I hope everyone remembers, when things calm down over the next few weeks, that the Tories would have been happy with 60-80 majority, so if they end up getting that, it won't be a disappointment, even if from these heights it looks like it should be.
Hmm - even the most optimistic have been struggling to see more than about 5 prospective Tory gains in Scotland, what ones could possibly be vulnerable?
So what are Team Jezza's plan for next week. He has tried the rigged election routine, of course the Tories, the Tories, the Tories, the NHS, .....fake fat Elvis you are needed.
Yup, this is the one that TSE is ramping. Got to be.
It's quite difficult to get them to 12 on Baxter
I would assume that it factors in unionist tactical voting which Baxtering can't do. If not then the poll may be even more seismic than it seems from the headline.
If the conservatives win 12 seats does that take the SNP down to 47 if no Lib Dems
Shetland & Orkney will always be LD, and the LDs won the Fife constituency in the Scottish Parliament election, so I assume that they'd get those two. SNP down to 45 in that case.
And the rest. Unbelievable really, remember when everyone though the EU referendum would tear the Conservatives apart?
It did tear the Conservatives apart, but May's phoenix rose from the Cameroonian ashes. To quote Neil Kinnock, they got their party back.
In the medium term, becoming the Brexit Party will have consequences of course. Team UK is in for a rough ride over the next few years, and the Tory party will now suffer as a consequence. Thing is, she could've taken advantage of Labour's Corbyn problem without tying her party's flag so tightly to the Brexit mast, so I imagine quite a few Tories will start to fall out of love with her before too long.
I hope everyone remembers, when things calm down over the next few weeks, that the Tories would have been happy with 60-80 majority, so if they end up getting that, it won't be a disappointment, even if from these heights it looks like it should be.
People didn't remember that for the 2010 election, which for years wasn't supposed to yield a Tory majority.
What spin, there's about 4 more polls due tonight.
You better not be bamboozling us...
I think its fair to say that his comment was a fair reflection of what a lot of us felt when we read about the Scot findings.
I think a comment on 1-2 seats would have been met with "oh well, hoped for a bit better, work still to do.....". but 12 is double most optimistic estimates.....
If the conservatives win 12 seats does that take the SNP down to 47 if no Lib Dems
Shetland & Orkney will always be LD, and the LDs won the Fife constituency in the Scottish Parliament election, so I assume that they'd get those two. SNP down to 45 in that case.
Angus Robertson in Moray must be under threat. I am not surprised as most of my Scots family live in Moray and the fishing communities are pro Brexit
12 seats is roughly where the Tories were in 1987 and 1992. Probably the same constituencies as then, taking boundary changes into account. (Except Edinburgh South).
It's pretty clear the Tories are getting a surge in Scotland so I guess this is reflected in the national polls which means they're not doing so well in England, which may be some comfort to Lib Dems
If the conservatives win 12 seats does that take the SNP down to 47 if no Lib Dems
Shetland & Orkney will always be LD, and the LDs won the Fife constituency in the Scottish Parliament election, so I assume that they'd get those two. SNP down to 45 in that case.
Angus Robertson in Moray must be under threat. I am not surprised as most of my Scots family live in Moray and the fishing communities are pro Brexit
If the conservatives win 12 seats does that take the SNP down to 47 if no Lib Dems
Shetland & Orkney will always be LD, and the LDs won the Fife constituency in the Scottish Parliament election, so I assume that they'd get those two. SNP down to 45 in that case.
Angus Robertson in Moray must be under threat. I am not surprised as most of my Scots family live in Moray and the fishing communities are pro Brexit
I'm on record as saying he's safe - so he's probably doomed!
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
If the conservatives win 12 seats does that take the SNP down to 47 if no Lib Dems
Shetland & Orkney will always be LD, and the LDs won the Fife constituency in the Scottish Parliament election, so I assume that they'd get those two. SNP down to 45 in that case.
Angus Robertson in Moray must be under threat. I am not surprised as most of my Scots family live in Moray and the fishing communities are pro Brexit
I'm on record as saying he's safe - so he's probably doomed!
Lot of SNP members who are Brexiteers and pro Union. Remember RAF Lossiemouth has just had a 400 million defence award and the investment must be threatened on Independence.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
They couldn't do it much quicker, due to FTA, local election etc etc etc.
And the rest. Unbelievable really, remember when everyone though the EU referendum would tear the Conservatives apart?
It did tear the Conservatives apart, but May's phoenix rose from the Cameroonian ashes. To quote Neil Kinnock, they got their party back.
