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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest bef

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Jobabob said:

    Speedy said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.
    Some of it is in Europe
    A small part.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    John_M said:

    Soubry tweeting that she's returning to her constituency to continue campaigning for Remain. ........

    Is she starting to identify with the Lib Dems?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    Speedy said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.
    Half of Istanbul is definitely in Europe - although I usually stay on the Asian side looking over...
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Anyone want to play Junta?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junta_(game)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 29,261
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Where does this leave NATO?

    I guess there's going to be a second COBRA meeting in the space of 24 hours.

    The info i'm getting is that this is a NATO backed coup.
    Also tanks are on the way to Ankara right now.
    Where from?
    And how would Obama suddenly grow the massive pair of cojones required to sponsor a coup in a NATO state?
    As if anything's up to Obama fgs.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    AndyJS said:
    Blimey... was the PM's statement worthy of the former Information Minister?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    John_M said:

    Airport taken.

    Surely that's game over? If the military insurrection controls all key transport and communications the government are literally unable to do anything even if there are loyal troops.

    Somebody very senior and very good is behind this if it's got this far in barely an hour.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    alex. said:

    Because breaking news is boring - I was thinking about the Foreign office earlier today - does Brexit mean that there is going to need to be a big increase in the Foreign office budget. Do we not subcontract a large amount of our embassy/consular work to the EU (or at least do a lot of sharing of buildings etc in smaller countries)? Or do we actually still have a fully functioning operation in countries around the world?

    Brexit will cost a fortune and use up most of the money we used to pay the EU - sorry NHS.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016
    Jobabob said:

    On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit

    It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?
    Not me, but the Nats beat me long ago and I saw it as inevitable. If May could save the Union, definitively, I would consider Remaining a price worth paying.
  • Sky reporting the Turkish military have taken over.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:
    Blimey... was the PM's statement worthy of the former Information Minister?
    Does The Economist still support Turkey's accession to the EU...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    John_M said:

    Airport taken. Military say they've taken back control. Apparently the Vote Leave campaign was even more effective than first thought.

    I'm pretty sure neither Leadsom nor Boris were involved. It's too well-organised for that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    marke09 said:

    Talk of a baptism of fire no tin the job more than 2 days and Theresa May has had to deal with foreign terrorism and now a coup

    Good job Boris doesn't have to also bash out a Telegraph column for Monday ;-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Commonly called "doing a Palpatine"...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Speedy said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.
    As is well known, bits of it are in Europe. As a term, Europe has quite vague definitions, geographically.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Pauly said:

    I'm hearing reports Angela Eagle is responsible and has been planning this coup for 9 months, and Turkey should be worried.

    Depneds on what the NEC say :)
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    A coup in Turkey.

    Today.

    Is there a play being made from the Quai D'Orsay?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    Speedy said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.
    Some of it is in Europe
    A small part.
    The Bosphorus Bridge literally connects Europe to Asia.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    Speedy said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    Turkey is not part of europe, it's in asia.
    Some of it is in Europe
    A small part.
    The Bosphorus Bridge literally connects Europe to Asia.
    Yep
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited July 2016
    Ed Vaizey is out of government. Christ, May really doesn't like Cameroons, does she.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    So I've been consumed with the made up politics of the Dragon Age universe for the last several hours, what's going down in Turkey? I thought the military had been hobbled there for awhile, and Erdogan popularly backed.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Where does this leave NATO?

    I guess there's going to be a second COBRA meeting in the space of 24 hours.

    The info i'm getting is that this is a NATO backed coup.
    Also tanks are on the way to Ankara right now.
    Where from?
    And how would Obama suddenly grow the massive pair of cojones required to sponsor a coup in a NATO state?
    As if anything's up to Obama fgs.
    Here we go.

    Cue spooky music.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276
    ydoethur said:

    John_M said:

    Airport taken.

    Surely that's game over? If the military insurrection controls all key transport and communications the government are literally unable to do anything even if there are loyal troops.

