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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,450
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Obama calls it for Erdogan while Kerry in Russia stays cool. Obama also supported Morsi in Egypt though, he seems to be a bit of a foreign policy fool.
    I've always thought he seems a bit of a fool full stop...
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    RobD said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    US calling it for Erdogan?
    Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.
    He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".

    Its a hedge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    edited July 2016
    snip
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Well if there is a second referendum, I predict an uphill struggle for remainers.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    If you have to have a scheme for non directors who aren't in the ssas you directors could just join too pay the phased bare minimums and then carry on with the ssas regardless for main provision. The key though is you are untypical of the swathe of employers now staging and who mainly have shell stakeholders if they had need if anything at all. The tiny firms are ok too as I've defined them and Richard t shows.

    Paying in to a scheme rather than opting-out would be absurdly burdensome in terms of the admin required.

    Sure, tiny firms with one employee-director are fine. But not tiny firms (of which there are many, especially hi-tech start-ups) with two or three employee-directors. That was my simple point, which Baroness Altman didn't bother to respond to. So good riddance that she's gone.
    Hang on, perhaps your letter worked because that's exactly the exemption which came in in April this year. I can't link to the gov site which consulted on this in jan and changed it from April. You may be fine from now on.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited July 2016
    MarcKlein said:

    ttps://twitter.com/JustBanter__/status/754090056294535168

    Trans # Urgent | News of the death of 17 policemen during the coup attack on the headquarters of the Special Forces in Turkey
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Lowlander said:

    RobD said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    US calling it for Erdogan?
    Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.
    He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".

    Its a hedge.
    It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Lowlander said:

    RobD said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    US calling it for Erdogan?
    Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.
    He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".

    Its a hedge.
    In what sense was the government not democratic though? I thought elections in Turkey were OK,despite journalist intimidation? The people, as ever, are the problem.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920
    Chameleon said:

    Lowlander said:

    RobD said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    US calling it for Erdogan?
    Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.
    He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".

    Its a hedge.
    It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.
    Who are the Russians calling it for?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822


    Hang on, perhaps your letter worked because that's exactly the exemption which came in in April this year. I can't link to the gov site which consulted on this in jan and changed it from April. You may be fine from now on.

    Ah, if so I'll forgive her! I'll look it up tomorrow, thanks. Now it's bed time - g'night all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    My ongoing assessment of changing headlined, now the bbchas it as as army group stages coup attempt. Not even the glory of takes power in quotes at least.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,999

    Will the UK's membership of the EU outlast Turkey's membership of NATO?

    No. There is no way that any army officer would be doing this if they thought it put NATO membership at risk.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    If you have to have a scheme for non directors who aren't in the ssas you directors could just join too pay the phased bare minimums and then carry on with the ssas regardless for main provision. The key though is you are untypical of the swathe of employers now staging and who mainly have shell stakeholders if they had need if anything at all. The tiny firms are ok too as I've defined them and Richard t shows.

    Paying in to a scheme rather than opting-out would be absurdly burdensome in terms of the admin required.

    Sure, tiny firms with one employee-director are fine. But not tiny firms (of which there are many, especially hi-tech start-ups) with two or three employee-directors. That was my simple point, which Baroness Altman didn't bother to respond to. So good riddance that she's gone.
    Hang on, perhaps your letter worked because that's exactly the exemption which came in in April this year. I can't link to the gov site which consulted on this in jan and changed it from April. You may be fine from now on.
    Do a Google for 'April 2016 director changes for auto enrolment ', you'll see its a lot simpler for you now.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    kle4 said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
    They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
    They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.
    What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Whatever happens the coup is proof that democracy and Islam are not happy bedfellows.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    AndyJS said:

    Whatever happens the coup is proof that democracy and Islam are not happy bedfellows.

    Ironically the secularists are the ones fighting against a democratically-elected govt.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
    They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.
    What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?
    About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Chameleon said:

    Lowlander said:

    RobD said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    US calling it for Erdogan?
    Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.
    He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".

    Its a hedge.
    It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.
    Fox just repeated it - they said "an" not "the".
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    taffys said:

    Well if there is a second referendum, I predict an uphill struggle for remainers.

    Why? The lie that Turkey is about to join is now sunk.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Lowlander said:

    Chameleon said:

    Lowlander said:

    RobD said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    US calling it for Erdogan?
    Just posting what is on the Sky live feed, but that is how I read it.
    He said "a democratic government" not "the democratic government".

