Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to a new era in the Conservative party: The post-Bu

1457910

Comments

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    Pagign @rcs1000

    EC1M - Currently gauging investment interest in central London property at a low LTV.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    AndyJS said:

    Anyone know why Owen Smith is 2 on Betfair while Eagle is 15? Doesn't make sense to me.

    Lab MPs say its 100% certain that there wii be only 1 challenger

    Guess people think Eagle has less support than Smith and will pull out
    I think it would be absolutely wrong for Eagle to pull out. She triggered the process and has a duty to see it through.
    Bit like Boris, then.
    Normally a bloke problem.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    It's a pretty unusual constituency. You have Totnes, and the Dart Valley leading up to Buckfastleigh, which as Marquee Mark puts it, is now twinned with Narnia. It's also the European centre of witchcraft.

    The South coast, leading from Dartmouth round to Thurlstone, has perhaps the most beautiful coastal scenery in England.
    Agatha Christie's favourite part of the country. David Dimbleby also has a house there.
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. StClare, invasion, regicide, Labour Party internal politics involving Corbyn.
  • Options
    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    Who was the person who cleaned their moat on expenses, or had the duck house? Will these be what they're remembered for? What an outcome for years of public service, as Cameron reminded us at lunchtime.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @bigjohnowls You should be able to work out quite quickly by elimination who voted which way in the NEC meetings on the various votes. Then the membership can act accordingly.

    There are a range of exciting options: death threats, bricks through windows, hate-filled emails, co-ordinated Twitter attacks, and so on.

    One member of the NEC, think it was Johanna Baxter, was just being interviewed on Radio 4 and was literally in tears at the abuse she had received and Corbyn's blasé response to it.

    This is not the way a democratic party should behave.
    The bullying and violence is disgusting.

    I don't think I would go as far as Baxter did, however, in claiming that Corbyn 'endorsed bullying by voting against secret ballot'.

    Voting for the secret ballot would have been “an active thing he could have done to demonstrate his support to colleagues taking a very difficult decision yesterday, and he wouldn’t do it. It was was the most shameful thing I have ever seen,” she said.

    I thought the decision to have a secret ballot was gruesomely undemocratic. (I can understand why people would have wanted it for personal protection, but there were clearly other less wholesome reasons why people would have wanted it too.) I think it is pretty outrageous to claim that someone wanting votes to be made public was actively endorsing intimidation and violence - that's a nasty smear.
    I don't know. Gladstone brought in secret ballots in national elections precisely to make them less open to bribery and bullying. It's also why Thatcher brought in secret strike ballots. I would have said those moves made them more democratic as people would then vote without fear for their lives. I can't see, by contrast, why a ballot on labour membership rules needs to be public.
    I think there is a distinction to be drawn between knowing how a representative has voted - in parliament, on an NEC, at a conference etc. - when that individual might need to be held to account for their decisions, and knowing how an individual has voted at an election, referendum or vote of whatever kind, where the voter doesn't need to be accountable for their action and so should have maximum freedom.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,100
    Unless I am reading betfair incorrectly Hammond is CoE...
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    tpfkar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    Who was the person who cleaned their moat on expenses, or had the duck house? Will these be what they're remembered for? What an outcome for years of public service, as Cameron reminded us at lunchtime.
    tpfkar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    Who was the person who cleaned their moat on expenses, or had the duck house? Will these be what they're remembered for? What an outcome for years of public service, as Cameron reminded us at lunchtime.
    Douglas Hogg claimed for cleaning his moat; Peter Viggers for his Duck House; James Arbuthnot for his helipad.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    I can see why you might be concerned but what's his religion got to do with it?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tpfkar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    Who was the person who cleaned their moat on expenses, or had the duck house? Will these be what they're remembered for? What an outcome for years of public service, as Cameron reminded us at lunchtime.
    Douglas Hogg - but he didn't. One of those urban myths that are so damaging.

    I liked Gerald Kaufman's attempt to spend £9000 on a TV. He blamed his OCD...
  • Options
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    It's a pretty unusual constituency. You have Totnes, and the Dart Valley leading up to Buckfastleigh, which as Marquee Mark puts it, is now twinned with Narnia. It's also the European centre of witchcraft.

