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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

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  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    edited July 2016
    https://twitter.com/jotabe/status/754064826033381377

    via smartphone. A first, I guess.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Speedy said:

    Erdogan making a statement on CNN Turk right now.

    Any idea what he is saying?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    When you're having to say that you're still in control via someone holding up a phone with you on FaceTime, You know that you really aren't.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    MarcKlein said:
    Wow, he must be in trouble if he has to do it through an iPhone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    BigIan said:

    Hilarious. I was on here yesterday talking about Atatürk and the relative secularism of Turkey and 24 hours later to the hour there's a coup in the country. Nothing's off the table at the moment.

    Is that you claiming the credit there?
    More troubling if so - when does Kent start the uprising??
  • RobD said:

    Speedy said:

    Erdogan making a statement on CNN Turk right now.

    Any idea what he is saying?
    A rude rhyme involving three doors Boris Johnson and a goat?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    AndyJS said:

    What a three weeks.

    Can’t remember Project fear mentioning this… :)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    RobD said:

    Chameleon said:

    Anchor on Turkish National TV saying that secular system needs to be restored.

    Was the anchor just installed, or are they showing their colours?
    I for one welcome our new insect overlords Peace Council
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,662
    MarcKlein said:
    That is NOT a man in full charge.

    I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Chameleon said:

    When you're having to say that you're still in control via someone holding up a phone with you on FaceTime, You know that you really aren't.

    Yeah! Perhaps a bad move to do that, should have had audio only.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    kle4 said:

    I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

    I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

    Someone should make a video game simulating Tory and Labour leadership contests. Obviously the former would be more fun.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    kle4 said:

    I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

    I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

    Fun fact: that game was created by Demis Hassabis, who went on to create Deep Mind, which was sold to Google for a gazillion dollars.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Chameleon said:

    When you're having to say that you're still in control via someone holding up a phone with you on FaceTime, You know that you really aren't.

    Ha, quite.
  • WTF WTF WTF

    I go out for the evening thinking, oh well things are calming down at last, and discover there has been a military coup in Turkey when I get back.

    What a month.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,410
    Pulpstar said:

    MarcKlein said:
    That is NOT a man in full charge.

    I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
    Erdogen 4 Labour :lol:
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    RobD said:

    MarcKlein said:
    Wow, he must be in trouble if he has to do it through an iPhone.
    Rubbish, it's the way to do it. Reaching out to the yoof an that.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.
    Although I appreciate knowledge of EU accession is an increasingly esosteric coin, I have to point out that non-democracies are not allowed to join the EU.
    Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.

    The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...

    Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
    Greece joined EEC: 1981

    Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
    Portugal joined EEC: 1986

    Rule of Franco ended: 1975
    Spain joined EEC: 1986

    So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,389
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    I feel like I should have been taught more about Turkey, the end of the Ottoman Empire and Ataturk - he seems to have been a towering figure and that rare thing, transformative.

    Atatürk was a genuinely remarkable man. It's a shame the UK history curriculum is so narrow (though I hear its being improved). The late Ottoman empire was a basket case. He was a truly modern leader. Check him out. Considering his background...amazing.
    Like a drink as well so obviously a good lad, though it was the death of him.
  • Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    Quick, who can photoshop the information minister onto an iPhone?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    Erdogan must be toast if he has to rely on a smartphone to give an interview.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270

    WTF WTF WTF

    I go out for the evening thinking, oh well things are calming down at last, and discover there has been a military coup in Turkey when I get back.

    What a month.

    It's like somebody has spotted there is whole bunch of news that is just about to go past its use-by date...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Erdogan's statement on CNN Turk is through a mobile phone.
    He calls for a popular uprising against the coup plotters and blames the Gulen network.

    The military meanwhile have proclaimed that the "committee for peace in the country" will govern.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,807
    edited July 2016
    Chameleon said:

    If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.

    Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304

    Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.

    I wonder if this makes Turkey more or less likely to be let into the EU?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016

    John_M said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
    Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.
    One of the most influential papers I ever read was by a CIA analyst. He pointed out that Western intelligence agencies had failed to predict every important event in modern history, from the Cuban missile crisis through the fall of the Shah through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...all the way to the fall of the Soviet Union. He then proceeded to analyse why we'd had this collective serial failure.
    What was the conclusion?
    Some parts were classified, but the overall thrust was that the intelligence processing and governance structures act as a kind of tacit corporate groupthink.

