politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

Speedy said:

Erdogan making a statement on CNN Turk right now.

Any idea what he is saying?

MarcKlein said:

https://twitter.com/jotabe/status/754064826033381377

Wow, he must be in trouble if he has to do it through an iPhone.

RobD said:

Speedy said:

Erdogan making a statement on CNN Turk right now.

Any idea what he is saying?

A rude rhyme involving three doors Boris Johnson and a goat?

RobD said:

Chameleon said:

Anchor on Turkish National TV saying that secular system needs to be restored.

Was the anchor just installed, or are they showing their colours?

I for one welcome our new insect overlords Peace Council

Chameleon said:

When you're having to say that you're still in control via someone holding up a phone with you on FaceTime, You know that you really aren't.

Yeah! Perhaps a bad move to do that, should have had audio only.

kle4 said:

I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

Fun fact: that game was created by Demis Hassabis, who went on to create Deep Mind, which was sold to Google for a gazillion dollars.

WTF WTF WTF

I go out for the evening thinking, oh well things are calming down at last, and discover there has been a military coup in Turkey when I get back.

What a month.

RobD said:

MarcKlein said:

https://twitter.com/jotabe/status/754064826033381377

Wow, he must be in trouble if he has to do it through an iPhone.

Rubbish, it's the way to do it. Reaching out to the yoof an that.

John_M said:

kle4 said:

I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.

Atatürk was a genuinely remarkable man. It's a shame the UK history curriculum is so narrow (though I hear its being improved). The late Ottoman empire was a basket case. He was a truly modern leader. Check him out. Considering his background...amazing.

Like a drink as well so obviously a good lad, though it was the death of him.

Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.

Erdogan must be toast if he has to rely on a smartphone to give an interview.

Erdogan's statement on CNN Turk is through a mobile phone.
He calls for a popular uprising against the coup plotters and blames the Gulen network.

The military meanwhile have proclaimed that the "committee for peace in the country" will govern.

If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

anotherDave said:

John_M said:

Chameleon said:

kle4 said:

Chameleon said:

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?

That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.

Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.

I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?

Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.

One of the most influential papers I ever read was by a CIA analyst. He pointed out that Western intelligence agencies had failed to predict every important event in modern history, from the Cuban missile crisis through the fall of the Shah through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...all the way to the fall of the Soviet Union. He then proceeded to analyse why we'd had this collective serial failure.

What was the conclusion?

Some parts were classified, but the overall thrust was that the intelligence processing and governance structures act as a kind of tacit corporate groupthink.

If you think about any seminal historical event, at the outset they all seem very unlikely. Therefore, persuasive cases made by analysts from raw intelligence are filtered, downgraded and hedged until any signal is lost in the bureaucratic noise.

As we saw in the Aldrich Ames case, intelligence agencies (large bureaucracies all) don't necessarily win plaudits for being right but do get hammered for being wrong. Therefore there are powerful incentives for making very modest, heavily caveated predictions.

TL:DR You get what you measure.

A LOT of UK holidaymakers are going to be very upset - especially as:- (to give an example)

You are not covered for claims arising out of;
1. loss or damage directly or indirectly occasioned by, happening through or in consequence of war, invasion, acts of foreign enemies, terrorism, hostilities (whether war be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection, military or usurped power or confiscation or
nationalisation, or requisition or destruction of or damage to property by or under the order of any government or public or local authority. This is not applicable, however, in respect of claims under section 2 - emergency medical expenses arising through terrorism other than losses arising from nuclear, chemical and biological exposures unless you planned to travel to areas that were publicly known to be affected or threatened by such risks (please see general condition 3).

will often appear in travel insurance policies.

Yay Tascim Square, so many happy memories

Pulpstar said:

Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?

Thinking out loud.

There wouldn't be a coup.

If it was clear that he had lost support among the people, then the Queen would dismiss him & appoint the Tory leader as the PM, and there would be fresh elections which the new PM would presumably win.

I should realllly be doing some work.......... but events!

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

We need an abdication crisis to calm things down

Chameleon said:

If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

It occurred on a Friday after the markets closed. Short of a holiday weekend is there any less of a destabilizing time for a coup?

Pulpstar said:

Damascus celebrating. No surprise there I guess

Dictators in the Middle East are back in fashion.

You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

Someone should make a video game simulating Tory and Labour leadership contests. Obviously the former would be more fun.

The latter, surely?

Personally, that'd be such a grand strategy mess, I'd be no good at it though (Crusader Kings 2, far too intimidating). Even simple ones too hard for me, I have no patience - I played Democracy 3 and set about trying to create a populist revolutionary government and ended up with the country in ruins and an abrupt 'you got assassinated' screen after like 6 months go game time. TSE would do better.

This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.

Speedy said:

Pulpstar said:

Damascus celebrating. No surprise there I guess

Dictators in the Middle East are back in fashion.

Well, they kept terrible things off western papers at least.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

We need an abdication crisis to calm things down

Unlucky 13th PM...?

vik said:

Pulpstar said:

Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?

Thinking out loud.

There wouldn't be a coup.

If it was clear that he had lost support among the people, then the Queen would dismiss him & appoint the Tory leader as the PM, and there would be fresh elections which the new PM would presumably win.

