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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium sees the Tory lead up 10% in a week to 19%. Labour are on course for an absolute hammering if the polls are right

New @OpiniumResearch

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    First!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    edited April 2017
    I'm guessing about fifth, like UKIP.

    But I might be third like the Jezziah's party!

    Edit - second! ''Tis an omen for Labour...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited April 2017
    Second! Third!

    Good to know that last week's 9% lead was the outlier we generally thought it was at the time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    If they are right.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited April 2017
    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited April 2017
    Sixth, like SLab ?

    The more I read about the adjustments the polling companies are making this time to adjust for the errors in the adjustments they think they might have made the last time, the more I wonder whether any of them actually have a clue?
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Is there even a mechanism to depose Corbyn once Parliament is dissolved?

    After that point, there are no longer any Labour MPs. Is that situation accounted for in the rule book?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Oh please tell me Labour are going to come third!!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    I don't know much about the process, but an American I was at uni with was able to do it successfully not so long ago.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Just rejoice at that news... :D
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
    We will see
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

    May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

    Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
    2015 : 42 : 21
    2017 : 49 : 15
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    The Alliance briefly moved ahead of Labour in the polls in 1983 at the end of the campaign, which presaged an impressive 25% in the national vote (admittedly one poll in 1981 put them on 50%).

    To suggest many more news cycles like the last few will see them do something similar if even this unfavourable pollster puts them on a 60% increase is not unrealistic.

    However, even if they poll ahead of Labour on Election Day unless Labour dip to 12% they will still be second in terms of seats unless UNS breaks down under that sort of stress.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    FPT:
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017
    Time to believe the polls.

    I've sold Lab & bought Con seats at spreadex, for a moderate stake.

    Do we have tables? What's the breakdown with C2DE's?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
    Maybe the public are herding?:)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    MyBurningEars said:

    Is there even a mechanism to depose Corbyn once Parliament is dissolved?

    After that point, there are no longer any Labour MPs. Is that situation accounted for in the rule book?

    Ha! Clever point - there are of course still MEPs.

    Perhaps you should email Tom Watson!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Blimey...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,549
    edited April 2017
    May on hearing the new poll...

    image
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    CarlottaVance said:

    No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

    May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

    Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
    2015 : 42 : 21
    2017 : 49 : 15

    That's good, but it hardly speaks poorly of Cameron and Osborne - look who May and Hammond are up against! It ain't no Miliband and Balls.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    timmo said:

    Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
    We will see

    I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    CarlottaVance said:

    No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

    May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

    Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
    2015 : 42 : 21
    2017 : 49 : 15

    I wrote this thread on short notice from Mike, whilst watching Spurs choke again.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    If Opinium have a 4% increase for the Lib Dems and this was repeated with You Gov then 15-16% could be their new polling figure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited April 2017
    Betting question team -

    I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.

    The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.

    I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.

    My calcs:

    13 = 12/1
    12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
    Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.

    Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.

    Surely can't be right? Or can it?

    Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    How much longer can Labour hold second in share of the vote?
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?
    The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

    Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know.
    You don't know.

    But know enough to call it indefensible.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    MarkSenior said:

    timmo said:

    Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
    We will see

    I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong
    Or, more likely, last one n outlier.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
    Maybe the public are herding?:)
    This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

    Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

    This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know.
    You don't know.

    But know enough to call it indefensible.
    It's called irony. It's a linguistic device, very popular I'm told. You should try it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.
    Recall the Northern Singaporean Granny who'd lived here for 30 years a couple of years being suddenly deported after two years and who didn't have any family in Singapore so stayed with her sister in Singapore?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    Bromptonaut said:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?
    The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

    Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.
    We won't be deporting anybody, of that I am sure. The Germans and the rest of the EU... I'm not so sure.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Do any bookies other than Betfair/Paddy have constituency markets up yet?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    New 'Isidewith' general election survey out, I got 73% Tory, 55% UKIP, 51% Labour, 48% DUP
    http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3104737079
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Bromptonaut said:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?
    The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

    Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.
    Empathy has been expressed, along with wanting to see the facts before reaching a conclusion, you could try doing the same before getting morally superior?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    I took part in this poll.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    Yes, you are probably right - some foreign overseas unelected and unaccountable body seem to have allowed her to bypass our rules.