    Its a hedge.
    It says 'the'. Although it notably omits Erdogan's name. I still think that this is the US calling it for the Govt.
    Fox just repeated it - they said "an" not "the".
    Well that's just poor grammar! ;)
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    So... has tim changed his twitter name now???

    Iht rocks...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    Brom said:

    If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!

    The retweets of the public reaction to his nonsense is a particular highlight.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,920

    Will the UK's membership of the EU outlast Turkey's membership of NATO?

    No. There is no way that any army officer would be doing this if they thought it put NATO membership at risk.
    But if the army fails?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Brom

    'If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!'


    The numpty is blaming it on Brexit,where do Labour find these idiots ?

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,427
    Clearly I don't know anything more about it than anyone else but the general supposedly leading the coup was court martialled earlier this year. So it could be a disgruntled faction within the army?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    Sky - US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he emphasised "absolute support for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions" in a phone call with Turkey's Foreign Minister.

    If the Obama quote could be read two ways, Kerry quote and who he was saying it to sounds very clear to me.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    surbiton said:

    The Coup Plotters have been arrested.

    As plotters they were fucking useless?
    Hahahaha.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    This is the only Tweet Matt Drudge has ever made (since joining twitter 5 years ago).

    https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/754094122240061441
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    john_zims said:

    @Brom

    'If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!'


    The numpty is blaming it on Brexit,where do Labour find these idiots ?

    Even as a remainer I must say that is the most bonkers assumption yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016
    FF43 said:

    Clearly I don't know anything more about it than anyone else but the general supposedly leading the coup was court martialled earlier this year. So it could be a disgruntled faction within the army?

    I'd assumed the days of army coups In turkey were past, as I think swathes of senior officers had been similarly purged in the last decade, but that's just a vague recollection.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    An attempted coup, people on the streets, yet a guy is sleeping in Taksim Square.
    Mohammed C Nesbitt.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855

    Sky - US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he emphasised "absolute support for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions" in a phone call with Turkey's Foreign Minister.

    If the Obama quote could be read two ways, Kerry quote and who he was saying it to sounds very clear to me.

    Close to over then and getting in publicly before that's obvious to all.

    Good night.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334

    US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that he emphasised "absolute support for Turkey's democratically elected, civilian government and democratic institutions" in a phone call with Turkey's Foreign Minister.

    Looks like Erdogan is going to hold on then. Shame. I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to amend Turkey's constitution to remove the military protection for secularism if he does win. Hopefully the people see him for what he is and kick him out, but he has absolute control over the media and locks up dissidents so it isn't going to be easy. I think an assassination would probably have worked better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554

    The democratic order in Turkey must be respected and all must be done to protect lives, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,450
    john_zims said:

    @Brom

    'If it hasn't been mentioned before then Chris Bryant's Twitter is the place to be. What a complete bellend!'


    The numpty is blaming it on Brexit,where do Labour find these idiots ?

    Is he pissed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.

    "We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."

    So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Can I suggest that OGH stops writing articles for a while? These days "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet" would probably do with all the weirdness the world is throwing up.

    Night all.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    NATO chief has called for "full respect" for Turkey's democratic institutions, constitution.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.

    "We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."

    So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.

    Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.

    "We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."

    So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.

    Seems fairly obviously the first, not really that ambiguous. I was far more annoyed by the BBC report that Erdogan was on "vacation"...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016

    Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.

    "We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."

    So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.

    Deary me...what has happened to quality of the BBC...what do they teach them at that college of journalism...from their live feed.

    "We're getting images of some injuries among pro-coup protesters on the Bosphorus Bridge in Istanbul."

    So are they pro coup and protesting, or are they protesting about those who are pro coup.

    Seems fairly obviously the first, not really that ambiguous. I was far more annoyed by the BBC report that Erdogan was on "vacation"...
    Why would the military shot those supporting the coup? And also, so far all the rest of the coverage has only shown anti-coup public on the streets....so its it the first?

    If they are pro-coup, they are surely coup supporters....if they are anti-coup they are protesters.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    taffys said:

    Well if there is a second referendum, I predict an uphill struggle for remainers.

    Why? The lie that Turkey is about to join is now sunk.
    That was never taken seriously by most Britons they are not stupid. But if u want a second ref be my guest, although Corbyn might just come out for Leave this time just to piss off the PLP even more. Lol.