In the medium term, becoming the Brexit Party will have consequences of course. Team UK is in for a rough ride over the next few years, and the Tory party will now suffer as a consequence. Thing is, she could've taken advantage of Labour's Corbyn problem without tying her party's flag so tightly to the Brexit mast, so I imagine quite a few Tories will start to fall out of love with her before too long.
Mirror ComRes has Tories hitting 50. This won't be a general election. It's going to be the murder of the Labour Party.
Could this be one of those once in a century, epoch defining elections... Last one probably 1924 (when the Liberals "died") ?
in 1924 Labour was there to replace the liberals. the polling isn't showing anyone who would replace Labour (at the moment). This might 'break' the labour party but whether the labour party fixes itself or proves unable to do so over the next 4 to 5 years will say whether the LibDems can overtake Labour.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
That's the thing that's getting me 3 swift bubbly weeks of froth and bam an eternal Con majority across the land.
West Aberdeenshire Dumfries Berwickshire Aberdeen South East Renfrewshire Moray Perth Angus Stirling Edinburgh South Edinburgh South West / Banff & Buchan
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
Since the FTPA there have to be 5 weeks - excluding Bank Holidays - between Dissolution and Polling Day.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
Minimum is five weeks which would I think have put it in schools' half term?
If the conservatives win 12 seats does that take the SNP down to 47 if no Lib Dems
Shetland & Orkney will always be LD, and the LDs won the Fife constituency in the Scottish Parliament election, so I assume that they'd get those two. SNP down to 45 in that case.
Angus Robertson in Moray must be under threat. I am not surprised as most of my Scots family live in Moray and the fishing communities are pro Brexit
I'm on record as saying he's safe - so he's probably doomed!
Lot of SNP members who are Brexiteers and pro Union. Remember RAF Lossiemouth has just had a 400 million defence award and the investment must be threatened on Independence.
Certainly the SNP has the highest proportion of LEAVE voters after UKIP and the Tories....
Mirror ComRes has Tories hitting 50. This won't be a general election. It's going to be the murder of the Labour Party.
Never before in the history of the Labour Party had such a mass of voters moved and suffered together. This was no disciplined march, it was a stampede, without order and without a goal, millions of people, ideologically unprepared, driving headlong away from the party. It was the beginning of the rout of civilization, of the massacre of the left wing.
Richard Burton, War of the Worlds (2017 GE, amended version)
Actually, I'm among the more optimistic about their chances.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
Since the FTPA there have to be 5 weeks - excluding Bank Holidays - between Dissolution and Polling Day.
Could have dissolved two weeks earlier, but then wouldn't have had time for wash up.
If CCHQ's private polling was anything like this, why did Mrs May go for a 7 week campaign?
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
1) Needed time if she had to no confidence herself and have two weeks to call the election
2) The Tories need seven weeks to tell the country Jezza's back story
Comments
Tactical Unionist Voting could see those 12 Tory seats in Scotland, a lot higher.
Sorry to shout. Betfair Sports only have a handful.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855883786206281730
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/855885980267663362
I am on PP but they only have a few up - would someone please tell me were there is a wider selection of constituency bets? Thanks.
Those prices won't last more than a few more minutes.
Oh, you said Classical World
Total Conservative Party Seats In Scotland Over/Under
Over 9.5 at 20/1
https://goo.gl/7cTbAf
A quick cut and run of the bare minimum would have been most sensible. The greatest risk now seems to be the prospect of either a Con mistake, apathy, or a feeling that an overwhelming victory is bad for democracy taking hold.
All of these are more likely with a longer campaign.
In 100 years time, in a lonely cemetery, there will be a tombstone.
Inscribed in lettering still legible will be the words:
Here lies Jeremy Corbyn.
He thought he was a hero,
but he destroyed the Labour Party.
https://twitter.com/CorbynSuperFan/status/855887975531589632
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855888626701533184
If you take the 2015 vote and add 66% of the Lab vote to Con then I make it 30% Con support and 5 Seats to the Conservatives in Scotland.
The 3 borders seats, East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South.
And what better way to preserve the Union than to have a Scottish Tory UK PM?
West Aberdeenshire
Dumfries
Berwickshire
Aberdeen South
East Renfrewshire
Moray
Perth
Angus
Stirling
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh South West / Banff & Buchan
Have I missed any more obvious targets?
Richard Burton, War of the Worlds (2017 GE, amended version)
Actually, I'm among the more optimistic about their chances.
2) The Tories need seven weeks to tell the country Jezza's back story