    I think it'd be a good idea if we had a vote on being able to stop that and take back control.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Now that there's an election it isn't in the immediate interests of Labour to get rid of Corbyn. They need him and the wider left to fully own the defeat. of course the counter argument will be that the PLP never worked with Corbyn and so the glorious popularity of extreme left wing policy was stymied by divisions. Since 2007 the Labour Party have gone left, been defeated, gone further left, been defeated and keep deciding that voters keep electing Tories because Labour isn't sufficiently left wing. They may decide that again, against all logic and experience.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
    Maybe the public are herding?:)
    This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

    Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.
    Does the S in TSE stand for Sion? :D
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited April 2017
    felix said:

    MarkSenior said:

    timmo said:

    Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
    We will see

    I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong
    Or, more likely, last one n outlier.
    Nope because that would mean all previous recent Opinium polls were outliers
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Topping, I believe they're correct.

    You get £5 back (stake) but also lose £5 stake because an each way bet is effectively two bets: £5 to win (this lost) and £5 to be placed (this won).
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Jezza is Ed squared, with extra baggage.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Bromptonaut said:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?
    The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

    Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.
    Given that we've apparently been fully sovereign all along there was no guarantee of that before either....
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I took part in this poll.

    Who did you say you were voting for?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    No doubt for reasons of space TSE left this bit out:

    May and chancellor Philip Hammond are now trusted by more voters (49%) to run the nation’s finances well than those who trusted David Cameron and George Osborne to do so ahead of the 2015 election (42%). Trust in Corbyn and shadow chancellor John McDonnell to run the economy well is at 15% lower than it was for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls ahead of the 2015 election (21%).

    Running the economy - Tory vs Labour
    2015 : 42 : 21
    2017 : 49 : 15

    I wrote this thread on short notice from Mike, whilst watching Spurs choke again.
    It's also a completely unfair comparator. Ed &Ed were like Keynes and Hayek compared to these 2.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    MarkSenior said:

    felix said:

    MarkSenior said:

    timmo said:

    Not for the first time Mr Senior doesnt want to believe what he is being told.
    We will see

    I have not said I disbelieve the other polls , I just disbelieve that this Opinium poll and the movements from the last one are genuine . Clearly if this poll and the previous Opinium poll are correct then all the other pollsters last polls were wrong
    Or, more likely, last one n outlier.
    Nope because that would been all previous recent Opinium polls were outliers
    Looking at the wiki table, the polls on 14-17 of Mar and 14-16 of Feb don't look like outliers.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    LOL
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    ydoethur said:

    The Alliance briefly moved ahead of Labour in the polls in 1983 at the end of the campaign, which presaged an impressive 25% in the national vote (admittedly one poll in 1981 put them on 50%).

    To suggest many more news cycles like the last few will see them do something similar if even this unfavourable pollster puts them on a 60% increase is not unrealistic.

    However, even if they poll ahead of Labour on Election Day unless Labour dip to 12% they will still be second in terms of seats unless UNS breaks down under that sort of stress.

    On a GB basis the Alliance polled over 26% in 1983.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.
    These things usually are, and it will most likely get resolved in due course.

    It also doesn't help his case that the guy's Twitter feed reads like he's Gina Miller's best mate. A cynic might say that he is trying to push an agenda.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    SimonStClare said:

    If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

    The waters are due to break soon surely...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    GeoffM said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I took part in this poll.

    Who did you say you were voting for?
    DK
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    FPT:
    CarlottaVance said:

    On almost every count, May wins. Some 49% of all voters now approve of the way she is running the country, against just 18% who express approval for Corbyn’s leadership.

    That 18% is probably a reasonable indication of Corbyn-Labour's floor at present. Things could get much worse than the current c26% polling.... and the tipping point may come when the Hamas/IRA/Soviet-loving attacks come.

    We're going to need more popcorn. Much more popcorn.