Mind you, the PLP must be looking on with some envy.

BigIan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

We need an abdication crisis to calm things down

Unlucky 13th PM...?

vik said:

Pulpstar said:

Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?

Thinking out loud.

There wouldn't be a coup.

If it was clear that he had lost support among the people, then the Queen would dismiss him & appoint the Tory leader as the PM, and there would be fresh elections which the new PM would presumably win.

Mind you, the PLP must be looking on with some envy.

Better May than Leadsom (or Corbyn)!

viewcode said:

Chameleon said:

If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.

Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.

Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.

wasd said:

Chameleon said:

If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

It occurred on a Friday after the markets closed. Short of a holiday weekend is there any less of a destabilizing time for a coup?

Nope. Though I am very nervous about the aftershocks of this, re Russia, popular support for Erodgan and the Kurds.

Paul_Bedfordshire said:

Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.

Why? Having left the EU, we'll no longer have a veto on Turkey joining. But we'll still need to allow freedom of movement if we want to remain in the single market.

Chameleon said:

If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

Does he have any reason to support Erdogan? I know he doesn't exactly like the West removing leaders it doesn't like.....

The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.

SimonStClare said:

AndyJS said:

What a three weeks.

Can’t remember Project fear mentioning this…

Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.

Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

We need an abdication crisis to calm things down

Thank goodness Her Majesty has no interest in abdications - some things need to be stable!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chameleon said:

This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.

They have taken a massive amount of land in Syria and Iraq now.

The Kurds have decided they don't want their own state right now.

To be fair, they basically already have one. The decision is just not to officially pronounce it

SouthamObserver said:

If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.

A very smart comment, Southam.

Speedy said:

The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.

Followed swiftly by a Russian invasion from east and west with the Turkish state reduced to a rump around Ankara and the Ecumenical Patriach installed in Hagia Sophia?

Junior ministers have been announced btw. As if anyone cares - we're all watching Game of Thrones Live.

The people are cheering the military on. Erdogan is done.

CHP - main op party have just released a statement saying that they standby democracy.

John_M said:

anotherDave said:

John_M said:

Chameleon said:

kle4 said:

Chameleon said:

kle4 said:

Speedy said:

RobD said:

WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?

That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.

Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.

I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?

Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.

One of the most influential papers I ever read was by a CIA analyst. He pointed out that Western intelligence agencies had failed to predict every important event in modern history, from the Cuban missile crisis through the fall of the Shah through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...all the way to the fall of the Soviet Union. He then proceeded to analyse why we'd had this collective serial failure.

What was the conclusion?

Some parts were classified, but the overall thrust was that the intelligence processing and governance structures act as a kind of tacit corporate groupthink.

If you think about any seminal historical event, at the outset they all seem very unlikely. Therefore, persuasive cases made by analysts from raw intelligence are filtered, downgraded and hedged until any signal is lost in the bureaucratic noise.

As we saw in the Aldrich Ames case, intelligence agencies (large bureaucracies all) don't necessarily win plaudits for being right but do get hammered for being wrong. Therefore there are powerful incentives for making very modest, heavily caveated predictions.

TL:DR You get what you measure.

Mr M, I think I would agree with that, at least at the strategic level. I'd also add a tendency for those at the top of the intelligence tree to be mindful of what their political masters want to hear (e.g the JIC in 2002).

viewcode said:

MyBurningEars said:

Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.

The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...

Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981

Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986

Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986

So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)

Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)

Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
Greece joined EEC: 1981

Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
Portugal joined EEC: 1986

Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
Rule of Franco ended: 1975
Spain joined EEC: 1986

So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...

67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.

kle4 said:

tlg86 said:

kle4 said:

I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

Someone should make a video game simulating Tory and Labour leadership contests. Obviously the former would be more fun.

The latter, surely?

Personally, that'd be such a grand strategy mess, I'd be no good at it though (Crusader Kings 2, far too intimidating). Even simple ones too hard for me, I have no patience - I played Democracy 3 and set about trying to create a populist revolutionary government and ended up with the country in ruins and an abrupt 'you got assassinated' screen after like 6 months go game time. TSE would do better.

I was thinking the Labour one would continually end in failure.

I can the new iPhone ad..including the lines...

Facetime - For when you are locked in a cupboard because of a military coup and need to address the nation....

nunu said:

SimonStClare said:

AndyJS said:

What a three weeks.

Can’t remember Project fear mentioning this…

Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.

Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.

Weak? I'd imagine that EU nations, at least the UK and France are providing intelligence to the plotters.

Chameleon said:

If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

It sounds from Lavrov that the Russians are taking a similar line to the Americans, remember they aren't a fan of Erdogan either...

God, he looks so weak with the iPhone footage.

marke09 said:

... Ros Altmann ...[has] left the government.

Good. She never had the courtesy to reply to my letter about auto-enrolment.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I can the new iPhone ad..including the lines...

Facetime - For when you are locked in a cupboard because of a military coup and need to address the nation....

"Shot on an iPhone 6 by Redec, Bodrum"

AndyJS said:

Speedy said:

The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.

Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.

Are there significant differences of outlook between western and eastern Turkey?