    The South coast, leading from Dartmouth round to Thurlstone, has perhaps the most beautiful coastal scenery in England.
    The 'alternative' part accounts for about 15% of the electorate. Brixham, Dartmouth and Kingsbridge are more conventional blue rinse retirement areas.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Mr. StClare, invasion, regicide, Labour Party internal politics involving Corbyn.

    Ah, in that case, all quiet on the western front Mr Dancer. – Eagle signed a pledge to stop smashing windows, but that’s about it.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Pulpstar said:

    @DecrepitJohnL It's because no one else decent really wants the job, to be quite frank. The England job is a poisoned chalice. I still remember there were people who thought that this England team could do 'well' this year and even win the tournament....

    Almost any team can win the Euros now - we had quite enough talent to do so this year. Aside from Ronaldo and possibly Nani/Pepe you'd take the England players. Except Sterling. Definitely not Sterling.
    I don't think the squad was anywhere near as talented as many thought. Essentially the people who were expected to lead England to glory were a bunch of Spurs bottlers and players from an 8th place team (Liverpool). I think there are several differences between Portugal and England tbh. First, is that Portugal (especially after the group stages) played far more like a team than England did. They really ironed out much of the defensive weaknesses we saw during the Hungary game. While Portugal had their fair share of players who weren't particularly rated, Cristiano Ronaldo is obviously head and shoulders above anyone in an England shirt. As is Pepe, Nani, and Patricio after his performance in this tournament. Perhaps even Sanches.

    Looking at the kind of captain Ronaldo has been for Portugal all this tournament - especially when he turned manager in the final - who in the England squad as anywhere close to his mettle and bottle? No one. Certainly not Rooney, who I've never seen take control of games in an international tournament the way Ronaldo did versus Hungary.

    While Sterling was poor, they were many others who were also just as poor. Adam Lallana has been practically useless for England for two international tournaments in a row now. Wilshere should have never been picked, as the last time he played 90 minutes for Arsenal was back in 2014. Harry Kane is potentially in the discussion for one of the worst players of the tournament. Like with England U21s last year, he pretty much did nothing in this tournament. Dele Alli was underwhelming. Rooney is simply not effective in midfield, and is no longer good enough to be England's main striker. Arguably for the sake of everyone he should retire. Joe Hart is total joke and you can compare and contrast his performance in this tournament all day long with Rui Patricio. The only players who I think come out with any credit is Marcus Rashford who for the short spells we saw in the tournament was impressive, and Eric Dier.
    Rashford came on in 86th minute vs Iceland and 73rd minute vs Wales! Nuff said!
    And in that short time period versus Iceland had more of an impact than many of the players who had been playing most of the match.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Any shocks happened in the last hour or two?

    Define ‘shocks’ – We’ve got to the point where Tom Watson thumping Len wouldn’t shock :lol:
    Sky could put that on pay per view
  • Options
    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    It's a pretty unusual constituency. You have Totnes, and the Dart Valley leading up to Buckfastleigh, which as Marquee Mark puts it, is now twinned with Narnia. It's also the European centre of witchcraft.

    The South coast, leading from Dartmouth round to Thurlstone, has perhaps the most beautiful coastal scenery in England.
    I think large chunks of the borough of Torbay (including for example Paignton and Brixham) are actually in the Totnes seat rather than in the Torbay seat...
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    AndyJS said:

    Labour MPs today: yes clap, no rise.

    That's what Cameron should have done for Blair tho.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.
  • Options
    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,780
    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    Anyone? Jack W? Sean F? David H?
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.

    In a parallel universe she might consider appointing Larry the Cat as prime minister.
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    Who was the person who cleaned their moat on expenses, or had the duck house? Will these be what they're remembered for? What an outcome for years of public service, as Cameron reminded us at lunchtime.
    Douglas Hogg - but he didn't. One of those urban myths that are so damaging.

    I liked Gerald Kaufman's attempt to spend £9000 on a TV. He blamed his OCD...
    The duck house was owned by Peter Viggers, tory MP for Gosport.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    eek said:

    Unless I am reading betfair incorrectly Hammond is CoE...

    I'm expecting to get well and truly shafted on this, but I laid the £2100 available @ 1.01

    Nothing is confirmed until its confirmed.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.