    Seriously tho asking the electorate again will lead to a resounding defeat for Remain. I would bet big on it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Istanbul's airport hopes to resume international departures soon, according to the European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
    They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.
    What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?
    About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.
    Lol. They are fucking useless as plotters then.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
    They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.
    What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?
    About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.
    Lol. They are fucking useless as plotters then.
    They have been watching the Labour leadership attempted coup and thought it was a blueprint on how to do things.
  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    Reuters: bomb his Turkish parliament in Ankara
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bomb hits Turkish Parliament — BBC.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,243
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    President Obama has urged support for "democratically-elected" Turkish government.

    Sign erdogan is winning this?

    I expect when I wake up in the morning this will be all but over, and a far dry from smooth coups of yesteryear.
    They started too early and should have taken control of the internet and shut it down. They also needed to shut down all of the TV outlets but one and spoken with one voice. Stay indoors, we're in control, Erdogan is being given a one way ticket to Qatar.
    What time did it start over there, it must have been after midnight?
    About midnight I think. Last time it happened at 3am when the nation was asleep.
    Lol. They are fucking useless as plotters then.
    They have been watching the Labour leadership attempted coup and thought it was a blueprint on how to do things.
    They should have phoned May for tips beforehand.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    AndyJS said:

    BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.

    The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    https://www.facebook.com/gemliklife/ proper singalong here
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    Seems like the plotters have taken tips from the PLP
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.

    The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.
    You wonder how crap their military training is if they can't seize and hold something like a tv station vs a civilian mob.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2016
    Y0kel said:

    There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952

    The 21st Century is insane.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    Pong said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952

    The 21st Century is insane.
    Aint in no holding pattern now.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Pong said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952
    And its heading North East towards Istanbul.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pong said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952

    The 21st Century is insane.
    That's him I reckon.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    Just watching a wedding (I think) party going on in Aleppo - not a hijab or veil in sight.
  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    edited July 2016

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.

    The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.
    You wonder how crap their military training is if they can't seize and hold something like a tv station vs a civilian mob.
    Sometimes the squaddies just refuse to fire on the people.

    If it can be done bloodlessly by the seizure of TV stations, parliaments, convincing the regime to flee, etc. - they're in.

    If it means massacring their fellow citizens [and ending up swinging from lampposts themselves] - they're out.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    MaxPB said:

    AndyJS said:

    BBC still sounding very pessimistic about Erdogan's chances.

    The plotters have lost the airport and the TV station apparently. If that is true then they have lost. They should have shut down the internet and all TV stations from the beginning then gone in air to tell people to stay indoors. Once Erdogan was able to rally his rent-a-mob it was never going to be easy, they could probably still win but it would end up being a very bloody, very messy affair.
    You wonder how crap their military training is if they can't seize and hold something like a tv station vs a civilian mob.
    That kind of thing isn't so much about training though is it? The issue is how you react when folk ignore the warning shots. Do you really want to shoot a civilian, your own countryman? Do you feel comfortable with that? Military training alone can't do that, I suspect, especially if you're in doubt whether the orders are legitimate and your superiors are really in control. Bear in mind your odds of being prosecuted after the event and it would hardly be the easy choice.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited July 2016
    Y0kel said:

    Pong said:

    Y0kel said:

    There is a Turkish government executive jet south of Istanbul on the other side of the Sea of Marmara, just working a holding pattern.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/THY8456/a5a3952
    And its heading North East towards Istanbul.
    According to the flightradar website, the plane has been stationary @ 1250ft for the past 2 minutes.

    The website data is probably wrong.

    or....

    edit. looks like it's landed.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Ankara is too much of a hot zone to land Erdogan by looks of it.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Pulpstar said:

    Just watching a wedding (I think) party going on in Aleppo - not a hijab or veil in sight.

    Is it segregated?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    1hour 37 mins to cover 475 km
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,655
    edited July 2016
    nunu said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Just watching a wedding (I think) party going on in Aleppo - not a hijab or veil in sight.

    Is it segregated?
    Nope, wasn't at all. https://www.facebook.com/gabiafram11 2nd vid down - amongst all the madness in the world people in the war ravaged city of Aleppo were having a great time !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Two more explosions hit the Parliament building in Ankara. It can't be over yet.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    "Tens of Turkish soldiers" have surrendered their weapons to armed police in Taksim Square, a witness tells Reuters.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    new thread folks....
This discussion has been closed.