politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence
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Aww,TCPoliticalBetting said:
Well done Plato for being one of the very few to challenge the conventional "experts" on PB, in the face of unwise abuse from people who should know better.PlatoSaid said:Trump 1m ahead on popular vote so far
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NV called for Clinton
She's on 215 ECVs now.
Trump on 2440 -
Clinton needs to somehow win Arizona.0
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Oh, she could share her view: as far as I'm aware she didn't get any bans.IanB2 said:
I didn't buy Plato's analysis, but I did defend her right to share the views with us. We don't do ourselves any favours trying to exclude any point of view, except for the libellous or offensive.JosiasJessop said:
She also owes many apologies ...Big_G_NorthWales said:
I haven't followed the election much until now but the comments I have seen to Plato by some on this forum were unacceptable and she is owed many apologies in my opinionTCPoliticalBetting said:
Well done Plato for being one of the very few to challenge the conventional "experts" on PB, in the face of unwise abuse from people who should know better.PlatoSaid said:Trump 1m ahead on popular vote so far
The abuse wasn't just one-way traffic.0 -
BBC touchscreen: Emily Maitlis wish fulfilment.0
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Heard that the black and Hispanic votes both broke strongly for Clinton.tlg86 said:
My dad and I were talking about that the other day. I definitely think celebrity endorsement is a bad thing here, but I wasn't sure about the US. Jay Z and Beyonce are very popular, but do they really make a positive difference with swing voters?numbertwelve said:CNN suggested just now, and I agree, that the unrelenting focus on celebrity endorsement may have been a big mistake in the closing days. How does that speak to people in the rust belt?
This is textbook on how to throw away an election. The Edstone and the Sheffield rally have nothing on this.
But not as strongly as for Obama.
It wasn't entirely about white people.0 -
Wikileaks
Clinton's Pied Piper Strategy (use media contacts to promote Trump) has backfired spectacularly. PDF of our leak: https://t.co/DAmWNq9K0f https://t.co/R49V3TfMXC0 -
That doesn't make a difference. No one can name a single popular Clinton policy (I mean the average person can't). They can name trump ones.tlg86 said:
My dad and I were talking about that the other day. I definitely think celebrity endorsement is a bad thing here, but I wasn't sure about the US. Jay Z and Beyonce are very popular, but do they really make a positive difference with swing voters?numbertwelve said:CNN suggested just now, and I agree, that the unrelenting focus on celebrity endorsement may have been a big mistake in the closing days. How does that speak to people in the rust belt?
This is textbook on how to throw away an election. The Edstone and the Sheffield rally have nothing on this.0 -
Unlike Brexit, Trump becoming President is deliverable. How he performs is up to him.IanB2 said:
Just like Brexit, it's the potential disillusion that is so dangerous.AndyJS said:Trump isn't going to be able to stop China overtaking the US as the world's number one economy. His supporters are going to be a bit disappointed by that.
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Beeb reporting Trump also currently about a million in the lead on popular vote.0
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1.2 million, but a lot of D CA votes to come in.Black_Rook said:Beeb reporting Trump also currently about a million in the lead on popular vote.
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I meant to but I'm still somewhat in shock.brokenwheel said:
Only one iirc.JosiasJessop said:
A good, insightful comment. How many responses did it get?brokenwheel said:Just sayin';
brokenwheel said:
I do not hold that the Hispanic vote will be quite as crucial as is being made out. Firstly it would only make a big difference on my map to Arizona; Based on early voting a good chunk of the increase in Hispanics is only making up for the underperformance in AAs. As much is made of Hispanic's hatred of Trump, even the most pessimistic numbers for him are better than his numbers with blacks. Only Arizona is a close state without the need to offset the AA vote (because the AA vote isn't as big anyway).DavidL said:
Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
My opinion is the clincher will be what the white vote does, particularly white middle-income men, who are more likely to vote on election day.
