politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six hours or so before we start to get an idea
Comments
-
They were fools to do this if the data can't be interpreted correctly.JackW said:0 -
Actually in american presidential elections since 2004 they do turn out, some polls though had their turnout dropping to 1996 levels.Pulpstar said:
Young people won't turn out.Speedy said:
All groups are up in almost every state.PrinceofTaranto said:Rumours that evangelical turnout is going to be the highest since Reagan
Pennsylvania is expecting 80% turnout.
I think we are going to see the battle of the turnouts, young vs old, working class vs rich, minorities vs whites, just like......Brexit ?
They NEVER do.
But the opinion polls seem to be wrong about the estimated turnout levels in general it seems so who knows.
If young voters don't turn out Hillary is doomed, her lead comes exclusively out of people under the age of 40.0 -
Most forecasts are projecting the Democrat national vote lead to be roughly the same as 2012. They're predicting a swing to the GOP in the north-east and mid-west, which is pretty much cancelled out by a swing to the Democrats in the western half of the country. The south-east is predicted to stay about the same as before.0
-
I still expect Clinton to win, but wouldn't be surprised if she didn't. I think the margin will be tighter than 3.5%, hence my prediction of 279-259 in the ECV. Why so close?nielh said:This feels very brexitty.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
1. Republican voting intention in the generic ballot has shot up over the past fortnight, and support for Republican Senators has remained strong. Split-ticket voting still exists, but the vast majority of Republican voters will vote Trump, if through gritted teeth. I don't think this is going to be a 1996 type election.
2. Populist insurgent and/or right wing candidates are generally doing a bit better than polls imply. That suggests there's a stigma to admitting voting that way, which ends in the privacy of the polling booth.
3. The zeitgeist favours someone like Trump over Clinton.
I've put £25 on Trump at 4-1. I think he has a better chance than that.0 -
Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump0 -
Another Govt defeat in the Lords today - on Children & Social Work Bill.
Govt making a big effort - Lab + LD have 55 more Peers than Con - but Con cut that deficit to just 8 due to much higher turnout.
However Crossbenchers broke significantly against Govt - resulting in Govt defeat by 32.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/0 -
Mine would be similar if I could be bothered to do it. The Orangeman is heading to the White House. Jack's Arse will fail for the second time in a row ;-)Mortimer said:Right - after a few hours voting, and due to popular (well, just Ajobbob), here is my final map:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOLG9
0 -
LEAVE won the Brexit vote by a margin of 3.8%AndyJS said:Most forecasts are projecting the Democrat national vote lead to be roughly the same as 2012. They're predicting a swing to the GOP in the north-east and mid-west, which is pretty much cancelled out by a swing to the Democrats in the western half of the country. The south-east is predicted to stay about the same as before.
Will Hillary's margin be even closer?0 -
What's the current composition of the Lords, if you have it handy? Do you know how far the LDs have fallen since their peak?MikeL said:Another Govt defeat in the Lords today - on Children & Social Work Bill.
Govt making a big effort - Lab + LD have 55 more Peers than Con - but Con cut that deficit to just 8 due to much higher turnout.
However Crossbenchers broke significantly against Govt - resulting in Govt defeat by 32.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/0 -
This is useful from Nate Silver. Not.
"3) Basically, these 3 cases are equally likely
a—Solid Clinton win
b—Epic Clinton blowout
c—Close call, Trump *probably* wins Elect. Coll."
twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/7960178090966671360 -
Somebody reads PB.Pulpstar said:
I've been asking whether this is a possibility for some time.
Good evening everyone. May your wins be large and your losses small.0 -
Harry Enten of 538 with a timely warning about "leaked" exit poll information :
"We’re now three and a half hours until we get our first look at exit poll data. That data is currently under quarantine. I remember a time, however, when that data could leak it out. Back in 2004, the very first wave of exit polls suggested by mid-afternoon that Democrat John Kerry was well on his way to defeating Republican President George W. Bush. Many people believed that the exits were right, and it even caused massive movement in the stock market. It turned out that the data was wrong. The exit polls overestimated Kerry’s support, and Bush went on to to win a small but comfortable victory.
