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How is Trump, Plato's hero? Can you provide a link? This baiting of one of the few people on PB who posts contrary views on USA is very unseemly.nunu said:
How long before Plato cites that as voter fraud? She's not gonna accept it when her hero gets roundly rejected by the people is she?619 said:
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538 is currently forecasting three states to change hands: Ohio and Iowa to Trump and North Carolina to Clinton. That would give Clinton 323, Trump 215.
Popular vote: Clinton +3.5%.0 -
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.0 -
No one claims they do. But Trump isn't getting 40% of them like some polls say.Dromedary said:
I have a friend in Florida who is of distant Hispanic origin, and who would probably count as native white in Britain but in the US she and her family are categorised as Hispanic. Family is middle class, not particularly well off, but doing okay. She voted for Sanders in the primary and put a clothespeg on her nose to vote for Clinton in the election. The rest of her family are enthusiastic Trump supporters. The view that Hispanics, or even Hispanophone Hispanics who don't have a Cuban background, all back Clinton is wishful thinking.gettingbetter said:
If it helps we had some distant relatives to stay from Florida of Colombian origin, they were definite Clinton voters, though preferred Sanders.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
Democrat primary turnout way higher than GOP but obviously a very reliable GOP state.Speedy said:
Thanks for the welcome everybody.Pulpstar said:
Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for KentuckySpeedy said:Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
I haven't looked at Kentucky, it's not competitive on either the Senate or Presidential level.
Has something happened there, apart from Trump somehow overperforming Rand Paul ?
Bit of an anomaly, that's all.0 -
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
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They settle on the electoral college results of today, though (unless no-one has a majority of the EC).NickPalmer said:
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
Unfortunately Minnesota had a caucus where most GOP voters thought Marco Rubio was a relation of Ricky Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
But I'm going to make a prediction, if you see the USA map of 2012 at county level you will notice a big blue blob at the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois borders.
That's a relic of 19th century scandinavian immigrants who dominated the upper midwest, they are populists and progressives by tradition, it's slowly closing in over the decades and I think it will close almost completely today.0 -
Baiting? When someone provides info from bad sources I'm allowed to point it out. She has constantly implied the election is rigged against the candidate she supports with zero reliable evidence that tells me she won't accept the result even if the result is clear.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.rcs1000 said:
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
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I don't know about anyone else but I'm in a right old mess with my betting. My state bets are all over the shop...I've just checked, and seen a shedload on gender...god knows when I put that on. Must have been a late nighter..... I've got stuff on EV's votes too that I didn't know I had, and my turnout bets look crap.
The US election is far too complicated for someone like me.
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I've got about 1.2k liability on "anyone else" (Except select chosen few) - not really worried about it, just I'll be laying rather than backing this evening.Richard_Nabavi said:
They settle on the electoral college results of today, though (unless no-one has a majority of the EC).NickPalmer said:
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
He's right. When they see May looking as though she's about to welcome large numbers of Indian immigrants as part of a post-Brexit trade deal, most ordinary people who voted for Brexit will think exactly that: "this isn't what we thought we were voting for".Alanbrooke said:
ROFLwilliamglenn said:Going off topic but surely if Trump wins we will have to interpret Brexit as being a cri du coeur against the current system in its broadest sense rather than a vote specifically for leaving the EU? Fundamentally it's mass-immigration and the financialisation of the economy that people want to put a stop to. Leaving the EU is not a solution to their problems.
you'll twist the EUref anyway possible to say we didnt vote for what we voted
Maybe this is the meaning of the asinine phrase "Brexit means Brexit"? "The ballot paper said leave the EU, and that's all you'll get, you dirty oiks". On the face of it, it's supposed to convey resolve and respect for the electorate; a deeper meaning is "shut the fuck up".0 -
Reps doing well in Martin County Florida--election day Reps 7737 Dem2915 other 3193
see martinvotes.com0 -
What a pointless article. Just some meaningless waffle about being progressive.IanB2 said:Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html0 -
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
Listen SO...less off that wallowing in pity before the horse has bolted. Stiff upper lip...There's plenty of time to whine if Trump gets elected..SouthamObserver said:
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.rcs1000 said:
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
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Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.Speedy said:
Unfortunately Minnesota had a caucus where most GOP voters thought Marco Rubio was a relation of Ricky Rubio.Pulpstar said:
Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
But I'm going to make a prediction, if you see the USA map of 2012 at county level you will notice a big blue blob at the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois borders.
That's a relic of 19th century scandinavian immigrants who dominated the upper midwest, they are populists and progressives by tradition, it's slowly closing in over the decades and I think it will close almost completely today.0 -
Oh FFS Jeremy Vine prancing around in front of graphics!