    Somebody very senior and very good is behind this if it's got this far in barely an hour.
    It must depend - if the police and irregulars remain loyal to the previous government then it could become very unpleasant.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Turkish PM has only been in office for 7 weeks:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binali_Yıldırım
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Istanbul is pretty anti-Erdogan isn't it?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Jobabob said:

    On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit

    It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?
    I say it is. Sad to see Scotland go, but as Sean said the tail can't wag the dog.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    John_M said:

    I have just revised my travel guidance to my daughter. Looks like she'll be holidaying in Clacton.

    Might be UKIP coup in Clacton against Douglas Carswell though ?? ....
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    edited July 2016
    Jobabob said:

    On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit

    It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?
    May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.

    May capitulated to Nicola today.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    John_M said:

    Ed Vaizey is out of government. Christ, May really doesn't like Cameroons, does she.

    The only people who will notice that sacking is the posh restaurants around Westminster.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,410
    Are we sure the events in Turkey aren't a Pokemon Go game that's gone too far?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    PClipp said:

    John_M said:

    Soubry tweeting that she's returning to her constituency to continue campaigning for Remain. ........

    Is she starting to identify with the Lib Dems?
    Would they want her?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    Are we sure the events in Turkey aren't a Pokemon Go game that's gone too far?

    I was discussing this with colleagues yesterday. That game could lead to war....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    wasd said:

    ydoethur said:

    John_M said:

    Airport taken.

    Surely that's game over? If the military insurrection controls all key transport and communications the government are literally unable to do anything even if there are loyal troops.

    Somebody very senior and very good is behind this if it's got this far in barely an hour.
    It must depend - if the police and irregulars remain loyal to the previous government then it could become very unpleasant.
    With due respect to the Turkish police, they would stand no chance of fighting jets and tanks. I do not think many would be stupid enough to try either.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    It's also very hard for them to let go.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    nunu said:

    Jobabob said:

    On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit

    It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?
    I say it is. Sad to see Scotland go, but as Sean said the tail can't wag the dog.
    Pretty everything's a price worth paying to the Brexiteers. It's all they care about, leaving the bloody EU.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.
    Turkish army will protect Ataturk's legacy at all costs. It's hardly the first time they've done this.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    They would have to go some to be more corrupt than the current leadership....
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,130
    Lowlander said:

    Jobabob said:

    On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit

    It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?
    May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.

    May capitulated to Nicola today.
    Absolute rubbish - she and Nicola were acting as grown ups unlike yourself
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.
    Since Ataturk the Turkish military have been guardians of their constitution and have had coups repeatedly and so far successfully. If Erdogan is gone then that could be a very good thing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016
    Pulpstar said:
    That's nonsense, Mr Burnham is always very firm in who he backs. Until tomorrow that is. But then he is equally firm in who he then backs.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Mike Dammann ‏@firetown 2m2 minutes ago

    Local conspiracy theory in Turkey: " its a false flag coup so Erdogan can defeat the fake coup and seize more power"
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Pulpstar said:

    The Turkish military about to show Gove and the PLP how a coup is done :p

    :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?
    It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.

    Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.
    The Turkish military have what might be called a "positive" history. Certainly in terms of what their occasional interventions in democracy have meant for the West.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    Speedy said:
    That looks like a seriously complicated game!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,410
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    It's also very hard for them to let go.
    When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or so
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016
    John_M said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.
    Turkish army will protect Ataturk's legacy at all costs. It's hardly the first time they've done this.
    No, but I had thought they'd lost the power to try it. Apparently not. The people keep electing the wrong people though, apparently. Tis every thus, with democracies.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Blimey!

    Not really followed the political situation in Turkey but did/does Erdogan have decent public support? Will the Turkish population support this coup?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    They would have to go some to be more corrupt than the current leadership....
    That didn't stop Musharraf or Pinochet, or for that matter Franco or Horthy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    It's also very hard for them to let go.
    When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or so
    Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracy ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Sky: all flights out of Ataturk have been cancelled...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    edited July 2016

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    It's also very hard for them to let go.
    When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or so
    Fair warning, I'm already planning a resistance movement.