    (de-lurking after a number of year's absence from the site. I was here in the very early days but the subsequent site refreshes seem to have archived/deleted thousands of inane posts. Probably a Good Thing.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Morris_Dancer said:

    PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

    This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    Love it.

    I'm with Lake Trasimene to Carrhae at the moment, but 7 weeks of this and we're definitely looking at Cannae territory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    kle4 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    And more than likely she'll be able to continue to live here after Brexit. So what's the problem?
    The problem is there's no guarantee of that and the family life she's led for a quarter of a century may be destroyed. I'm surprised you can't see that.

    Perhaps like many in this place you need a course of empathy injections.
    Empathy has been expressed, along with wanting to see the facts before reaching a conclusion, you could try doing the same before getting morally superior?
    Don't hold your breath....
  • DougieDougie Posts: 57
    Any idea of the time that the Sunday Post Scottish poll is due to be released?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    FPT:

    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    Oh, I don't know. Maybe she was legally allowed to be here under some kind of supra-national citizenship that meant she didn't need to bother with all that bureaucracy and could just get on with a purposeful life free from the overweening intrusion of the state?
    No doubt the story is more complicated than the 140 character tweet implies.
    These things usually are, and it will most likely get resolved in due course.

    It also doesn't help his case that the guy's Twitter feed reads like he's Gina Miller's best mate. A cynic might say that he is trying to push an agenda.
    I'm shocked... :o
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    Morris_Dancer said:

    PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

    This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    Con gain Bolsover:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Allia
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    SimonStClare said:

    If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

    Because Trotskyist terrorist loving Jezza is really, really unelectable perhaps?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
    Maybe the public are herding?:)
    This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

    Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.
    It may yet prove prescient - its early days and voter apathy - confident of Corbyn being blocked - may yet reduce the Tory lead
  • paulbarkerpaulbarker Posts: 77
    Right now I am "expecting" the 1st Poll to show The Libdems in 2nd place to arrive around mid May, but things seem to be accelerating all the time. I dont think we can put a floor on how low Labour can go. What happens if lots of people start to beleive Labour will come 3rd ? Will we see defections ?
    On the Corbyn thing, there is no mechanism for sacking The Leader except in the late Summer/Autumn. That may sound batty to you but there you go. Any attempt at another Coup by MPs would amount to a split.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Morris_Dancer said:

    PBers may recall I made a list of Roman emperors to compare Cameron to based on his election result in 2015 (before it was known, of course). He ended up, due to shock majority, as Trajan, I think.

    This time, I've put together a list of Roman battlefield batterings for Labour. In order of most terrible to least, preceded by seat changes:

    -70 Cannae
    -60 Arausio
    -50 Teutoberg Forest
    -40 Carrhae
    -30 Lake Trasimene

    If it's not too bad:
    -20 Asculum
    -10 Heraclea

    And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
    +10 Zela
    +20 Tigranocerta
    +30 Zama

    Mr Dancer at the moment we are looking at one of the top three on your list. I think we can largely ignore thoughts of net Labour gains.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    FPT
    Sandpit said:

    » show previous quotes
    Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?

    English one today Sandpit. Be a miracle if I can repeat it next year.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    brokenwheel said:

    SimonStClare said:

    If the poll ratings for the blue team are only due to a honeymoon period, why after nine months do they just keep getting bigger?

    The waters are due to break soon surely...
    Arf - worthy of a ba dum tish...!
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/election-2017-could-moray-be-the-snp-s-portillo-moment-1-4426212
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    RobD said:

    Just rejoice at that news... :D

    Slightly against the narrative I just saw on Sky news to be fair
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

    *checks store room for popcorn*

    image

    Enough?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Picking over my outstanding bets, I've got a tenner on "Yougov to show Labour leading by 2018" at 5/1. Though I'd rather have the tenner back, at least the snap election raises the prospect of a new Labour leader before then who only needs a short honeymoon period for me to win...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

    *checks store room for popcorn*

    image

    Enough?
    No where near enough
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Welcome back, Mr. Wiggs.

    Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    Sandpit said:

    » show previous quotes
    Well done with the gee-gees, we'll all be looking for tips next year now - or do we just bet on the Scottish horse?

