for Labour to circumvent its cumbersome procedures for deposing a leader, and ensure Corbyn can't stand in future Labour leadership elections.
As with Mr Miliband, Labour will again threaten taxes on the wealthy, with an increase in the top rate of income tax and a possible mansion tax — as well as a reversal of corporation tax cuts.
But Mr Corbyn will go further, not least by refusing to accept the need for any austerity in the public services. For example he will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
It has to be nailed on that he is offering to offer free uni for all. Only doubt if he goes full nationalisation of all utilities or he will leave it until his second term.
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.
This says "No member of the Party shall engage in conduct which in the opinion of the NEC is prejudicial, or in any act which in the opinion of the NEC is grossly detrimental to the Party." The maximum penalty for this under the rules seems to be expulsion.
Suppose Labour lose the election badly. If the NEC then declare Corbyn's conduct has been grossly detrimental to the party, as proved by their heavy defeat, Corbyn would be out of the party, so no longer eligible to be its leader.
This would be a pretty bizarre turn of events, and require an anti-Corbyn majority on the NEC, but it might be a way for Labour to circumvent its cumbersome procedures for deposing a leader, and ensure Corbyn can't stand in future Labour leadership elections.
They should definitely do that, then he should take them to court.
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.
Mr. Root, in just under seven weeks, the list (amended) I posted below will indicate this crapness in a scientifically precise manner, defined according to Roman battlefield defeats (or success, if Labour gain seats).
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
For example [Corbyn] will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
That'd be nice, but sorry Jezza, I just cannot vote for you just to get a pay rise.
Is it not still the case that a huge number of public sector employees automatically move up a 'grade' every year or two, so are not actually suffering from years of stangnant pay?
Grades have been frozen too. At least, I haven't gone up one in years.
Indeed. We used to move up x number of "spine" points and then the spine points were up-rated for inflation, like in the NHS, police, or army. But Osborne stopped that. I've only got 1% each year for years, other than inflation. So my current salary is worh nothing like what my equivalents' was 10 years ago in real terms.
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1 12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4 Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.
It seems for all the world like it to me but perhaps I am missing something. I am going to write to them (and trust me not just customer support - I was thinking more investor relations) to ask about it!!
Yes, saw it a few weeks ago and it was excellent, biggest selling movie of 2017 so far (Dan Stevens who plays the Beast was also the year below me at school)
I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.
The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.
I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.
My calcs:
13 = 12/1 12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4 Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.
Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.
Surely can't be right? Or can it?
Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.
It seems for all the world like it to me but perhaps I am missing something. I am going to write to them (and trust me not just customer support - I was thinking more investor relations) to ask about it!!
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
Great fun - caused a minor hoo-ha in Malaysia when the director observed that one of the characters was gay & Malaysian censors demanded cuts. Disney said Foxtrot Oscar and removed the film from distribution. Malaysia backed down
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
That's a beautiful way of typing "...were absolutely fictional partisan bollocks".
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
That's a beautiful way of typing "...were absolutely fictional partisan bollocks".
I loved it (didn't like the Jungle Book remake). My young niece did not, but without her I'd not be able to see it.
From my recollections I think they made Gaston even more villainous than the original cartoon.
Same. Didn't like Jungle Book, was therefore not looking forward to this.
It's superb. Funny, clever, visually amazing, great songs, brilliant ideas, and actually quite moving in places.
Ah yes cinemas, I remember them, one of the downsides of my current gig is I get into a town big enough to have a cinema about three times a year, and when I am there its usually some romcom garbage being shown!
Yes, saw it a few weeks ago and it was excellent, biggest selling movie of 2017 so far (Dan Stevens who plays the Beast was also the year below me at school)
My Grandson 6 cried when Gaston did what he did.( do not want to reveal the story too much, but we all know it). Grandson came home and said "I hate Gaston". The animation took us to a new level, no wonder it has been so well received.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
Yerr, you have a point, on NPs Updates from last time, putting to much wait on any one source/type of information can be a risk, but its still interesting to hear. and adds another angle
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
As an aside, whoever is behind the Maomentum Twitter feed is an absolute genius. Political satire at its very best, laugh out loud funny especially when intertwined with retweets from real Corbyn supporters. https://twitter.com/Maomentum_
I assume the one party that's not improving in Scotland is Labour?
Can only think SLab or the tiny number that voted UKIP have completely abandoned them.
I would imagine that Scottish UKIP will struggle to find and put up candidates this time, and the 1% or whatever they got last time will switch strata to SCON, without much fuss.
News from the (English) streets today in Ealing Central and Acton - a Remain-voting London Lab-held Super-marginal you would think one of the first constituencies to fall. Big houses champagne socialism territory:
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
Thanks for the update, these 'dispatches from the front' from activists who are also PB Posters add texture to the poles.