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Betfair's "Next President" market is intending to pay out tomorrow though, based on the declarations of the States - the various machinations were discussed when both Trump and Clinton have looked like they might be replaced over the past few months. They'll only hold it if neither main candidate gets to 270 tonight.NickPalmer said:
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.1073734190 -
Sure, but it doesn't mean they have to shut up either!OllyT said:
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:
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Kentucky had a caucus for the first time ever instead of a primary.Pulpstar said:
Democrat primary turnout way higher than GOP but obviously a very reliable GOP state.Speedy said:
Thanks for the welcome everybody.Pulpstar said:
Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for KentuckySpeedy said:Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
I haven't looked at Kentucky, it's not competitive on either the Senate or Presidential level.
Has something happened there, apart from Trump somehow overperforming Rand Paul ?
Bit of an anomaly, that's all.
Also along with W.Virginia it's a relic of rural Democrats who vote Republican since 2000 in almost every race but are still registered Democrats.
Anyway I think my GOP primary-GE election theory is going to be tested most in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania it would be Bucks county that we should have an eye on, Trump did worse than normal in the south-eastern Philadelphia suburbs but not in the northern ones.0 -
Good point.brokenwheel said:One thing to remember, plenty of white "working class" voters will be registered Dem.
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I am on Trump in the Midwest states, but Hillary overall. I do best on an HC landslide, but am not overexposed. Some of my legacy bets from 6 months ago do look a little odd now!tyson said:I don't know about anyone else but I'm in a right old mess with my betting. My state bets are all over the shop...I've just checked, and seen a shedload on gender...god knows when I put that on. Must have been a late nighter..... I've got stuff on EV's votes too that I didn't know I had, and my turnout bets look crap.
The US election is far too complicated for someone like me.
I have backed the ARSE, on turnout and overall.0 -
Chuka?MP_SE said:
What a pointless article. Just some meaningless waffle about being progressive.IanB2 said:Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html
The point is, ladies and gentleman, that left -- for lack of a better word -- is good.
Left is right.
Left works.
Left clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
Left, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind.
And Let -- you mark my words -- will not only save the UK, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
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As far as I am aware no-one is telling them to shut up - it seems to apply only to anyone who dares suggest that they may not have suddenly inherited the wisdom of Solomon in bringing Brexit & Trump upon us.Dromedary said:
Sure, but it doesn't mean they have to shut up either!OllyT said:
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
Bad sources? After the shite we had about the Referendum polling and the GE2015?nunu said:
Baiting? When someone provides info from bad sources I'm allowed to point it out. She has constantly implied the election is rigged against the candidate she supports with zero reliable evidence that tells me she won't accept the result even if the result is clear.TCPoliticalBetting said:
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No, no, no!TCPoliticalBetting said:
Chuka?MP_SE said:
What a pointless article. Just some meaningless waffle about being progressive.IanB2 said:Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html
The point is, ladies and gentleman, that left -- for lack of a better word -- is good.
Left is right.
Left works.
Left clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
Left, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind.
And Let -- you mark my words -- will not only save the UK, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
Ed is good!0 -
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
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In a cowboy outfit?TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh FFS Jeremy Vine prancing around in front of graphics!
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The Daily Mail seems to have paid someone for Trump's old family photo album.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3913524/The-extraordinary-intimate-Trump-family-photos-THRIFT-SHOP-showing-Donald-s-softer-side.html0 -
Bring back Peter Snow!TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh FFS Jeremy Vine prancing around in front of graphics!
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Sporting's ECVs spread hasn't so far moved by more than a single vote all day which suggests that either they're doing no business or, more likely, there's well balanced business across their spread of 306-316 ECVs for Hillary and 221-231 ECVs for the Donald.
The next significant move might well tell us in which direction the election is moving - nothing talks as convincingly as money!0 -
Peston fighting the fight for Roland Rudd again and again.
http://order-order.com/2016/11/08/248955/0 -
No wallowing here. But it is 2016.tyson said:
Listen SO...less off that wallowing in pity before the horse has bolted. Stiff upper lip...There's plenty of time to whine if Trump gets elected..SouthamObserver said:
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.rcs1000 said:
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
0 -
Rumours that evangelical turnout is going to be the highest since Reagan0
-
That's what I'm counting onSouthamObserver said:
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.rcs1000 said:
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.0 -
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
Hello
Trump into 9-2.0 -
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
Nick Clegg is not powerful.Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
So we are going to get that £350 million extra a week for the NHS after all.
