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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It is looking like Clinton’s firewall was as useful a defence as the Maginot Line

In the last three hours both Clinton and Trump have been both sub 1.10 and above 11 on Betfair pic.twitter.com/EivApSkQp7

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Nice thread title :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    edited November 2016
    Second. Like Hillary.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    You forgot the Luntz tweet declaring Hillary President early in the night.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    The Rust Belt is Trump's Ardennes?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Michigan gap down to 13k now.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,159
    Another catastrophic night for.. The pollsters.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,905
    Trump ahead in PA now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump takes the lead in Pennsylvania.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    I honestly expected Hillary to win before the votes came in!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    williamglenn said:

    Trump ahead in PA now.

    and CNN on a commerical break!
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,024
    williamglenn said:

    Trump ahead in PA now.

    That's it.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Whoa Pennsylvania
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,401
    RobD said:

    Nice thread title :D

    A chance to mock French military prowess, like I'd ever turn that down
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Andrew said:

    Michigan gap down to 13k now.

    Downtown Detroit is almost exhausted as a source of Hillary votes, outstanding counties heavily Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Right bed for me. NV looks D as does PA.

    But Rs will probably win one or two of MN, MI, WI...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,130
    Danny565 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Woah, HRC apparently didn't set foot in WI after getting the nomination....

    Utterly ridiculous and unwarranted complacency from the Clinton campaign from the beginning.
    Echoes of Labour in Scotland. "This is OUR state. We WEIGH our votes"

    Forget the Establishment, it's the Entitlement class of which Hillary Manchurian Clinton is the epitome of why their time is done.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,578
    Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.

    Trump ahead in PA now!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    Nice thread title :D

    A chance to mock French military prowess, like I'd ever turn that down
    *Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "Yorktown"*
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Sandpit said:

    Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.

    Trump ahead in PA now!

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    The projected fall in tomorrow's Dow Jones based on the out-of-hours spread betting is now bigger than the daily fall on 9/11
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    My gut just told me he would Trump would do it. I've been feeling it since Brexit. Despite much commentary on why the two aren't the same, there is the same core voter overlap, the left behind. They are going to make themselves heard.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    The news will have to start talking about Minnesota soon..
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.

    Trump ahead in PA now!

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again
    now 70k!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.

    Trump ahead in PA now!

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again
    Now 70k+...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.

    Trump ahead in PA now!

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again
    Now 72k.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My guess for the poll failure is LV screen
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Just backed a tie at 26.0
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Trump now on 193
    Clinton on 197

    Utah just went red
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,578
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Clinton's firewall was about as useful as the one on her mail server.

    Trump ahead in PA now!

    http://edition.cnn.com/election/results/states/pennsylvania

    Err: Clinton's back to 90k+ again
    I think we should leave PA in the TCTC column for a bit longer.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    IanB2 said:

    The projected fall in tomorrow's Dow Jones based on the out-of-hours spread betting is now bigger than the daily fall on 9/11

    That'll happen when you elect a leader who even Glenn Beck (of all people!) considers to be "dangerously unhinged".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Trump now on 193
    Clinton on 197

    Utah just went red

    McMuffin dashed.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Hillary lead in PA down to 65k.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Luntz is clearly his nickname!
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    Danny565 said:

    Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

    Too late.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    IanB2 said:

    The projected fall in tomorrow's Dow Jones based on the out-of-hours spread betting is now bigger than the daily fall on 9/11

    I have quite a big business day tomorrow - I'm getting the feeling it'll be eerily quiet just as post 9/11 was.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Danny565 said:

    Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

    Michigan looking better for Clinton, Wisconsin worse
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Back on BBC as my Sky reception has gone to bits! They are showing PA could hold, but MI on a knife edge and Trump 3% ahead in WI with 70% of the votes counted.

    If Trump wins WI, he's President. I think this is over.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Artist said:

    The news will have to start talking about Minnesota soon..

    Yeah, was just thinking that. It's looking like it'll be seriously tight.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Paristonda said:

    My gut just told me he would Trump would do it. I've been feeling it since Brexit. Despite much commentary on why the two aren't the same, there is the same core voter overlap, the left behind. They are going to make themselves heard.

    agreed
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Minnesota is about to flip Trump on NYT.
    She's down to 0.1 lead from 4+
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Trump is leading in WA with 72% of Seattle in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    I never thought 26.0 would be a good price for a tie, but I think the chance is over 4% now !
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Speedy said:

    Hillary lead in PA down to 65k.

    And up to 75k...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    rcs1000 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Clinton needs divine intervention in Wisconsin.

    Michigan looking better for Clinton, Wisconsin worse
    Yeah, she's 3 points down with 70% counted.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Speedy said:

    Trump is leading in WA with 72% of Seattle in.

    It has been called by CNBC for Clinton, don't know if they're right
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited November 2016
    FL for Trump

    OMG!!!

    Trump now on 222 electors
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Trump Takes Florida - BBC.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    MikeL said:

    WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

    414 of 478 reported on NY Times.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Tony said:

    Minnesota is about to flip Trump on NYT.
    She's down to 0.1 lead from 4+

    That's incredible
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,128
    BBC calls Florida for Trump
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    MikeL said:

    WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

    87% of Milwaukee is in.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    NYT says Trump is 95% certain in WI
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    Alistair said:

    My guess for the poll failure is LV screen

    You pointed it out to me which made me buy a big position on Trump!
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited November 2016
    fpt;

    Speedy said:
    » show previous quotes
    I think it's actually greater, since the Exit Polls where extremely wrong, also 99% of opinion polls.