Yes, always interesting but keep in mind Dr Nick Palmer's fabled canvassing returns weren't much help in the end in 2010 and 2015...
To be fair to Nick, he was the candidate. Was hardly going to claim Dan Hodges' £3k prize by saying he thought he was going to lose on a public forum, was he?
Don't get me wrong I like Dr Nick. If he is standing again in Broxtowe in 2017 I wish him every success in beating Ms. Soubry...
Comments
This is what non EU workers have faced for years.
In this instance Labour decided to salt their own ground.
Like the YouGov and ICM polls in the week, UKIP’s vote has fallen sharply to the benefit of the Conservative party. With all three polls conducted since Theresa May’s announcement showing this same pattern I think we can be confident it’s a real trend. On the face of it a significant number of people who were saying they’d vote UKIP when asked about a hypothetical election appear to be saying they’d vote Conservative now there is an actual election just seven weeks away.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9837
Only 8 of them staggered out of the desolation, covered in blood.
Mr. Eagles, Hannibal marauded around Italy for over a decade. Corbyn's done nothing comparable.
Edited extra bit: must say, I don't think Labour will fall that far.
I see this election as being somewhere between Carrhae and Teutoberg forest.
Now that's a sentence I never thought I would type
That's even more impressive than marauding across Italy for a decade.
Corbyn has faced Owen Smith.
Mr. Rich (and others), thanks
It makes procrastinating from work worthwhile
Parties privately support the system that gives them the best result. They'll publicly support the system that makes them look most virtuous. Those two things may not coincide.
It's not for the faint of heart or those eating.
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/polls_scot.html
An ex did this - she would read the file and then either rejected the case, or asked for a fixed fee, deliverable on success only.
She had an incredible reputation in her area.
As with Mr Miliband, Labour will again threaten taxes on the wealthy, with an increase in the top rate of income tax and a possible mansion tax — as well as a reversal of corporation tax cuts.
But Mr Corbyn will go further, not least by refusing to accept the need for any austerity in the public services. For example he will promise an end to the public sector freeze under which pay awards have been held back at just 1 per cent a year for four years.
If Mr Corbyn makes it to 10 Downing Street — despite the odds — he would “renationalise” the NHS by removing all private company provision.
https://www.ft.com/content/9b58c4f4-277e-11e7-8995-c35d0a61e61a
This says "No member of the Party shall engage in conduct which in the opinion of the NEC is prejudicial, or in any act which in the opinion of the NEC is grossly detrimental to the Party." The maximum penalty for this under the rules seems to be expulsion.
Suppose Labour lose the election badly. If the NEC then declare Corbyn's conduct has been grossly detrimental to the party, as proved by their heavy defeat, Corbyn would be out of the party, so no longer eligible to be its leader.
This would be a pretty bizarre turn of events, and require an anti-Corbyn majority on the NEC, but it might be a way for Labour to circumvent its cumbersome procedures for deposing a leader, and ensure Corbyn can't stand in future Labour leadership elections.
Does anybody really believe no cuts corbyn won't result in higher taxes.
PB did a long time ago.
"Corbyn is crap"
-100 Battle Of Adrianople?
YouGov tonight for the ST
Wales only YouGov on Monday
Ipsos Mori this week
Scotland only (pollster not given) for tomorrow's Sunday Post
https://twitter.com/RossThomsonMSP/status/855841883851042816
Plenty of disgust at the Cons (NHS, Brexit, immigrant registers, broken promises).
Some despair from Lab voters at Jezza. Many thought he was a breath of fresh air.
Some Lab and Cons voters now without a home. Net net I think enough Lab voters will go LD giving it to Cons I hope but no room for complacency.
No value from the betting markets here but plenty of Lab support.
https://twitter.com/LivEchonews/status/855431419996274689
From my recollections I think they made Gaston even more villainous than the original cartoon.
Edit: As for 'has anyone else seen' it, well given the amount of money it has made, probably everyone.
Honestly, there is a limit. Labour has many die hard supporters and will be sheltered a lot by the electoral system.
I thought going down to 70 seat losses was quite sufficient.
Still, in the interests of science and completeness, I shall add a few more.
Edited extra bit: although, I've managed to stick with just Western stuff so far, and those two are Eastern.
£5@12/1 loser
£5@12/5 winner
Stake £10
Return £17
Profit £7
Boris and Ken managed it for a year each.
Grandson came home and said "I hate Gaston".
The animation took us to a new level, no wonder it has been so well received.
As an aside, whoever is behind the Maomentum Twitter feed is an absolute genius. Political satire at its very best, laugh out loud funny especially when intertwined with retweets from real Corbyn supporters. https://twitter.com/Maomentum_
https://twitter.com/AIex_SaImond/status/855846270140915713