I think this piece from Cohn is important.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html?_r=2
Now look at the figures for example for those who haven't already voted but intend to in North Carolina,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/08/upshot/trump-and-clinton-tied-in-final-upshot-poll-of-north-carolina.html0 -
The question is how much Wikileaks has affected this election: if we believe your spam, quite a bit.PlatoSaid said:Wikileaks
Clinton's Pied Piper Strategy (use media contacts to promote Trump) has backfired spectacularly. PDF of our leak: https://t.co/DAmWNq9K0f https://t.co/R49V3TfMXC
Therefore it is also the question how much Russia has bought the election ...0 -
Talking of RC, here's his spreadsheet which I think was predicting a Clinton win based on the polls:Pulpstar said:For any Labourites getting their hopes up, @RodCrosby has written off Corbyn already.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit0 -
Trump will be in court on the 28th of November, that's going to be something0
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Hillary Clinton has taken the lead in New Hampshire and Maine.0
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Yes, Kay Burley is an utter disgrace.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Also in shock are the BBC and SKY.PlatoSaid said:ABC 24
'It really is like covering a wake' @zdaniel describe the mood at the #Clinton headquarters in Newyork #usavotes https://t.co/qTKiJfWRKG0 -
OK, I have t go to bed otherwise ill hurl. I have to be up at 8:30. Have fun, guys. If I wake up and Clinton has won Arizona and Alaska and is POTUS it will...be just another thing in this year of crazy. Nighty-night0
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CNN calls Nevada even though not certain per NYT.0
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Miss PlatoPlatoSaid said:Wikileaks
Clinton's Pied Piper Strategy (use media contacts to promote Trump) has backfired spectacularly. PDF of our leak: https://t.co/DAmWNq9K0f https://t.co/R49V3TfMXC
we are not worthy ! we are not worthy !
just seen results ROFLMAO
experts who needs then :-)
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It's entirely possible once the west coast results come in that Trump could win the EC and become POTUS yet Clinton could win the popular vote.Black_Rook said:Beeb reporting Trump also currently about a million in the lead on popular vote.
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Trump just pulled ahead in PA, now at 23k up (from a few k), with 93% in0
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PA for Clinton. Just enough blue counties to come in.0
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I'm calling Pennsylvania for Trump.0
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Thought: with Clinton removed from the equation and given Trump's attitude towards collective defence and Putin, Theresa May's negotiating hand with the EU just strengthened, perhaps greatly.
As run down as they are, the UK's defensive capabilities are still the strongest of any nation in the EU. And the security position just became paramount.0 -
NY Times puts it as 85% probability for Trump in PA.0
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I think Trump has just won PA.0
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Clinton should demand a full recount in Florida. See what can be found in Miami.0
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Sky forecasting possibility of a draw!0
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May should make a deal with Trump to join a reformed NAFTA.Black_Rook said:Thought: with Clinton removed from the equation and given Trump's attitude towards collective defence and Putin, Theresa May's negotiating hand with the EU just strengthened, perhaps greatly.
As run down as they are, the UK's defensive capabilities are still the strongest of any nation in the EU. And the security position just became paramount.
Farage has now become the most valuable person in US-UK relations right now.0 -
Blah. Still can't sleep. One person who I've got congratulate is @SouthamObserver who has predicted the GE, Brexit, and this US Disaster right.
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"Ground game"0
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So the electorate will ignore all facts etc if they are mad enough with the elite. Interesting.0
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Now up to 26k lead at 93% reported.0
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Remember, the real ground game is in our hearts.Pulpstar said:"Ground game"
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You have to say, if Stein didn't stand I think Clinton would be POTUS.0
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now 31k at 94%0
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now 34k at 95%0
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If your facts are that your income has fallen through the floor, there are no good jobs left for you, your town is decaying and you see no hope for the future, then rolling the dice may not seem quite so crazy.nunu said:So the electorate will ignore all facts etc if they are mad enough with the elite. Interesting.
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Don't agree at all. Entirely possible if Stein doesn't stand her votes go Johnson or A.Nother or stay at home. It's not as if the Green's voters were unaware they were wasting their votes when they chose to do so.MaxPB said:You have to say, if Stein didn't stand I think Clinton would be POTUS.
