politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to a new era in the Conservative party: The post-Bu

kle4 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.

What will be interesting is the first time a woman gets charged for a mysogynist offence!

Totally agree on police not investigating non crimes. If they are there to enforce good behaviour, not just prevent or catch criminal behaviour, they are moral police not just police.

I am a little sceptical of the whole concept of "hate crimes", but this one may well prove useful at controlling the misbehaviour of the sort seen in some European cities. Far better than women only carriages.

I reckon Jezza's had a good month or so. Saying very little on his unlimited immigration desire during the referendum debate, seeing his Labour enemies ejaculate prematurely, and now he can sit back and smile. Having been an SWP cuckoo for thirty years, he can now start throwing the other eggs out the nest.

"What's that coming over the hill? It's deselection, deselection."

I wonder how much the Conservatives who wanted to get Cameron out (*) are going to regret their moves in a few years' time?

(*) Naturally, not including the TINOs.

Pulpstar said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+2) Winning here.
UKIP: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Ipsos Mori / 09 - 11 Jul)

Tory landslide on hold?

Carolus_Rex said:

Gravitation said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Cameron is just so fantastic in this theatre - he will be missed

Wonder if May offered him a job.

Why not? Chamberlain served under Churchill. What job would best suit him?

FCO.

If the Foreign office usedvRyanair for official trips it would save a bundle.

Pulpstar said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+2) Outlier here.
UKIP: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Ipsos Mori / 09 - 11 Jul)

That poll is ridiculous, I hope it is not so...

Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham 3h3 hours ago
Leadership voting: nothing is yet set in stone. Wonder who the independent scrutineer is?

foxinsoxuk said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Gravitation said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Cameron is just so fantastic in this theatre - he will be missed

Wonder if May offered him a job.

Why not? Chamberlain served under Churchill. What job would best suit him?

FCO.

If the Foreign office usedvRyanair for official trips it would save a bundle.

Education Sec would suit him best. Seems to be the area he is most passionate about, served briefly as shadow Ed Sec under Howard and wouldn't be one of the 'big beasts' in cabinet.

Douglas Home served as Foreign Sec under Heath, being the last PM to serve under another.

@robfordmancs: Oppo ldr ratings after 10 mths:
Foot - 32
Kinnock -7
Smith +1
Blair +29
Hague -16
IDS - 9
Howard -15
Cameron -1
Ed M -7

Corbyn -41


Corbyn is a record holder

GIN1138 said:

Cameron's bloody good... It's a shame things ended so badly for him.

He brought it upon himself, but it has also seen off for now the coronation of Osborne which would have been so much worse for the party and the country.

jonny83 said:

Pulpstar said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+2) Winning here.
UKIP: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Ipsos Mori / 09 - 11 Jul)

Labour on 35% no freaking way.

It's a midterm poll. Labour should be in the lead.

But quite decent considering some people here think they might drop to sub 100 seats (I maintain they will end up with ~ 200)

GIN1138 said:

Cameron's bloody good... It's a shame things ended so badly for him.

it's not a shame when you realise what a dodgy bastard he was. Glad his legacy is in tatters and hopefully May will prove to be more in touch with the electorate and less of a slippery showman.

Pulpstar said:

jonny83 said:

Pulpstar said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+2) Winning here.
UKIP: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Ipsos Mori / 09 - 11 Jul)

Labour on 35% no freaking way.

It's a midterm poll. Labour should be in the lead.

This.

In the meantime, I would suggest that the following is more predictive.

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorjuly2016-160713102715/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-july-2016-8-638.jpg?cb=1468406275

MaxPB said:

I think Foreign Secretary would be the best position for Dave, but he'll need to sit on the back benches for a while so May can stamp her authority on the new Cabinet.

Agreed. I could see a way back for him but not yet.

MaxPB said:

I think Foreign Secretary would be the best position for Dave, but he'll need to sit on the back benches for a while so May can stamp her authority on the new Cabinet.

