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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

New @OpiniumResearch

Read the full story here

rcs1000

First!

ydoethur

I'm guessing about fifth, like UKIP.

But I might be third like the Jezziah's party!

Edit - second! ''Tis an omen for Labour...

Sandpit

Second! Third!

Good to know that last week's 9% lead was the outlier we generally thought it was at the time.

kle4

If they are right.

kle4

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

IanB2

Sixth, like SLab ?

The more I read about the adjustments the polling companies are making this time to adjust for the errors in the adjustments they think they might have made the last time, the more I wonder whether any of them actually have a clue?

MyBurningEars

Is there even a mechanism to depose Corbyn once Parliament is dissolved?

After that point, there are no longer any Labour MPs. Is that situation accounted for in the rule book?

rottenborough

Oh please tell me Labour are going to come third!!!

tlg86

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

RobD

Just rejoice at that news...

timmo

Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
We will see

CarlottaVance

No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
2015 : 42 : 21
2017 : 49 : 15

ydoethur

The Alliance briefly moved ahead of Labour in the polls in 1983 at the end of the campaign, which presaged an impressive 25% in the national vote (admittedly one poll in 1981 put them on 50%).

To suggest many more news cycles like the last few will see them do something similar if even this unfavourable pollster puts them on a 60% increase is not unrealistic.

However, even if they poll ahead of Labour on Election Day unless Labour dip to 12% they will still be second in terms of seats unless UNS breaks down under that sort of stress.

Bromptonaut

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

Pong

Time to believe the polls.

I've sold Lab & bought Con seats at spreadex, for a moderate stake.

Do we have tables? What's the breakdown with C2DE's?

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

Maybe the public are herding?:)

Richard_Nabavi

MyBurningEars said:

Is there even a mechanism to depose Corbyn once Parliament is dissolved?

After that point, there are no longer any Labour MPs. Is that situation accounted for in the rule book?

Ha! Clever point - there are of course still MEPs.

Perhaps you should email Tom Watson!

tlg86

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?

GIN1138

Blimey...

FrancisUrquhart

May on hearing the new poll...

RobD

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
2015 : 42 : 21
2017 : 49 : 15

That's good, but it hardly speaks poorly of Cameron and Osborne - look who May and Hammond are up against! It ain't no Miliband and Balls.

MarkSenior

timmo said:

Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
We will see

I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong

TheScreamingEagles

CarlottaVance said:

No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
2015 : 42 : 21
2017 : 49 : 15

I wrote this thread on short notice from Mike, whilst watching Spurs choke again.

rogerh

If Opinium have a 4% increase for the Lib Dems and this was repeated with You Gov then 15-16% could be their new polling figure.

TOPPING

Betting question team -

I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.

The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.

I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.

My calcs:

13 = 12/1
12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.

Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.

Surely can't be right? Or can it?

Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?

DavidL

How much longer can Labour hold second in share of the vote?

Bromptonaut

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?

The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.

CarlottaVance

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know.

You don't know.

But know enough to call it indefensible.

SimonStClare

If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

felix

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
We will see

I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong

Or, more likely, last one n outlier.

TheScreamingEagles

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

Maybe the public are herding?:)

This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.

Morris_Dancer

PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene

If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea

And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama

Bromptonaut

CarlottaVance said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know.

You don't know.

But know enough to call it indefensible.

It's called irony. It's a linguistic device, very popular I'm told. You should try it.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.

Recall the Northern Singaporean Granny who'd lived here for 30 years a couple of years being suddenly deported after two years and who didn't have any family in Singapore so stayed with her sister in Singapore?

tlg86

Bromptonaut said:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?

The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.

We won't be deporting anybody, of that I am sure. The Germans and the rest of the EU... I'm not so sure.

Richard_Nabavi

Do any bookies other than Betfair/Paddy have constituency markets up yet?

HYUFD

New 'Isidewith' general election survey out, I got 73% Tory, 55% UKIP, 51% Labour, 48% DUP
http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3104737079

kle4

Bromptonaut said:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?

The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.

Empathy has been expressed, along with wanting to see the facts before reaching a conclusion, you could try doing the same before getting morally superior?

