can someone remind me what happened last time a clinton faced a republican nominee abandoned by the party?
Trump has no GOTV in the swing states other than the RNC ones. If they are making moves to not get out early voting for him and that carrys on for the next month, its over im afraid on a practical level. (well, not afraid, i want the racist, rapey prick to be humiliated)
Spot on Mike. This week has been utterly depressing for those of us willing to wish May a fair wind govern her opening 10DS speech. We're certainly not heading toward a success of Brexit now.
What do you base this on?
Honestly, some people seem to have short memories.
OK unless there are any major surprises to come - and I suppose there could be. What about the Senate:
"Democrats currently have a 57 percent chance of winning a Senate majority according to our polls-plus forecast and a 56 percent chance in polls-only. Those numbers have been fairly consistent since the conventions. In our polls-plus forecast, for instance, Democratic chances have never dropped below 52 percent and have never risen above 73 percent.1 To control the Senate, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats (they hold 46 seats now) if Hillary Clinton wins the presidency or five seats if Donald Trump wins. Right now, they have at least a 75 percent chance of winning currently Republican seats in Illinois and Wisconsin. The bigger question is whether they can win any three of the following seven seats: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania." 538
they have 2 choices: stick with trump and alienate non trump voters, or disown him and alienate trump voters.
can someone remind me what happened last time a clinton faced a republican nominee abandoned by the party?
Trump has no GOTV in the swing states other than the RNC ones. If they are making moves to not get out early voting for him and that carrys on for the next month, its over im afraid on a practical level. (well, not afraid, i want the racist, rapey prick to be humiliated)
Bob Dole lost by 7 points in 1996, GOP kept control of Congress.
Trump won't be as lucky to lose by 7 as things stand.
I don't get these calls for Trump to stand aside (by the media, mainly, it seems). It's an election: if you don't like him, you vote for the other guy. That's how it works. It's called democracy.
More media bollocks.
I didn't realise so many Republican congressmen, senators and governors worked for the media
Every time a Republican politician comes out against Trump it probably helps his chances a bit.
Presidential candidates need the down ticket races to help them to win, to do the nitty gritty ground game work.
So when the candidates do phone banking and events, they do stuff for the Presidential candidates, to help campaign and GOTV.
Basically the Governors, Congressmen/Women, and Senators are effectively telling Trump, you're on your own, we don't want to be associated with you.
Thank you.
In British terms, it is like labour general election candidates not mentioning Jeremy Corbyn is their leader on their literature or during the campaign events.
Labour MPs already voted against Corbyn en masse, the Labour membership said sod you too!!
It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
JRM is basically correct about Carney.
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.
I'd be interested in hearing how raising interest rates will cause inflation to normalise. I assume, in this context, that normalise is, at least in the context of interest rates, a synonym for rise. That's before we move on to normalise and inflation.
Spot on Mike. This week has been utterly depressing for those of us willing to wish May a fair wind govern her opening 10DS speech. We're certainly not heading toward a success of Brexit now.
What do you base this on?
Honestly, some people seem to have short memories.
Some people still rage against the prospect of the UK being self-governing.
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this. RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday. If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he does
Of course they can, it will require a legal interpretation of the rules, but it can be done.
The difference between early August and now is that Trump has lost the support of the GOP voters, and it's proven that he is terrible with debates.
They couldn't move him out in August because the GOP voters still had faith in him, not anymore.
Nope, wrong on both counts. Trump is GOP nominee and cannot be removed unless he resigns. He remains competitive in the polls and as tonight's Luntz poll shows his supporters are fully behind him
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he puts women down in public, even to his own major disadvantage, for being obese or for 'bleeding out of their wherevers', for being "pigs" and "dogs", or how he has talked in a sexual way about his daughter. If he's still in the race by the time of the debate, he's going to blow up either at the debate itself or within a short time afterwards. He has already called Hillary Clinton "the devil". I wouldn't be at all surprised if he soon calls her a slob, a lesbian, ugly, a woman who can't satisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again now
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow him
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleader
It's a Carney barney as Jacob Rees-Mogg takes on Bank of England Guv
Isn't he foreign. Put him on Ze list
JRM is basically correct about Carney.
The guy was woefully inaccurate about employment and unemployment in 2013/2014, he signalled rate rises that never materialised in 2014/2015 and then he pushed an unnecessary rate cut after the referendum vote.
Interest rates and inflation need to normalise. Emergency measures have morphed into a norm and stayed in place long after they should have ceased. Carney is one of the culprits.
I'd be interested in hearing how raising interest rates will cause inflation to normalise.
Trump withdraws Rubio is his replacement Cromwell returns to the forum
I would expect that the RNC would move Pence up to the top of the ticket, as to the new VP Trump may want to negotiate it as part of his resignation deal.