There's precedent in Home.

MaxPB said:

I think Foreign Secretary would be the best position for Dave, but he'll need to sit on the back benches for a while so May can stamp her authority on the new Cabinet.

I can see him mentoring some of the younger Tories for the next time around.

At this rate, however, that's Friday.

The SNP really are tone-deaf aren't they.....on a day even Corbyn gets it right they let themselves down.....

TOPPING said:

Dromedary said:

Green candidate Jill Stein's response to Bernie Sanders's endorsement of Hillary Clinton was "HillNo", "JillYes".

If Stein can win enough votes from some of Bernie Sanders's supporters, or enough support to get into the TV debates, it could be curtains for Clinton. Donald Trump's endorser Rupert Murdoch who owns Fox News could help. Maybe Trump and Stein will fight over climate change.

Mid price at Betfair for Trump has risen to 4.2.

The Green Party's convention comes after the Dem and Rep conventions.

You know the secret of great comedy, don't you. Same here on PB.

Timing?

Are you saying it's not OK to talk in the comments about political betting topics that aren't related to the subject of the article? The US presidential election is the next big market. £16 million at Betfair already. But if I've committed a faux pas I'll shut up

Carolus_Rex said:

Gravitation said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

David Cameron is just so fantastic in this theatre - he will be missed

Wonder if May offered him a job.

Why not? Chamberlain served under Churchill. What job would best suit him?

Chamberlain not only served under Churchill but probably in those dark days of 1940 made sure that the Churchill premiership survived until July. Without Chamberlain's support in cabinet it is likely that Halifax would have forced Churchill out and made peace with Hitler.

However, those were different days, different men who lived by different standards. Home, who served at the FCO under Heath, was probably the last of them.

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.

Evidence based policy would be very welcome.

Incidentally Tony Rogers (Tony Benn's Chesterfield opponent) told me last night that May had knicked the worker on the board policy from the 1960s liberals !

Yes...I recall it was a SDP policy back in the day

Was a big part of the Liberal manifesto in 1974

I'm welling up a little. I've had my beefs with David Cameron but it's such a shame it came to this. He has gone far too soon. He will be missed.

Brom said:

rottenborough said:

Jo Maugham QC ‏@JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago
Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.

he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market.
When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.

@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.

@Pong knows his onions.

MontyHall said:

Corbyn stood and applauded

Balls

PlatoSaid said:

GIN1138 said:

Cameron's bloody good... It's a shame things ended so badly for him.

Imagine if he'd backed Leave...

Leave would have won 60/40 and he'd be a national hero.

He'd always been a lucky general but it was one gamble too far.

anotherDave said:

Artist said:

Pulpstar said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 5m5 minutes ago
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 36% (+1)
LAB: 35% (+1)
LDEM: 11% (+2) Winning here.
UKIP: 8% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Ipsos Mori / 09 - 11 Jul)

Tory landslide on hold?

Weren't IPSOS at the rubbish end of the Referendum pollsters?

ICM, who had a much better Referendum, have the Conservatives leading 38-30%.

Most polling companies have the Conservatives and UKIP on 50%+, but Ipsos Mori always have them on c.45% or so.

I was the future once

Dromedary said:

TOPPING said:

Dromedary said:

Green candidate Jill Stein's response to Bernie Sanders's endorsement of Hillary Clinton was "HillNo", "JillYes".

If Stein can win enough votes from some of Bernie Sanders's supporters, or enough support to get into the TV debates, it could be curtains for Clinton. Donald Trump's endorser Rupert Murdoch who owns Fox News could help. Maybe Trump and Stein will fight over climate change.

Mid price at Betfair for Trump has risen to 4.2.

The Green Party's convention comes after the Dem and Rep conventions.

You know the secret of great comedy, don't you. Same here on PB.

Timing?

