politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit’s victory was miniscule and a swing of just 1.85% would
Comments
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Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.0 -
can someone remind me what happened last time a clinton faced a republican nominee abandoned by the party?
Trump has no GOTV in the swing states other than the RNC ones. If they are making moves to not get out early voting for him and that carrys on for the next month, its over im afraid on a practical level. (well, not afraid, i want the racist, rapey prick to be humiliated)0 -
That is why the earlier they replace him the better.TheScreamingEagles said:The other clusterfuck about Trump not being the candidate/trying to remove him....
Early voting has already begun in some states.
They are in a hurry.0 -
What do you base this on?Chris_A said:Spot on Mike. This week has been utterly depressing for those of us willing to wish May a fair wind govern her opening 10DS speech. We're certainly not heading toward a success of Brexit now.
Honestly, some people seem to have short memories.0 -
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they have 2 choices: stick with trump and alienate non trump voters, or disown him and alienate trump voters.logical_song said:OK unless there are any major surprises to come - and I suppose there could be.
What about the Senate:
"Democrats currently have a 57 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to our polls-plus forecast and a 56 percent chance in polls-only. Those numbers have been fairly consistent since the conventions. In our polls-plus forecast, for instance, Democratic chances have never dropped below 52 percent and have never risen above 73 percent.1
To control the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats (they hold 46 seats now) if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats if Donald Trump wins. Right now, they have at least a 75 percent chance of winning currently Republican seats in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bigger question is whether they can win any three of the following seven seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania."
538
doesnt look good for the GOP either way0 -
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he doesSpeedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.0 -
Bob Dole lost by 7 points in 1996, GOP kept control of Congress.619 said:can someone remind me what happened last time a clinton faced a republican nominee abandoned by the party?
Trump has no GOTV in the swing states other than the RNC ones. If they are making moves to not get out early voting for him and that carrys on for the next month, its over im afraid on a practical level. (well, not afraid, i want the racist, rapey prick to be humiliated)
Trump won't be as lucky to lose by 7 as things stand.0 -
Every time a Republican politician comes out against Trump it probably helps his chances a bit.Alistair said:se it.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the mediaKentRising said:I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.0 -
If he doesn't show, will he be empty chaired?Speedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.0 -
This is all very reminiscent of you trying to back Andy Burnham at 15/2 when most of us were laying him at 50/1 plusHYUFD said:
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he doesSpeedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.0 -
Ed Balls up now.0
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Labour MPs already voted against Corbyn en masse, the Labour membership said sod you too!!TheScreamingEagles said:
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.Ishmael_X said:
Thank you.TheScreamingEagles said:
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.Ishmael_X said:
Explain pls?TheScreamingEagles said:
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.0 -
Forget Trump, it is Ed Balls on Strictly time0
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Burnham never won the Labour leadership, Trump won the GOP primaries, a totally different kettle of fishTheScreamingEagles said:
This is all very reminiscent of you trying to back Andy Burnham at 15/2 when most of us were laying him at 50/1 plusHYUFD said:
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he doesSpeedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.0 -
The election is a month away, isn't it?
I don't know how much the US resembles the UK, but one month out from most recent elections the perceived wisdom has been wrong over here.
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Of course they can, it will require a legal interpretation of the rules, but it can be done.HYUFD said:
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he doesSpeedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
The difference between early August and now is that Trump has lost the support of the GOP voters, and it's proven that he is terrible with debates.
They couldn't move him out in August because the GOP voters still had faith in him, not anymore.0 -
He definitely will show now, even more so if the RNC try to stop himfoxinsoxuk said:
If he doesn't show, will he be empty chaired?Speedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.0 -
Ed fookin Balls!!!0
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I'd be interested in hearing how raising interest rates will cause inflation to normalise. I assume, in this context, that normalise is, at least in the context of interest rates, a synonym for rise. That's before we move on to normalise and inflation.chestnut said:
JRM is basically correct about Carney.bigjohnowls said:It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.0 -
Some people still rage against the prospect of the UK being self-governing.Floater said:
What do you base this on?Chris_A said:Spot on Mike. This week has been utterly depressing for those of us willing to wish May a fair wind govern her opening 10DS speech. We're certainly not heading toward a success of Brexit now.
