I notice that your header omits any reference to the Welsh devolution referendum of 1997. I voted no to the assembly. So did 49.7% of the voting electorate. We lost. I felt then that the assembly would produce permanent Labour governments and be full of fourth rate jumped up Labour councillors seeking jobs for the boys. Twenty years on I have seen nothing to alter my view. But that is democracy. Tough. Get over it. The system of governing my country was changed by a majority of 6721. Not 1.4 million. I do not remember Labour bleating then how unfair it was that such a change could be made on the basis of a small margin of victory. As usual with the Left it is double standards. Welsh devolution suited their view of life. Brexit does not. Move on.
The whole premise of the article is a load of hystericalist oldthinker deviationism. A vote of 52% to 48% is an overwhelming and decisive mandate for the people of this country to grasp the nettle by the horns and become a Democratic Democracy once again. The Remoaning Remainiac Oldthinkers should learn to recognise that their obscurantist reactionary pro-oblivion anti-democracy fantasies are not worth the candle they're written on.
Wow, Mike even manages to get the 'Regrexit' meme in there. Every VI poll I've seen on a hypothetical re-run of the referendum shows Leave winning again, in some cases by a bigger margin; quite surprising given how the polls tended to slightly under-estimate us before 23/6.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
You may be right. Could depend upon whether James Rubin moves back into Hillary's team. He is the husband of British born Christiane Amanpour. He was an Asst Secy of State for Bill.
The whole premise of the article is a load of hystericalist oldthinker deviationism. A vote of 52% to 48% is an overwhelming and decisive mandate for the people of this country to grasp the nettle by the horns and become a Democratic Democracy once again. The Remoaning Remainiac Oldthinkers should learn to recognise that their obscurantist reactionary pro-oblivion anti-democracy fantasies are not worth the candle they're written on.
Not sure I understand these comments but I do most certainly agree. Remoaners lost (and I was one of them) - get over it.
We must be a sovereign nation again making our own laws and our own judges ruling on them.
LA Times has Trump 3 % up on Mrs Clinton. I'd guess that there's a hefty shy Trump element. Hillary's in serious trouble.
I'm not sure what the polls tell us now about Hillary anymore. The MSM war on Trump is eclipsing Brexit snobbery. And it's not landing much, as those who already think they're biased just see more evidence of it.
Meanwhile, in the real world, 538 (no doubt with biased mathematics) is now giving Clinton an 82% chance of winning, with Arizona about to flip. That would be the icing on the cake.
That would be the same Nate Silver who said Remain would win EU ref. At the moment Clinton probably has the edge but there is still a month of the campaign to go
Silver doesn't know much about UK elections, but in the last 2 presidential elections he has predicted 99 out of 100 state results correctly. I have more faith in his model to predict this election than what's appearing on Plato's Twitter timeline.
Silver also got the last midterms wrong and Trump's supporters bear more resemblance to the voters who won it for Brexit than those who voted for McCain and Romney
Genuine question. Have you seen the demographic breakdown of Trump voters during the primary season? They were indistinguishable from normal Republican primary voters, maybe skewing a little richer than average.
Wrong, Trump voters were poorer and less educated than Jeb Bush, Rubio and Kasich voters
IN general he has higher support than Romney for example amongst non-colleged educated whites. He has a lower support amongst college educated whites (about 50/50 in that category). Essentially no support from blacks and little from Hispanics. Turnout generally is lower amongst non-colleged educated whites and Hispanics, variable amongst blacks and very high amongst college educated whites. If we take college educated whites as neutral to the picture and Hispanics mostly being concentrated in solidly Democrat areas, it comes down to differential turnout. Trump needs to enthuse non-colleged educated whites into voting for him while not motivating blacks (and to a lesser degree Hispanics) to vote against him. Source :538
The whole premise of the article is a load of hystericalist oldthinker deviationism. A vote of 52% to 48% is an overwhelming and decisive mandate for the people of this country to grasp the nettle by the horns and become a Democratic Democracy once again. The Remoaning Remainiac Oldthinkers should learn to recognise that their obscurantist reactionary pro-oblivion anti-democracy fantasies are not worth the candle they're written on.
Not sure I understand these comments but I do most certainly agree. Remoaners lost (and I was one of them) - get over it.
We must be a sovereign nation again making our own laws and our own judges ruling on them.