That should serve as a lesson both at 5 p.m. and now. We won’t know who is going to win until the votes are actually counted. Don’t believe in reports you read online that supposedly give you a keen insight of who is going to win. No one knows."0 -
Which is exactly what Clegg and friends are trying to achieve. It's as nakedly transparent as La Sturgeon's attempts at getting the English to tell Scotland to f.off and enjoy their independence.williamglenn said:
At which point the average Leave voter will recoil in horror and the Brexit coalition will disintegrate.Sandpit said:
The average Leave voter isn't. Some will be though, led on by Farage and the Daily Express.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.0 -
RobD said:
What's the current composition of the Lords, if you have it handy? Do you know how far the LDs have fallen since their peak?MikeL said:Another Govt defeat in the Lords today - on Children & Social Work Bill.
Govt making a big effort - Lab + LD have 55 more Peers than Con - but Con cut that deficit to just 8 due to much higher turnout.
However Crossbenchers broke significantly against Govt - resulting in Govt defeat by 32.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords
HM Government
Conservative Party (255)
HM Most Loyal Opposition
Labour Party (206)
Crossbench
Crossbenchers (182)
Other groups
Liberal Democrats (104)
Non-affiliated (25)
Democratic Unionist Party (3)
UK Independence Party (3)
Ind. Labour (2)
Ulster Unionist Party (2)
Green Party (1)
Ind. Social Democrat (1)
Ind. Ulster Unionist (1)
Plaid Cymru (1)
Lords Spiritual
Bishops (26)
(sits with government)
0 -
Trump will be a hugely powerful president - with both Congress and the Supreme Court on his side. He can do a hell of a lot of harm very easily.nielh said:This feels very brexitty.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
0 -
Surprisingly, none of my mates wanted to eat with me this evening when I said I might be a little preoccupied by the election....
Can't think why. Surely a smartphone with the betfair app up is de rigeur in Chelsea, these days?0 -
Instead we have votecastr.JackW said:Harry Enten of 538 with a timely warning about "leaked" exit poll information :
"We’re now three and a half hours until we get our first look at exit poll data. That data is currently under quarantine. I remember a time, however, when that data could leak it out. Back in 2004, the very first wave of exit polls suggested by mid-afternoon that Democrat John Kerry was well on his way to defeating Republican President George W. Bush. Many people believed that the exits were right, and it even caused massive movement in the stock market. It turned out that the data was wrong. The exit polls overestimated Kerry’s support, and Bush went on to to win a small but comfortable victory.
That should serve as a lesson both at 5 p.m. and now. We won’t know who is going to win until the votes are actually counted. Don’t believe in reports you read online that supposedly give you a keen insight of who is going to win. No one knows."
I'm getting more and more annoyed with startup firms with ridiculous names ending in "r" rather than "er"0 -
I like this bit:AnneJGP said:
Somebody reads PB.Pulpstar said:
I've been asking whether this is a possibility for some time.
Good evening everyone. May your wins be large and your losses small.
"Brexit campaigners in Britain reacted with anger to the idea, arguing that it would discriminate against Leave voters and that it was “an outrage”."0 -
In my GOP Primary-GE election theory it's natural, since Trump was strong east of the Mississippi while being weak west of it.AndyJS said:Most forecasts are projecting the Democrat national vote lead to be roughly the same as 2012. They're predicting a swing to the GOP in the north-east and mid-west, which is pretty much cancelled out by a swing to the Democrats in the western half of the country. The south-east is predicted to stay about the same as before.
0 -
I was supposed to be having a sleep this evening but it hasn't worked out that way...0
-
Probably a bit closer.Sunil_Prasannan said:
LEAVE won the Brexit vote by a margin of 3.8%AndyJS said:Most forecasts are projecting the Democrat national vote lead to be roughly the same as 2012. They're predicting a swing to the GOP in the north-east and mid-west, which is pretty much cancelled out by a swing to the Democrats in the western half of the country. The south-east is predicted to stay about the same as before.