Honestly, some people seem to have short memories.0 -
Are his strides meant to be as tight as that?TheScreamingEagles said:Forget Trump, it is Ed Balls on Strictly time
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Ed was not Smokinnn0
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But also like when your g/f has passed on the STD and there's a national penicillin shortage.TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
'We'll only get elected once the discharge stops.'0 -
Nope, wrong on both counts. Trump is GOP nominee and cannot be removed unless he resigns. He remains competitive in the polls and as tonight's Luntz poll shows his supporters are fully behind himSpeedy said:
Of course they can, it will require a legal interpretation of the rules, but it can be done.HYUFD said:
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he doesSpeedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
The difference between early August and now is that Trump has lost the support of the GOP voters, and it's proven that he is terrible with debates.
They couldn't move him out in August because the GOP voters still had faith in him, not anymore.0 -
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.HYUFD said:
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow himmatt said:
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
I shall bow to your greater knowledge and experience of STDsTheuniondivvie said:
But also like when your g/f has passed on the STD and there's a national penicillin shortage.TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
'We'll only get elected once the discharge stops.'0 -
Trump withdraws
Rubio is his replacement
Cromwell returns to the forum0 -
If he doesn't show it will be a sign of weakness, an invitation to get fired by the RNC.foxinsoxuk said:
If he doesn't show, will he be empty chaired?Speedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
As I said the only option left for Trump is to negotiate his resignation terms, before the point he is kicked out.
Sort like Napoleon exiled to Elba.0 -
Ed Balls genius0
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A mere cold of the willy!TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall bow to your greater knowledge and experience of STDsTheuniondivvie said:
But also like when your g/f has passed on the STD and there's a national penicillin shortage.TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
'We'll only get elected once the discharge stops.'0 -
This is the picture I'll be using for all future Ed Balls related threads.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7848394072956928000 -
If Trump voters are at war with the Republican Party, what does that do to the House and Senate?0
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9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleadermatt said:
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.HYUFD said:
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow himmatt said:
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
I don't know. Was that said anywhere?matt said:
I'd be interested in hearing how raising interest rates will cause inflation to normalise.chestnut said:
JRM is basically correct about Carney.bigjohnowls said:It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.0 -
Only way I can see Trump getting it is if Clinton collapses during one of the remaining debates or something and has to pull out of the race on health grounds. But even then a replacement Dem candidate (not sure what the process is) would probably still beat Trump who looks like he's fatally wounded.
This video might not get voters to flock to Hilary as she's not exactly loved either but it may stop people who have always voted republican deciding to sit this one out.0 -
Chances DeNiro takes up Trump's challenge ?619 said:Trump focusing on the important things
https://twitter.com/reaIDonaldTrump/status/7847634736035512340 -
Are you claiming the luntz Twitter poll is a scientific poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, wrong on both counts. Trump is GOP nominee and cannot be removed unless he resigns. He remains competitive in the polls and as tonight's Luntz poll shows his supporters are fully behind himSpeedy said:
Of course they can, it will require a legal interpretation of the rules, but it can be done.HYUFD said:
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he doesSpeedy said:
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday.foxinsoxuk said:
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!Speedy said:
Tada.TheScreamingEagles said:
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this.
RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
The difference between early August and now is that Trump has lost the support of the GOP voters, and it's proven that he is terrible with debates.
They couldn't move him out in August because the GOP voters still had faith in him, not anymore.0 -
I tried to write a limerick about Luntz. Sadly, nothing rhymes.HYUFD said:
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleadermatt said:
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.HYUFD said:
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow himmatt said:
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
Some Trump voters could vote Trump and GOP for the House, not vote for non Trump backing GOP Senatorsedmundintokyo said:If Trump voters are at war with the Republican Party, what does that do to the House and Senate?
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How much spittle did you froth on your keyboard while writing that ?tyson said:
You are as bad as Corbynites who refuse to acknowledge that he is a poor candidate and would rather blame his Parliamentary colleagues for his dismal poll ratings.another_richard said:FPT
Indeed.Sean_F said:
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth
2) Living within their means
3) Increasing their savings ratio
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
YOU are the person who is ideologically obsessed and that's why you're raving about 99.99%s and future inevitabilities.
Now you might think that the UK having had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years is irrelevant or inconvenient but the fact remains that the UK has had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.