John displays his skill at splitter dialectics.
The logic is undeniable. Leave won, with the desire for immigration control and to get rid of the Euro-legislature and judicary. That means hard Brexit. Get on with it.
LA Times has Trump 3 % up on Mrs Clinton. I'd guess that there's a hefty shy Trump element. Hillary's in serious trouble.
I get all the liberal huffing about Trump - but they've been doing 1000 variations of it for months.
Professionally speaking, I think they're all wrong. I worked in sales offices in the late 90s where male colleagues talked like this and down the pub, and sports clubs.
It's Sex in the City for women who do the same, and pretend not to when not together and tiddled.
The whole liberal tutting puritanism isn't convincing me one iota. If people like me aren't thinking WTF HOW AWFUL - this is going to result in more shy Trumpers in the polls.
I'm not sure what the polls tell us now about Hillary anymore. The MSM war on Trump is eclipsing Brexit snobbery. And it's not landing much, as those who already think they're biased just see more evidence of it.
Vulgar folk use vulgar bragging hyperbole - shocker.
Why am I not remotely surprised that you do not find Trump's behaviour awful?
Dear oh dear Plato and DiCanio
Plato used to be a 'Blair babe' - says it all really.
Is Trump a bit grubby and disgusting? Maybe. But was Clinton? Nixon wasn't exactly Mr Clean, Johnson was right on the edge of legality, and don't start me on Kennedy. Being a 'good guy' is no guarantee of being a good president. Ford and Carter were absolutely stand up fellas. Not great presidents.
The choice is not great but that's no reason to vote for Trump.
No, but if you could, would you vote for Clinton either? I don't think I could. She's totally corrupt, as is the Clinton foundation, and I'm not sure she hasn't had a lot of help with the FBI. Has to be the same law for the little people as the politicians.
Looking at the article itself for a moment - the margin of victory was gained against a particular backdrop.
Look at the establishment line up that was for Remain: The Government (the office of PM is a serious boost, because the Brits still have some respect for the position itself). The Labour Party, the Lib Dems, the majority of the Lords. The WTO, the IMF, the G20, the Bank of England. The EU commission itself, the BBC, Sky (surprisingly, even though Murdoch was on the other side), Obama. The Civil service and the machine of Government was unleashed on the electorate right up until the 28 day cutoff. Even schoolteachers were preaching against Brexit at our local school, though god alone knows why.
Remain had project fear, and the natural fear of the unknown on their side too. It had big business, the Guardian, Mirror, Indy, Times, FT, and a whole host of well respected overseas news media, plus the New Statesman.
And it still lost.
Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage.
We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
If Don is going to step aside hopefully for Pence..
My best guesstimate;
Don drops out = 10% Then is replaced by pence = 50% Then beats Hillary = 25%
POTUS Pence = 1.25% or 80/1
Which are the current betfair odds. I've laid off my (mostly) accidental Pence green.
I would put drop out probability higher and the probability of being replaced by Pence also higher if he does. I don't think he has a better chance of winning against Clinton however. Say 30% * 75% * 20% = 4.5% or 22/1?
To be fair, she was interviewing a disingenuous charlatan.
I don;t think that's a fair criticism of Hannan. He comes across as a bit over optimistic sometimes, and a bit of an idealist, but he's not like Boris or Gove with their 3350 Million trash. Agree with him or not, I think he believes in what he says.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
LA Times has Trump 3 % up on Mrs Clinton. I'd guess that there's a hefty shy Trump element. Hillary's in serious trouble.
I'm not sure what the polls tell us now about Hillary anymore. The MSM war on Trump
Meanwhile, in the real world, 538 (no doubt with biased mathematics) is now giving Clinton an 82% chance of winning, with Arizona about to flip. That would be the icing on the cake.
That would be the same Nate Silver who said Remain would win EU ref. At the moment Clinton probably has the edge but there is still a month of the campaign to go
Silver doesn't know much about UK elections, but in the last 2 presidential elections he has predicted 99 out of 100 state results correctly. I have more faith in his model to predict this election than what's appearing on Plato's Twitter timeline.
Silver also got the last midtermose who voted for McCain and Romney
Genuine question. Have you seen the demographic breakdown of Trump voters during the primary season? They were indistinguishable from normal Republican primary voters, maybe skewing a little richer than average.
