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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    Mike Dammann
    @firetown

    Turkish intel agency spokesman says the coup attempt is almost being suppressed, it will be all over until morning
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Two "presumably" military jets flying over the sky reporter.

    Whose else could they be? :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135

    kle4 said:

    Horrible and chaotic though such events can be, I have a strange interest in seeing how the headlines change, from subtle to extreme. A few minutes ago the BBC main page had a story about Turkey PM decrying 'illegal action' or something along those lines, now it's army group 'takes control of turkey'.

    To be fair to the beeb it seems everyone is choosing their words carefully.
    Oh, changing descriptions in fast moving events is perfectly justified. don't get me wrong, as is cautious wording. It's funniest on nakedly political things though, like 'wields spending cuts axe' becoming 'unveils austerity measures' or something.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339

    Why did Sky get rid of Tim Marshall? He was an brilliant when it came to breaking news like this.

    Also, I bet Joey Jones is well pissed. Only just got his sat down at his desk spinning for Osborne and I presume he will get the chop like his boss.

    Joey Jones was/is working for Theresa May
    You are right. I have no idea why I thought he was spinning for Osborne. Well he has hit the golden lotto ticket there.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Advice for tourists, head for the cash machines.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MarcKlein said:
    I wish people knew how to spell fazed these days. Standards are slipping.
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    Why did Sky get rid of Tim Marshall? He was an brilliant when it came to breaking news like this.

    Also, I bet Joey Jones is well pissed. Only just got his sat down at his desk spinning for Osborne and I presume he will get the chop like his boss.

    Tim is very good. problem for Sky is AFAIK they are running a £20m cost and dont have the BBC resources.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited July 2016
    marke09 said:


    Mike Dammann
    @firetown

    Turkish intel agency spokesman says the coup attempt is almost being suppressed, it will be all over until morning

    Erdogan's brother runs or ran the Turkish intelligence agency, it may not e a trustworthy source.
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    marke09 said:


    Mike Dammann
    @firetown

    Turkish intel agency spokesman says the coup attempt is almost being suppressed, it will be all over until morning

    Intel - they will have had their chips then.
    groan.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016

    Why did Sky get rid of Tim Marshall? He was an brilliant when it came to breaking news like this.

    Also, I bet Joey Jones is well pissed. Only just got his sat down at his desk spinning for Osborne and I presume he will get the chop like his boss.

    He's still doing the business on Twitter:

    https://twitter.com/itwitius?lang=en-gb

    https://twitter.com/Itwitius/status/754046832452468736?lang=en-gb
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,339
    marke09 said:


    Mike Dammann
    @firetown

    Turkish intel agency spokesman says the coup attempt is almost being suppressed, it will be all over until morning

    Who is that guy? And why should we take any notice of him?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited July 2016
    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    marke09 said:


    Mike Dammann
    @firetown

    Turkish intel agency spokesman says the coup attempt is almost being suppressed, it will be all over until morning

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/yfAeMtcURg0/hqdefault.jpg
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    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success.

    Brexit will be. Have faith.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    FWIW given Turkey's military capabilities and geographical location I would be shocked if US/UK/France or Russia were not involved in aiding the coup.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
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    MaxPB said:

    marke09 said:


    Mike Dammann
    @firetown

    Turkish intel agency spokesman says the coup attempt is almost being suppressed, it will be all over until morning

    Erdogan's brother runs or ran the Turkish intelligence agency, it may not e a trustworthy source.
    thanks
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    eekeek Posts: 25,131
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    In Bodrum supposedly...
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,954
    edited July 2016
    How long before we send Boris and Dr Fox over to do a trade deal with the Junta? :smiley:
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A pity Erdogan is probably going to spend the rest of his days in a tawdry Saudi Arabian mansion rather than a Turkish jail.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,209
    This week they've changed the access policy in the work wifi to specifically disallow betting sites, so I can't connect my lappy to this site in work hours, Arse. It's probably Brexit... :)

    Anyhoo, my access is restricted and suddenly the news goes nonlinear. Multiple terrorist attacks in France, military coup in Turkey, Plissken flying the Gulf-fire into Leningrad. If I don't log in tomorrow, the news will involve the phrase "you now have two minutes to reach minimum safe distance"
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    edited July 2016
    Note the zero support for Erdogan in Kerry's and Lavarov's statements so far ?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yay! — Tim Marshall on Sky News.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Chameleon said:

    FWIW given Turkey's military capabilities and geographical location I would be shocked if US/UK/France or Russia were not involved in aiding the coup.

    Wut? Turkey has an army three times larger than the UK, and larger than the UK, US (Europe) and French forces combined. They don't need us. If they want to they can put close to a million men into the field.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    "Martial law has been imposed" and it will be a "Peace Council" running the country.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    The Sky analyst saying it looks like a success as well.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    John Kerry very neutral there, not even pretending to sound concerned. Erdogan has basically zero allies in the international arena. He's disliked by everyone in Europe, Russia, and the US. His only allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia at the moment I guess?