Are you saying it's not OK to talk in the comments about political betting topics that aren't related to the subject of the article? The US presidential election is the next big market. £16 million at Betfair already. But if I've committed a faux pas I'll shut up

Are you an SNP member by any chance?

That was really rather good from Cameron.

The SNP MPs are miserable buggers.

Edited extra bit: Corbyn did a good job of asking serious questions whilst keeping things light.

SNP are just so miserable. Getting them off the TV would be one big benefit of independence.

MaxPB said:

God, what have we done. Come back Dave.

Indeed - he is the Tories' best bet for leader by far....

MaxPB said:

Gordon Bennet the SNP just don't get it.

They don't "get" that parliament is supposed to be a little club where greasy pole climbers can backslap each other across the benches.

Good. This appalling display of fawning over Cameron is a disgrace to democracy. An undeserved theatre show of praise for a man whose time in office has achieved virtually nothing of value.

Indeed, the SNP do not "get" that Parliament is theatre and not a legislature and despise that the British people are let down so badly by their elected representatives from the old, mainstream parties. They are right to find it disgusting, it is Britains greatest shame.

Very good final PMQs from Cameron (I missed Corbyn's part at the start). May vs Corbyn unlikely to be riveting TV in future.

We have just lost our best Statesman - He deserves to be respected and will become a wise counsellor

Lowlander said:

MaxPB said:

Gordon Bennet the SNP just don't get it.

They don't get that parliament is supposed to be a little club where greasy pole climbers can backslap each other across the benches.

Good. This appalling display of fawning over Cameron is a disgrace to democracy. An undeserved theatre show of praise for a man whose time in office has achieved virtually nothing.

Indeed, the SNP do not "get" that Parliament is theatre and not a legislature and despite that the British people are let down so badly by their elected representatives from the old, mainstream parties. They are right to find it disgusting, it is Britains greatest shame.

lol. Disgrace to democracy? Alright.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I was the future once

Nicely full circle.

It is a shame that Clegg didn't get a chance to speak today - that would have been quite fitting

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

MontyHall said:

Corbyn stood and applauded

Balls

He clapped, then he stood up (to leave I think) whilst concluding his applause. He clearly wasn't giving a standing ovation. Might be a win-win.

Sweating !

SimonStClare said:

GIN1138 said:

Cameron's bloody good... It's a shame things ended so badly for him.

wtf...

I supported Cameron for years.

I liked him a lot (on a personal level I still do) it's was just all this Brexit stuff that finished him off in my eye's but doesn't mean I don't recognise what a class act he is in the Commons.

So on next Labour leader bets if Corbyn wins do bets for other people stand or are they treating this as a bit like when David Tennant regenerated into himself?

Good last line. Once a PR man..

Corbyn had a reasonable go at it, too. Loved the exchange of emails received.

May's PMQs will not be so full of laughs, I suspect.

ThreeQuidder said:

Sandpit said:

What a lovely PMQs session (a couple of Scottish sourpusses excepted), David Cameron will be solely missed for his wit and humour at these sessions.

And a wonderful closing line.

The "remarkably empty" diary at the start was laugh-out-loud funny, the tribute to Ken Clarke and "I was the future once" was funny but very poignant.

I am by no means a Cameroon but was in tears by the end. A little moment of history and very touching.

MaxPB said:

God, what have we done. Come back Dave.

Don't worry.

We have swapped a consumate operator and Remainer, for a largely unknown one, not as adept as people wish she was (although ofc in a different street from Leadsom), and, moreover, one who was directly responsible for the failure of policy which led to Brexit in the first place.

Politics, eh?

ToryJim said:

So on next Labour leader bets if Corbyn wins do bets for other people stand or are they treating this as a bit like when David Tennant regenerated into himself?

Check the market rules.

For most bookmakers, I expect the bets will stand and settle on the next permanent leader after corbyn.

The Opposition led by Cameron applauded Blair (but not Brown) out. Would they be giving him a standing ovation today?

Give Dave the Education Secretary job. Keep him in the cabinet.