But I agree; no Brexit from me tonight.
0 -
I have a vision of him dressed as a latino...FrancisUrquhart said:
In a cowboy outfit?TCPoliticalBetting said:Oh FFS Jeremy Vine prancing around in front of graphics!
0 -
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight0 -
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).0 -
Clinton Florida "lead" at VoteCastr now at 270K :
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html0 -
Its heading towards civil unrest whatever happens, but the version I fear the most is the one where the brexit is denied and we are stuck in a declining EU which is blamed for everyone's problems.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
0 -
270k what? Because they sure as hell ain't counting votes!JackW said:Clinton Florida "lead" at VoteCastr now at 270K :
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
0 -
It doesn't mean that everyone has to shut up, but it does mean that those who seem determined to continue saying that the vote of the people should be ignored, are likely to bring out the worst behaviour in those people that did vote to leave.OllyT said:
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
I am glad we don't have voting machines in the UK.0
-
Hillsborough County, FL:
2012: Obama +6%
2016: Republicans +4%0 -
I'm a grammar nazi, and proud of it.RobD said:
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
All groups are up in almost every state.PrinceofTaranto said:Rumours that evangelical turnout is going to be the highest since Reagan
Pennsylvania is expecting 80% turnout.
I think we are going to see the battle of the turnouts, young vs old, working class vs rich, minorities vs whites, just like......Brexit ?0 -
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.rcs1000 said:
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight0 -
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).0 -
38/61 Obama/RomneyPrinceofTaranto said:Reps doing well in Martin County Florida--election day Reps 7737 Dem2915 other 3193
see martinvotes.com0 -
I've always wondered.. what's the German for grammar nazi.rcs1000 said:
I'm a grammar nazi, and proud of it.RobD said:
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
Young people won't turn out.Speedy said:
All groups are up in almost every state.PrinceofTaranto said:Rumours that evangelical turnout is going to be the highest since Reagan
Pennsylvania is expecting 80% turnout.
I think we are going to see the battle of the turnouts, young vs old, working class vs rich, minorities vs whites, just like......Brexit ?
They NEVER do.0 -
How many are independents?PrinceofTaranto said:Hillsborough County, FL:
2012: Obama +6%
2016: Republicans +4%0 -
All aboard the Trump Train.PrinceofTaranto said:Hillsborough County, FL:
2012: Obama +6%
2016: Republicans +4%0 -
Hillsborough is normally a good bellwether.0
-
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
0 -
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....tyson said:
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).0 -
If a Brit comes home waving his Associate EU Member passport would he be subject to the new standard UK visa requirements for EU citizens?Pulpstar said:
0 -
So are we all preped for a bigly night?0
-
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....RobD said:
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....tyson said:
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
0 -
Pretty insensitive to call it fancy dresstyson said:
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....RobD said:
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....tyson said:
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
0 -
This feels very brexitty.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
0 -
You have a very strange view of the white working class. Why would they not know that the LibDems got massacred at the last GE, that Clegg is no longer LD leader and that backbench MPs have virtually no power?Sandpit said:
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.rcs1000 said:
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
0 -
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.Sandpit said:
It doesn't mean that everyone has to shut up, but it does mean that those who seem determined to continue saying that the vote of the people should be ignored, are likely to bring out the worst behaviour in those people that did vote to leave.OllyT said:
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
0 -
But they're not trying to compete with 'Naked News', they're trying to predict the election - and at that, they don't seem to have much of a clue.tyson said:
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).0 -
The problem is, Mr Observer, that our PB right-wingers think that that is a good thing.SouthamObserver said:A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
0 -
Got some free bets to use up - any last minute advice? Trump popular vote? Any states?0
-
Right - after a few hours voting, and due to popular (well, just Ajobbob), here is my final map:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOLG90 -
Until someone gives us some gender trends I'm not listening to all the other noise.....
The turnout is high....quite who is being motivated to vote is impossible to know at the minute....0 -
Yet more racism from Remoaning lefty tyson!tyson said:
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....RobD said:
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....tyson said:
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).0 -
£15k/day!Sandpit said:
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.rcs1000 said:
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight0 -
Evening all.
Frank ‘public opinion guru’ Luntz, has a mischievous sense of humour. Or should we panic?
0 -
[Bill Paxton voice] I am ready, man! Ready to GET IT ON!FrancisUrquhart said:So are we all preped for a bigly night?
