Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
I don't like the Tories one bit, but I have to admit that they were right to oppose Scottish devolution in 1997.
It could never work for the benefit of all of the country unless it was done everywhere. Devolution needed to happen to all nations and regions not just scotland, wales, london and NI. it was always a grievance machine for both the devolved and non-devolved parts of the country. it needed to be a federal system with a cross funding system which seems fair to all. rather than what actually happened.
+++ Breaking: TSE placed on 24/7 monitoring as British people find May a better PM than Cameron +++
Calm down.
Dave's the only PM to quit whilst leading in the polls.
Harold Wilson managed that too in Spring 1976.
Yes, but Wilson was in early-stage Alzheimers (see also Reagan in term 2).
What would that have to do with anything? In fact it was not true from what I have been told. He went on to write memoirs , led a Commission looking into the City and remained an MP until 1983.Signs of Alzheimers only became apparent in the mid-1980s.
Tories are on 50% in Wales on Comres subsample of 66
Given the astonishing Scottish and Welsh subsamples for the Tories in this poll, their Labour figure for England must be even more implausibly high than 25% suggests.
. Are we at the point now where we are overstating the Tories and understating Labour
Has to be, simply has to be.
Doesn't it?
I hate to think of the consequences for our democracy if the Tories are on 50% in the opinion polls and are STILL being UNDERESTIMATED!
you surely don't believe that democracy as a process is under threat?
I remember the labour government of 1997-2003 when there was no opposition and a government which could do what it wanted. not good for anyone. this would be the same thing
I wonder how the Scottish Labour supporting papers are going to react to this. For their own futures it's time to shit or get of the pot. They back the union and tory rule for a decade or more or, swing to independence.
But what if the unionist vote total outperforms the SNP
Okay, so if the Yougov poll does not have Con above 50% then either LD has crossed over with Lab (very unlikely with Con being sub-50). Or, Slab is sub 5% with Cons running the Tories close.
Tories are on 50% in Wales on Comres subsample of 66
Given the astonishing Scottish and Welsh subsamples for the Tories in this poll, their Labour figure for England must be even more implausibly high than 25% suggests.
The Lib Dems will be disappointed. I mean, 11% is likely to give them some gains but the optimistic forecasts of 20+ gains need more votes nationally...
If the Conservatives get 50%, the Lib Dems are unlikely to make more than one or two net gains.
This is a good point. If Con is getting 50%, Libs will not gain much. Your article yesterday about Lib limits seems apposite.
Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
I don't like the Tories one bit, but I have to admit that they were right to oppose Scottish devolution in 1997.
It could never work for the benefit of all of the country unless it was done everywhere. Devolution needed to happen to all nations and regions not just scotland, wales, london and NI. it was always a grievance machine for both the devolved and non-devolved parts of the country. it needed to be a federal system with a cross funding system which seems fair to all. rather than what actually happened.
They did plan to have regional assemblies throughout England, but after London the next area to have a referendum for one was the North-East, they rejected it and then the idea was dropped.
Evening to everyone. Just a few personal thoughts re political bets for the election.
1. Scotland. I think Malcolm said he would gladly bet the SNP would not get below 50 seats. I would be happy to take that bet. Two things that the SNP benefited from in 2015, apart from a massive upswing in support, was (1) the fragmentation of the Unionist vote and (2) they were far more passionate. I suspect this time that there will be a strong element of consolidation amongst the Unionist vote even given the "I will never vote Tory" faction. I am therefore looking at constituencies where the SNP polled sub-50%. One other (possible) scenario is the election are used as a "protest" vote against the SNP Holyrood administration.
2. Labour seats. On an individual constituency basis, I think a good way to think about the Labour chances of keeping a seat is to look at the Muslim population in the seat (I was going to write last week that I thought Manchester Gorton would be more like the Oldham West result because of this very factor and the LD chances were overdone). Basically, the higher the Muslim population, the more chance Labour has of holding. So, for example, I could imagine higher swings to the Conservatives in some of the Wigan area seats than in seats in Rochdale and Bolton.
3. University seats. Bear in mind that, for many universities, June 8th is right when students are either sitting their exams or are getting ready to do their exams or maybe have even finished and therefore have left their accommodation. That may be a coincidence but those relying on the student vote to drive certain seats to the LD and Labour (e.g. Bath) might have a harder time than they thought.
Okay, so if the Yougov poll does not have Con above 50% then either LD has crossed over with Lab (very unlikely with Con being sub-50). Or, Slab is sub 5% with Cons running the Tories close.