    I'm not normally one for conspiracies but this seems like a coup that will be very quickly approved by the international community if it succeeds (and they wouldn't launch it if they weren't likely to succeed)
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    Sky News now interviewing Tim Marshall! I bet they wish they'd never let him go.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
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    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    That shows how very little you understand about Turkish Politics...
    I'm talking about UK politics. Nobody would have believed Turkey was about the join the EU if it was in the middle of a coup.
    It's still unlikely, I said it as well. Though if this a secular coup it is probably more likely. I'd venture that Brexit may have been one of the triggers.
    A very minor one, surely. What makes you think Brexit might have had any influence?
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Turkey takes Al Jazeera off the air. Well that's a relief. ;)
    https://twitter.com/AJENews/status/754060744677847040
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    John_M said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW given Turkey's military capabilities and geographical location I would be shocked if US/UK/France or Russia were not involved in aiding the coup.

    Wut? Turkey has an army three times larger than the UK, and larger than the UK, US (Europe) and French forces combined. They don't need us. If they want to they can put close to a million men into the field.
    Intelligence.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Sky News now interviewing Tim Marshall! I bet they wish they'd never let him go.

    He's saying it's a Colonel/1-star General level coup, and the top level Generals may not be involved.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    edited July 2016
    I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely NATO had prior knowledge of the coup for at least 10 hours before hand.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    Lol If you were a Turkish copper would you go and arrest them :p ?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely the West had prior knowledge of the coup of at least 10 hours.
    Looks like he may be stuck there.. given the airport closures.
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    TRT TV has just broadcast a declaration.

    Curfew. Martial law.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.

    That's why every effort must be made to ensure it doesn't.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW given Turkey's military capabilities and geographical location I would be shocked if US/UK/France or Russia were not involved in aiding the coup.

    Wut? Turkey has an army three times larger than the UK, and larger than the UK, US (Europe) and French forces combined. They don't need us. If they want to they can put close to a million men into the field.
    That's pretty much exactly my point, Turkey is too important for the West/Russia to leave entirely to its own devices, hence why I said that it's fairly likely that either UK/US/France or Russia would want influence among its next leaders.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Busy 24 hours for Boris....
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    That shows how very little you understand about Turkish Politics...
    I'm talking about UK politics. Nobody would have believed Turkey was about the join the EU if it was in the middle of a coup.
    It's still unlikely, I said it as well. Though if this a secular coup it is probably more likely. I'd venture that Brexit may have been one of the triggers.
    A very minor one, surely. What makes you think Brexit might have had any influence?
    Britain have been Turkey's only ally in the EU for accession and trade policies. Without us to push their case the secular establishment might have got an itchy trigger finger. It's clear that Erdogan has been under pressure to make nice with Russia and Syria as well.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,751
    kle4 said:

    I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.

    As PB's foremost historian, I'll educate you on him
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    John Kerry very neutral there, not even pretending to sound concerned. Erdogan has basically zero allies in the international arena. He's disliked by everyone in Europe, Russia, and the US. His only allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia at the moment I guess?

    I'm not normally one for conspiracies but this seems like a coup that will be very quickly approved by the international community if it succeeds (and they wouldn't launch it if they weren't likely to succeed)

    Israel is not an ally of Erdogan. There has been bad blood between him and Israel for 5 years or more.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely NATO had prior knowledge of the coup for at least 10 hours before hand.
    And if NATO knew, NATO probably gave it a helping hand.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,689
    edited July 2016

    John Kerry very neutral there, not even pretending to sound concerned. Erdogan has basically zero allies in the international arena. He's disliked by everyone in Europe, Russia, and the US. His only allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia at the moment I guess?

    I'm not normally one for conspiracies but this seems like a coup that will be very quickly approved by the international community if it succeeds (and they wouldn't launch it if they weren't likely to succeed)

    Not Saudi Arabia. Very angry about him making conciliatory noises toward Syria, and been complaining about him to Kerry.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294
    viewcode said:

    This week they've changed the access policy in the work wifi to specifically disallow betting sites, so I can't connect my lappy to this site in work hours, Arse. It's probably Brexit... :)

    Anyhoo, my access is restricted and suddenly the news goes nonlinear. Multiple terrorist attacks in France, military coup in Turkey, Plissken flying the Gulf-fire into Leningrad. If I don't log in tomorrow, the news will involve the phrase "you now have two minutes to reach minimum safe distance"

    Oh come on, you can work around that :)

    At Goldman, I used to have the greatest fun in making sure IT could (physically) see me using sites that were banned. Of course, the logs indicated I was using a different site...
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,223

    Busy 24 hours for Boris....