Wrong, Trump voters were poorer and less educated than Jeb Bush, Rubio and Kasich voters
IN general he has higher support than Romney for example amongst non-colleged educated whites. He has a lower support amongst college educated whites (about 50/50 in that category). Essentially no support from blacks and little from Hispanics. Turnout generally is lower amongst non-colleged educated whites and Hispanics, variable amongst blacks and very high amongst college educated whites. If we take college educated whites as neutral to the picture and Hispanics mostly being concentrated in solidly Democrat areas, it comes down to differential turnout. Trump needs to enthuse non-colleged educated whites into voting for him while not motivating blacks (and to a lesser degree Hispanics) to vote against him. Source :538
Some polls have him doing better with blacks than Romney, though agreed he does better with the white working class but worse with white college graduates. If he gets the white working class to vote in higher numbers than usual, like Leave, while white graduates vote at the same level and minority turnout falls with Obama not on the ballot then Trump wins
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
You may be right. Could depend upon whether James Rubin moves back into Hillary's team. He is the husband of British born Christiane Amanpour. He was an Asst Secy of State for Bill.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
If Don is going to step aside hopefully for Pence..
My best guesstimate;
Don drops out = 10% Then is replaced by pence = 50% Then beats Hillary = 25%
POTUS Pence = 1.25% or 80/1
Which are the current betfair odds. I've laid off my (mostly) accidental Pence green.
I would put drop out probability higher and the probability of being replaced by Pence also higher if he does. I don't think he has a better chance of winning against Clinton however. Say 30% * 75% * 20% = 4.5% or 22/1?
Rubs hands with glee. POTUS Pence puts me near £2 000 up!
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
Apart from Trump putting his hand up May's skirt, what would Trade War Trump do for us?
The latest Trump incident does show something interesting. The DNC didn't want Sanders and were effective in ensuring their woman got the gig. RNC didn't want Trump, had loads of dirt to go at and failed miserably to influence the result, while also allowing Trump to blow up the likes of Rubio, who was a big hope for them either now or in the future.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
You may be right. Could depend upon whether James Rubin moves back into Hillary's team. He is the husband of British born Christiane Amanpour. He was an Asst Secy of State for Bill.
She's not only very pro EU, she's pretty obnoxious too. I remember seeing that interview - real "When did you stop beating your wife" type stuff.
She was and is a complete scumbag and utterly unfit to be doing a serious journalism job if she can't keep her own personal views out of the interviews.
Hannan handled it very well and quite rightly pulled her up on here lies.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
Apart from Trump putting his hand up May's skirt, what would Trade War Trump do for us?
Reliant? No, but having an openly hostile American President is unhelpful. It probably wouldn't change much in terms of the actual negotiations for the future, but in the end markets operate on confidence and these things can create unnecessary volatility.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
Apart from Trump putting his hand up May's skirt, what would Trade War Trump do for us?
She would break his hand and poleaxe him with a knee to his groin. An unfair match up.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
Apart from Trump putting his hand up May's skirt, what would Trade War Trump do for us?
A trade deal, his key trade adviser said today he would do a trade deal with the UK first before the EU
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
Apart from Trump putting his hand up May's skirt, what would Trade War Trump do for us?
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
Sorry, I may have mislead by my wording - Liberal Leave was a classic liberal movement, headed by the Flexcit campaigners, the Leave Alliance (Dr Richard North), the ASI, Roland Smith. I was a part of that - we campaigned for a staged Brexit via the EFTA/EEA route, and then to full independence.
We were Liberal in a classical sense - not in any way associated with the Liberal Democrats.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
If Don is going to step aside hopefully for Pence..
My best guesstimate;
Don drops out = 10% Then is replaced by pence = 50% Then beats Hillary = 25%
POTUS Pence = 1.25% or 80/1
Which are the current betfair odds. I've laid off my (mostly) accidental Pence green.
I would put drop out probability higher and the probability of being replaced by Pence also higher if he does. I don't think he has a better chance of winning against Clinton however. Say 30% * 75% * 20% = 4.5% or 22/1?
I think drop out lower, Pence almost certain, win about what you say.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
If Don is going to step aside hopefully for Pence..
My best guesstimate;
Don drops out = 10% Then is replaced by pence = 50% Then beats Hillary = 25%
POTUS Pence = 1.25% or 80/1
Which are the current betfair odds. I've laid off my (mostly) accidental Pence green.