    If you think about any seminal historical event, at the outset they all seem very unlikely. Therefore, persuasive cases made by analysts from raw intelligence are filtered, downgraded and hedged until any signal is lost in the bureaucratic noise.

    As we saw in the Aldrich Ames case, intelligence agencies (large bureaucracies all) don't necessarily win plaudits for being right but do get hammered for being wrong. Therefore there are powerful incentives for making very modest, heavily caveated predictions.

    TL:DR You get what you measure.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Erdogan still at large and trying organise support.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    A LOT of UK holidaymakers are going to be very upset - especially as:- (to give an example)

    You are not covered for claims arising out of;
    1. loss or damage directly or indirectly occasioned by, happening through or in consequence of war, invasion, acts of foreign enemies, terrorism, hostilities (whether war be declared or not), civil war, rebellion, revolution, insurrection, military or usurped power or confiscation or
    nationalisation, or requisition or destruction of or damage to property by or under the order of any government or public or local authority. This is not applicable, however, in respect of claims under section 2 - emergency medical expenses arising through terrorism other than losses arising from nuclear, chemical and biological exposures unless you planned to travel to areas that were publicly known to be affected or threatened by such risks (please see general condition 3).

    will often appear in travel insurance policies.
  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    edited July 2016
    Erdogan calls for Turks to take to the streets...
    https://twitter.com/CELTIC_FC_/status/754066218261188608

    Maybe some are following.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Yay Tascim Square, so many happy memories
  • vikvik Posts: 159
    Pulpstar said:

    Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?

    Thinking out loud.

    There wouldn't be a coup.

    If it was clear that he had lost support among the people, then the Queen would dismiss him & appoint the Tory leader as the PM, and there would be fresh elections which the new PM would presumably win.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    viewcode said:

    Chameleon said:

    viewcode said:

    MaxPB said:

    Turkey about to join EU? Utter bollx from Leave. Now exposed in a terrible way

    A secular military coup probably moves them a step closer tbh.
    Crap. If this had happened during our own EU vote campaign the whole idea that Turkey was "about to join" would have been blown out of the water.
    But it didn't so suck it up. If this coup succeeds then that probably moves them a step closer.
    Although I appreciate knowledge of EU accession is an increasingly esosteric coin, I have to point out that non-democracies are not allowed to join the EU.
    If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.
    Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.
    Yeah same, though I fear that the EU Bureaucrats may not. I think that Greece was a mere 7 years from coup to EU accession.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    I should realllly be doing some work.......... but events!
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Erdogan has called for people to go to the streets in a video call.

    Reportedly he is on his way to Germany...so rumoured lifted a while back...now going to Germany...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418

    Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

    We need an abdication crisis to calm things down
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Message for Erdogan: this coup was God's will.
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    Chameleon said:

    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

    It occurred on a Friday after the markets closed. Short of a holiday weekend is there any less of a destabilizing time for a coup?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    tlg86 said:

    Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.

    I wonder if this makes Turkey more or less likely to be let into the EU?
    More, if it is Western backed & follows process of previous coups. Less if there is lots of resistance leading to civil war or if it is Russian backed.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

    I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

    Fun fact: that game was created by Demis Hassabis, who went on to create Deep Mind, which was sold to Google for a gazillion dollars.
    And as a Greek Cypriot Brit he was heavily effected by Turkey!

    It's all connected!!!!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Damascus celebrating. No surprise there I guess

    Dictators in the Middle East are back in fashion.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'
  • GravitationGravitation Posts: 287
    MaxPB said:

    How does NATO fit into all this? Can Article 5 only be invoked against attacks by an external power or could a government use it against a coup attempt?

    No, only against an external aggressor.
    Glad to hear!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

    I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

    Someone should make a video game simulating Tory and Labour leadership contests. Obviously the former would be more fun.
    The latter, surely?

    Personally, that'd be such a grand strategy mess, I'd be no good at it though (Crusader Kings 2, far too intimidating). Even simple ones too hard for me, I have no patience - I played Democracy 3 and set about trying to create a populist revolutionary government and ended up with the country in ruins and an abrupt 'you got assassinated' screen after like 6 months go game time. TSE would do better.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    OUT said:

    RobD said:

    MarcKlein said:
    Wow, he must be in trouble if he has to do it through an iPhone.
    Rubbish, it's the way to do it. Reaching out to the yoof an that.
    What does his twitter and Facebook account say?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    How many British tourists are likely to be in Turkey?