Only way I can see Trump getting it is if Clinton collapses during one of the remaining debates or something and has to pull out of the race on health grounds. But even then a replacement Dem candidate (not sure what the process is) would probably still beat Trump who looks like he's fatally wounded.
This video might not get voters to flock to Hilary as she's not exactly loved either but it may stop people who have always voted republican deciding to sit this one out.
I told people on PB in the very early hours of the morning about all of this. RobD in particular (my sources are always good).
I said Trump has until Monday to resign on his own terms and get a golden parachute.
Monday? Thats after the debate. Popcorn time!
Of course they will wait to see how the debate goes, that's why they will wait until Monday. If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
TOO LATE!!!!! Trump is nominee, nominated at the convention, it is his call to resign, he ain't, the RNC can do sod all about it unless he does
Of course they can, it will require a legal interpretation of the rules, but it can be done.
The difference between early August and now is that Trump has lost the support of the GOP voters, and it's proven that he is terrible with debates.
They couldn't move him out in August because the GOP voters still had faith in him, not anymore.
Nope, wrong on both counts. Trump is GOP nominee and cannot be removed unless he resigns. He remains competitive in the polls and as tonight's Luntz poll shows his supporters are fully behind him
Are you claiming the luntz Twitter poll is a scientific poll?
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again now
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow him
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleader
I tried to write a limerick about Luntz. Sadly, nothing rhymes.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
Indeed.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth 2) Living within their means 3) Increasing their savings ratio
You are as bad as Corbynites who refuse to acknowledge that he is a poor candidate and would rather blame his Parliamentary colleagues for his dismal poll ratings.
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
How much spittle did you froth on your keyboard while writing that ?
YOU are the person who is ideologically obsessed and that's why you're raving about 99.99%s and future inevitabilities.
Now you might think that the UK having had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years is irrelevant or inconvenient but the fact remains that the UK has had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
Indeed.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth 2) Living within their means 3) Increasing their savings ratio
You are as bad as Corbynites who refuse to acknowledge that he is a poor candidate and would rather blame his Parliamentary colleagues for his dismal poll ratings.
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.
We are up a brown creek then, May has chucked prudence out the window.
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again now
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow him
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleader
I tried to write a limerick about Luntz. Sadly, nothing rhymes.
Not as accurate as he might be. If one is e.e.cummins with a tin ear.
Actually, I think it 's driven by the reason that Robert Smithson gave - a big current account deficit. Which would be case inside or outside the EU. Brexit simply brought it to a head.
Indeed.
And its better that we deal with the fundamental imbalances with the UK economy now that to continue to pretend that they don't exist.
Anyone who wants a higher sterling exchange rate should look to make their own contribution to making that happen by:
1) Creating more wealth 2) Living within their means 3) Increasing their savings ratio
You are as bad as Corbynites who refuse to acknowledge that he is a poor candidate and would rather blame his Parliamentary colleagues for his dismal poll ratings.
99.99% of economists are saying that the collapse in the exchange rate reflects the long term state of the UK economy post Brexit. Of course they could all be wrong.
When Brexit fails, which it will do inevitably, who will you blame? Remainers for telling you so, foreigners, the EU for not giving us favourable terms. You certainly will not blame Brexit because you are ideologically wedded to the purity of it all much like Corbynites who refuse to believe there cannot be anything wrong with their man.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.
We are up a brown creek then, May has chucked prudence out the window.
Prudence was sold over a decade ago and the proceeds used to buy more imported tat.
And going out the window is the best option when the room is on fire.
The landing might hurt but there's more of a chance than staying inside.
@AshleyRParker: This morning, Pence called Trump and told him he had to handle the next 48 hours alone. He didn't think he'd be an effective surrogate.
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
If Trump voters are at war with the Republican Party, what does that do to the House and Senate?
Most of the polls show Trump is a drag on the down ballot candidates, many have made the calculation they can lose a few hardcore Trump supporters to gain the support of moderate Dems and independents, especially incumbunt Repub candidates.
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
@AshleyRParker: This morning, Pence called Trump and told him he had to handle the next 48 hours alone. He didn't think he'd be an effective surrogate.
Trump will be the nominee on election day, he wants to be so barring death that's it.
The scenario that is likely is that the RNC removes their support, Pence steps down and is replaced by someone else, the RNC pile money into the tight senate races "to stop Clinton from implementing her policies" and 'do a Dole' on the presidential race.
....and it's minuscule, not mini (not having read the thread I presume that's already been done to death, though).