    English one today Sandpit. Be a miracle if I can repeat it next year.

    Ah, so a Scottish horse won the English race, and an English horse won the Scottish race. Your prize should be to write a guest piece next April on predicting the most unpredictable races of the season!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    ToryJim said:

    Now that there's an election it isn't in the immediate interests of Labour to get rid of Corbyn. They need him and the wider left to fully own the defeat. of course the counter argument will be that the PLP never worked with Corbyn and so the glorious popularity of extreme left wing policy was stymied by divisions. Since 2007 the Labour Party have gone left, been defeated, gone further left, been defeated and keep deciding that voters keep electing Tories because Labour isn't sufficiently left wing. They may decide that again, against all logic and experience.

    Is that really what happened? It is a nice simple narrative, and it is always fun to characterise a group you aren't a member of as idiots. But maybe the story is more complicated.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

    https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    calum said:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/election-2017-could-moray-be-the-snp-s-portillo-moment-1-4426212

    Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,319
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

    https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

    That could produce some odd results.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

    *checks store room for popcorn*

    image

    Enough?
    For the first couple of weeks' skirmishing perhaps, but once the short campaign starts I think you'll need more than that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
    Maybe the public are herding?:)
    This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

    Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.
    Give it a week or two, maybe it'll look prescient.
    HYUFD said:

    New 'Isidewith' general election survey out, I got 73% Tory, 55% UKIP, 51% Labour, 48% DUP
    http://uk.isidewith.com/results/3104737079

    Bit out of date.

    But I've become a bit more Conservative - one time I did one of these and had 4 parties within 5 percent

    Con 64
    LD 55
    Lab 54
    UKIP 49

    Plaid Cymru 34 (but Political Compass says that's where I belong!)
    BNP (Still showing a picture of Nick Griffin) 31
    Demoratic Unionist 30

    I like it though since it suggests which party you might be closest too on certain issues (for Crime I'm closer to Greens and LDs it says, but Healthcare closer to UKIP)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

    *checks store room for popcorn*

    image

    Enough?
    No where near enough
    Surely there is some sort of EU popcorn mountain that we have a share in?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Welcome back, Mr. Wiggs.

    Mr. Richard, hmm. Perhaps -80 could be considered Battle of the Allia? (Got to admit, I'm a bit weaker on the earlier stuff).

    How about the Sack of Rome or Fall of Constantnople?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,762
    edited April 2017
    Recidivist said:

    ToryJim said:

    Now that there's an election it isn't in the immediate interests of Labour to get rid of Corbyn. They need him and the wider left to fully own the defeat. of course the counter argument will be that the PLP never worked with Corbyn and so the glorious popularity of extreme left wing policy was stymied by divisions. Since 2007 the Labour Party have gone left, been defeated, gone further left, been defeated and keep deciding that voters keep electing Tories because Labour isn't sufficiently left wing. They may decide that again, against all logic and experience.

    Is that really what happened? It is a nice simple narrative, and it is always fun to characterise a group you aren't a member of as idiots. But maybe the story is more complicated.
    Former PBer Nick Cohen reckons Jezz might stay on even if Labour suffers the most catastrophic defeat in British political history:

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/left-in-the-shadows/
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    surely Mr Dancer, you should have included "meeting the same fate as the 9th Legion". I can just imagine the scene as Ian Murray stumbles back over Hadrians Wall through the mist on the morning of 9th June
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

    https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

    :o:D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,730
    CarlottaVance said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    MarkSenior said:

    J don't want to sound cynical but have not Opinium just looked at other pollsters and decided they had better move theirs more into line but thought they would look a bit better if they still kept them at the extreme ends of the other pollsters figures .

    It is interesting that there was a sudden pre=announcement jump from the other pollsters, and now Opinium has had a post announcement jump.
    tlg86 said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Indefensible.

    https://twitter.com/stephenemoss/status/855703988372733959

    Do you think they've changed the rules on this since last June? I do wonder why someone who's lived here for 25 years hasn't applied for British citizenship - did they not want to vote in our elections?
    It's not a requirement that people make such a firm choice. The facts will be very interesting, as it seems a strange decision, but headlines/initial reports on these things so often turn out to be more complicated.
    Opinium don't herd, they didn't do so doing the EU Referendum, where they accurately predicted a Leave victory.
    Maybe the public are herding?:)
    This poll is going to make my morning thread look a bit daft.