Ballots/legals are going to be a nightmare if Donald does do a runner.
In the summer I put a token £2 at 960 on Pence, as well as later the same stake on King at 730 and Johnson at 1000. I figured that given the standard of the two main candidates there was bound to be a point at which at least one of the three shortened to double digits.
I haven't played this market as well as I'd have liked, but I'm all green.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
No doubt this is why the £ is so stable - now the ROW is expressing it's full confidence in UKPLC ...oh..waitttttttt...
PS Are we now believing the IMF and Lagarde and the other 'experts'. so hard to keep up
The arch strategist move by Clinton would be to narrowly throw the second debate.
That would be very difficult to pull off, but sure, the Democrats don't want Trump to withdraw (or to be withdrawn). They're probably holding back on a lot of stuff that's even worse than what's already out. (Kurt Eichenwald said that Trump was institutionalised in a mental hospital in 1990. That could well be true. Then there are rape allegations, including one concerning a 13-year-old.) But Trump was always either going to win by a landslide or blow up, and he's blowing up.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
I reckon REMAIN would be under 35% now. They have a core of less than 20% europhile certifiable nut jobs.
“Who’s tracking down all the research on Gennifer?” she asked, according to a journalist traveling with her at the time.
The enduring image of Mrs. Clinton from that campaign was a “60 Minutes” interview in which she told the country she was not blindly supporting her husband out of wifely duty. “I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said.
But stand by she did, holding any pain or doubts in check as the campaign battled to keep the Clintons’ political aspirations alive...
But privately, she embraced the Clinton campaign’s aggressive strategy of counterattack: Women who claimed to have had sexual encounters with Mr. Clinton would become targets of digging and discrediting — tactics that women’s rights advocates frequently denounce.
The campaign hired a private investigator with a bare-knuckles reputation who embarked on a mission, as he put it in a memo, to impugn Ms. Flowers’s “character and veracity until she is destroyed beyond all recognition.”
In a pattern that would later be repeated with other women, the investigator’s staff scoured Arkansas and beyond, collecting disparaging accounts from ex-boyfriends, employers and others who claimed to know Ms. Flowers, accounts that the campaign then disseminated to the news media.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
Sorry, I may have mislead by my wording - Liberal Leave was a classic liberal movement, headed by the Flexcit campaigners, the Leave Alliance (Dr Richard North), the ASI, Roland Smith. I was a part of that - we campaigned for a staged Brexit via the EFTA/EEA route, and then to full independence. We were Liberal in a classical sense - not in any way associated with the Liberal Democrats.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
That may come down to how many states have laws against faithless electors and (possibly) how many electoral college voters would be willing to break them. Trump may nominally end up with 200 EC votes after the public ballot has been counted but, until the EC votes are actually cast, that doesn't mean anything.
Wouldn't Pence on some ballots and Trump on others automatically give the election to Clinton? 29 states have laws against "faithless" electoral voters, so it's not like they can automatically switch over to the "right guy."
I just can't see Mike Pence being parachuted in at the last moment and winning 300 electoral votes collectively.
How Hillary's machine would love to deny the people their democratic choice of her vs Trump. She reeks of justified fear as the reckoning looms.
You really are mad. Par for the course for trump supporters tho.
He or she is really quite bonkers, granted. But his/her one liners are quite brilliant from a literary perspective, often stunningly brilliant; for me the most talented writer who ventures onto pbCOM. Maybe s/he is a sock puppet for RodCrosby, the literary side of the mathematical brain. Both should be sectioned, but probably have extraordinarily high IQ's.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
I reckon REMAIN would be under 35% now. They have a core of less than 20% europhile certifiable nut jobs.
It's an interesting hypothetical. I reckon turnout would be lower in a second referendum, as economically cautious Remainers-but-only-just who see that economic meltdown has not in fact occurred stay at home. A few would switch to Leave too, producing a much bigger margin on a significantly lower turnout.
“Who’s tracking down all the research on Gennifer?” she asked, according to a journalist traveling with her at the time.
The enduring image of Mrs. Clinton from that campaign was a “60 Minutes” interview in which she told the country she was not blindly supporting her husband out of wifely duty. “I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said.
But stand by she did, holding any pain or doubts in check as the campaign battled to keep the Clintons’ political aspirations alive...
