I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
Yes that looks bad for him. He couldn't even get a proper camera to broadcast a statement? That looks more like he's been found in Pokemon Go. Erdomon.
Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in Germany
Hopefully the Germans tell him to fuck off if this is the case.
If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
It sounds from Lavrov that the Russians are taking a similar line to the Americans, remember they aren't a fan of Erdogan either...
Lavrov and Kerry are together in Moscow presumably comparing notes.
The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.
If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.
Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.
Are there significant differences of outlook between western and eastern Turkey?
Well its rural. it's also got significant ethnic minorities. Not sure how many Armenias are left but there's the Kurds as well and Georgians too in the NE.
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdogan is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
It sounds from Lavrov that the Russians are taking a similar line to the Americans, remember they aren't a fan of Erdogan either...
A joint-effort by Russia and the west would probably be a decent result compared to Russia taking over. However much they do not like Erdogan, I suspect that they would like a pro-West pansy even less.
The Mayor of Ankara has also called for a popular uprising against the coup.
If Erdogan has enough popular support it may end up like the KGB August 1991 coup or even a Spanish Civil War situation.
Ankara only has a third of the population of Istanbul. 5m vs 15m.
Are there significant differences of outlook between western and eastern Turkey?
Basically the bits (that used to be greek populated) at the west end, particularly coastal are far more europeanised than the rest. This is the part most tourists go to.
However like the rest of Europe their birth rate is far lower than further east.
Further east there is also a big chunk of Kurdistan and also a few "secret armenians" to complicate matters.
Anna Soubry, Ros Altmann and Ed Vaizey have left the government.
Brandon Lewis – Minister of State for Policing and the Fire Service at the Home Office
Matt Hancock – Minister of State responsible for digital policy at DCMS
Jane Ellison – Financial Secretary to the Treasury
Jo Johnson – Minister of State at the Department for Education and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, leading on universities and science
John Hayes – Minister of State at the Department for Transport
Damian Hinds – Minister of State for the Department of Work and Pensions
Greg Hands – Minister of State in the Department for International Trade
Robert Goodwill – Minister of State for immigration in the Home Office
Sourby out? Not sure I follow the logic of this one.
You go out for the evening because things are quietening down and you arrive home to a military coup in a NATO state that borders Syria. I don't think baptisms get more fiery than this. Boris needs a better response than 'cripes'
Does he? It would appear that the best British response to this is nothing.
I don't think it's possible to ignore this. This will, and certainly ought to be causing nightmares in the foreign ministries of the western world. Turkey borders Syria and so this is far more dangerous than the previous umpteen coups. The coup needs to succeed or fail rapidly, at the moment it looks like the former. I suspect the realpolitik approach is to ensure Turkey continues as a stable and viable state and other considerations take a seat.
I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
Yes that looks bad for him. He couldn't even get a proper camera to broadcast a statement? That looks more like he's been found in Pokemon Go. Erdomon.
Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in Germany
Can they not send him back in exchange for a Syrian refugee?
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!
Brexit: the movie "According to the coach company, a film production company has hired the original Vote Leave bus and decided to re-create its exact campaign look just three weeks after the referendum."
If this is what it appears to be, (I.e. a Western backed coup to install a secular leader), then this is very, very good news for the West. Only this to watch out for is Russia's retaliation. In recent days Putin's rhetoric has got softer, lets hope that this doesn't harden it up again. All eyes to the Baltics.
Does he have any reason to support Erdogan? I know he doesn't exactly like the West removing leaders it doesn't like.....
I suspect he is more likely to be behind the coup than the west.
I doubt that, but I'd say it's very likely to be with his agreement.
If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.
Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.
Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.
Apparently: 'Claims from Turkish sources on air that head of Turkish military has been killed and that the heads of the Turkish Air Force and Land Forces are behind the coup.'
If the coup fails, I guess it gives Erdogan the green light to become a full-blown dictator.
A very smart comment, Southam.
I think it is more likely to give the green light to a very nasty civi war...
Which will end up with Putin smiling inside Hagia Sophia greeting the newly installed Ecumenical Patiarch Kirill having achieved the aim of centuries of Russian Policy
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
Indeed. As I said, its more likely that the UK and France are helping the plotters. The EU response so far speaks to that as well.
In terms of our membership it doesn't really make any difference.
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967 Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!) Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9 Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...
67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.
Ah but VoteLeave implied that Turkey would be in by next Wednesday and we'd all be forced to eat hummus...
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!
My point was that the idea that Turkey would join the EU shortly was rubbish. This proves it.
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!
I'm not saying it's over for him yet but Corbyn's odds look better.
Yes that looks bad for him. He couldn't even get a proper camera to broadcast a statement? That looks more like he's been found in Pokemon Go. Erdomon.
Reported to have been refused landing rights in Istanbul and now seeking asylum in Germany
Hopefully the Germans tell him to fuck off if this is the case.
I believe the conversation is something like this:
"Requesting urgent permission to land, this is a flight containing Turkish President Erdogan. We must land."
"OK before we give you permission... could you perhaps confirm a few things first?"
"Yes, yes. This is very urgent. What do you need?"
"Please repeat after me. I am President Erdogan. And I fuck goats."
Anna Soubry, Ros Altmann and Ed Vaizey have left the government.
Brandon Lewis – Minister of State for Policing and the Fire Service at the Home Office
Matt Hancock – Minister of State responsible for digital policy at DCMS
Jane Ellison – Financial Secretary to the Treasury
Jo Johnson – Minister of State at the Department for Education and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, leading on universities and science
John Hayes – Minister of State at the Department for Transport
Damian Hinds – Minister of State for the Department of Work and Pensions
Greg Hands – Minister of State in the Department for International Trade
Robert Goodwill – Minister of State for immigration in the Home Office
Sourby out? Not sure I follow the logic of this one.