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Interesting, thank you. Some of those constituencies are oddly shaped.PlatoSaid said:Boundary Commission
Share your local knowledge and help shape constituency boundaries for your area
https://t.co/kAmK2dPwcC0 -
And Do a UKIP...Speedy said:
Chances DeNiro takes up Trump's challenge ?619 said:Trump focusing on the important things
https://twitter.com/reaIDonaldTrump/status/784763473603551234
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You said that interest rates and inflation need to normalise. They don't exist independently.0
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We are up a brown creek then, May has chucked prudence out the window.another_richard said:tyson said:
You are as bad as Corbynites who refuse to acknowledge that he is a poor candidate and would rather blame his Parliamentary colleagues for his dismal poll ratings.another_richard said:FPT
Indeed.Sean_F said:
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth
2) Living within their means
3) Increasing their savings ratio
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.0 -
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Not as accurate as he might be. If one is e.e.cummins with a tin ear.Ishmael_X said:
I tried to write a limerick about Luntz. Sadly, nothing rhymes.HYUFD said:
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleadermatt said:
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.HYUFD said:
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow himmatt said:
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
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Perhaps you can explain 5% interest rates going to 0.5% while inflation was rising to 5% just a few years ago?matt said:You said that interest rates and inflation need to normalise. They don't exist independently.
And while you're at it, the effects of government tax policy on inflation.
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Is that the next Bond villain ?ThreeQuidder said:Meanwhile, in more important news...
https://twitter.com/thesundaysport/status/784838007329284096
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0
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Nah, after the brilliance of SPECTRE and Christoph Waltz, we'll never see Blofeld in Bond movies again.another_richard said:
Is that the next Bond villain ?ThreeQuidder said:Meanwhile, in more important news...
https://twitter.com/thesundaysport/status/784838007329284096
SPECTRE was the finest Bond movie ever, FACT.0 -
Prudence was sold over a decade ago and the proceeds used to buy more imported tat.foxinsoxuk said:
We are up a brown creek then, May has chucked prudence out the window.another_richard said:tyson said:
You are as bad as Corbynites who refuse to acknowledge that he is a poor candidate and would rather blame his Parliamentary colleagues for his dismal poll ratings.another_richard said:FPT
Indeed.Sean_F said:
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth
2) Living within their means
3) Increasing their savings ratio
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.
And going out the window is the best option when the room is on fire.
The landing might hurt but there's more of a chance than staying inside.
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"Nigel Farage calls Trump comments 'alpha male boasting'":
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpGRoOTqkGk0 -
Step away from the keyboard. Now.TheScreamingEagles said:SPECTRE was the finest Bond movie ever, FACT.
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If he doesn't quit soon he will be kicked out anyway.619 said:Trump wont quit he shouts
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784840992734064641
They have already agreed his replacements:
https://twitter.com/costareports/status/7848194617192939520 -
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Luckily there's always been a plenitude of antibiotics in my lifetime.TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall bow to your greater knowledge and experience of STDsTheuniondivvie said:
But also like when your g/f has passed on the STD and there's a national penicillin shortage.TheScreamingEagles said:The GOP are effectively dumping Trump like you dump your new girlfriend when you find out she has an STD.
'We'll only get elected once the discharge stops.'0 -
From Russia with Love, then probably Casino Royale for me. Casino Royale was Craig's best bond film imo. I love Eva Green though so I am tad biased...TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, after the brilliance of SPECTRE and Christoph Waltz, we'll never see Blofeld in Bond movies again.another_richard said:
Is that the next Bond villain ?ThreeQuidder said:Meanwhile, in more important news...
https://twitter.com/thesundaysport/status/784838007329284096
SPECTRE was the finest Bond movie ever, FACT.0 -
@AshleyRParker: This morning, Pence called Trump and told him he had to handle the next 48 hours alone. He didn't think he'd be an effective surrogate.0
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I told you there are worse things coming.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, it gets worse
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/784841297228161024
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.0 -
Has he joined the liberals?TheScreamingEagles said:This is the picture I'll be using for all future Ed Balls related threads.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/7848394072956928000 -
They can't make him.Speedy said:
I told you there are worse things coming.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, it gets worse
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/784841297228161024
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.0 -
Jeremy Diamond @JDiamond1 9m
Another Trump bombshell from @KFILE: Trump gave Howard Stern green light to call daughter Ivanka a "piece of ass"
Most of the polls show Trump is a drag on the down ballot candidates, many have made the calculation they can lose a few hardcore Trump supporters to gain the support of moderate Dems and independents, especially incumbunt Repub candidates.edmundintokyo said:If Trump voters are at war with the Republican Party, what does that do to the House and Senate?