    I would guess >100,000.
    Jesus, that many?
    Not these days, surely. Numbers have gone down hugely.
    LBC discussion today, sometime from the travel industry was saying Turkey has become something if a market for bargain holidays, but only the parts further away from any recent incidents. So people are going there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Damascus celebrating. No surprise there I guess

    Dictators in the Middle East are back in fashion.
    Well, they kept terrible things off western papers at least.
  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    reports of clashes between police and Army.
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

    We need an abdication crisis to calm things down
    Unlucky 13th PM...?
    vik said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?

    Thinking out loud.

    There wouldn't be a coup.

    If it was clear that he had lost support among the people, then the Queen would dismiss him & appoint the Tory leader as the PM, and there would be fresh elections which the new PM would presumably win.
    Mind you, the PLP must be looking on with some envy.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Where is Blair when we need him?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    BigIan said:

    Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

    We need an abdication crisis to calm things down
    Unlucky 13th PM...?
    vik said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Would we have a coup in the event Corbyn got in charge ?

    Thinking out loud.

    There wouldn't be a coup.

    If it was clear that he had lost support among the people, then the Queen would dismiss him & appoint the Tory leader as the PM, and there would be fresh elections which the new PM would presumably win.
    Mind you, the PLP must be looking on with some envy.
    Better May than Leadsom (or Corbyn)!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    ToryJim said:

    You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'

    There's not much we can do except emit soothing noises and do our best on the ground for our holidaymakers. Boris is only needed for the first part.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    viewcode said:

    Chameleon said:

    If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.

    Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.
    Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ToryJim said:

    You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'

    Presumably Hammond gave him a detailed handover?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    wasd said:

    Chameleon said:

    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

    It occurred on a Friday after the markets closed. Short of a holiday weekend is there any less of a destabilizing time for a coup?
    Nope. Though I am very nervous about the aftershocks of this, re Russia, popular support for Erodgan and the Kurds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Chameleon said:

    This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.

    They have taken a massive amount of land in Syria and Iraq now.
  • Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.

    Why? Having left the EU, we'll no longer have a veto on Turkey joining. But we'll still need to allow freedom of movement if we want to remain in the single market.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,262
    ToryJim said:

    You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'

    Does he? It would appear that the best British response to this is nothing.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,001
    Chameleon said:

    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

    Does he have any reason to support Erdogan? I know he doesn't exactly like the West removing leaders it doesn't like.....
  • There was once a young man from Ankara,
    Who was alas a bit of a Wankera
    The Generals they spoke,
    You have got our goat
    And was last seen on an Iphone as he sank-ara (without trace)

    With apologies to the foreign secretary
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

    If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Good thing this didn't happen while Cameron was on his way to the palace I guess.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    AndyJS said:

    What a three weeks.

    Can’t remember Project fear mentioning this… :)
    Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.

    Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.

    They have taken a massive amount of land in Syria and Iraq now.
    Yep, given that the new Turkish leader will be grappling with ISIS & Assad (if Western backed), the Kurds may think that they would be (relatively) ignored for now if they stopped wherever they are now and declared a state.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    Bleedin' hell, things aren't quietening down.

    We need an abdication crisis to calm things down
    Thank goodness Her Majesty has no interest in abdications - some things need to be stable!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340
    MarcKlein said:

    reports of clashes between police and Army.

    The police are going to get destroyed if they try anything. It's the Gendarmerie, Army, Air Force and Navy on the side of the coup. The police have no one.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Chameleon said:

    This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.

    They have taken a massive amount of land in Syria and Iraq now.
    The Kurds have decided they don't want their own state right now.

    To be fair, they basically already have one. The decision is just not to officially pronounce it
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Yet again world events make me think Thank Heavens we voted Leave.

    Why? Having left the EU, we'll no longer have a veto on Turkey joining. But we'll still need to allow freedom of movement if we want to remain in the single market.
    The notion the UK would exercise a veto if Cyprus, Greece, France and 24 other nations did not was always a non-starter anyway.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.

    A very smart comment, Southam.
  • Speedy said:

    The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

    If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.