    No, but that would indeed be a shock.
  • Options
    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    No. They are appointed by the Queen, not the PM.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.

    Yes, Graham Brady has confirmed her as leader of the Conservatives and the party is able to command a majority in the HoC.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    Anyone? Jack W? Sean F? David H?
    Yes. Technically the whole government resigns as well.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    Anyone? Jack W? Sean F? David H?
    I'm 90% sure that the Cabinet continues, since they are all technically appointed by the Queen.
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    So, various reports of intimidation and threats including physical abuse from within Labour.

    CLP's being closed for duration due to the above.

    Labour mp's talking on TV quite clearly pointing fingers as to where the blame lies.

    RIP Labour.

    Hope you Corbynites think it was all worth it.
  • Options
    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.

    One wonders if Liz is sometimes tempted to dismiss all the politicians and "rule" herself.

    I've got to be honest, with politicians held in such low public regard, I actually wouldn't be surprised if the public approved of such a thing were it to happen...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    Anyone? Jack W? Sean F? David H?
    Yes. Technically the whole government resigns as well.
    Oh right, but if they weren't to tender their resignation (I take it Cameron resigned for the entire government?)
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    GIN1138 said:

    May and Hammond - Duller and duller! :smiley:

    It does rather make John Major's term look like The Shiny Spangly Excitement Years...
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MTimT said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    I don't usually think of people as "impactful", but if I had to give the label to somebody it would probably be Edward John Smith, RD, RNR (27 January 1850 – 15 April 1912).

    The poor bastard wasn't even on the bridge at the time...
    No, but the ship was still sailing under his orders i.e. too fast in an area known to contain icebergs.
    Standard procedure for the time. And he had altered course. Just not enough. The bergs were unusually far south that year.
    He still knew there were bergs about and that they'd be difficult to spot but carried on anyway.

    You can't blame one man for it. If blame lies anywhere it's with asshats in Parliament who thought they could devise a smarter safety formula than "lifeboats for all"...
    I certainly wouldn't blame one man for it - but by the same token, I wouldn't absolve the captain simply because others ran similar risks or because others were at fault for insufficient lifeboat capacity.

    You could argue that had the maths been done correctly, Andrews would have realised that she needed a bigger rudder.
    In accidents where people were not deliberately trying to cause harm, it is simply unhelpful to focus on blame, and particularly so if it leads you to stop the accident investigation at the human behaviour that was the proximate cause of the accident. A more pertinent question is always 'what aspects of the system set the person up to fail, rather than succeed.' Even if the 'human error' is down to poor decision-making of one individual, which it almost never is, you should ask what contributed to the poor decision-making.

    Focus on blame is a bad way to proceed - it will never achieve safety, just silence and cover up.

    In the case of the Titanic, you might as well blame those who labelled it unsinkable as the Captain.
    She was never labelled "unsinkable", but "practically unsinkable."

    And that was accurate. I would estimate the catastrophic encounter with the iceberg to be of the order of a 5-sigma event.

    She almost survived it too. A few yards of plating missed by the berg and she might not have sunk.

    Other large ships with far less damage went to the bottom in minutes.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    RobD said:

    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    Anyone? Jack W? Sean F? David H?
    Yes. Technically the whole government resigns as well.
    Oh right, but if they weren't to tender their resignation (I take it Cameron resigned for the entire government?)
    If the PM resigns, I believe constitutionally they are also resigning on behalf of the entire government.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,564
    edited July 2016
    RobD said:

    stjohn said:

    stjohn said:

    When Cameron resigns at 5 pm do all the cabinet lose their jobs with him or does Osborne, for instance, remain C of E until May appoints his replacement?

    Anyone? Jack W? Sean F? David H?
    Yes. Technically the whole government resigns as well.
    Oh right, but if they weren't to tender their resignation (I take it Cameron resigned for the entire government?)
    Cameron resigns for the government, ministers send their resignations in to May as the new PM.