    Précis - Very shortly there will be a general election in which the Tories will barely increase their majority.
    It may yet prove prescient - its early days and voter apathy - confident of Corbyn being blocked - may yet reduce the Tory lead
    Whatever happened to Brownian Blitzkreig?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

    https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

    Wow. Add up the Unionists and SNP + Green and you get roughly 55:45.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Scottish sub-sample KLAXON !!

    https://twitter.com/scotelects/status/855824053449486336

    Since 2015 general election SNP -7%, Tories + 17%, Labour -10%, LDs (unchanged). Tories would win 10 seats from the SNP including Moray where they would oust SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson (albeit it is a subsample), LDs would take 2 SNP seats
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,719
    TOPPING said:

    Betting question team -

    I put £5 e/w 1/5th the odds on a horse on the Betfair Exchange odds of Decimal 13.

    The horse was placed. They paid out £7 profit plus returned my stake.

    I think they should have paid out £12 profit plus returned my stake.

    My calcs:

    13 = 12/1
    12/1 x 1/5th the odds = 2.4
    Therefore they should have paid me (2.4 x £5) + £5 = £17.

    Instead they paid me ([2.4-1] x £5) +£5 = £12.

    Surely can't be right? Or can it?

    Edit: if wrong, has Betfair been systematically doing this since they started offering e/w betting?

    Topping for me on any normal betting you would get 12/5 a place and so return of £17.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    I don't know whether Opinium has changed its methodology, but their Lib Dem ratings in 2015 were in line with the election result. The final poll put the Lib Dems at 8%, exactly right.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    glw said:

    Floater said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

    *checks store room for popcorn*

    image

    Enough?
    No where near enough
    Surely there is some sort of EU popcorn mountain that we have a share in?
    No, no, no we have a legal obligation to pay for all the popcorn required by the EU forever. Williamglen had a quote from someone really obscure that proved it just the other day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    DavidL said:

    calum said:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/election-2017-could-moray-be-the-snp-s-portillo-moment-1-4426212

    Moray is well beyond the Scottish Tories, at least this time. In the longer run as the SNP get more comfortable in SLAB's old central belt, left wing and centralising slippers the North East will turn their back on them but not yet. Reduced majority but comfortable.
    It's a scalp too far - also voters tend to like having a prominent MP represent them, and with all due respect to the Tory candidate, he'll not be in that position for a while....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,554
    edited April 2017
    RobinWiggs said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/maomentum_/status/855829762157281281

    The next seven weeks are going to be awesome viewing!

    *checks store room for popcorn*

    image

    Enough?
    For the first couple of weeks' skirmishing perhaps, but once the short campaign starts I think you'll need more than that.
    Mrs Sandpit just reminded me that she likes popcorn too, even though she doesn't really understand too much about British politics.

    Maybe I'd better order a couple of tons more, just to be on the safe side.

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Bulk-Grains-Organic-White-Popcorn/dp/B001KWGZWE/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mrs B, but no-one quite knows the fate of the Ninth Legion...

    Mr. F, that's the death of Labour either as a party or the main party of opposition.

    Mr. G, hmm. You might be right.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Do we have a schedule for the French first round results?
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Idle thoughts - comparing this election with the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

    Mrs May obviously the witch
    Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior

    Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mrs B, but no-one quite knows the fate of the Ninth Legion...

    except they disappeared.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    MrsB said:

    Idle thoughts - comparing this election with the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe.

    Mrs May obviously the witch
    Tim Farron as Peter - thought of as just a kid to start with but becomes a mighty warrior

    Problem is Jezza. He would be Aslan I suppose. I can see him going willingly to the table to be sacrificed. Problem is, can't see him coming to life again afterwards.....

    Is Jezza not the wardrobe, except it's full of skeletons (GoT version)?
This discussion has been closed.