Well done Plato for being one of the very few to challenge the conventional "experts" on PB, in the face of unwise abuse from people who should know better.
Well done Plato for being one of the very few to challenge the conventional "experts" on PB, in the face of unwise abuse from people who should know better.
I haven't followed the election much until now but the comments I have seen to Plato by some on this forum were unacceptable and she is owed many apologies in my opinion
She also owes many apologies ...
I didn't buy Plato's analysis, but I did defend her right to share the views with us. We don't do ourselves any favours trying to exclude any point of view, except for the libellous or offensive.
Oh, she could share her view: as far as I'm aware she didn't get any bans.
CNN suggested just now, and I agree, that the unrelenting focus on celebrity endorsement may have been a big mistake in the closing days. How does that speak to people in the rust belt?
This is textbook on how to throw away an election. The Edstone and the Sheffield rally have nothing on this.
My dad and I were talking about that the other day. I definitely think celebrity endorsement is a bad thing here, but I wasn't sure about the US. Jay Z and Beyonce are very popular, but do they really make a positive difference with swing voters?
Heard that the black and Hispanic votes both broke strongly for Clinton.
CNN suggested just now, and I agree, that the unrelenting focus on celebrity endorsement may have been a big mistake in the closing days. How does that speak to people in the rust belt?
This is textbook on how to throw away an election. The Edstone and the Sheffield rally have nothing on this.
My dad and I were talking about that the other day. I definitely think celebrity endorsement is a bad thing here, but I wasn't sure about the US. Jay Z and Beyonce are very popular, but do they really make a positive difference with swing voters?
That doesn't make a difference. No one can name a single popular Clinton policy (I mean the average person can't). They can name trump ones.
Trump isn't going to be able to stop China overtaking the US as the world's number one economy. His supporters are going to be a bit disappointed by that.
Just like Brexit, it's the potential disillusion that is so dangerous.
Unlike Brexit, Trump becoming President is deliverable. How he performs is up to him.
Your low turnout map is mine exactly but I do not think it is dependent upon low turnout. It is much more dependent on the surge in Hispanic voters that we have seen in some of the early voting coming through on the day. It is this that I think is going to swing NC , FL and AZ. The Hispanics will be the black vote of this election, not because they love Hillary (who does?) but because they hate Trump and he has gone out of his way to really piss them off.
I do not hold that the Hispanic vote will be quite as crucial as is being made out. Firstly it would only make a big difference on my map to Arizona; Based on early voting a good chunk of the increase in Hispanics is only making up for the underperformance in AAs. As much is made of Hispanic's hatred of Trump, even the most pessimistic numbers for him are better than his numbers with blacks. Only Arizona is a close state without the need to offset the AA vote (because the AA vote isn't as big anyway).
My opinion is the clincher will be what the white vote does, particularly white middle-income men, who are more likely to vote on election day.
OK, I have t go to bed otherwise ill hurl. I have to be up at 8:30. Have fun, guys. If I wake up and Clinton has won Arizona and Alaska and is POTUS it will...be just another thing in this year of crazy. Nighty-night
OK, I have t go to bed otherwise ill hurl. I have to be up at 8:30. Have fun, guys. If I wake up and Clinton has won Arizona and Alaska and is POTUS it will...be just another thing in this year of crazy. Nighty-night
Thought: with Clinton removed from the equation and given Trump's attitude towards collective defence and Putin, Theresa May's negotiating hand with the EU just strengthened, perhaps greatly.
As run down as they are, the UK's defensive capabilities are still the strongest of any nation in the EU. And the security position just became paramount.
Thought: with Clinton removed from the equation and given Trump's attitude towards collective defence and Putin, Theresa May's negotiating hand with the EU just strengthened, perhaps greatly.
As run down as they are, the UK's defensive capabilities are still the strongest of any nation in the EU. And the security position just became paramount.
May should make a deal with Trump to join a reformed NAFTA.