    He's probably behind it!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely NATO had prior knowledge of the coup for at least 10 hours before hand.
    Does NATO have rules about what they are supposed to do in terms of letting a leader know if their own military is getting coup happy?

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.

    The military has taken control of state TV and the airports. It's not going to fail.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    Holidaymakers will be stuck in their all inclusive bars :p

    "Can't get home, coup on"
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    eek said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    In Bodrum supposedly...
    Rumour that he has been scooped up.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    Sky News now interviewing Tim Marshall! I bet they wish they'd never let him go.

    He's saying it's a Colonel/1-star General level coup, and the top level Generals may not be involved.
    He's been reading PB! I said it was probably brigadiers and colonels.

    Edit: not here, damn wrote it in WhatsApp!

    [21:56]I'd imagine it's brigadiers and colonel's who have become sick of the direction the country is taking and decided they've had enough. It also looks like they have the military police, army, navy and air force on board.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    kle4 said:

    I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.

    Atatürk was a genuinely remarkable man. It's a shame the UK history curriculum is so narrow (though I hear its being improved). The late Ottoman empire was a basket case. He was a truly modern leader. Check him out. Considering his background...amazing.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Holidaymakers will be stuck in their all inclusive bars :p

    "Can't get home, coup on"

    I hope they're well-stocked.
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    MikeK said:

    John Kerry very neutral there, not even pretending to sound concerned. Erdogan has basically zero allies in the international arena. He's disliked by everyone in Europe, Russia, and the US. His only allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia at the moment I guess?

    I'm not normally one for conspiracies but this seems like a coup that will be very quickly approved by the international community if it succeeds (and they wouldn't launch it if they weren't likely to succeed)

    Israel is not an ally of Erdogan. There has been bad blood between him and Israel for 5 years or more.
    I thought they recently kissed and made up?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely NATO had prior knowledge of the coup for at least 10 hours before hand.
    Does NATO have rules about what they are supposed to do in terms of letting a leader know if their own military is getting coup happy?

    Not if it suits them to get rid of him.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Sky News now interviewing Tim Marshall! I bet they wish they'd never let him go.

    He's saying it's a Colonel/1-star General level coup, and the top level Generals may not be involved.
    He's been reading PB! I said it was probably brigadiers and colonels.
    TBH right now I'd assume that a rather decent number of journos/politicians are frantically refreshing this for information ;)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely NATO had prior knowledge of the coup for at least 10 hours before hand.
    Does NATO have rules about what they are supposed to do in terms of letting a leader know if their own military is getting coup happy?

    Not if it suits them to get rid of him.
    I didn't ask if they would actually do so, just if they had official rules for such situations.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,629
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.

    Atatürk was a genuinely remarkable man. It's a shame the UK history curriculum is so narrow (though I hear its being improved). The late Ottoman empire was a basket case. He was a truly modern leader. Check him out. Considering his background...amazing.
    Chanak Incident led to Lloyd George's downfall

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanak_Crisis
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Popped back to BBC. Not talking about Turkey. What?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    How many British tourists are likely to be in Turkey?

    I would guess >100,000.
    Jesus, that many?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    Some police about.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,209

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.
    Although I appreciate knowledge of EU accession is an increasingly esosteric coin, I have to point out that non-democracies are not allowed to join the EU.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
    Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    How many British tourists are likely to be in Turkey?

    I would guess >100,000.
    Jesus, that many?
    Not these days, surely. Numbers have gone down hugely.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    MikeK said:

    John Kerry very neutral there, not even pretending to sound concerned. Erdogan has basically zero allies in the international arena. He's disliked by everyone in Europe, Russia, and the US. His only allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia at the moment I guess?

    I'm not normally one for conspiracies but this seems like a coup that will be very quickly approved by the international community if it succeeds (and they wouldn't launch it if they weren't likely to succeed)

    Israel is not an ally of Erdogan. There has been bad blood between him and Israel for 5 years or more.
    I thought they recently kissed and made up?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiss_of_death_(mafia)
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    wasdwasd Posts: 276
    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
    It's the 21st century. They'll have been able to get it off Instagram.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    I think this is going to be a success. It looks like they have control of the airports.

    Has it been confirmed Erdogan is out of the country?
    Erdogan is in Bodrum, in S.W. Turkey.

    The greek military has just announced that they where monitoring the coup movements since lunchtime.
    So definitely the West had prior knowledge of the coup of at least 10 hours.
    Looks like he may be stuck there.. given the airport closures.
    Won't the place be full of people smugglers?

    He could be in a rib already.

