Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
Suddenly it all makes sense. It's a little bit like the UK. One side of the argument is broadly united, the other divided.
In this case, the united, social conservative half is arguably the minority, but the main progressive party haemorrhages votes to splinter factions. For Green and Libertarian, read Lib Dem and SNP.
I'm probably indulging in oversimplification here, but you get where I'm coming from?
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
Pre-Brexit -- Corbyn, the SNP and almost independence.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
Suddenly it all makes sense. It's a little bit like the UK. One side of the argument is broadly united, the other divided.
In this case, the united, social conservative half is arguably the minority, but the main progressive party haemorrhages votes to splinter factions. For Green and Libertarian, read Lib Dem and SNP.
I'm probably indulging in oversimplification here, but you get where I'm coming from?
It's nonsense. Far more Republicans will have voted Johnson than Democrats voted Stein. Trump's won because enough working class Democrats and non-voters have voted for him rather Hillary not because of third parties.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
certainly not the end for political betters. "Volatility is your friend."
In 2008, Paul Linford said that if Clinton was the Dem candidate, the election was the Republicans' to lose.
I thought that was still true this year, particularly after emails.
However, I will freely admit I thought the republicans had done more than enough to lose this election narrowly, especially the way demographics favoured Democrats in the EC. Clearly I was guilty of gravely underestimating the effect of 40 years of scandal and 20 years of failure.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?
It seems the Clinton 'victory' rally was to be held in a building with a glass ceiling in NY, so she could make something of a point. Oh well. I wonder when she will be calling Donald Trump?
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?
Compete. For Britain we need 3 things: 1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment 2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British 3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.
Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse
Analysis on Beeb: Clinton may have been let down by millennials (who wanted Bernie) deserting her and voting - not necessarily for Trump - but Libertarian or Green. Sounds plausible.
Suddenly it all makes sense. It's a little bit like the UK. One side of the argument is broadly united, the other divided.
In this case, the united, social conservative half is arguably the minority, but the main progressive party haemorrhages votes to splinter factions. For Green and Libertarian, read Lib Dem and SNP.
I'm probably indulging in oversimplification here, but you get where I'm coming from?
At GE2015, Con + UKIP was a majority, UK-wide (just!)
The general impression I get is that Clinton and her supporters were too confident. Their claims reminded me of the article that used to keep getting posted here, about how Brown's Labour party couldn't possibly lose in 2010.
Basically the Clinton camp seemed to be arrogantly assuming the election was theirs by right, an attitude that probably helped alienate many swing voters.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Trump still leads by 1.2% in the national popular vote with a third of California now in
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?
Compete. For Britain we need 3 things: 1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment 2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British 3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.
Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse
No. That won't do. You won twice now with Brexit and now Trump. Congratulations. But you're in charge now. You have to stop Gobalisation like you promised. We'll be monitorng progress.
Whether they'll work with Trump is another question, but if they do assuming the Senate stays red - which seems a very safe assumption - he's going to be extremely powerful, more so than any president since George W. Bush before Katrina.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
I can understand why people are angry and upset but there isn't really anything that can be done about globalisation. Trump's supporters are probably going to end up being disappointed with him before long.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
It's alright being anti-globalisation. What do you do about it?
Compete. For Britain we need 3 things: 1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment 2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British 3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.
Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse
An interesting set of ?policies?, thanks. The problem is I think they're pretty much unworkable, at least for a country our size. That's not being defeatist; it's a sign of how interconnected the world has become.
It may well be more possible for the US.
Edit: besides, that does nothing about globalisation. It may offset he worst effects of it, but it's not 'anti-globalisation'; especially if a more prosperous UK increases exports.
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
I can understand why people are angry and upset but there isn't really anything that can be done about globalisation. Trump's supporters are probably going to end up being disappointed with him before long.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.
Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.
Trump will keep gay marriage and in foreign policy is arguably further from George W Bush than Obama. If his victory is confirmed it will not only be a devastating defeat for the Clintons and the Democratic establishment, the Democrats will now certainly shift to the populist left but also a devastating defeat for the Bushes and the GOP establishment. Trump is a nationalist and protectionist and question marks must also be asked about the future of NAFTA and the WTO as well as the EU post Brexit if the nationalist wave boosts Le Pen and Wilders too
Interestingly, this kind of proves that Brexit is just part of a wider wave, and that the EU itself, like Hillary, was a casualty caught in it. The votes are anti-globalisation.