Farage has now become the most valuable person in US-UK relations right now.
So the electorate will ignore all facts etc if they are mad enough with the elite. Interesting.
If your facts are that your income has fallen through the floor, there are no good jobs left for you, your town is decaying and you see no hope for the future, then rolling the dice may not seem quite so crazy.
You have to say, if Stein didn't stand I think Clinton would be POTUS.
Don't agree at all. Entirely possible if Stein doesn't stand her votes go Johnson or A.Nother or stay at home. It's not as if the Green's voters were unaware they were wasting their votes when they chose to do so.
43m (((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten Gonna need some post-election analysis but the exits (yes I know) have Clinton doing worse among blacks/Hispanics than Obama did.
Blah. Still can't sleep. One person who I've got congratulate is @SouthamObserver who has predicted the GE, Brexit, and this US Disaster right.
I slept till 3.47, woke up and had a guardian notification "stock markets plunge around the world..." and haven't been able to sleep since!
It's going to get worse from here. I think this campaign has been over for a long time. Trump was always winning. Just like Brexit.
Le Pen in France (She will mop up lots of the socialist vote in round 2, they won't go to Juppé), and the AfD in Germany (going to show huge increase, probably not far off the main two parties who will both suffer horribly) are the ones to watch next.
43m (((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten Gonna need some post-election analysis but the exits (yes I know) have Clinton doing worse among blacks/Hispanics than Obama did.
After what 13 hours Harry Enten discovered the national exit polls.
Obama's legacy was always going to be weak. He won in 2008 on a platform of 'hope' and 'change' that he was never going to be able to deliver on, because they are essentially meaningless.
So yes: if he had actually delivered 'hope' and 'change' then tonight's result would have been very different.
Sadly, whilst Trump will definitely deliver 'change', there isn't much 'hope' of it being positive.
Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
I haven't seen any third party figures yet, what are the numbers like for them, have they over performed?
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
I haven't seen a state where Stein's percentage would make a difference. When she has done better than 1% Hillary has won. Not looked at the Johnson yet.
Comments
She's on 215 ECVs now.
Trump on 244
Even if Free Trade is good, too much trade deficits are bad.
The abuse wasn't just one-way traffic.
But not as strongly as for Obama.
It wasn't entirely about white people.
Clinton's Pied Piper Strategy (use media contacts to promote Trump) has backfired spectacularly. PDF of our leak: https://t.co/DAmWNq9K0f https://t.co/R49V3TfMXC
Therefore it is also the question how much Russia has bought the election ...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1V6KwNnbBO1q4dDwC1r0rujdcNByLHpVI1O2WKpzNfV8/edit
we are not worthy ! we are not worthy !
just seen results ROFLMAO
experts who needs then :-)
As run down as they are, the UK's defensive capabilities are still the strongest of any nation in the EU. And the security position just became paramount.
Farage has now become the most valuable person in US-UK relations right now.
Hillary had almost no one in her rallies, just like Owen Smith.
43m
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gonna need some post-election analysis but the exits (yes I know) have Clinton doing worse among blacks/Hispanics than Obama did.
(*) Sorry!
It's going to get worse from here. I think this campaign has been over for a long time. Trump was always winning. Just like Brexit.
Le Pen in France (She will mop up lots of the socialist vote in round 2, they won't go to Juppé), and the AfD in Germany (going to show huge increase, probably not far off the main two parties who will both suffer horribly) are the ones to watch next.
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/nevada
this is where the left has shot itself in the foot people just wont say what they think if their opinions get ignored and vilified
polling is just impossible
So yes: if he had actually delivered 'hope' and 'change' then tonight's result would have been very different.
Sadly, whilst Trump will definitely deliver 'change', there isn't much 'hope' of it being positive.
But line bar on their summary page suggests different!
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/forecast/president
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
DYOR!!!
Time to catch up on sleep. Enjoyed the posts.