    We shall be called the Keyboard Warriors, and your despotic regime shall tremble at our biting online criticism.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Speedy said:

    Erdogan himself has confirmed it's a military coup.

    Information that I'm getting right now is that this is a western backed coup.

    That would be stupid, even more reason for Islamists to complain
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Having had to spend the last two years building our own rural broadband network, fibre-to-the-home, delighted that Ed Vaizey has paid the price for BDUK fiasco...
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Lowlander said:

    Jobabob said:

    On topic, as Emperor Kahless said Destroying an Empire to win a war is no victory. And ending a battle to save an Empire is no defeat , I do wonder if the Conservative and UNIONIST Party will decide destroying the UK is too high a price for Brexit

    It remains possible. Interesting that May's first official visit as PM was to Bute House. I wonder how many Brexiteers on here would consider a UK split it a price worth paying?
    May was summoned, she did not do the summoning. The balance of power has been fairly clear for quite some time.

    May capitulated to Nicola today.
    Absolute rubbish - she and Nicola were acting as grown ups unlike yourself
    Oh, has May contested Nicola's statement about her capitulation?

    May has not. So we know which way the wind blew. May capitulated, although it still won't be enough to stop the UK being dissolved.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    marke09 said:

    Mike Dammann ‏@firetown 2m2 minutes ago

    Local conspiracy theory in Turkey: " its a false flag coup so Erdogan can defeat the fake coup and seize more power"

    Well, as conspiracy theories go, it's more believeable than most. Erdogan has the personal qualities required, but lacks the organisational support.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Turkey:
    Police attempting to block Military movements on and around the Bosphorus. Civil War?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Mahir Zeynalov ‏@MahirZeynalov 8m8 minutes ago
    A blast in Ankara police special forces training center.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Where's Lord Falconer when you need him?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?
    It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.

    Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...
    I meant in the sense that they've got a history of intervening when elected governments start to deviate from the constitution, and haven't generally hung around for longer than necessary.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Pulpstar said:

    The Turkish military about to show Gove and the PLP how a coup is done :p

    Because the #chickencoup in Labour just isn't worth a comparison?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    rcs1000 said:

    Speedy said:
    That looks like a seriously complicated game!
    "Game time depends on how often coups are declared, but can often exceed six hours."

    A mistress leaves a player open to a character assassination card. Cor! :smiley:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    AndyJS said:

    Where's Lord Falconer when you need him?

    Who do you think is running the coup? :p
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Really odd watching a coup and not knowing who the good guys are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    nunu said:

    Speedy said:

    Erdogan himself has confirmed it's a military coup.

    Information that I'm getting right now is that this is a western backed coup.

    That would be stupid, even more reason for Islamists to complain
    Whether it is true or not it will be said it is a western backed coup. I'm sure the russians will confirm that story too.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Where's Lord Falconer when you need him?

    Who do you think is running the coup? :p
    :smiley::smiley::smiley:
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?
    It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.

    Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...
    Ataturk is a semi-divine figure. I think it is unlikely the military is divided. Maybe some of the leaders of the military but they will have already been "neutralised".
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    If the PM's still free and making statements, the coup's not going well, right? You need to lock down the opposition right from the start, I'd have thought. And if you cannot...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,410
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    It's also very hard for them to let go.
    When I become the Dictator of the UK, I promise to give up power after around 20 years or so
    Didn't you know.. TSE loves democracy ;)
    I shall abolish parliament and appoint regional governors who will have direct control over their territories
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    That's all Europe needs,more refugee's,this looks like a civil war.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    kle4 said:

    If the PM's still free and making statements, the coup's not going well, right? You need to lock down the opposition right from the start, I'd have thought. And if you cannot...

    May I remind you of the Iraqi information minister?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    All TV channels in Turkey are now off the air.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Really odd watching a coup and not knowing who the good guys are.

    Well Erdogan definitely isn't a "good guy". Whether or not the military is, is yet to be determined.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Jobabob said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Where's Lord Falconer when you need him?

    Who do you think is running the coup? :p
    :smiley::smiley::smiley:
    Western-backed, by a peer of the realm no less.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.
    I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in Turkey
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    Military taking over for "democratic order, and for human rights to be maintained".