    However, they usually remain in office until successors are appointed. Exceptions would be Seely in 1913, Asquith taking that Ministry himself (silly decision, left the War Office completely rudderless when a Civil War was threatening and the whole of Europe was seething with tension) and 1834, when Melbourne and all his ministers were forced to quit by the King and Wellington had to temporarily hold every office until Peel returned from Italy to form a new government.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    edited July 2016
    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Bloody missed it though.
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    It is not quite the Highland Clearances, but....

    The Evening Standard had a peek into the office in the Palace of Westminster where he will start his new life as a backbench MP and discovered that it boasts a medieval-style stone staircase, oak panelling and painted ceilings.

    Staff were sprucing up the hastily emptied suite in St Stephen’s Tower for its new occupant, cleaning a stain from the green carpet, after four Tory MPs were kicked out to make way for him.

    Crates with Mr Cameron’s name on were stacked outside, while the names of three of his key staff were written on notes attached to some of the desks.

    The suite, which is 20ft wide and 24ft long, has commanding views of Westminster Abbey and the ancient Jewel House — part of the original Royal Palace.

    Until yesterday it was home to at least four Welsh MPs who, colleagues say, were given 24 hours’ notice to move out.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Was it to head to your constituency, and to prepare for government? :D
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    RodCrosby said:

    MTimT said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    I don't usually think of people as "impactful", but if I had to give the label to somebody it would probably be Edward John Smith, RD, RNR (27 January 1850 – 15 April 1912).

    The poor bastard wasn't even on the bridge at the time...
    No, but the ship was still sailing under his orders i.e. too fast in an area known to contain icebergs.
    Standard procedure for the time. And he had altered course. Just not enough. The bergs were unusually far south that year.
    He still knew there were bergs about and that they'd be difficult to spot but carried on anyway.

    You can't blame one man for it. If blame lies anywhere it's with asshats in Parliament who thought they could devise a smarter safety formula than "lifeboats for all"...
    I certainly wouldn't blame one man for it - but by the same token, I wouldn't absolve the captain simply because others ran similar risks or because others were at fault for insufficient lifeboat capacity.

    You could argue that had the maths been done correctly, Andrews would have realised that she needed a bigger rudder.
    In accidents where people were not deliberately trying to cause harm, it is simply unhelpful to focus on blame, and particularly so if it leads you to stop the accident investigation at the human behaviour that was the proximate cause of the accident. A more pertinent question is always 'what aspects of the system set the person up to fail, rather than succeed.' Even if the 'human error' is down to poor decision-making of one individual, which it almost never is, you should ask what contributed to the poor decision-making.

    Focus on blame is a bad way to proceed - it will never achieve safety, just silence and cover up.

    In the case of the Titanic, you might as well blame those who labelled it unsinkable as the Captain.
    She was never labelled "unsinkable", but "practically unsinkable."

    And that was accurate. I would estimate the catastrophic encounter with the iceberg to be of the order of a 5-sigma event.

    She almost survived it too. A few yards of plating missed by the berg and she might not have sunk.

    Other large ships with far less damage went to the bottom in minutes.
    Are subs him or her?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Was it to head to your constituency, and to prepare for government? :D
    I don't know I missed it!
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    edited July 2016
    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Bloody missed it though.

    I remember my first call from the Tory Party, it was more fun when Downing Street called me, ditto Matthew Parker Street
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,488
    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Bloody missed it though.

    Whatever they want you to do say no ;)
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.

    Huh

    Do you think she might send for Corbyn.?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Danny565 said:

    One wonders if Liz is sometimes tempted to dismiss all the politicians and "rule" herself.

    She does.

    In the period between Cameron resigning and May being appointed, she is in charge
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Was it to head to your constituency, and to prepare for government? :D
    I don't know I missed it!
    LOL.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,852

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @bigjohnowls You should be able to work out quite quickly by elimination who voted which way in the NEC meetings on the various votes. Then the membership can act accordingly.

    There are a range of exciting options: death threats, bricks through windows, hate-filled emails, co-ordinated Twitter attacks, and so on.

    One member of the NEC, think it was Johanna Baxter, was just being interviewed on Radio 4 and was literally in tears at the abuse she had received and Corbyn's blasé response to it.

    This is not the way a democratic party should behave.
    The bullying and violence is disgusting.

    I don't think I would go as far as Baxter did, however, in claiming that Corbyn 'endorsed bullying by voting against secret ballot'.