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
I can understand why people are angry and upset but there isn't really anything that can be done about globalisation. Trump's supporters are probably going to end up being disappointed with him before long.
What is the analysis here.
I mean if Comey doesn't send his letter does Clinton win?
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.
Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.
This election has overturned a number of previous assumptions as to what's needed to win, to put it mildly.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.
Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.
You can't blame them for feeling taken for granted.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Wisconsin looks like a huge polling failure to me.
Still can't believe that Hillary didn't set foot in the state during the campaign.
Touch complacement, just assumed it would fall Democrat.
An interesting point to note is that the polls tightened towards Trump, both statewide and nationally - but barely any had him ahead, so it was less noted..
Compete. For Britain we need 3 things: 1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment 2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British 3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.
Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse
No. That won't do. You won twice now with Brexit and now Trump. Congratulations. By you're in charge now. You have to stop Gobalisation like you promised. We'll be monitorng progress.
People both like and dislike globalisation. Globalisation can't be stopped entirely. Nor can you cherry-pick so that we only get the good aspects of globalisation (access to cheap goods and services, we all get richer) and completely avoid the bad (various forms of social and economic dislocation). But it is possible to prioritise what voters desire.
One example with respect to Brexit: mass unskilled immigration with no government power to limit numbers is an aspect of globalisation that most people are not entirely happy with. Implementing it was a poor policy choice (on the behalf of the EU, or the EU national leaders who had the power to stop it) and it may well prove to be one of the things that brings down the EU as we know it. Post-Brexit it becomes a policy choice for the UK government, or whatever's left of it.
It's incorrect to think there are zero policy choices and nothing anybody can do about anything. There is a limited policy space, and there are certainly costs associated with policies, but it's not beyond the wit of government to change the face of globalisation and its lived experience within the UK.
Just off to work. Gonna be stuck in a BA set all day so I'm going to miss all the fun. That Clinton rally looks like a wake. How will the US pull itself together now that half its population is deplorable?
Just off to work. Gonna be stuck in a BA set all day so I'm going to miss all the fun. That Clinton rally looks like a wake. How will the US pull itself together now that half its population is deplorable?
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Trump presently leads the national popular vote by almost 1. 5 million votes with over a third of California having now reported
It seems obvious now that what Clinton should have done was to ignore Trump completely and just focus on her own policies. By taking on Trump she was doing exactly what he and his supporters wanted.
It seems obvious now that what Clinton should have done was to ignore Trump completely and just focus on her own policies. By taking on Trump she was doing exactly what he and his supporters wanted.
The lack of last minute scandal to throw at Trump on the weekend was a big miss.
I didn't do too badly. My Spin lost only a free bet of £50, and I backed Trump at 5.7 yesterday, and in all of the great lakes states inc Pennsylvania. I think about £250 up overall. I lost on a few states but never thought there was much value in Hillary. Mike did well to bale out of the Spin when he did. My equities will take a bit of a battering, but I have been bearish on US and Asian stocks.
Trump was never in the lead with any polls bar a couple around the conventions. Betfair never had him lower than 3 until a couple of hours ago. It's Brexit on steroids.
I think the national polls finished with Clinton about 3-4 and she'll end up winning by 1-2.
Only by piling votes up in California where they don't count.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Well yes national polls are really based around what the national results will be.
Trump presently leads the national popular vote by almost 1. 5 million votes with over a third of California having now reported
In a way, I hope he does win the popular vote, however marginal.
It will hang over this election like a bad smell if the EC/Popular Vote is split again, and make it even harder for the country to come together (harder than it already is!)
Aussie stock exchange down 2%. Hang Seng and Bombay both off by 3%. the Nikkei is down by over 5%, presumably due to the appreciation of the Yen.
Given that it is virtually certain that Trump will win, I'm surprised (and relieved) that it's not worse. Hopefully means there won't be a rout when the bourses open in Europe.