    ---

    The polls look to have been out by about 4 points on average, although it's still early.

    4 points is not far from the average polling error in US elections - an error of that magnitude ain't unexpected.

    The polls just pointed to the *wrong* overall result, which will be their main crime.

    Having just said that, the herding in the final polls was a bit ridiculous - as Nate Silver pointed out yesterday morning. 538 deserve a gold coconut for their coverage/analysis.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    MikeL said:

    WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

    Happy Days?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,997
    I went to bed when FL was looking good for Hillary, having decided that the benefits of recovery after more than nine weeks of sleepless nights outweighed missing a Trump concession speech. Woke up to feed the baby only to find that Trump has take Ohio by double digits and that Michigan is in play. Hillary still has firewalls - PA above all now - but Trump has gone through so many that even if they ultimately hold, she'd be no more than a lame duck president from day 1 given the way congress is going.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    It looks like Clinton will take PA, and MI looks increasingly good.

    IA called for Trump.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    MikeL said:

    WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

    87% of Milwaukee is in.
    Not according to CNN!

    But they may be wrong.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    The arrogance of Clinton in summary:

    "She prepared 2 speeches tonight...because she is superstitious"

    Not because she might lose...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump needs 54 more electoral votes according to NY Times.

    http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Clinton will take PA, and MI looks increasingly good.

    IA called for Trump.

    rcs1000 said:

    It looks like Clinton will take PA, and MI looks increasingly good.

    IA called for Trump.

    MI good for Clinton you mean?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796208993916121088

    It's over. Donald Trump will be President.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    edited November 2016
    MikeL said:

    WI: Almost ALL of Milwaukee still to come.

    Eh? NYT saying 414/478 reported in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796208993916121088

    It's over. Donald Trump will be President.

    Wow!
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    Tissue Price.

    From the previous thread. How do you rate Hillary's chance of winning the popular vote, in % terms?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Fox calls Wisconsin for Trump. That's him at 271, he's won.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,578
    Fox call Wisconsin for Trump!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    PA: Clinton down to 72K, but not long to go...
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    So Wisconsin goes Trump and that takes him to 272 by my reckoning without Nevada
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    CNN has called Florida for Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,919
    Sandpit said:

    Fox call Wisconsin for Trump!

    right, bed :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    CNN website also calls FL for Trump
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Alistair said:

    My guess for the poll failure is LV screen

    I think that's right. It's the same reason that polls in Britain struggle - predicting who will actually vote is really hard.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    Cracking interview on Sky with ancient woman in Florida, proving the stereotype that it is the snow state.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    JennyFreeman said:

    So Wisconsin goes Trump and that takes him to 272 by my reckoning without Nevada

    What states are you giving ?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Andrew said:

    Fox calls Wisconsin for Trump. That's him at 271, he's won.

    Yep.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,997
    TSE. Dodgy analogy. The Germans were forced to go round the Maginot line; Trump is going through Hillary's defences, as well as taking in a few flank attacks.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Big Trump win in Florida
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    When Hillary decided to make her "deplorables" speech, why the hell didn't one of her advisors tell her to change it beforehand?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    On topic:

    Looks like Nevada could well be the firewall winner

    Hat tip Nabavi.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    When will CNN call WI...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    How is AZ looking?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    edited November 2016
    Beeb ticker says

    Trump 228
    Clinton 209
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    Minnesota has flipped to Trump.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    Andrew said:

    Fox calls Wisconsin for Trump. That's him at 271, he's won.

    Yep. It's pretty much now over.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,332
    MI looking better for Trump as well now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    RobD said:

    When will CNN call WI...

    They haven't even called Georgia where Trump leads by 10%.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Pence has come in to 700 on Betfair.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Tony said:

    Minnesota has flipped to Trump.

    If Michigan goes as well then it's not even going to be that tight. Trump will be home with room to spare.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/796208993916121088

    It's over. Donald Trump will be President.

    GA called for Trump
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    Why is New Hampshire taking so long?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I suspect the Clintons will be booking their own tickets to Canada right about now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,257
    MaxPB said:

    MI looking better for Trump as well now.

    Hope MI comes in (and PA doesn't) because i'm on 4 of Trump's big 6 with Ladbrokes.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    When does Betfair pay out on the Next President market? Surely we don't have to wait until Jan 20?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,024
    edited November 2016
    Well, I had a funny feeling this was Brexit all over again. And so it has proven.

    President Donald Trump. Wow.

    Three things to take from this:

    1. Dems have to seriously kick themselves for choosing Clinton now. They have known for ages that, although popular with some of the base, she is widely distrusted by the country at large.
    2. Was the FBI letter the October surprise to end all October surprises?
    3. Is there room in someone's fallout shelter?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    On topic:

    Looks like Nevada could well be the firewall winner

    Hat tip Nabavi.

    Eh?!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Danny565 said:

    I suspect the Clintons will be booking their own tickets to Canada right about now.

    Canada's too sensible a country not to turn 'em back at passport control.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,155
    Trump has to win the ME congressional district to get to 270, right?
This discussion has been closed.