    Voting for the secret ballot would have been “an active thing he could have done to demonstrate his support to colleagues taking a very difficult decision yesterday, and he wouldn’t do it. It was was the most shameful thing I have ever seen,” she said.

    I thought the decision to have a secret ballot was gruesomely undemocratic. (I can understand why people would have wanted it for personal protection, but there were clearly other less wholesome reasons why people would have wanted it too.) I think it is pretty outrageous to claim that someone wanting votes to be made public was actively endorsing intimidation and violence - that's a nasty smear.
    What the hell is gruesomely undemocratic about a secret ballot? Your concept of democracy seems seriously flawed.
    There is an argument that where you are representing many people that you should justify your choices to those you represent. It's the reason why MPs votes are open .
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    edited July 2016
    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Bloody missed it though.

    Whatever they want you to do say no ;)
    I don't know, Lord Maximilian of Shepherds Bush has a nice ring to it!

    Well it had a nice ring to it, I missed the call and now we'll never know.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: Kremlinologist watching #PMQs says Amber Rudd seemed to take special interest in SNP Q re Brain family deportation. Headed for Home Office?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    CoTE Hammond - I am seriously underwhelmed.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    TGOHF said:

    CoTE Hammond - I am seriously underwhelmed.

    Confirmed?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Bloody missed it though.

    Whatever they want you to do say no ;)
    I don't know, Lord Maximilian of Shepherds Bush has a nice ring to it!
    Dukedom or nothing.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    Sean_F said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    It's a pretty unusual constituency. You have Totnes, and the Dart Valley leading up to Buckfastleigh, which as Marquee Mark puts it, is now twinned with Narnia. It's also the European centre of witchcraft.

    The South coast, leading from Dartmouth round to Thurlstone, has perhaps the most beautiful coastal scenery in England.
    I think large chunks of the borough of Torbay (including for example Paignton and Brixham) are actually in the Totnes seat rather than in the Torbay seat...
    Yes, Torbay loses parts of Paignton (a big council estate) and round to Brixham which fall within Totnes.

    Torbay USED to be twinned with Narnia, for several years, but the council finally got annoyed and painted over it.

    http://legacymedia.localworld.co.uk/275798/Article/images/17246809/4284313.jpg

    Then for a while it got twinned with Area 51... :lol:
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,564
    edited July 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    She was never labelled "unsinkable", but "practically unsinkable."

    And that was accurate. I would estimate the catastrophic encounter with the iceberg to be of the order of a 5-sigma event.

    She almost survived it too. A few yards of plating missed by the berg and she might not have sunk.

    Other large ships with far less damage went to the bottom in minutes.

    The builder said 'practically' the advertisers left it out. So you are both right.

    Agree with the rest, although it is worth noting the Great Eastern suffered far more significant damage than the Titanic without sinking, because it was constructed with a double hull. If that had been applied to all ships, the Titanic would not have been lost.

    It is also very sobering to think that it is less than 30 years since all oil tankers has to be double hulled, and how many oil spills we would have been spared if they had been built that way from the start.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    Scott_P said:

    Danny565 said:

    One wonders if Liz is sometimes tempted to dismiss all the politicians and "rule" herself.

    She does.

    In the period between Cameron resigning and May being appointed, she is in charge
    You're getting Liz and Larry mixed up.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @JohnRentoul: Kremlinologist watching #PMQs says Amber Rudd seemed to take special interest in SNP Q re Brain family deportation. Headed for Home Office?

    Can't they apply for their visa online ? Dragging them to London seems harsh.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    So exciting for AA Gill to be this close to the top, via Amber Rudd.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,552
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Was it to head to your constituency, and to prepare for government? :D
    I don't know I missed it!
    Are you allergic to cats?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    Danny565 said:

    One wonders if Liz is sometimes tempted to dismiss all the politicians and "rule" herself.

    She does.

    In the period between Cameron resigning and May being appointed, she is in charge
    You're getting Liz and Larry mixed up.
    Any extraordinary Privy Council meetings happening in the next hour? :p
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @bigjohnowls You should be able to work out quite quickly by elimination who voted which way in the NEC meetings on the various votes. Then the membership can act accordingly.