0 -
Knowing German, it's probably an improbably long word ... ending in "ung" :-)RobD said:
I've always wondered.. what's the German for grammar nazi.rcs1000 said:
I'm a grammar nazi, and proud of it.RobD said:
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0 -
Backbench MPs certainly have power in numbers.SouthamObserver said:
You have a very strange view of the white working class. Why would they not know that the LibDems got massacred at the last GE, that Clegg is no longer LD leader and that backbench MPs have virtually no power?Sandpit said:
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.rcs1000 said:
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
They do know that Clegg is trying to force a vote in Parliament on triggering Brexit, so that he and a number of fellow MPs can vote against acknowledging the referendum result.0 -
But don't the opinion polls show the Tories outpolling GE2015, and Labour underperforming?PClipp said:
The problem is, Mr Observer, that our PB right-wingers think that that is a good thing.SouthamObserver said:A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
0 -
The average Leave voter isn't. Some will be though, led on by Farage and the Daily Express.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.Sandpit said:
It doesn't mean that everyone has to shut up, but it does mean that those who seem determined to continue saying that the vote of the people should be ignored, are likely to bring out the worst behaviour in those people that did vote to leave.OllyT said:
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
Yeah I see that republicans are up from 2012 almost all around Florida except Miami.PrinceofTaranto said:Hillsborough County, FL:
2012: Obama +6%
2016: Republicans +4%
There is high Latino turnout but also high White turnout.
Here take this and move the turnout figures around:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
I increase Hispanic turnout to 100% (I'm generous to Hillary), I shift college educated whites 10 points to Hillary, I shift non-college educated whites 15 points to Trump while increasing their turnout to 70%.
I keep the black vote the same as 2012, which might also be generous to Hillary.
I get Trump winning slightly over Hillary in the Popular Vote and wins the election with the Rust Belt while being weak in the West and Texas.0 -
Heh, reminded me of thisFloater said:
Knowing German, it's probably an improbably long word ... ending in "ung" :-)RobD said:
I've always wondered.. what's the German for grammar nazi.rcs1000 said:
I'm a grammar nazi, and proud of it.RobD said:
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/59bnxe/at_what_time_you_shower_in_germany/
"Zeitbegrenzte Ausländer-Duschzeitgenehmigungsantrag" which I think loosely translates to "foreigner shower permit"
0 -
Yep, that's what he declared for his one day gig hosting HIGNFY last month!rcs1000 said:
£15k/day!Sandpit said:
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.rcs1000 said:
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?Sandpit said:
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.SouthamObserver said:
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
http://order-order.com/2016/11/03/clegg-makes-60000-month-15000-hignfy/0 -
Sorry Sunil...in hindsight that didn't sound right. She does look fetching though....and I think Indian women are the most beautiful in the world (well next to Italians)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yet more racism from Remoaning lefty tyson!tyson said:
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....RobD said:
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....tyson said:
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......brokenwheel said:
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.Speedy said:
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.brokenwheel said:<
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
0 -
In Wikipedia, Grammar Nazi redirects to "Linguistic prescription"RobD said:
I've always wondered.. what's the German for grammar nazi.rcs1000 said:
I'm a grammar nazi, and proud of it.RobD said:
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_prescription
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grammar_Nazi0 -
I've decided to further increase my stake in several large popcorn conglomerates.Speedy said:
Yeah I see that republicans are up from 2012 almost all around Florida except Miami.PrinceofTaranto said:Hillsborough County, FL:
2012: Obama +6%
2016: Republicans +4%
There is high Latino turnout but also high White turnout.
Here take this and move the turnout figures around:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
I increase Hispanic turnout to 100% (I'm generous to Hillary), I shift college educated whites 10 points to Hillary, I shift non-college educated whites 15 points to Trump while increasing their turnout to 70%.
I keep the black vote the same as 2012, which might also be generous to Hillary.
I get Trump winning slightly over Hillary in the Popular Vote and wins the election with the Rust Belt while being weak in the West and Texas. 0 -
At which point the average Leave voter will recoil in horror and the Brexit coalition will disintegrate.Sandpit said:
The average Leave voter isn't. Some will be though, led on by Farage and the Daily Express.SouthamObserver said:
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.0 -
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normative_GrammatikFloater said:
Knowing German, it's probably an improbably long word ... ending in "ung" :-)RobD said:
I've always wondered.. what's the German for grammar nazi.rcs1000 said:
I'm a grammar nazi, and proud of it.RobD said:
Admit it, you were being naughty.rcs1000 said:
Eh? You asked how Trump was.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Why? I have completed the day job and dipping into PB.rcs1000 said:
I suspect he's tired and stressed. You would be too.TCPoliticalBetting said:0
This discussion has been closed.