    Standards Military Junta talk, rarely goes well. No doubt the functions of state will be carried out by some drearily named body, like the Committee for the Establishment of National Harmony.
    Since Ataturk the Turkish military have been guardians of their constitution and have had coups repeatedly and so far successfully. If Erdogan is gone then that could be a very good thing.
    True, but I recall how euphoric people were at the Sisi coup over Morsi and he has rapidly backslid into typical military dictatorship ways. The military can never claim any legitimacy so they eventually can only rule with a big stick. Undoubtedly the fewer islamists in power the better, but this may not be particularly good news for the turks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,169
    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    alex. said:

    ydoethur said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Sky - Military have taken over according to Reuters.

    BBC quoting that statement as well. Big talk about human rights, which suggests it is about secularism/Islamism.

    Problem is even if they start with high ideals, military coups end in corruption and dictatorship (cf Musharraf).
    Although Turkey is possibly very different because of its history in this respect?
    It would be nice to think so, but you could make the same comment about chile, or Argentina, or Egypt, or Spain. And that wasn't true.

    Admittedly Turkey has a stronger democratic tradition than their countries but if the military itself is divided...
    I meant in the sense that they've got a history of intervening when elected governments start to deviate from the constitution, and haven't generally hung around for longer than necessary.
    But it looks as though this isn't the whole military, just a section of it. Which also suggests a power struggle may follow. Which means each side will entrench,and be afraid to give up power for fear of reprisals.

    It also tells me that the Turkish system of government is inadequate if every ten years or so you need the army to seize power and put it back together.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Speedy said:

    All TV channels in Turkey are now off the air.

    Truly a horror to suffer through. Unless the TV is really bad - I've seen Turkish cinema from the 70s.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Really odd watching a coup and not knowing who the good guys are.

    On balance, it is very likely that the Turkish military are the good guys.

    They could be supported by France or Russia (or, possibly, both).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,158
    Charles said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.
    I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in Turkey
    I think it would be wrong to suggest this is Turkey moving away from Accession, especially given Erdogan's policies.
  • MarcKleinMarcKlein Posts: 36
    edited July 2016
    Rumours it's US-inspired with the help of this guy.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fethullah_Gülen
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sky reporting leading generals being held hostage
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
    May be an officers coup.
    But it's very successful so far.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    Rexel56 said:

    Having had to spend the last two years building our own rural broadband network, fibre-to-the-home, delighted that Ed Vaizey has paid the price for BDUK fiasco...

    B4rn?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,450
    Blimey the whole world is going crazy this Summer!

    Nevermind, Keep Calm And Brexit On.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,855
    Charles said:

    So Dave was right, Brexit would lead to wars, coups, and instability in Europe

    A coup is ( yet another ) major step away from Accession. Another Leave lie shown for what it was.
    I know you are frustrated but it's unfair to accuse the Leavers of lying because they didn't anticipate a coup in Turkey
    That is true, although false impressions created about how soon Turkey might join - usually based of diplomatic pronouncements that of course were optimistic - was one of the bolder untruths of the Leave campaign. The immigration angle was strong enough regardless, I don't know why they even bothered.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Good time to be long gold.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    If the PM's still free and making statements, the coup's not going well, right? You need to lock down the opposition right from the start, I'd have thought. And if you cannot...

    May I remind you of the Iraqi information minister?
    The rule of coups is act hard and fast.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    alex. said:

    Sky reporting leading generals being held hostage

    I'd imagine they have got sick of Erdogan's men.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Our world continues to produce history much, much faster than it can sanely be consumed.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    GIN1138 said:

    Blimey the whole world is going crazy this Summer!

    Nevermind, Keep Calm And Brexit On.

    Turkish Delight, anyone?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    Speedy said:

    https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/754053690479276032
    May be an officers coup.
    But it's very successful so far.

    You have to remember that Erdogan has purged the senior generals at least once (I think its twice but don't my googlefu is failing me) to replace them with ones loyal to him.. As such the senior generals are not that supported
This discussion has been closed.