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If you want a close referendum result, I'll raise you a Quebec, 1995:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_19950 -
Having logged on and seen the thread, I thought its for shits and giggles.
We need a thread entitled "why remainers are psychologically unable to accept the result of the referendum"
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7/10 for the Sadface but still a lot they could learn from the Mail on that score.ThreeQuidder said:Meanwhile, in more important news...
https://twitter.com/thesundaysport/status/7848380073292840960 -
@michaelianblack: "I gotta distance myself from this guy" - David Duke0
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And for a bit of light relief
Scotland 0 - Lithuania 10 -
Colombia 6 days ago closer!Sunil_Prasannan said:If you want a close referendum result, I'll raise you a Quebec, 1995:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_19950 -
Sending my thoughts to the mogster. What a great own goal to his own image by supporting Trump.0
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"Mike Smithson is a pound-shop Lord Ashdown" - discuss
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Oh yes they can.edmundintokyo said:
They can't make him.Speedy said:
I told you there are worse things coming.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, it gets worse
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/784841297228161024
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
And Trump just lost Alabama:
https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/784824564903735296
Nixon recognized that it was over when he lost George Wallace.0 -
Trump might sack him !TheScreamingEagles said:@AshleyRParker: This morning, Pence called Trump and told him he had to handle the next 48 hours alone. He didn't think he'd be an effective surrogate.
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https://twitter.com/jamieross7/status/784846988340785152Big_G_NorthWales said:And for a bit of light relief
Scotland 0 - Lithuania 10 -
Best bet for Republican party now is to re-run 1996 - ignore the Republican nominee and concentrate all money and firepower on downballot races.0
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Trump will be the nominee on election day, he wants to be so barring death that's it.
The scenario that is likely is that the RNC removes their support, Pence steps down and is replaced by someone else, the RNC pile money into the tight senate races "to stop Clinton from implementing her policies" and 'do a Dole' on the presidential race.
....and it's minuscule, not mini (not having read the thread I presume that's already been done to death, though).0 -
In 1964, New York had two Republican senators. California possibly as well.619 said:0 -
so, do the trump rampers still think he will win?0
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No he has joined The Westmoreland Tories.Paul_Bedfordshire said:
Has he joined the liberals?TheScreamingEagles said:This is the picture I'll be using for all future Ed Balls related threads.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/784839407295692800
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Drop the "z".Ishmael_X said:
I tried to write a limerick about Luntz. Sadly, nothing rhymes.HYUFD said:
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleadermatt said:
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.HYUFD said:
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow himmatt said:
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.HYUFD said:
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again nowmatt said:
And the weighting and control?HYUFD said:
Trump presently leads 64% to 36% for PenceHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752?card_data={ "tweet_id" : "784759037170634752", "choice" : 1 }&ref_src=twsrc^tfwHYUFD said:
Trump won the primaries with almost all the GOP establishment against him so what is new! In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump. As for Berlusconi he reportedly had sex with underage girls, did not stop himDromedary said:Here's a case.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html0 -
wow One of the most conservatives states in the U.S.Speedy said:
Oh yes they can.edmundintokyo said:
They can't make him.Speedy said:
I told you there are worse things coming.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, it gets worse
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/784841297228161024
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
And Trump just lost Alabama:
https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/784824564903735296
Nixon recognized that it was over when he lost George Wallace.0 -
You are showing disrespect to our next PM.bigjohnowls said:Ed fookin Balls!!!
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More likely to be Pm than certain others.surbiton said:
You are showing disrespect to our next PM.bigjohnowls said:Ed fookin Balls!!!
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George Wallace was a Democrat as I recall, and ran against Nixon as a 3rd party candidate in 1968, and in the Democratic Primaries of 1972.Speedy said:
Oh yes they can.edmundintokyo said:
They can't make him.Speedy said:
I told you there are worse things coming.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, it gets worse
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/784841297228161024
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
And Trump just lost Alabama:
https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/784824564903735296
Nixon recognized that it was over when he lost George Wallace.0 -
At least, she got more out of him than the Internal Revenue !619 said:melanie trump condemns Trump!
https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/7848306859869593620 -
Westminster's fault.........Big_G_NorthWales said:And for a bit of light relief
Scotland 0 - Lithuania 10 -
On topic, a victory is a victory. The course is set until such point as sufficient numbers of the Brepenitent have paraded through the streets scourging themselves.
That will not happen in the near term, so the drama will continue to unfold.0 -