Comments
Bernie may have done better but any mainstream democrat would have lost to Trump. This isn't about individual favorability.
In this case, the united, social conservative half is arguably the minority, but the main progressive party haemorrhages votes to splinter factions. For Green and Libertarian, read Lib Dem and SNP.
I'm probably indulging in oversimplification here, but you get where I'm coming from?
People in the long run tend to abuse their position for their own personal beliefs and needs.
Pollsters and the media abused their position once again peddling crap.
I thought that was still true this year, particularly after emails.
However, I will freely admit I thought the republicans had done more than enough to lose this election narrowly, especially the way demographics favoured Democrats in the EC. Clearly I was guilty of gravely underestimating the effect of 40 years of scandal and 20 years of failure.
The pollsters screwed up bigly here, as they did in the UK at the refereddum and the last election.
Now Trump has to deliver. Like Leave.
1. A White Heat of Technology approach. We can lead new technology on things like the environment
2. A Dig for Britain approach. Pride in your community. Buy British grow British eat British
3. A proper cost benefit analysis. Companies closing operations here to save pennies abroad has a higher cost on the nation - we need to pass that on. Corporation tax cuts if you pay a living wage and invest here. Tarrifs if you offshore operations and think you can continue to be here.
Fundamentally politicians on both sides of the Atlantic are in thrall to a banker set who profit from globalisation with the cost imposed on nation states and on communities. It has to stop or we get Trump. And Le Pen. And worse
In PA both Blair and Cameron voted for Trump
as did Clinton
Basically the Clinton camp seemed to be arrogantly assuming the election was theirs by right, an attitude that probably helped alienate many swing voters.
The rust belt polling utterly failed though.
When I went to bed Trump was losing Florida, aint it wonderful what 4 hours of sleep will do.
He predicted a wide wide ECV margin.
Whether they'll work with Trump is another question, but if they do assuming the Senate stays red - which seems a very safe assumption - he's going to be extremely powerful, more so than any president since George W. Bush before Katrina.
It may well be more possible for the US.
Edit: besides, that does nothing about globalisation. It may offset he worst effects of it, but it's not 'anti-globalisation'; especially if a more prosperous UK increases exports.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AshleySemlerBBC/status/796230889558732800
Even if Trump wins by 1% in PA with just 3% left.
I mean if Comey doesn't send his letter does Clinton win?
On £15/ECV
An interesting point to note is that the polls tightened towards Trump, both statewide and nationally - but barely any had him ahead, so it was less noted..
Its £150 I'll save !
One example with respect to Brexit: mass unskilled immigration with no government power to limit numbers is an aspect of globalisation that most people are not entirely happy with. Implementing it was a poor policy choice (on the behalf of the EU, or the EU national leaders who had the power to stop it) and it may well prove to be one of the things that brings down the EU as we know it. Post-Brexit it becomes a policy choice for the UK government, or whatever's left of it.
It's incorrect to think there are zero policy choices and nothing anybody can do about anything. There is a limited policy space, and there are certainly costs associated with policies, but it's not beyond the wit of government to change the face of globalisation and its lived experience within the UK.
That Clinton rally looks like a wake. How will the US pull itself together now that half its population is deplorable?
To quote Talleyrand, they have learned nothing...
I thought he would lose, but that was hardly an indicator of popularity or not.
(Not, as Charles points out, that either is a happy parallel).
Edit - also Eisenhower in 1952 I think. Don't know who Ann Coulter is but she's clearly done no research.
https://twitter.com/Pearcesport/status/796237301017939968
http://www.oddschecker.com/olympics/olympics/olympic-general-specials/2024-olympics/host-city
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/796229649344954368
Trump is President.
I've made my biggest ever single-event profit of about £1660 (prev best was £1100 on Nadal v Federer at Australia 2009).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wxyN3z9PL4
It will hang over this election like a bad smell if the EC/Popular Vote is split again, and make it even harder for the country to come together (harder than it already is!)
Given that it is virtually certain that Trump will win, I'm surprised (and relieved) that it's not worse. Hopefully means there won't be a rout when the bourses open in Europe.
Evan McMullin came second in Utah; Mitt Romney must examine his conscience, his silence cost evan the state. @MittRomney