TheScreamingEagles

I took part in this poll.

GeoffM

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

Yes, you are probably right - some foreign overseas unelected and unaccountable body seem to have allowed her to bypass our rules.

I think it'd be a good idea if we had a vote on being able to stop that and take back control.

ToryJim

Now that there's an election it isn't in the immediate interests of Labour to get rid of Corbyn. They need him and the wider left to fully own the defeat. of course the counter argument will be that the PLP never worked with Corbyn and so the glorious popularity of extreme left wing policy was stymied by divisions. Since 2007 the Labour Party have gone left, been defeated, gone further left, been defeated and keep deciding that voters keep electing Tories because Labour isn't sufficiently left wing. They may decide that again, against all logic and experience.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

Maybe the public are herding?:)

This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.

Does the S in TSE stand for Sion?

MarkSenior

felix said:

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
We will see

I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong

Or, more likely, last one n outlier.

Nope because that would mean all previous recent Opinium polls were outliers

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Topping, I believe they're correct.

You get £5 back (stake) but also lose £5 stake because an each way bet is effectively two bets: £5 to win (this lost) and £5 to be placed (this won).

Floater

Jezza is Ed squared, with extra baggage.

RobD

Bromptonaut said:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?

The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.

Given that we've apparently been fully sovereign all along there was no guarantee of that before either....

GeoffM

TheScreamingEagles said:

I took part in this poll.

Who did you say you were voting for?

DavidL

TheScreamingEagles said:

CarlottaVance said:

No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
2015 : 42 : 21
2017 : 49 : 15

I wrote this thread on short notice from Mike, whilst watching Spurs choke again.

It's also a completely unfair comparator. Ed &Ed were like Keynes and Hayek compared to these 2.

RobD

MarkSenior said:

felix said:

MarkSenior said:

timmo said:

Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
We will see

I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong

Or, more likely, last one n outlier.

Nope because that would been all previous recent Opinium polls were outliers

Looking at the wiki table, the polls on 14-17 of Mar and 14-16 of Feb don't look like outliers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

Floater

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

LOL

justin124

ydoethur said:

The Alliance briefly moved ahead of Labour in the polls in 1983 at the end of the campaign, which presaged an impressive 25% in the national vote (admittedly one poll in 1981 put them on 50%).

To suggest many more news cycles like the last few will see them do something similar if even this unfavourable pollster puts them on a 60% increase is not unrealistic.

However, even if they poll ahead of Labour on Election Day unless Labour dip to 12% they will still be second in terms of seats unless UNS breaks down under that sort of stress.

On a GB basis the Alliance polled over 26% in 1983.

Sandpit

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.

These things usually are, and it will most likely get resolved in due course.

It also doesn't help his case that the guy's Twitter feed reads like he's Gina Miller's best mate. A cynic might say that he is trying to push an agenda.

brokenwheel

SimonStClare said:

If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

The waters are due to break soon surely...

TheScreamingEagles

GeoffM said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I took part in this poll.

Who did you say you were voting for?

DK

RobinWiggs

FPT:

CarlottaVance said:

On almost every count, May wins. Some 49% of all voters now approve of the way she is running the country, against just 18% who express approval for Corbyn’s leadership.

That 18% is probably a reasonable indication of Corbyn-Labour's floor at present. Things could get much worse than the current c26% polling.... and the tipping point may come when the Hamas/IRA/Soviet-loving attacks come.

We're going to need more popcorn. Much more popcorn.

(de-lurking after a number of year's absence from the site. I was here in the very early days but the subsequent site refreshes seem to have archived/deleted thousands of inane posts. Probably a Good Thing.)

kle4

Morris_Dancer said:

PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene

If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea

And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama

Love it.

I'm with Lake Trasimene to Carrhae at the moment, but 7 weeks of this and we're definitely looking at Cannae territory.

RobD

kle4 said:

Bromptonaut said:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?

The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.

Empathy has been expressed, along with wanting to see the facts before reaching a conclusion, you could try doing the same before getting morally superior?

Don't hold your breath....