Will Hillary's margin be even closer?0 -
Con 255, Lab 206, LD 104, Crossbench 182, Others 39, Bishops 26RobD said:
What's the current composition of the Lords, if you have it handy? Do you know how far the LDs have fallen since their peak?MikeL said:Another Govt defeat in the Lords today - on Children & Social Work Bill.
Govt making a big effort - Lab + LD have 55 more Peers than Con - but Con cut that deficit to just 8 due to much higher turnout.
However Crossbenchers broke significantly against Govt - resulting in Govt defeat by 32.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/
LDs haven't fallen much - they've had a few retirements in the last year but not many.
LDs benefit from fact about half of their current Peers (ie approx 50) were appointed since 2010 so all of these are still pretty young (by Lords standards!).0 -
I wouldn't resort to violence but I would be extremely angry and disillusioned with our democracy.Sandpit said:williamglenn said:Sandpit said:
The average Leave voter isn't. Some will be though, led on by Farage and the Daily Express.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.0 -
Chelsea? Some Russians have a lot at stake on this.Mortimer said:Surprisingly, none of my mates wanted to eat with me this evening when I said I might be a little preoccupied by the election....
Can't think why. Surely a smartphone with the betfair app up is de rigeur in Chelsea, these days?0 -
One of their candidates is running.Jonathan said:
Chelsea? Some Russians have a lot at stake on this.Mortimer said:Surprisingly, none of my mates wanted to eat with me this evening when I said I might be a little preoccupied by the election....
Can't think why. Surely a smartphone with the betfair app up is de rigeur in Chelsea, these days?0 -
are u reconsidering your forecast?JackW said:Harry Enten of 538 with a timely warning about "leaked" exit poll information :
"We’re now three and a half hours until we get our first look at exit poll data. That data is currently under quarantine. I remember a time, however, when that data could leak it out. Back in 2004, the very first wave of exit polls suggested by mid-afternoon that Democrat John Kerry was well on his way to defeating Republican President George W. Bush. Many people believed that the exits were right, and it even caused massive movement in the stock market. It turned out that the data was wrong. The exit polls overestimated Kerry’s support, and Bush went on to to win a small but comfortable victory.
That should serve as a lesson both at 5 p.m. and now. We won’t know who is going to win until the votes are actually counted. Don’t believe in reports you read online that supposedly give you a keen insight of who is going to win. No one knows."0 -
Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?0
-
Hope Clinton can do it, not that I expect her to be a good president but the thought of a maniac like trump leading the most powerful nation on earth is a terrifying prospect for the world.0
-
How?SouthamObserver said:
Trump will be a hugely powerful president - with both Congress and the Supreme Court on his side. He can do a hell of a lot of harm very easily.nielh said:This feels very brexitty.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
The GOP Congress hates him.
Trump would probably function as an independent President, think Ross Perot if he had won in 1992.0 -
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....0 -
Sound advice Richard.......My 2008 winnings were almost wiped outRichard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
But Richard you can talk the talk....but can you walk the walk?
0 -
-
I've been out all day - please can somebody advise exactly what "votecastr" is?RobD said:
Instead we have votecastr.JackW said:Harry Enten of 538 with a timely warning about "leaked" exit poll information :
"We’re now three and a half hours until we get our first look at exit poll data. That data is currently under quarantine. I remember a time, however, when that data could leak it out. Back in 2004, the very first wave of exit polls suggested by mid-afternoon that Democrat John Kerry was well on his way to defeating Republican President George W. Bush. Many people believed that the exits were right, and it even caused massive movement in the stock market. It turned out that the data was wrong. The exit polls overestimated Kerry’s support, and Bush went on to to win a small but comfortable victory.
That should serve as a lesson both at 5 p.m. and now. We won’t know who is going to win until the votes are actually counted. Don’t believe in reports you read online that supposedly give you a keen insight of who is going to win. No one knows."