But privately, she embraced the Clinton campaign’s aggressive strategy of counterattack: Women who claimed to have had sexual encounters with Mr. Clinton would become targets of digging and discrediting — tactics that women’s rights advocates frequently denounce.
The campaign hired a private investigator with a bare-knuckles reputation who embarked on a mission, as he put it in a memo, to impugn Ms. Flowers’s “character and veracity until she is destroyed beyond all recognition.”
In a pattern that would later be repeated with other women, the investigator’s staff scoured Arkansas and beyond, collecting disparaging accounts from ex-boyfriends, employers and others who claimed to know Ms. Flowers, accounts that the campaign then disseminated to the news media.
Question Plato.....Will you be ramping for LePen next year?
Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president * if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
Spot on Mike. This week has been utterly depressing for those of us willing to wish May a fair wind govern her opening 10DS speech. We're certainly not heading toward a success of Brexit now.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
Wouldn't Pence on some ballots and Trump on others automatically give the election to Clinton? 29 states have laws against "faithless" electoral voters, so it's not like they can automatically switch over to the "right guy."
I just can't see Mike Pence being parachuted in at the last moment and winning 300 electoral votes collectively.
No, Clinton still needs 270. If she falls short with Trump and Pence splitting the rest, the House chooses between the three.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
@matt_itvnews: Former GOP candidate @CarlyFiorina "Today I ask Donald Trump to step aside and for the RNC to replace him with Gov. Mike Pence"
Sadly I think it's too late - but any Republican win would be better than Hilary. She will be no friend of Britain I suspect, just as Obama hasn't been. We cdould do with a friendly Whitehouse during the Brexit process, if for nothing more than a feeling of confidence that it might exude.
I thought we were standing strong and free reliant on no-one - if we need a Trump ~Presidency to see us through Brexit god help us all!
We need any help we can get, on a pure realpolitik view a Trump presidency would do a trade deal with the UK earlier than a Clinton presidency which would focus on the EU first
But the Brexiteers reckon we stand proud, free and sovereign without the EU - so why do we need the Donald to hold our hand? Sounds like you are simply a Trump apologist.
I was never a Brexiteer, I voted Remain but we are where we are and we have to get the best environment for the UK
I hate the word Brexiteer....it creates the impression that there's something chivalrous and noble about their negative ideology. And Brexit is an ideology, it's a belief system in something that defies facts and evidence.
Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president * if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
I can't see how "projected" means anything other than "called by the networks on the night".
“Who’s tracking down all the research on Gennifer?” she asked, according to a journalist traveling with her at the time.
The enduring image of Mrs. Clinton from that campaign was a “60 Minutes” interview in which she told the country she was not blindly supporting her husband out of wifely duty. “I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said.
But stand by she did, holding any pain or doubts in check as the campaign battled to keep the Clintons’ political aspirations alive...
But privately, she embraced the Clinton campaign’s aggressive strategy of counterattack: Women who claimed to have had sexual encounters with Mr. Clinton would become targets of digging and discrediting — tactics that women’s rights advocates frequently denounce.
The campaign hired a private investigator with a bare-knuckles reputation who embarked on a mission, as he put it in a memo, to impugn Ms. Flowers’s “character and veracity until she is destroyed beyond all recognition.”
In a pattern that would later be repeated with other women, the investigator’s staff scoured Arkansas and beyond, collecting disparaging accounts from ex-boyfriends, employers and others who claimed to know Ms. Flowers, accounts that the campaign then disseminated to the news media.
Question Plato.....Will you be ramping for LePen next year?
“Who’s tracking down all the research on Gennifer?” she asked, according to a journalist traveling with her at the time.
The enduring image of Mrs. Clinton from that campaign was a “60 Minutes” interview in which she told the country she was not blindly supporting her husband out of wifely duty. “I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said.
But stand by she did, holding any pain or doubts in check as the campaign battled to keep the Clintons’ political aspirations alive...
But privately, she embraced the Clinton campaign’s aggressive strategy of counterattack: Women who claimed to have had sexual encounters with Mr. Clinton would become targets of digging and discrediting — tactics that women’s rights advocates frequently denounce.
The campaign hired a private investigator with a bare-knuckles reputation who embarked on a mission, as he put it in a memo, to impugn Ms. Flowers’s “character and veracity until she is destroyed beyond all recognition.”