Dougie

Any idea of the time that the Sunday Post Scottish poll is due to be released?

RobD

Sandpit said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

FPT:

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?

No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.

These things usually are, and it will most likely get resolved in due course.

It also doesn't help his case that the guy's Twitter feed reads like he's Gina Miller's best mate. A cynic might say that he is trying to push an agenda.

I'm shocked...

another_richard

Morris_Dancer said:

PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene

If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea

And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama

Con gain Bolsover:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Allia

Floater

SimonStClare said:

If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

Because Trotskyist terrorist loving Jezza is really, really unelectable perhaps?

CarlottaVance

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

Maybe the public are herding?:)

This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.

It may yet prove prescient - its early days and voter apathy - confident of Corbyn being blocked - may yet reduce the Tory lead

paulbarker

Right now I am "expecting" the 1st Poll to show The Libdems in 2nd place to arrive around mid May, but things seem to be accelerating all the time. I dont think we can put a floor on how low Labour can go. What happens if lots of people start to beleive Labour will come 3rd ? Will we see defections ?
On the Corbyn thing, there is no mechanism for sacking The Leader except in the late Summer/Autumn. That may sound batty to you but there you go. Any attempt at another Coup by MPs would amount to a split.

ToryJim

Morris_Dancer said:

PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene

If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea

And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama

Mr Dancer at the moment we are looking at one of the top three on your list. I think we can largely ignore thoughts of net Labour gains.

malcolmg

FPT
Sandpit said:

» show previous quotes
Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?

English one today Sandpit. Be a miracle if I can repeat it next year.

SimonStClare

brokenwheel said:

SimonStClare said:

If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

The waters are due to break soon surely...

Arf - worthy of a ba dum tish...!

calum

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/election-2017-could-moray-be-the-snp-s-portillo-moment-1-4426212

Floater

RobD said:

Just rejoice at that news...

Slightly against the narrative I just saw on Sky news to be fair

Sandpit

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

*checks store room for popcorn*



Enough?

Quincel

Picking over my outstanding bets, I've got a tenner on "Yougov to show Labour leading by 2018" at 5/1. Though I'd rather have the tenner back, at least the snap election raises the prospect of a new Labour leader before then who only needs a short honeymoon period for me to win...

Floater

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

*checks store room for popcorn*



Enough?

No where near enough

Morris_Dancer

Welcome back, Mr. Wiggs.

Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).

Sandpit

malcolmg said:

FPT
Sandpit said:

» show previous quotes
Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?

English one today Sandpit. Be a miracle if I can repeat it next year.

Ah, so a Scottish horse won the English race, and an English horse won the Scottish race. Your prize should be to write a guest piece next April on predicting the most unpredictable races of the season!

Recidivist

ToryJim said:

Now that there's an election it isn't in the immediate interests of Labour to get rid of Corbyn. They need him and the wider left to fully own the defeat. of course the counter argument will be that the PLP never worked with Corbyn and so the glorious popularity of extreme left wing policy was stymied by divisions. Since 2007 the Labour Party have gone left, been defeated, gone further left, been defeated and keep deciding that voters keep electing Tories because Labour isn't sufficiently left wing. They may decide that again, against all logic and experience.

Is that really what happened? It is a nice simple narrative, and it is always fun to characterise a group you aren't a member of as idiots. But maybe the story is more complicated.

Scott_P

Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

DavidL

calum said:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/election-2017-could-moray-be-the-snp-s-portillo-moment-1-4426212

Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.

MaxPB

Scott_P said:

Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

That could produce some odd results.

RobinWiggs

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

*checks store room for popcorn*



Enough?

For the first couple of weeks' skirmishing perhaps, but once the short campaign starts I think you'll need more than that.

kle4

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

Maybe the public are herding?:)

This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.

Give it a week or two, maybe it'll look prescient.

HYUFD said:

New 'Isidewith' general election survey out, I got 73% Tory, 55% UKIP, 51% Labour, 48% DUP
http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3104737079

Bit out of date.