    Let's hope there's a storm.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.
    Although I appreciate knowledge of EU accession is an increasingly esosteric coin, I have to point out that non-democracies are not allowed to join the EU.
    If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    MikeK said:

    John Kerry very neutral there, not even pretending to sound concerned. Erdogan has basically zero allies in the international arena. He's disliked by everyone in Europe, Russia, and the US. His only allies are Israel and Saudi Arabia at the moment I guess?

    I'm not normally one for conspiracies but this seems like a coup that will be very quickly approved by the international community if it succeeds (and they wouldn't launch it if they weren't likely to succeed)

    Israel is not an ally of Erdogan. There has been bad blood between him and Israel for 5 years or more.
    I thought they recently kissed and made up?
    Not really.
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    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    How many British tourists are likely to be in Turkey?

    I would guess >100,000.
    Jesus, that many?
    Sounds like a reasonable estimate. Apparently some 2.5 million Brits visit Turkey every year. Might be a bit less cos the school holidays haven't started yet.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Amazing to see tanks rolling through the streets of a NATO country.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

    I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
    Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.
    One of the most influential papers I ever read was by a CIA analyst. He pointed out that Western intelligence agencies had failed to predict every important event in modern history, from the Cuban missile crisis through the fall of the Shah through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...all the way to the fall of the Soviet Union. He then proceeded to analyse why we'd had this collective serial failure.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.

    Atatürk was a genuinely remarkable man. It's a shame the UK history curriculum is so narrow (though I hear its being improved). The late Ottoman empire was a basket case. He was a truly modern leader. Check him out. Considering his background...amazing.
    Chanak Incident led to Lloyd George's downfall

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chanak_Crisis
    I didn't know that. Need to take more of an interest in this period.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Anchor on Turkish National TV saying that secular system needs to be restored.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,420
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    MarcKlein said:
    Bloody hell that jet is low! Why though?
    You need to live in a low fly training zone for a while. Looking down at pilots is always a treat when out walking.
    Slightly more disorientating when it's a C130 and you're just about able to keep pace with it on a motorbike.
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Busy 24 hours for Boris....

    Kerry and Lavrov hand in hand tonight.

    I think the coup in Turkey might be a wider effort, not just the americans behind it.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited July 2016
    Hilarious. I was on here yesterday talking about Atatürk and the relative secularism of Turkey and 24 hours later to the hour there's a coup in the country. Nothing's off the table at the moment.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    edited July 2016
    kle4 said:

    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?

    The Soviet Union was the enemy, the Turkish military and security services are very much not. They probably tipped off those friends that need to know before many of their own forces.

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,048
    edited July 2016
    Damascus celebrating. No surprise there I guess
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    SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Erdogan making a statement on CNN Turk right now.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Chameleon said:

    Anchor on Turkish National TV saying that secular system needs to be restored.

    Was the anchor just installed, or are they showing their colours?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    Popped back to BBC. Not talking about Turkey. What?

    You need to go to Radio 5
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Bad news for ISIS if Erdogan is gone?
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    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    Hilarious. I was on here yesterday talking about Atatürk and the relative secularism of Turkey and 24 hours later to the hour there's a coup in the country. Nothing's off the table at the moment.

    Is that you claiming the credit there?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,135
    Chameleon said:

    Anchor on Turkish National TV saying that secular system needs to be restored.

    It's a shame the people of Turkey, by majority, don't seem to agree.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    Hilarious. I was on here yesterday talking about Atatürk and the relative secularism of Turkey and 24 hours later to the hour there's a coup in the country. Nothing's off the table at the moment.

    Please don't start talking about the relative secularism of the UK any time soon.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    alex. said:

    RobD said:

    Popped back to BBC. Not talking about Turkey. What?

    You need to go to Radio 5
    fair enough, I was just checking the news channel.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    AndyJS said:

    MarcKlein said:
    I wish people knew how to spell fazed these days. Standards are slipping.
    Long since slipped, particularly in the BBC
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    John_M said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
    Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.
    One of the most influential papers I ever read was by a CIA analyst. He pointed out that Western intelligence agencies had failed to predict every important event in modern history, from the Cuban missile crisis through the fall of the Shah through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...all the way to the fall of the Soviet Union. He then proceeded to analyse why we'd had this collective serial failure.
    What was the conclusion?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What a three weeks.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,684

    Bad news for ISIS if Erdogan is gone?

    Very.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,294
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.
    Although I appreciate knowledge of EU accession is an increasingly esosteric coin, I have to point out that non-democracies are not allowed to join the EU.
    Although they are allowed to mint Euros :)
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.
    Although I appreciate knowledge of EU accession is an increasingly esosteric coin, I have to point out that non-democracies are not allowed to join the EU.
    Spain, Greece and many other nations transferred pretty rapidly from military dictatorship to EU/predecessor members. Greece was a military dictatorship in July 1974 and an EEC member by New Years Day 1981, less than seven years later.

    On that timescale, Turkey could be a member within a decade.
This discussion has been closed.