In a pattern that would later be repeated with other women, the investigator’s staff scoured Arkansas and beyond, collecting disparaging accounts from ex-boyfriends, employers and others who claimed to know Ms. Flowers, accounts that the campaign then disseminated to the news media.
Question Plato.....Will you be ramping for LePen next year?
Reminder: Betfair's rules for its Next US President market state that
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president * if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
I can't see how "projected" means anything other than "called by the networks on the night".
They set "projected" against "(a)ny subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’", which disregards the "Vote Trump to Elect Pence" case. For whom is such an elector "projected" to vote? It could be interpreted either way.
“Who’s tracking down all the research on Gennifer?” she asked, according to a journalist traveling with her at the time.
The enduring image of Mrs. Clinton from that campaign was a “60 Minutes” interview in which she told the country she was not blindly supporting her husband out of wifely duty. “I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said.
But stand by she did, holding any pain or doubts in check as the campaign battled to keep the Clintons’ political aspirations alive...
But privately, she embraced the Clinton campaign’s aggressive strategy of counterattack: Women who claimed to have had sexual encounters with Mr. Clinton would become targets of digging and discrediting — tactics that women’s rights advocates frequently denounce.
The campaign hired a private investigator with a bare-knuckles reputation who embarked on a mission, as he put it in a memo, to impugn Ms. Flowers’s “character and veracity until she is destroyed beyond all recognition.”
In a pattern that would later be repeated with other women, the investigator’s staff scoured Arkansas and beyond, collecting disparaging accounts from ex-boyfriends, employers and others who claimed to know Ms. Flowers, accounts that the campaign then disseminated to the news media.
Question Plato.....Will you be ramping for LePen next year?
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump.
?
Assuming you mean "Pence" - isn't it a bit circular to say Trump voters are still supporting Trump? Surely the question is how many Trump voters are left now.
Even based on polls conducted before the sexual assault stuff, Nate Silver's model is showing Trump's probability of winning down to 18%. Barring a Clinton catastrophe, he's not going to win now.
......... Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage. We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
There were several Lib Dems at the top of the REMAIN campaign already. More of them would have helped LEAVE.
I do wonder how many remainers would really change their mind now that the blizzard of bullshit has subsided (though not cleared) from the most rabid of remain outlets.
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
No doubt this is why the £ is so stable - now the ROW is expressing it's full confidence in UKPLC ...oh..waitttttttt...
PS Are we now believing the IMF and Lagarde and the other 'experts'. so hard to keep up
I think we can take it for granted that leavers have little faith in the musings of economic forecasters, something that seems vindicated already.
It was the Remain contingent who seem to have swallowed it.
"But..but..but the experts, the experts, will nobody listen to the experts?" was an almost constant refrain on here.
I wonder how many of the 16m people who voted Remain would change their mind when presented with a before and after comparison? They would have to be supremely daft to swallow it all again.
In any case snap polls are showing Trump voters want him to stay in rather than being replaced by Trump.
?
Assuming you mean "Pence" - isn't it a bit circular to say Trump voters are still supporting Trump? Surely the question is how many Trump voters are left now.
Even based on polls conducted before the sexual assault stuff, Nate Silver's model is showing Trump's probability of winning down to 18%. Barring a Clinton catastrophe, he's not going to win now.
Who cares what Nate Silver says, he is wrong half the time anyway. Fox last night had Hillary ahead by just 2% in a 4 way race
Comments
We must be a sovereign nation again making our own laws and our own judges ruling on them.
Don drops out = 10%
Then is replaced by pence = 50%
Then beats Hillary = 25%
POTUS Pence = 1.25% or 80/1
Which are the current betfair odds. I've laid off my (mostly) accidental Pence green.
Ballots/legals are going to be a nightmare if Donald does do a runner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZsKEHwBld0
The logic is undeniable. Leave won, with the desire for immigration control and to get rid of the Euro-legislature and judicary. That means hard Brexit. Get on with it.
Seriously, 99% don't have a vote on here - look at the ammunition launched by both sides
https://t.co/PjwqUGLkGa
Look at the establishment line up that was for Remain: The Government (the office of PM is a serious boost, because the Brits still have some respect for the position itself). The Labour Party, the Lib Dems, the majority of the Lords. The WTO, the IMF, the G20, the Bank of England. The EU commission itself, the BBC, Sky (surprisingly, even though Murdoch was on the other side), Obama. The Civil service and the machine of Government was unleashed on the electorate right up until the 28 day cutoff. Even schoolteachers were preaching against Brexit at our local school, though god alone knows why.