I'm getting more and more annoyed with startup firms with ridiculous names ending in "r" rather than "er"
How much notice should we take of it?
If any notice - can anyone summarise what it has said so far?0 -
I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.0 -
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....0 -
Is there a book on how quickly Clinton will win the Nobel Peace Prize if elected?0
-
I'll go easy (both on the booze and the betting). My position is basically set up, but I do need to correct if it looks like either a Clinton landslide or a convincing Trump win.tyson said:Sound advice Richard.......My 2008 winnings were almost wiped out
But Richard you can talk the talk....but can you walk the walk?0 -
Interesting, very similar to my thoughts but with AZ and NV flipping DEM.Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.0 -
Or is it more a case of "Game over, man! Game over!"Sunil_Prasannan said:
[Bill Paxton voice] I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!FrancisUrquhart said:So are we all preped for a bigly night?
0 -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
Oh for heavens sake.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
0 -
So very EURobD said:
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
Excellent news for us Europhiles!Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
Saves me dragging up Irish ancestors.0 -
Let's call the whole thing off?RobD said:
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
Seriously -- expand the last thread and then do a search on it. But the short answer is not much; it looks like they guess voters' demographics and use that to guess how they voted.MikeL said:
I've been out all day - please can somebody advise exactly what "votecastr" is?RobD said:
Instead we have votecastr.JackW said:Harry Enten of 538 with a timely warning about "leaked" exit poll information :
"We’re now three and a half hours until we get our first look at exit poll data. That data is currently under quarantine. I remember a time, however, when that data could leak it out. Back in 2004, the very first wave of exit polls suggested by mid-afternoon that Democrat John Kerry was well on his way to defeating Republican President George W. Bush. Many people believed that the exits were right, and it even caused massive movement in the stock market. It turned out that the data was wrong. The exit polls overestimated Kerry’s support, and Bush went on to to win a small but comfortable victory.
That should serve as a lesson both at 5 p.m. and now. We won’t know who is going to win until the votes are actually counted. Don’t believe in reports you read online that supposedly give you a keen insight of who is going to win. No one knows."
I'm getting more and more annoyed with startup firms with ridiculous names ending in "r" rather than "er"
How much notice should we take of it?
If any notice - can anyone summarise what it has said so far?0 -
Indeed, don't get that at all.williamglenn said:
I like this bit:AnneJGP said:
Somebody reads PB.Pulpstar said:
I've been asking whether this is a possibility for some time.
Good evening everyone. May your wins be large and your losses small.
"Brexit campaigners in Britain reacted with anger to the idea, arguing that it would discriminate against Leave voters and that it was “an outrage”."0 -
HRC will win by 4%. Boring.0
-
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
0 -
I also have Arizona and Nevada going DEM, but Michigan, FL, NC, NH and Maine CD-2 going REP.Mortimer said:
Interesting, very similar to my thoughts but with AZ and NV flipping DEM.Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
I think Maine's CD-2 going Trump is likely based on the N.H. midnight vote, northern rural N.H. is similar to Maine's CD-2.
Democratic strength in the West, Republican strength in the East is my basic assumption.0 -
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?0 -
For the EU, not for us! Although I wonder if they could do this without the UK government's consent?williamglenn said:
Let's call the whole thing off?RobD said:
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
There's a 'white' candidate and an orange one. He must be for Hillary, right?619 said:0 -
Well, that's very generous of them. I'm not sure how it squares with their stated principle that we can't cherry-pick the benefits of the EU, though.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
I don't get it either. It surely in their interests. Free movement. One way. And only for those that want/need it.AnneJGP said:
Indeed, don't get that at all.williamglenn said:
I like this bit:AnneJGP said:
Somebody reads PB.Pulpstar said:
I've been asking whether this is a possibility for some time.
Good evening everyone. May your wins be large and your losses small.