She's sulking she wasn't promoted to the Cabinet so took her toys home
It takes a very special, but apparently not uncommon, type of loon to think that a coup against Erdomon is an argument in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
It was an argument earlier for us to stay earlier!
And oddly enough Richard made no remark.
Because I didn't notice, amongst the 1000 or so comments. But, yes, it's equally daft to argue the converse.
If the Coup is like the last few, they'll hand the reigns back over fairly soon to a secularist leader. Being run by a pro-western secular leader moves turkey quite a lot closer to joining compared to an Islamist dictator tightening his grip on power.
Interesting point, thank you. Although tbh I'd need convincing concerning a rapid return to democracy after a coup.
Surely it's not the rapid return to democracy that could be a problem, but a return to a democracy that will return the right sort of government.
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967 Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!) Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9 Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...
67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.
Ah but VoteLeave implied that Turkey would be in by next Wednesday and we'd all be forced to eat hummus...
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967 Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!) Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9 Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...
67 to 81 is 14 years which would be 2030. Considering the last EU referendum settled the issue for 41 years, 14 years is well within that window.
Ah but VoteLeave implied that Turkey would be in by next Wednesday and we'd all be forced to eat hummus...
I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Nobody's saying that a Turkish military dictatorship will be allowed into the EU - or even allowed to continue the negotiations.
The question is simply whether a coup that "resets" Turkey's democracy will enable it to join the EU faster (or indeed, at all) compared to the path Erdogan was taking the country down. For comparison...
Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So there may not be a huge gap between the end of a military regime and steps towards EU accession. (Previous Turkish military regimes have lasted only for a couple of years, though with lingering influence for years after, but note past performance is no guide for future performance.)
Fair point, but you did leave a couple of things out, namely (in italics)
Rule of the Greek colonels started: 1967 Rule of the Greek colonels ended: 1974 Greece joined EEC: 1981
Rule of Estado Novo started: 1933(!) Rule of Estado Novo ended: 1974 Portugal joined EEC: 1986
Rule of Franco started: 1936/9 Rule of Franco ended: 1975 Spain joined EEC: 1986
So at that rate, Turkey won't join the EU until 2035-2065...
The question of how long Turkish coups last is probably best answered by looking at previous Turkish military takeovers - generally a couple of years of actual rule, but with a few more years of strong background influence before fading out again.
It's not like Turkey was only 5 years away from joining the EU - if that had been the case then a coup attempt would obviously knock the timetable right back. But a decade or two or more might have been a fair bet yesterday, and even fairly optimistically leaning more towards two. So a short sharp coup (which has been the norm in Turkey) and a redirection of the country's path (resetting democracy in a more secular pattern and with a much weaker role for the president to prevent a future strongman-figure emerging) could well fit in with this EU accession schedule, and it's entirely plausible it could bring it forward.
I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Is Hunchman banned?
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.
Good. She never had the courtesy to reply to my letter about auto-enrolment.
What were you asking? Or saying?
I was pointing out that lots of tiny companies with just directors and no other employees would, by law, have to go through the idiotic charade of pretending to sign up with an auto-enrolment producer in full knowledge that on day one they were going to opt out again, and that exactly the same result could be achieved at much less expense to everyone involved if they could just sign a letter saying they wanted to opt out.
I smell a conspiracy - just yesterday Hunchman was banned, so today he can't expose the truth to us about the coup. Was Nice a distraction technique so that Hunchman would get exiled and hence wouldn't spill the beans on exactly who was behind this, and which lizard person will be ruling Turkey next?
Is Hunchman banned?
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.
hunchman was banned as HE HIMSELF foretold. Entirely predictable based on the fourth Manichean wave coinciding with the 123 year Welchamann cycle.
Comments
and state-run TV goes off air...
While Boris is nowhere, probably asking Willie Rennie for a recommended soft play centre.
However like the rest of Europe their birth rate is far lower than further east.
Further east there is also a big chunk of Kurdistan and also a few "secret armenians" to complicate matters.
"According to the coach company, a film production company has hired the original Vote Leave bus and decided to re-create its exact campaign look just three weeks after the referendum."
https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/lets-take-back-control-of-the-steering-wheel
In terms of our membership it doesn't really make any difference.
Must be something in the water...
"Requesting urgent permission to land, this is a flight containing Turkish President Erdogan. We must land."
"OK before we give you permission... could you perhaps confirm a few things first?"
"Yes, yes. This is very urgent. What do you need?"
"Please repeat after me. I am President Erdogan. And I fuck goats."
https://twitter.com/CatchEmGo/status/753988687780806656
It's not like Turkey was only 5 years away from joining the EU - if that had been the case then a coup attempt would obviously knock the timetable right back. But a decade or two or more might have been a fair bet yesterday, and even fairly optimistically leaning more towards two. So a short sharp coup (which has been the norm in Turkey) and a redirection of the country's path (resetting democracy in a more secular pattern and with a much weaker role for the president to prevent a future strongman-figure emerging) could well fit in with this EU accession schedule, and it's entirely plausible it could bring it forward.
Frankly, a man with his forecasting powers needs to be on the site so he can be mercilessly teased.
Emily Thornberry issues statement to "urge everyone in Turkey" to show "calm and restraint". Demands they "resolve this situation".
Well you can bet Turkish TV won't be showing an announcement by Boris, so not really sure what else he can do immediately.
Looking 4-6 on maybe.
PS. Buy Gold. World enters ice age 2019.