    There are a range of exciting options: death threats, bricks through windows, hate-filled emails, co-ordinated Twitter attacks, and so on.

    One member of the NEC, think it was Johanna Baxter, was just being interviewed on Radio 4 and was literally in tears at the abuse she had received and Corbyn's blasé response to it.

    This is not the way a democratic party should behave.
    The bullying and violence is disgusting.

    I don't think I would go as far as Baxter did, however, in claiming that Corbyn 'endorsed bullying by voting against secret ballot'.

    Voting for the secret ballot would have been “an active thing he could have done to demonstrate his support to colleagues taking a very difficult decision yesterday, and he wouldn’t do it. It was was the most shameful thing I have ever seen,” she said.

    I thought the decision to have a secret ballot was gruesomely undemocratic. (I can understand why people would have wanted it for personal protection, but there were clearly other less wholesome reasons why people would have wanted it too.) I think it is pretty outrageous to claim that someone wanting votes to be made public was actively endorsing intimidation and violence - that's a nasty smear.
    What the hell is gruesomely undemocratic about a secret ballot? Your concept of democracy seems seriously flawed.
    There is an argument that where you are representing many people that you should justify your choices to those you represent. It's the reason why MPs votes are open .
    Everyone involved in the most senior ranks of the Labour party are either mendacious or thick as a brick though.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    Priti Patel as Tory Chairman, interesting
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Danny565 said:

    One wonders if Liz is sometimes tempted to dismiss all the politicians and "rule" herself.

    I've got to be honest, with politicians held in such low public regard, I actually wouldn't be surprised if the public approved of such a thing were it to happen...

    .. until the first decision.

    Politicians are held in low public regard only because they can't please everyone all the time. In fact, they can't please everyone any of the time. That's in the nature of governing; all the easy decisions, which no one much disagrees with, hardly get noticed in the first place.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Priti Patel as Tory Chairman, interesting

    Does someone have a spreadsheet/website to track these things? I suspect a lot will get lost in the chaff.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2016
    So, does the new PM have to have an audience with Larry the Cat or Her Maj first?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    CoTE Hammond - I am seriously underwhelmed.

    Confirmed?
    Very confident tweet from Peston.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,552

    Priti Patel as Tory Chairman, interesting

    Apart, ahem, from here - where is a good place to see these?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    CoTE Hammond - I am seriously underwhelmed.

    Confirmed?
    Very confident tweet from Peston.
    Like he was very confident that Corbyn would lose the NEC vote? titters....
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Nabavi, HM asks Larry for guidance on who the new PM ought to be.

    Are appointments being confirmed prior to May being PM? Seems a little out of order [quite literally].
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    CoTE Hammond - I am seriously underwhelmed.

    Confirmed?
    Very confident tweet from Peston.
    He confidently said Corbyn wouldn't be on the ballot yesterday.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    Looking like a cabinet of the Valkyries
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    ITV’s Robert Peston thinks Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, will be appointed chancellor by Theresa May.

    ITV News (@itvnews) July 13, 2016

    (update) Et al’ – any idea when the procession to No10 is likely to start ?

    Sky are suggesting that Cameron's appointment with HM is at 5pm, followed by May at 6pm, so could be a long night waiting for the phone to ring, for a number of ministers.
    What's the vote this evening? Will we see Dave back for it? Could seriously interrupt the phone-watching.
    Nothing contentious by the look of it.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmagenda/ob160713.htm
  • Options
    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    "... has commanding views of Westminster Abbey and the ancient Jewel House — part of the original Royal Palace ..."



    Mr. Flaming Picky, would like to point out that the Jewel tower was built in the mid fourteenth century and could not therefore have been part of the original Palace of Westminster which was built about three centuries earlier.

    </ pendant alert>
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029

    Mr. Nabavi, HM asks Larry for guidance on who the new PM ought to be.

    Are appointments being confirmed prior to May being PM? Seems a little out of order [quite literally].

    Well, Patel hasn't yet been appointed to the Cabinet. She may be Minister w/o Portfolio though.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    Osborne gawn too.

    :Epic sad face:
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    AndyJS said:

    Out of interest is there any OFFICIAL reason to believe Theresa May will be the next Prime minister. Has the Palace said anything? It's all well and good the Tories choosing a new leader but it's up to her Majesty to decide who she thinks can command the authority of the House.