But I've become a bit more Conservative - one time I did one of these and had 4 parties within 5 percent

Con 64
LD 55
Lab 54
UKIP 49

Plaid Cymru 34 (but Political Compass says that's where I belong!)
BNP (Still showing a picture of Nick Griffin) 31
Demoratic Unionist 30

I like it though since it suggests which party you might be closest too on certain issues (for Crime I'm closer to Greens and LDs it says, but Healthcare closer to UKIP)

glw

Floater said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

*checks store room for popcorn*



Enough?

No where near enough

Surely there is some sort of EU popcorn mountain that we have a share in?

Sean_F

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome back, Mr. Wiggs.

Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).

How about the Sack of Rome or Fall of Constantnople?

Stark_Dawning

Recidivist said:

ToryJim said:

Now that there's an election it isn't in the immediate interests of Labour to get rid of Corbyn. They need him and the wider left to fully own the defeat. of course the counter argument will be that the PLP never worked with Corbyn and so the glorious popularity of extreme left wing policy was stymied by divisions. Since 2007 the Labour Party have gone left, been defeated, gone further left, been defeated and keep deciding that voters keep electing Tories because Labour isn't sufficiently left wing. They may decide that again, against all logic and experience.

Is that really what happened? It is a nice simple narrative, and it is always fun to characterise a group you aren't a member of as idiots. But maybe the story is more complicated.

Former PBer Nick Cohen reckons Jezz might stay on even if Labour suffers the most catastrophic defeat in British political history:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/left-in-the-shadows/

MrsB

surely Mr Dancer, you should have included "meeting the same fate as the 9th Legion". I can just imagine the scene as Ian Murray stumbles back over Hadrians Wall through the mist on the morning of 9th June

RobD

Scott_P said:

Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

Sean_F

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

MarkSenior said:

J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.

tlg86 said:

Bromptonaut said:

Indefensible.

https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?

It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.

Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.

Maybe the public are herding?:)

This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.

It may yet prove prescient - its early days and voter apathy - confident of Corbyn being blocked - may yet reduce the Tory lead

Whatever happened to Brownian Blitzkreig?

DavidL

Scott_P said:

Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

Wow. Add up the Unionists and SNP + Green and you get roughly 55:45.

HYUFD

Scott_P said:

Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seats

malcolmg

TOPPING said:

Betting question team -

I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.

The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.

I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.

My calcs:

13 = 12/1
12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.

Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.

Surely can't be right? Or can it?

Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?

Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.

Chris

I don't know whether Opinium has changed its methodology, but their Lib Dem ratings in 2015 were in line with the election result. The final poll put the Lib Dems at 8%, exactly right.

DavidL

glw said:

Floater said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

*checks store room for popcorn*



Enough?

No where near enough

Surely there is some sort of EU popcorn mountain that we have a share in?

No, no, no we have a legal obligation to pay for all the popcorn required by the EU forever. Williamglen had a quote from someone really obscure that proved it just the other day.

CarlottaVance

DavidL said:

calum said:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/election-2017-could-moray-be-the-snp-s-portillo-moment-1-4426212

Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.

It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....

Sandpit

RobinWiggs said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

*checks store room for popcorn*



Enough?

For the first couple of weeks' skirmishing perhaps, but once the short campaign starts I think you'll need more than that.

Mrs Sandpit just reminded me that she likes popcorn too, even though she doesn't really understand too much about British politics.

Maybe I'd better order a couple of tons more, just to be on the safe side.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bulk-Grains-Organic-White-Popcorn/dp/B001KWGZWE/

Morris_Dancer

Mrs B, but no-one quite knows the fate of the Ninth Legion...

Mr. F, that's the death of Labour either as a party or the main party of opposition.

Mr. G, hmm. You might be right.

Morris_Dancer

Do we have a schedule for the French first round results?

MrsB

Idle thoughts - comparing this election with the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

Mrs May obviously the witch
Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior

Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....

MrsB

Morris_Dancer said:

Mrs B, but no-one quite knows the fate of the Ninth Legion...

except they disappeared.....

DavidL

MrsB said:

Idle thoughts - comparing this election with the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

Mrs May obviously the witch
Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior

Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....

Is Jezza not the wardrobe, except it's full of skeletons (GoT version)?