    Followed swiftly by a Russian invasion from east and west with the Turkish state reduced to a rump around Ankara and the Ecumenical Patriach installed in Hagia Sophia?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,807



    Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.

    The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...

    Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
    Greece joined EEC: 1981

    Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
    Portugal joined EEC: 1986

    Rule of Franco ended: 1975
    Spain joined EEC: 1986

    So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)

    Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)

    Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
    Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
    Greece joined EEC: 1981

    Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
    Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
    Portugal joined EEC: 1986

    Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
    Rule of Franco ended: 1975
    Spain joined EEC: 1986

    So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065... :(
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    This could be the Kurds' moment to form their own state, I don't think that they'll think for too long about taking it.

    They have taken a massive amount of land in Syria and Iraq now.
    The Kurds have decided they don't want their own state right now.

    To be fair, they basically already have one. The decision is just not to officially pronounce it
    But they may see the chaos all around them and decide that this is the best chance they'll ever get.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Junior ministers have been announced btw. As if anyone cares - we're all watching Game of Thrones Live.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

    If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.

    Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340
    The people are cheering the military on. Erdogan is done.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Penny Mordaunt – Minister of State at DWP

    Mike Penning – Minister of State at MoD

    Anna Soubry, Ros Altmann and Ed Vaizey have left the government.

    Brandon Lewis – Minister of State for Policing and the Fire Service at the Home Office

    Matt Hancock – Minister of State responsible for digital policy at DCMS

    Jane Ellison – Financial Secretary to the Treasury

    Jo Johnson – Minister of State at the Department for Education and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, leading on universities and science

    John Hayes – Minister of State at the Department for Transport

    Damian Hinds – Minister of State for the Department of Work and Pensions

    Greg Hands – Minister of State in the Department for International Trade

    Robert Goodwill – Minister of State for immigration in the Home Office
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    CHP - main op party have just released a statement saying that they standby democracy.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Pulpstar said:

    MarcKlein said:
    That is NOT a man in full charge.

    I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
    Yes that looks bad for him. He couldn't even get a proper camera to broadcast a statement? That looks more like he's been found in Pokemon Go. Erdomon.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    John_M said:

    John_M said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Chameleon said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:

    RobD said:

    WHY is it not the top story on the BBC?

    Because Britain (well America) might be behind it ?
    That sort of thinking usually depends on other countries being depicted as having no power, influence or motivations of their own, dependent entirely on dancing to western strings. Now, perhaps there is something going on here, we shall see, but I bet they wish they still had that kind of pull.
    Given's Turkey's capabilities and geographical location it'd be pretty negligent if the CIA/SIS didn't at the very least know about this coup attempt.
    I'd hope they'd know, but who can say - didn't we discover from american disclosure of presidential communications recently that they didn't have a clue what was going on on the ground when the Soviet Union collapsed, or am I remembering?
    Hmm, I can't remember anything about that, but even if it was the case, it was substantially harder to get agents into important positions in the SU than Turkey.
    One of the most influential papers I ever read was by a CIA analyst. He pointed out that Western intelligence agencies had failed to predict every important event in modern history, from the Cuban missile crisis through the fall of the Shah through the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan...all the way to the fall of the Soviet Union. He then proceeded to analyse why we'd had this collective serial failure.
    What was the conclusion?
    Some parts were classified, but the overall thrust was that the intelligence processing and governance structures act as a kind of tacit corporate groupthink.

    If you think about any seminal historical event, at the outset they all seem very unlikely. Therefore, persuasive cases made by analysts from raw intelligence are filtered, downgraded and hedged until any signal is lost in the bureaucratic noise.

    As we saw in the Aldrich Ames case, intelligence agencies (large bureaucracies all) don't necessarily win plaudits for being right but do get hammered for being wrong. Therefore there are powerful incentives for making very modest, heavily caveated predictions.

    TL:DR You get what you measure.
    Mr M, I think I would agree with that, at least at the strategic level. I'd also add a tendency for those at the top of the intelligence tree to be mindful of what their political masters want to hear (e.g the JIC in 2002).
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I think I will allow myself a little smile when I see Erdogan nailed to a tree by his balls.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    viewcode said:



    Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.

    The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...

    Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
    Greece joined EEC: 1981

    Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
    Portugal joined EEC: 1986

    Rule of Franco ended: 1975
    Spain joined EEC: 1986

    So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)

    Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)

    Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967
    Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974
    Greece joined EEC: 1981

    Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!)
    Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974
    Portugal joined EEC: 1986

    Rule of Franco started: 1936/9
    Rule of Franco ended: 1975
    Spain joined EEC: 1986

    So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065... :(
    67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.
  • nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    What a three weeks.

    Can’t remember Project fear mentioning this… :)
    Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.

    Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.
    Doesn't sound very logical to me. Why is following a policy that weakens both us and the EU a sensible reaction to terrorism and coups?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,304
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    kle4 said:

    I've played an obscure old video game many times in recent years, called Republic: The Revolution, all about overthrowing an ex-soviet type dicatorship. Entertaining stuff, organizing rallies, criminal activity, forging political connections with other parties, that sort of thing, and it had a number of key events toward the end, where you could storm state tv and make a broadcast, ally with a rogue military faction, orchestrate a populist uprising, force diplomatic pressure to get the leader to stand down, assassinate leading figures in finance, religion and secret police and replace them with your picks.

    I'll probably have to not replay it for awhile until the sight of real coups make it less carefree fun.

    Someone should make a video game simulating Tory and Labour leadership contests. Obviously the former would be more fun.
    The latter, surely?

    Personally, that'd be such a grand strategy mess, I'd be no good at it though (Crusader Kings 2, far too intimidating). Even simple ones too hard for me, I have no patience - I played Democracy 3 and set about trying to create a populist revolutionary government and ended up with the country in ruins and an abrupt 'you got assassinated' screen after like 6 months go game time. TSE would do better.
    I was thinking the Labour one would continually end in failure.
  • Chameleon said:

    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

    Does he have any reason to support Erdogan? I know he doesn't exactly like the West removing leaders it doesn't like.....
    I suspect he is more likely to be behind the coup than the west.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    I can the new iPhone ad..including the lines...

    Facetime - For when you are locked in a cupboard because of a military coup and need to address the nation....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Sky News shows pictures of civilians applauding the soldiers on the streets.

    So far from confronting the troops, they are supporting them.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,340
    nunu said:

    AndyJS said:

    What a three weeks.

    Can’t remember Project fear mentioning this… :)
    Let's see how weak the E.U's response is.

    Any lingering thoughts of Bremorse have been well and truly killed on the last 24 hours in Britain. The sooner we leave the better.
    Weak? I'd imagine that EU nations, at least the UK and France are providing intelligence to the plotters.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Well I'll say this, they aren't pissing about, launching strikes from the air.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Chameleon said:

    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

    It sounds from Lavrov that the Russians are taking a similar line to the Americans, remember they aren't a fan of Erdogan either...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    Sky News shows pictures of civilians applauding the soldiers on the streets.

    So far from confronting the troops, they are supporting them.

    IIRC Istanbul is an anti-Erdogan area so you'd expect that there. Ankara is more supportive of him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,161
    God, he looks so weak with the iPhone footage.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,807
    kle4 said:

    viewcode said:

    Chameleon said:

    If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.

    Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.
    Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.
    Ah, a British democracy, Bernard... :)
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    marke09 said:

    ... Ros Altmann ...[has] left the government.

    Good. She never had the courtesy to reply to my letter about auto-enrolment.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Pulpstar said:

    MarcKlein said:
    That is NOT a man in full charge.

    I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
    Yes that looks bad for him. He couldn't even get a proper camera to broadcast a statement? That looks more like he's been found in Pokemon Go. Erdomon.
    Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in Germany
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    I can the new iPhone ad..including the lines...

    Facetime - For when you are locked in a cupboard because of a military coup and need to address the nation....

    "Shot on an iPhone 6 by Redec, Bodrum"
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.

    Does he have any reason to support Erdogan? I know he doesn't exactly like the West removing leaders it doesn't like.....
    I suspect he is more likely to be behind the coup than the west.
    To FB - he may think that a new Western-backed leader is much more likely to take down Assad, moreover they would be more likely to join the EU, taking them further away from Russia.

    To Paul, I agree, but right now the possibility that Putin may be making Turkey a semi-puppet state is a bit too grim to consider.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,294
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.

    If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.

    Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.
    Are there significant differences of outlook between western and eastern Turkey?
This discussion has been closed.