    In a parallel universe she might consider appointing Larry the Cat as prime minister.
    I wouldn't trust him not to use Trident on the mice....
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    PlatoSaid said:

    RodCrosby said:

    MTimT said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    I don't usually think of people as "impactful", but if I had to give the label to somebody it would probably be Edward John Smith, RD, RNR (27 January 1850 – 15 April 1912).

    The poor bastard wasn't even on the bridge at the time...
    No, but the ship was still sailing under his orders i.e. too fast in an area known to contain icebergs.
    Standard procedure for the time. And he had altered course. Just not enough. The bergs were unusually far south that year.
    He still knew there were bergs about and that they'd be difficult to spot but carried on anyway.

    You can't blame one man for it. If blame lies anywhere it's with asshats in Parliament who thought they could devise a smarter safety formula than "lifeboats for all"...
    I certainly wouldn't blame one man for it - but by the same token, I wouldn't absolve the captain simply because others ran similar risks or because others were at fault for insufficient lifeboat capacity.

    You could argue that had the maths been done correctly, Andrews would have realised that she needed a bigger rudder.
    In accidents where people were not deliberately trying to cause harm, it is simply unhelpful to focus on blame, and particularly so if it leads you to stop the accident investigation at the human behaviour that was the proximate cause of the accident. A more pertinent question is always 'what aspects of the system set the person up to fail, rather than succeed.' Even if the 'human error' is down to poor decision-making of one individual, which it almost never is, you should ask what contributed to the poor decision-making.

    Focus on blame is a bad way to proceed - it will never achieve safety, just silence and cover up.

    In the case of the Titanic, you might as well blame those who labelled it unsinkable as the Captain.
    She was never labelled "unsinkable", but "practically unsinkable."

    And that was accurate. I would estimate the catastrophic encounter with the iceberg to be of the order of a 5-sigma event.

    She almost survived it too. A few yards of plating missed by the berg and she might not have sunk.

    Other large ships with far less damage went to the bottom in minutes.
    Are subs him or her?
    It's a bit confusing, isnt it?

    She can be a merchantman or a man-o'-war.

    But always a she...
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,552

    TOPPING said:

    Sandpit said:

    ITV’s Robert Peston thinks Philip Hammond, the foreign secretary, will be appointed chancellor by Theresa May.

    ITV News (@itvnews) July 13, 2016

    (update) Et al’ – any idea when the procession to No10 is likely to start ?

    Sky are suggesting that Cameron's appointment with HM is at 5pm, followed by May at 6pm, so could be a long night waiting for the phone to ring, for a number of ministers.
    What's the vote this evening? Will we see Dave back for it? Could seriously interrupt the phone-watching.
    Nothing contentious by the look of it.

    http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmagenda/ob160713.htm
    Thx
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    edited July 2016
    Paging @TheWhiterabbit

    Rumour mill...
    Chancellor: Hammond
    Home: Rudd
    Foreign: Osborne
    Brexit: Grayling
    Party chair: Priti Patel
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited July 2016

    Osborne gawn too.

    :Epic sad face:

    *Happy face*

    EDIT: If @Pulpstar's post is right we may have to swap faces.
  • Options
    Are we likely to get the full cabinet this evening?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Looking like a cabinet of the Valkyries

    Amazonian.


    and Hammond.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667

    Osborne gawn too.

    :Epic sad face:

    Where are the live updates, or do you have the inside line?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    O/T

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/13/hollande-accused-of-shampoo-socialism-as-it-is-revealed-he-spend/

    "His hair may be thinning, but French President Francois Hollande employs a barber on a fat salary of £99,000 a year, it has emerged.

    The revelation in the weekly newspaper, Le Canard Enchaîné, on Wednesday sparked jibes about “shampoo socialism” — and speculation that the president has had implants to stop his hairline receding further."
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....

    The fall of the "fops.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @TheWhiterabbit

    Rumour mill...
    Chancellor: Hammond
    Home: Rudd
    Foreign: Osborne
    Brexit: Grayling
    Party chair: Priti Patel

    Greening to the FO, Ozzy out.