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43m
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gonna need some post-election analysis but the exits (yes I know) have Clinton doing worse among blacks/Hispanics than Obama did.0 -
Has Obama's legacy died tonight0
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Trump now ahead by over 30k in PA. Trump has it. The full FOP!0
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Indeed. (*) Although I don't think he'll be happy about it ...The_Apocalypse said:Blah. Still can't sleep. One person who I've got congratulate is @SouthamObserver who has predicted the GE, Brexit, and this US Disaster right.
(*) Sorry!0 -
I slept till 3.47, woke up and had a guardian notification "stock markets plunge around the world..." and haven't been able to sleep since!The_Apocalypse said:Blah. Still can't sleep. One person who I've got congratulate is @SouthamObserver who has predicted the GE, Brexit, and this US Disaster right.
It's going to get worse from here. I think this campaign has been over for a long time. Trump was always winning. Just like Brexit.
Le Pen in France (She will mop up lots of the socialist vote in round 2, they won't go to Juppé), and the AfD in Germany (going to show huge increase, probably not far off the main two parties who will both suffer horribly) are the ones to watch next.0 -
So does anything go now in news and politics? We can make anything thing up and enough people will lap it up?0
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His only legacy will be that of his election as a black man.Big_G_NorthWales said:Has Obama's legacy died tonight
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Brought to life.Big_G_NorthWales said:Has Obama's legacy died tonight
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After what 13 hours Harry Enten discovered the national exit polls.nunu said:
43m
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gonna need some post-election analysis but the exits (yes I know) have Clinton doing worse among blacks/Hispanics than Obama did.0 -
it started with Blair and Mandelsonnunu said:So does anything go now in news and politics? We can make anything thing up and enough people will lap it up?
this is where the left has shot itself in the foot people just wont say what they think if their opinions get ignored and vilified
polling is just impossible0 -
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Obama's legacy was always going to be weak. He won in 2008 on a platform of 'hope' and 'change' that he was never going to be able to deliver on, because they are essentially meaningless.Big_G_NorthWales said:Has Obama's legacy died tonight
So yes: if he had actually delivered 'hope' and 'change' then tonight's result would have been very different.
Sadly, whilst Trump will definitely deliver 'change', there isn't much 'hope' of it being positive.0 -
PA is mighty close but Trump in front by 35k votes.0
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Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.0
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OK - thanks.RobD said:
But line bar on their summary page suggests different!
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president0 -
I got on at 11 on BF, stupidly laid off at 7, rebacked at 6.5 though, so not too much lost in the end!Dixie said:0 -
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Blair studied the Clintons closely. Her defeat tonight is symbolic of the end of an era in Western politics.Alanbrooke said:
it started with Blair and Mandelsonnunu said:So does anything go now in news and politics? We can make anything thing up and enough people will lap it up?
this is where the left has shot itself in the foot people just wont say what they think if their opinions get ignored and vilified
polling is just impossible0 -
Oh I see that! Interesting. I am not sure which is correct then. CNN did call NV for Clinton though, so looks like she'll pick up those votes.MikeL said:
OK - thanks.RobD said:
But line bar on their summary page suggests different!
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president0 -
I haven't seen any third party figures yet, what are the numbers like for them, have they over performed?Black_Rook said:Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
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Is the end for political polling? Discuss.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.0 -
With a white mother who brought him up.Sandpit said:
His only legacy will be that of his election as a black man.Big_G_NorthWales said:Has Obama's legacy died tonight
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Yes. One thing I think we can predict with confidence is that Trump and the Republican Congress will agree to set fire to Obamacare on day one.Big_G_NorthWales said:Has Obama's legacy died tonight
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Clinton trumped.
Time to catch up on sleep. Enjoyed the posts.0 -
Looking forward to reading Nate Silver's post mortem on what went wrong with the polls.0
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I haven't seen a state where Stein's percentage would make a difference. When she has done better than 1% Hillary has won. Not looked at the Johnson yet.Black_Rook said:Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
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Hope tomorrow's thread includes the word schlonged.0
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Trump now with an almost 1% lead in PA with just 5% left.0
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Once again the financial markets call it wrong0
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Betting markets and polls (and Jack's ARSE!).Alanbrooke said:Once again the financial markets call it wrong
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Ladbrokes Firewall WINNER ! 