Exactly. And if you think about it, if it was 1 it would mean that the party was unimportant. If it was zero then the leader wouldn't matter. As it is both matter, which is sort of common sense.
Labour collapse and con picking up votes from the SNP
I don't like the Tories one bit, but I have to admit that they were right to oppose Scottish devolution in 1997.
It could never work for the benefit of all of the country unless it was done everywhere. Devolution needed to happen to all nations and regions not just scotland, wales, london and NI. it was always a grievance machine for both the devolved and non-devolved parts of the country. it needed to be a federal system with a cross funding system which seems fair to all. rather than what actually happened.
They did plan to have regional assemblies throughout England, but after London the next area to have a referendum for one was the North-East, they rejected it and then the idea was dropped.
Looks like we have found Labour's firewall...25%....Tories need to get those IRA posters if they want to get that down closer to 20%.
The election campaign has barely started, I would be shocked if between now and the GE not one person that currently supports them will switch to some other party. I reckon that the firewall is down around 15%.
I had the ComRes embargoed email for an hour, but they stuck in my spam folder.
Google's excellent spam filtering probably detected an implausible Tory lead and decided to bin it automatically in case you were to publicise such a clearly fabricated poll.
ComRes know I would never violate an embargo.
Mutters something about I had an hour to make massive profit with this embargo*
*Before my fan gets overexcited, I never bet on embargoed polls until they are formally released.
Credit to you But you MUST be absolutely gagging to spill the beans sometimes !!!
Hmm - even the most optimistic have been struggling to see more than about 5 prospective Tory gains in Scotland, what ones could possibly be vulnerable?
Comments
only the Iraq war produced an opposition
CON 50
LAB 25
LD 11
UKIP 7
http://bit.ly/2pQeJzD
Only down side, I was warned about, when some people realise I'm not white, and am a Muslim, my twitter feed is going to be fun.
Apparently some people don't like Muslims and non white people.
10% Scotland
24% Wales
1. Scotland. I think Malcolm said he would gladly bet the SNP would not get below 50 seats. I would be happy to take that bet. Two things that the SNP benefited from in 2015, apart from a massive upswing in support, was (1) the fragmentation of the Unionist vote and (2) they were far more passionate. I suspect this time that there will be a strong element of consolidation amongst the Unionist vote even given the "I will never vote Tory" faction. I am therefore looking at constituencies where the SNP polled sub-50%. One other (possible) scenario is the election are used as a "protest" vote against the SNP Holyrood administration.
2. Labour seats. On an individual constituency basis, I think a good way to think about the Labour chances of keeping a seat is to look at the Muslim population in the seat (I was going to write last week that I thought Manchester Gorton would be more like the Oldham West result because of this very factor and the LD chances were overdone). Basically, the higher the Muslim population, the more chance Labour has of holding. So, for example, I could imagine higher swings to the Conservatives in some of the Wigan area seats than in seats in Rochdale and Bolton.
3. University seats. Bear in mind that, for many universities, June 8th is right when students are either sitting their exams or are getting ready to do their exams or maybe have even finished and therefore have left their accommodation. That may be a coincidence but those relying on the student vote to drive certain seats to the LD and Labour (e.g. Bath) might have a harder time than they thought.
You are SeanT and I claim my €5.
Mori, 21-24 March 1997 (6-7 wks to election)
LAB 50
CON 29
LD 14
REFERENDUM 3
Corbyn's Labour are 4pts behind John Major's Tories
Con 48% (-)
Lab 25% (+1)
LD 12% (-)
Ukip 5% (-2)"
Labour are in really deep shit
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/exclusive-poll-voters-turning-away-labour-towards-tories-five/
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855883084734099462
The ensuing battle was a major defeat for the Bulgarians. Bulgarian soldiers were captured and reputedly blinded by order of Basil II,
But you MUST be absolutely gagging to spill the beans sometimes !!!
THIS IS THE JESUS FUCKING CHRIST MOMENT
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855883991324479488
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855883991324479488
LOL - what did Corbyn fans say he would do in Scotland?
12 looks high for the Tories, though. 5-7 more realistic.
Also:
"Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 40m40 minutes ago
Ok, as a democrat, this is where it gets scary:
British public
Con 50%
Lab 25%
But among over-65s -the highest turnout group
Con 64%
Lab 15%"
goo.gl/7cTbAf
I just had £10 on the Tories at 16/1 in Angus.