* Trump withdraws * The RNC chooses Pence as a replacement, but only gets him onto the ballots in some states * The RNC chooses Ryan, say, as a replacement VP candidate, and ditto * The presidential result is Clinton 238, Trump 200, Pence 100 * The VP result is Kaine 238, Pence 200, Ryan 100 * The Republicans win majorities in House and Senate * The 12th amendment comes into play * The House must give the presidency to one of the three candidates with the most electoral votes; they choose Pence * The Senate must give the vice-presidency to one of the two VP candidates with the most electoral votes - who are they going to choose?
I reckon Trump will withdraw. The guy is mentally ill and he has a massive problem in the area of women. It's not reducible to being a big swinging dick of a billionaire a*sehole who's obsessed with sex, a kind of New York Berlusconi. That doesn't explain how he tisfy her husband, a misogynist, or even a rapist.
They are the same voters who voted for him in the primaries and would vote for him again now
And the weighting and control? Which you've noticebly evaded.
Luntz is a relative moderate, it is not all nutjobs who follow him
And the weighting and control. Which you've noticeably evaded. Again.
9000 voted, more than most polls. Trump clearly won the primaries, his supporters are sticking by him. Luntz has followers across the GOP, he is no Trump cheerleader
I tried to write a limerick about Luntz. Sadly, nothing rhymes.
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
On topic, a victory is a victory. The course is set until such point as sufficient numbers of the Brepenitent have paraded through the streets scourging themselves.
That will not happen in the near term, so the drama will continue to unfold.
Comments
If it goes as badly as suspected he will be kicked out.
Of course if the RNC makes a request to postpone the debate, then that means they won't wait for the debate to kick him out.
Trump has no GOTV in the swing states other than the RNC ones. If they are making moves to not get out early voting for him and that carrys on for the next month, its over im afraid on a practical level. (well, not afraid, i want the racist, rapey prick to be humiliated)
They are in a hurry.
Honestly, some people seem to have short memories.
doesnt look good for the GOP either way
Trump won't be as lucky to lose by 7 as things stand.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
I don't know how much the US resembles the UK, but one month out from most recent elections the perceived wisdom has been wrong over here.
The difference between early August and now is that Trump has lost the support of the GOP voters, and it's proven that he is terrible with debates.
They couldn't move him out in August because the GOP voters still had faith in him, not anymore.
'We'll only get elected once the discharge stops.'
Rubio is his replacement
Cromwell returns to the forum
As I said the only option left for Trump is to negotiate his resignation terms, before the point he is kicked out.
Sort like Napoleon exiled to Elba.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/784839407295692800
https://twitter.com/reaIDonaldTrump/status/784763473603551234
This video might not get voters to flock to Hilary as she's not exactly loved either but it may stop people who have always voted republican deciding to sit this one out.
YOU are the person who is ideologically obsessed and that's why you're raving about 99.99%s and future inevitabilities.
Now you might think that the UK having had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years is irrelevant or inconvenient but the fact remains that the UK has had a current account deficit of almost £300bn during the last three years.
And a consequence is that Sterling is going to fall in value until the economy becomes more balanced either through the UK increasing its wealth creation and/or living within its means.
https://twitter.com/thesundaysport/status/784838007329284096
And while you're at it, the effects of government tax policy on inflation.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/784840992734064641
SPECTRE was the finest Bond movie ever, FACT.
And going out the window is the best option when the room is on fire.
The landing might hurt but there's more of a chance than staying inside.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpGRoOTqkGk
They have already agreed his replacements:
https://twitter.com/costareports/status/784819461719293952
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/784841297228161024
Trump is behaving like Napoleon at Fontainebleau or Nixon on August 1st of 1974, shouting he won't resign, but if he won't resign he will be escorted out anyway.
He can only negotiate his terms of resignation and he has days to do it, nothing else.
Another Trump bombshell from @KFILE: Trump gave Howard Stern green light to call daughter Ivanka a "piece of ass" Most of the polls show Trump is a drag on the down ballot candidates, many have made the calculation they can lose a few hardcore Trump supporters to gain the support of moderate Dems and independents, especially incumbunt Repub candidates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995
We need a thread entitled "why remainers are psychologically unable to accept the result of the referendum"
Scotland 0 - Lithuania 1
And Trump just lost Alabama:
https://twitter.com/lyman_brian/status/784824564903735296
Nixon recognized that it was over when he lost George Wallace.
The scenario that is likely is that the RNC removes their support, Pence steps down and is replaced by someone else, the RNC pile money into the tight senate races "to stop Clinton from implementing her policies" and 'do a Dole' on the presidential race.
....and it's minuscule, not mini (not having read the thread I presume that's already been done to death, though).
That will not happen in the near term, so the drama will continue to unfold.
Senior House GOP official tells me: "THE DAM HAS BROKEN"
Rank-and-file firing at will
Leadership talking, will find consensus tonight
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