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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six hours or so before we start to get an idea
Not the best start to #Election2016 day for Donald Trump – being roundly booed on his way to vote (via @AnupKaphle) pic.twitter.com/g8YlsTx0lR
Comments
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That Luntz tweet scares me.0
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Maybe, though he doesn't say if it's black or white...TheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
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Third like Labour0
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Cheating bastardTheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
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Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pADHLsECWxY0 -
A Luntz tweet has no evidentiary value, one way or the other.TheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
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Meanwhile, schadenfreude ?
http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/in_darkness_and_in_secret_christie_votes_for_trump.html0 -
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Fiji, here I come!TheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
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FPT:
The trick, which is more difficult than it sounds, is to abandon ship quickly if events aren't running as you expect. At 10pm on June 23rd I had a lot of money on Remain, which was at that point in the blue what with Boris, Farage and others conceding all over the place. A couple of hours later I had ditched the lot - in no small part due to the shared wisdom of PB - and ended the night several £K better off.tyson said:
With Brexit...I was a convinced that there was some private polling going on that was influencing the markets...then as the night unfolded it became clear that people were clueless/ there is no magic polling/IanB2 said:Well global stock markets have perked up this last hour or two; people somewhere are expecting some good news.
So the stock markets are reacting because they hope Clinton is going to win/ a kind of reverse Plato0 -
....and a nice image of a Roseate Spoonbill amongst the images on the scrolling header....Alistair said:0 -
Looks like Donald is checking out which way Milania is voting...
All not well in Chez Trump?0 -
The election day Republican count is significantly higher.Alistair said:0 -
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Go get some sleep!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
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That is a very aged image of Michael Moore, who lost a ton of weight and is now relatively sveldt.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pADHLsECWxY
Relatively.0 -
Any back up? I thought we were supposed to be being told important shit like this - for the first time ever....TheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
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Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.
https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/7959828140428001290 -
He wouldn't be saying it's good for Trump if he was talking about AAs...619 said:
Maybe, though he doesn't say if it's black or white...TheScreamingEagles said:That Luntz tweet scares me.
This is what I've been saying, the question is how YUUUGE is the Trump Train.0 -
If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......0
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Is that before or after the monkey-brain eating scene?Theuniondivvie said:Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.
https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129
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That's what I'm thinking too...Pulpstar said:If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......
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An oddly exciting night.
Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz0 -
I was hoping someone had set up a twitter list of useful commentators/sources, but quick hunt and couldn't find one.Razedabode said:An oddly exciting night.
Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz0 -
Dan Hodges?Razedabode said:An oddly exciting night.
Who's good to follow on twitter for up to date election info/commentary?
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I couldn't have put it better myself!Pulpstar said:
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On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump0 -
I'm not sure who looks more ridiculous in that photo - Boris or Theresa.Theuniondivvie said:Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.
https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/7959828140428001290 -
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump0 -
If he sweeps the rust belt he doesn't need NV and FL.rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump0 -
https://mobile.twitter.com/electproject?lang=en-gbAndrew said:
I was hoping someone had set up a twitter list of useful commentators/sources, but quick hunt and couldn't find one.Razedabode said:An oddly exciting night.
Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz
https://mobile.twitter.com/steveschale
https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports
Will have to wait before it gets more exciting.0 -
Has someone lightened her skin?Theuniondivvie said:Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.
https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129 0 -
Did I really type site rather than sight... oh dear.Pulpstar said:0 -
Has Louise Mensch threatened to come back to the UK if Trump wins?Pulpstar said:0 -
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
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Can I request that Speedy is unbanned for the night? W are going to need him.0
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That Republicans vote early?williamglenn said:
That's what I'm thinking too...Pulpstar said:If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......
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Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html0 -
Perfect. Twitter is great for nights like tonight - adds to the drama (if there is any - may just end up being as simple as it sounds and a Clinton victory)nunu said:
https://mobile.twitter.com/electproject?lang=en-gbAndrew said:
I was hoping someone had set up a twitter list of useful commentators/sources, but quick hunt and couldn't find one.Razedabode said:An oddly exciting night.
Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz
https://mobile.twitter.com/steveschale
https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports
Will have to wait before it gets more exciting.0 -
Could well end up something like this I reckon.
#talkingupmyownbook
http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O0 -
What did he get the ban hammer for?gettingbetter said:Can I request that Speedy is unbanned for the night? W are going to need him.
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The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
Don't be so dramatic, he won't be President until Januaryrottenborough said: 0 -
The next Prime Minister.GIN1138 said:0 -
Any reports of burly men?0
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I'll have what you're having.williamglenn said:
The next Prime Minister.GIN1138 said:0 -
A wave of passionate outpouring that swept the country second only to Beatlemania...how could you possibly forget?GIN1138 said:0 -
AZ blue but NV red?Jobabob said:Could well end up something like this I reckon.
#talkingupmyownbook
http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O0 -
That gives me enough time to build the nuclear shelter. I'll have to use my winnings to fund it. Oh no, wait I'm on Clinton...RobD said:
Don't be so dramatic, he won't be President until Januaryrottenborough said:0 -
Bit of light relief....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3916416/BBC-slammed-disgraceful-decision-pin-poppy-Cookie-Monster.html
Cookie Monster says....F##k You Tw@tter....0 -
Nope. I think we all agree that it's mostly rubbish right now. Maybe it will get better later, but it's probably of more use later as an aftercast - to compare what it was doing now to the actual outcome, in time for the next election.619 said:0 -
Cos the Dems are all in work.Alistair said:
That Republicans vote early?williamglenn said:
That's what I'm thinking too...Pulpstar said:If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......