"Brexit campaigners in Britain reacted with anger to the idea, arguing that it would discriminate against Leave voters and that it was “an outrage”."0 -
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant0 -
Thanks! Attrition not as high as I would have hoped (obviously not wishing an untimely demise on any of their individual lordships)MikeL said:
Con 255, Lab 206, LD 104, Crossbench 182, Others 39, Bishops 26RobD said:
What's the current composition of the Lords, if you have it handy? Do you know how far the LDs have fallen since their peak?MikeL said:Another Govt defeat in the Lords today - on Children & Social Work Bill.
Govt making a big effort - Lab + LD have 55 more Peers than Con - but Con cut that deficit to just 8 due to much higher turnout.
However Crossbenchers broke significantly against Govt - resulting in Govt defeat by 32.
https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/business-papers/lords/lords-divisions/
LDs haven't fallen much - they've had a few retirements in the last year but not many.
LDs benefit from fact about half of their current Peers (ie approx 50) were appointed since 2010 so all of these are still pretty young (by Lords standards!).0 -
If that is the result then faithless electors will come to choose, or Paul Ryan.Sandpit said:
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?0 -
I noticed votecastr has admitted to some glitches in it's "data gathering"......my hunch is those glitches are probably lawyers threatening them with all sorts.0
-
Caffe coretto?tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....0 -
[12:00 EST] Our Nevada results showed Jill Stein with ~1.7. She is not on the ballot but was included in our survey which is used to develop the model. We messed up and we are correcting the Nevada results accordingly.tyson said:I noticed votecastr has admitted to some glitches in it's "data gathering"......my hunch is those glitches are probably lawyers threatening them with all sorts.
0 -
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
0 -
Thankfully that's exactly what we're doing! Bon Voyage EU - it's been average.williamglenn said:
Let's call the whole thing off?RobD said:
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
0 -
Shudders619 said:0 -
Wow. Grappa. Serious stuff.tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
If Trump wins I will drown my sorrows at about 4am tomorrow with a Šljivovica.0 -
"Someday we might look back on this and decide that Saving Paul Ryan was the one decent thing we were able to pull out of this whole godawful, shitty mess."Speedy said:
If that is the result then faithless electors will come to choose, or Paul Ryan.Sandpit said:
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?0 -
I'd go with my idea of passing a Bill to put the American clocks back 2 years, and start over with new candidates. Meanwhile, as it's only 2014, Obama has two more years left to serve.....Sandpit said:
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?0 -
0
-
They are becoming a joke. I hope they are totally discredited by this.Pulpstar said:
[12:00 EST] Our Nevada results showed Jill Stein with ~1.7. She is not on the ballot but was included in our survey which is used to develop the model. We messed up and we are correcting the Nevada results accordingly.tyson said:I noticed votecastr has admitted to some glitches in it's "data gathering"......my hunch is those glitches are probably lawyers threatening them with all sorts.
0 -
Cher has been out on the campaign trail for Hillary. "If I could turn back time..."MarqueeMark said:
I'd go with my idea of passing a Bill to put the American clocks back 2 years, and start over with new candidates. Meanwhile, as it's only 2014, Obama has two more years left to serve.....Sandpit said:
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?0 -
I agree.SouthamObserver said:
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
As I mentioned:
https://twitter.com/mcall/status/796067117523173376
In 2012 it was 65%.
And as you see in the above picture they are all white and none of them young.0 -
Votecastr is giving loads of data now........
Looking very good for Hillary....Jack's ARSE0 -
Trump should have been out of this weeks ago if politics was played by traditional rules. The split Republican party alone should have spelt doom. But it didn't. He was still there in with a shout this morning. Something out there is sustaining him.SouthamObserver said:
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
Marry that with the lack of obvious enthusiasm for Clinton and the gut rumbles.
Still the data points to Clinton.
0 -
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
0 -
What a surprise. Did he really not see that this is what would happen and chances are the Left will rally against it and the whole thing will be a riot.619 said:Farage organises the jackboots
https://twitter.com/TheMichaelMoran/status/796067135445409797
And to what purpose?