Remain had project fear, and the natural fear of the unknown on their side too. It had big business, the Guardian, Mirror, Indy, Times, FT, and a whole host of well respected overseas news media, plus the New Statesman.
And it still lost.
Now imagine if that campaign had been simply between say - Liberal Leave and the Official Remain campaign, with no outside institutional actors and fairly even press coverage.
We would be in a much better place now. And this thread would never have been written.
Hannan handled it very well and quite rightly pulled her up on here lies.
https://twitter.com/BBCJamesCook/status/784800385357615104
We were Liberal in a classical sense - not in any way associated with the Liberal Democrats.
I haven't played this market as well as I'd have liked, but I'm all green.
My pre-race piece is up here: http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/japan-pre-race-2016.html
Just hope I get up in time for the start. Stupid time zones...
Lagarde and her IMF crew now say we will be the fastest growing economy in the G7. How many economically fearful remainers would have voted leave had they been told that before 23rd June?
The chaos in the Republicans by such a late stage withdrawal would be hilariously shambolic.
* Trump withdraws
* The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states
* The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto
* The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100
* The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100
* The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate
* The 12th amendment comes into play
* The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence
* The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
Trump's debate preparation is not going well!
PS Are we now believing the IMF and Lagarde and the other 'experts'. so hard to keep up
Alex HunterMarcus Rashford England's most dangerous player again.http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/10/03/us/politics/hillary-bill-clinton-women.html?_r=0&referer=
“Who’s tracking down all the research on Gennifer?” she asked, according to a journalist traveling with her at the time.
The enduring image of Mrs. Clinton from that campaign was a “60 Minutes” interview in which she told the country she was not blindly supporting her husband out of wifely duty. “I’m not sitting here, some little woman standing by my man like Tammy Wynette,” she said.
But stand by she did, holding any pain or doubts in check as the campaign battled to keep the Clintons’ political aspirations alive...
But privately, she embraced the Clinton campaign’s aggressive strategy of counterattack: Women who claimed to have had sexual encounters with Mr. Clinton would become targets of digging and discrediting — tactics that women’s rights advocates frequently denounce.
The campaign hired a private investigator with a bare-knuckles reputation who embarked on a mission, as he put it in a memo, to impugn Ms. Flowers’s “character and veracity until she is destroyed beyond all recognition.”
In a pattern that would later be repeated with other women, the investigator’s staff scoured Arkansas and beyond, collecting disparaging accounts from ex-boyfriends, employers and others who claimed to know Ms. Flowers, accounts that the campaign then disseminated to the news media.
I will not vote for Donald Trump. Read my statement here
This is the incumbunt New Hampshire Senator up for re-election. Before this she said "absolutley" Trump is a role model for children.
http://hurryupharry.org/2016/10/07/abdul-qadir-jilani-and-killing-for-allah/
On this occasion, nada, zilch, feck all.
I just can't see Mike Pence being parachuted in at the last moment and winning 300 electoral votes collectively.
* it's which candidate has a majority of projected votes in the EC - there's obviously scope for interpretation here, and depending on the interpretation this person may find that they don't become president
* if nobody wins such a majority, then it's who gets chosen by the procedures laid down in the 12th amendment
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/784759037170634752
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/italy/8286347/Silvio-Berlusconi-second-under-age-girl-in-bunga-bunga-scandal.html
toddstarnes – Verified account @toddstarnes
Dr. Ben Carson tells @FoxNews more Trump revelations are coming.
--
No sh*t, Sherlock.
Had a child with his mistress/maid.
Assuming you mean "Pence" - isn't it a bit circular to say Trump voters are still supporting Trump? Surely the question is how many Trump voters are left now.
Even based on polls conducted before the sexual assault stuff, Nate Silver's model is showing Trump's probability of winning down to 18%. Barring a Clinton catastrophe, he's not going to win now.
It was the Remain contingent who seem to have swallowed it.
"But..but..but the experts, the experts, will nobody listen to the experts?" was an almost constant refrain on here.
I wonder how many of the 16m people who voted Remain would change their mind when presented with a before and after comparison? They would have to be supremely daft to swallow it all again.