    I'm on at 20/1 on Rudd for Home Sec
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    Looking for positives today I found one:

    A grown-up Prime Minister and an utterly irrelevant opposition hopefully mean that we are going to see the end of JCR politics - no more traps and japes designed solely to catch the other side out. Wouldn't that be good?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    edited July 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @TheWhiterabbit

    Rumour mill...
    Chancellor: Hammond
    Home: Rudd
    Foreign: Osborne
    Brexit: Grayling
    Party chair: Priti Patel

    Greening to the FO, Ozzy out.

    I'm on at 20/1 on Rudd for Home Sec
    Wonder what that means for Heathrow...
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @TheWhiterabbit

    Rumour mill...
    Chancellor: Hammond
    Home: Rudd
    Foreign: Osborne
    Brexit: Grayling
    Party chair: Priti Patel

    Let's hope so! But she could easily be a close second for the role. And there are no prizes for that.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited July 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Paging @TheWhiterabbit

    Rumour mill...
    Chancellor: Hammond
    Home: Rudd
    Foreign: Osborne
    Brexit: Grayling
    Party chair: Priti Patel

    That's pretty good - Osborne stays in Cabinet, woman in a big job (Rudd), and Priti inside the tent.

    Not sure some Brexiters would be happy though.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,726
    MaxPB said:

    Osborne gawn too.

    :Epic sad face:

    Where are the live updates, or do you have the inside line?
    Have a source who worked for CCHQ, been fairly accurate in the past.

    He was the one who told me, and I shared it on here, that Gove would retain Osborne as Chancellor, several hours before the media reported it.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,987
    MaxPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    RobD said:

    TGOHF said:

    CoTE Hammond - I am seriously underwhelmed.

    Confirmed?
    Very confident tweet from Peston.
    He confidently said Corbyn wouldn't be on the ballot yesterday.

    ITV must be so regretting his hire. He is absolutely terrible. That Sunday morning show he does is unwatchable. I bet the BBC could not believe its luck.

  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,031
    Mr. Llama, pedant* alert.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Rudd for chancellor !!!!

    50/1
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    tpfkar said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    tpfkar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    nunu said:

    Why is Sarah Wollaston a Tory? What does she believe in apart from the NHS? What makes her a Conservative?

    You was chosen via an open primary as a way of getting rid of a stubborn incumbent LibDem.

    The plan worked. Albeit, she's half way between a Conservative and a LibDem.
    Wollaston? MP for Totnes, succeeding the Tory Anthony Steen, implicated in the expenses scandal if I remember right (prompting the open primary.) Looks like the Lib Dems have often come close, but never won there.
    Steen said his house looked like Balmoral...
    Who was the person who cleaned their moat on expenses, or had the duck house? Will these be what they're remembered for? What an outcome for years of public service, as Cameron reminded us at lunchtime.
    The moat cleaning was never claimed for, and the duck house claim was refused.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    I'd imagine Theresa Villiers will a promotion. She's surely done her time exiled to NI by now.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    What's the new Brexit ministry actually going to be called? Think I might have to kill myself it is actually "Ministry of Brexit"...
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Not sure some Brexiters would be happy though.

    Even more remain than the last cabinet? discuss.

    Rudd. Jeez. There go two million votes. The tory Harman.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,036
    Scott_P said:

    Rudd for chancellor !!!!

    50/1

    Is this a confirmation or a hope.

    Some of us have a bet on "Mr spreadsheet" :)
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Scott_P said:

    Rudd for chancellor !!!!

    50/1

    Pong fishing?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    Rudd for chancellor !!!!

    50/1

    That would be a good move - first female CoTE would be newsworthy.

    And she isn't Hammond.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,464
    RobD said:

    MaxPB said:

    ToryJim said:

    MaxPB said:

    Just got a call from the Conservative Party. :open_mouth:

    Bloody missed it though.

    Whatever they want you to do say no ;)
    I don't know, Lord Maximilian of Shepherds Bush has a nice ring to it!
    Dukedom or nothing.
    I'm sure it'll be one or the other.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Can we pass an emergency by-law banning the use of megaphones on Parliament Square?

    It is getting ridiculous
This discussion has been closed.