Parliament is not going to block A50.0 -
Can anyone explain to me why VoteCastr's early vote for Florida is 3,685,667, when the official figure is about 6.5 million?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_clinton_leads_in_florida.html
I can't make sense of their figures at all.0 -
I believe and hope that no civil unrest would be generated, but you are right about the disillusionment.TW1R64 said:I wouldn't resort to violence but I would be extremely angry and disillusioned with our democracy.
After so many habitual non-voters turned out because they were told that this time their vote really counted; their votes were counted, indeed apparently did count; but then to find out they can be over-ruled & ignored.
What is the point of voting?
(But sorry, didn't mean to side-track the thread)
edited to try to sort the blockquotes
0 -
Frank Luntz on Channel 4 News on his reports - Clinton 95% chance of winning.0
-
0
-
A few women. Also, which city? What time?Speedy said:
I agree.SouthamObserver said:
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
As I mentioned:
https://twitter.com/mcall/status/796067117523173376
In 2012 it was 65%.
And as you see in the above picture they are all white and none of them young.0 -
And to think Betfair had a dump on Trump based on the Votecastr figures.RobD said:
They are becoming a joke. I hope they are totally discredited by this.Pulpstar said:
[12:00 EST] Our Nevada results showed Jill Stein with ~1.7. She is not on the ballot but was included in our survey which is used to develop the model. We messed up and we are correcting the Nevada results accordingly.tyson said:I noticed votecastr has admitted to some glitches in it's "data gathering"......my hunch is those glitches are probably lawyers threatening them with all sorts.
0 -
I'll co-sponsor your bill! There's so many reasons to wish 2016 was just a long dream.MarqueeMark said:
I'd go with my idea of passing a Bill to put the American clocks back 2 years, and start over with new candidates. Meanwhile, as it's only 2014, Obama has two more years left to serve.....Sandpit said:
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?0 -
They've made a bit of a mess of it, yes. Overstretched I guess, as a result of the tie-up with Slate. They're forced to produce a whole raft of presentational stuff, and seemingly they lack the skills and/or manpower to do that in real time.RobD said:
They are becoming a joke. I hope they are totally discredited by this.
The shame is the basic idea is good. The campaigns use this same method on election day, so as to direct their efforts to where they're most needed.0 -
The law is that polling stations stay open until everyone who was in the queue has voted. There was a long queue on the last day of EV and they kept the polling station open until they had all voted. This is just Trump kicking sand to muddy the waters. *Mixed metaphor warningPulpstar said:0 -
Dual citizenship. I guess it would be hugely popular. Although as Richard N says, it would be a very nice cherry to pick.RobD said:
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship0 -
-
It's rigged619 said:ANDECTOTE ALERT
https://twitter.com/ZoeSumra/status/795976287663882240
0 -
Looks early morning based on the shadows.619 said:
A few women. Also, which city? What time?Speedy said:
I agree.SouthamObserver said:
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
As I mentioned:
https://twitter.com/mcall/status/796067117523173376
In 2012 it was 65%.
And as you see in the above picture they are all white and none of them young.0 -
Looks like Trumpers to me.619 said:
A few women. Also, which city? What time?Speedy said:
I agree.SouthamObserver said:
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
As I mentioned:
https://twitter.com/mcall/status/796067117523173376
In 2012 it was 65%.
And as you see in the above picture they are all white and none of them young.0 -
Encouraging to hear reports of high turnout - good for democracy given the circumstances. It could easily have been under 50%.0
-
I think the explanation is in the article:Chris said:Can anyone explain to me why VoteCastr's early vote for Florida is 3,685,667, when the official figure is about 6.5 million?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_clinton_leads_in_florida.html
I can't make sense of their figures at all.
As of this moment, VoteCastr has not yet made estimates for every early voter; they are still processing a large number of early votes in Florida, for instance.
So presumably it means that they've got data on large numbers of voters and they can match the names to an existing profile, which they can then use to predict how people will vote.
In principle that should work very well. But of course, it all depends on (a) how good their profiling is at predicting the voting behaviour, and (b) whether there is a systematic bias in whether they can match a voter to a profile. I'd expect the second of these to be potentially a serious problem.0