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I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
Turn the outrage dial to 11!FrancisUrquhart said:Bit of light relief....
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3916416/BBC-slammed-disgraceful-decision-pin-poppy-Cookie-Monster.html
Cookie Monster says....F##k You Tw@tter....0 -
Surely the only place you need tonight is pb? What's with this twitter stuff?
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Last time too if the Indy wants their circulation to exist. That's a poor piece.IanB2 said:Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html0 -
That's Clinton wins by Florida, but I doubt she'll take that state.Jobabob said:Could well end up something like this I reckon.
#talkingupmyownbook
http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O0 -
Doesn't really go with the white working class meme.rottenborough said:
Cos the Dems are all in work.Alistair said:
That Republicans vote early?williamglenn said:
That's what I'm thinking too...Pulpstar said:If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......
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0
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Clinton 52%IanB2 said:Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html
Trump 48%
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Shrouds have no pockets!rottenborough said:
That gives me enough time to build the nuclear shelter. I'll have to use my winnings to fund it. Oh no, wait I'm on Clinton...RobD said:
Don't be so dramatic, he won't be President until Januaryrottenborough said:0 -
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A mistake – you catch my driftRobD said:
AZ blue but NV red?Jobabob said:Could well end up something like this I reckon.
#talkingupmyownbook
http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O
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Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
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If it helps we had some distant relatives to stay from Florida of Colombian origin, they were definite Clinton voters, though preferred Sanders.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
One thing to remember, plenty of white "working class" voters will be registered Dem.0
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Going off topic but surely if Trump wins we will have to interpret Brexit as being a cri du coeur against the current system in its broadest sense rather than a vote specifically for leaving the EU? Fundamentally it's mass-immigration and the financialisation of the economy that people want to put a stop to. Leaving the EU is not a solution to their problems.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.0 -
Is it the right breast that freemasons have to bare in India?Chris said:
I'm not sure who looks more ridiculous in that photo - Boris or Theresa.Theuniondivvie said:Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.
https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/7959828140428001290 -
How long before Plato cites that as voter fraud? She's not gonna accept it when her hero gets roundly rejected by the people is she?619 said:0 -
Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.0 -
ROFLwilliamglenn said:
Going off topic but surely if Trump wins we will have to interpret Brexit as being a cri du coeur against the current system in its broadest sense rather than a vote specifically for leaving the EU? Fundamentally it's mass-immigration and the financialisation of the economy that people want to put a stop to. Leaving the EU is not a solution to their problems.Sandpit said:
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.Dromedary said:
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.Sandpit said:
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.TheScreamingEagles said:
He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
you'll twist the EUref anyway possible to say we didnt vote for what we voted0 -
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
Welcome back Speedy!0
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Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for KentuckySpeedy said:Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.0 -
Eh? It's still about 10 hours until Nevada polls close619 said:0 -
Welcome back, Mr. Speedy.
Anyway, I've got to be off. Probably won't be back until tomorrow. Good luck to everyone with their bets.0 -
Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
Also has baked in massive turnout so a flip is harder.Pulpstar said:
Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.Sandpit said:
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
From Terry Pratchett's Going Postal:
What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter.0 -
Long day at work. Hopefully I'll have little trouble falling asleep once home, in order to be up at 11pm or so.0
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Congratulations on being released from the PB "sin bin" - I always thought PB banland was like Hotel California and the EU...Speedy said:Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.0 -
Shy Trumpster alert!brokenwheel said:One thing to remember, plenty of white "working class" voters will be registered Dem.
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I have a friend in Florida who is of distant Hispanic origin, and who would probably count as native white in Britain but in the US she and her family are categorised as Hispanic. Family is middle class, not particularly well off, but doing okay. She voted for Sanders in the primary and put a clothespeg on her nose to vote for Clinton in the election. The rest of her family are enthusiastic Trump supporters. The view that Hispanics, or even Hispanophone Hispanics who don't have a Cuban background, all back Clinton is wishful thinking.gettingbetter said:
If it helps we had some distant relatives to stay from Florida of Colombian origin, they were definite Clinton voters, though preferred Sanders.foxinsoxuk said:
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.Sandpit said:
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.RobD said:
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?rottenborough said:On the other hand:
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.0 -
Thanks for the welcome everybody.Pulpstar said:
Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for KentuckySpeedy said:Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
I haven't looked at Kentucky, it's not competitive on either the Senate or Presidential level.
Has something happened there, apart from Trump somehow overperforming Rand Paul ?0 -
Last week a polling station had a thousand person line so was open till 10pm+to clear it as "if to you are in line you get to vote".rcs1000 said:
Eh? It's still about 10 hours until Nevada polls close619 said:
Republicans are using it as proof of voter fraud in favour of " those kind " of people.0 -
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.Sandpit said:
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.0 -
Speedy said:
Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
Thanks, much appreciated. Second request, can Clinton have at last 330 ECVs please?gettingbetter said:Can I request that Speedy is unbanned for the night? W are going to need him.
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