politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to a new era in the Conservative party: The post-Bu

System · July 2016

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to a new era in the Conservative party: The post-Bullingdon period

One of my favourite quotes from the former CON leader, William Hague, is that the Tories are “an absolute monarchy, moderated by regicide”. For there’s no doubt about the level of power and influence the leader has over policy, preferment, and the whole direction of the party. Unlike Labour there is no powerful NEC to get in the way.

Read the full story here

JohnO · July 2016

Primus Inter Pares?

adamandcat · July 2016

Not first, Just like Labour from now on, sadly

TGOHF · July 2016

Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.

Pulpstar · July 2016

The Conservative leadership structure is much cleaner (And better) than the Labour one.

Morris_Dancer · July 2016

F1: my mid-season review is up here, including a quartet of spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html

FPT: Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.

rottenborough · July 2016

JohnO said:
Primus Inter Pares?

Shut up Boris, you've had your moment.

rottenborough · July 2016

(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.

Time to start backing him!

MaxPB · July 2016

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: my mid-season review is up here, including a quartet of spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html

FPT: Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.

I seem to remember a Guardian article that indicated that women were responsible for over half of misogyny on the internet. I wonder how the law will deal with them...

Pulpstar · July 2016

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.

Is Sunderland going "remain" too ?

The_Apocalypse · July 2016

FPT:

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.

Given Hodges' recent record, that means Corbyn will win the leadership election then.

OldKingCole · July 2016

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.

Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.

The_Apocalypse · July 2016

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: my mid-season review is up here, including a quartet of spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html

FPT: Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.
I seem to remember a Guardian article that indicated that women were responsible for over half of misogyny on the internet. I wonder how the law will deal with them...

I haven't seen anything to indicate that, but if it's true I wouldn't be surprised. Internalised misogyny is a real thing, and I've seen plenty of women online who blame the victim when it comes to rape.

rottenborough · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.
Is Sunderland going "remain" too ?

McDonnell has said he's not going to argue with NEC about the fixed deadline. So, either he's lying and there's a new twist afoot or he knows the votes are ok with existing members/supporters.

CarlottaVance · July 2016

There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....

MarqueeMark · July 2016

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.

Minister for Seabird Counting. Based in his office - on St. Kilda.... No phone, no internet. Post delivered once a year....

Pro_Rata · July 2016

So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).

MaxPB · July 2016

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.
Is Sunderland going "remain" too ?
McDonnell has said he's not going to argue with NEC about the fixed deadline. So, either he's lying and there's a new twist afoot or he knows the votes are ok with existing members/supporters.

Indeed, if the Corbyn camp were screaming about it today then we'd know that they don't have the numbers. That they aren't means they probably do, and with Unite doing some kind of £2 membership they will be able to push hard for entryists to win it for them.

JohnO · July 2016

CarlottaVance said:
There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....

Hmmm, not sure about all that hard work in the mid seventies. But, talking of effortless superiority, Damian was at least at Balliol.

anotherDave · July 2016

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: my mid-season review is up here, including a quartet of spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html

FPT: Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.
I seem to remember a Guardian article that indicated that women were responsible for over half of misogyny on the internet. I wonder how the law will deal with them...

Public spanking?

Luckyguy1983 · July 2016

I see little evidence of a new era in that picture.

Wanderer · July 2016

lol, I see that BF now has a Lab winner market and that D. Miliband is a runner.

rottenborough · July 2016

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.
Is Sunderland going "remain" too ?
McDonnell has said he's not going to argue with NEC about the fixed deadline. So, either he's lying and there's a new twist afoot or he knows the votes are ok with existing members/supporters.
Indeed, if the Corbyn camp were screaming about it today then we'd know that they don't have the numbers. That they aren't means they probably do, and with Unite doing some kind of £2 membership they will be able to push hard for entryists to win it for them.

Last night there was a view that Unite's £2 was a load of old crap, as affiliates have to have been in place for 12 months to vote.

As I said yesterday, somebody do a flowchart for all this nonsense. I really can't see how they can actually run an election when it is so unclear who can vote.

oxfordsimon · July 2016

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: my mid-season review is up here, including a quartet of spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html

FPT: Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.
I seem to remember a Guardian article that indicated that women were responsible for over half of misogyny on the internet. I wonder how the law will deal with them...

The decision of one police force to classify something as a hate crime means absolutely nothing. Their decision has no basis in law. They cannot create new laws. This is posturing of the worst sort.

Ignore and move on. Any attempt to prosecute on this basis will be thrown out by the CPS and if not them by the courts.

logical_song · July 2016

MarqueeMark said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.
Minister for Seabird Counting. Based in his office - on St. Kilda.... No phone, no internet. Post delivered once a year....

With Boris as his companion?

DecrepitJohnL · July 2016

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.

Gove and May are both one nation Tories, so perhaps Gove will become Minister for Thinking Important Thoughts, a bit like Oliver Letwin or Sir Keith Joseph.

CarlottaVance · July 2016

JohnO said:

CarlottaVance said:
There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....
Hmmm, not sure about all that hard work in the mid seventies. But, talking of effortless superiority, Damian was at least at Balliol.

Definitely not the 'Magdalen Machine'......

Pulpstar · July 2016

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).

http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/

Pro_Rata · July 2016

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).

Is OK, the info I need is on the BBC Owen Smith story. Still interested in the £2 option - is it just a UNITE entryism deal, or are there other ways?

Pro_Rata · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).
http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/

Perfect, thanks.

HurstLlama · July 2016

I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/

ThreeQuidder · July 2016

FPT:

peter_from_putney said:

OldKingCole said:

Danny565 said:
https://twitter.com/ShaunKitchener/status/753143417111207936
Takes one to know one!
As a matter of interest, who exactly does Piers Morgan favour to be the next Labour leader?

Piers Morgan?

JonathanD · July 2016

CarlottaVance said:
There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....

I don't think that will have any particular relevance to whether she is a better PM than Cameron. While she was the best and only choice for the Tory party to make, I think she will prove a better Cabinet Minister than PM. A tiny majority, a divided country, economic headwinds and the unsolvable nature of Brexit will be too much for any level of hard work to deal with.

Paul_Bedfordshire · July 2016

Why is #bloccotelephonico trending #innocentface #facepalm

SimonStClare · July 2016

If hunky dunky is back in the cabinet office, this could herald a new era of garish neckwear.

Pulpstar · July 2016

Pro_Rata said:

Pulpstar said:

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).
http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/
Perfect, thanks.

Glad to help. They also do a prepaid debit card with 6% cashback at certain retailers, which looks of interest should you wish...

rottenborough · July 2016

Wanderer said:
lol, I see that BF now has a Lab winner market and that D. Miliband is a runner.

Yes, new market. There is an existing one that is for leader after Corbyn. Think I'll stay clear of new one.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

HurstLlama said:
I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/

Basically the same story in the Times and the Guardian. Question is how far they'll go.

TGOHF · July 2016

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.

In the bigger picture , did any minister do more to ensure TM won the leadership election than Gove ?

Pulpstar · July 2016

Wanderer said:
lol, I see that BF now has a Lab winner market and that D. Miliband is a runner.

I think he is great value at 20-1 *innocent face*

jonny83 · July 2016

HurstLlama said:
I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/

Hopefully May will form her cabinet based on competence and who she feels is the right person for the job whether that is a man or woman, instead of merely an act of tokenism.

Morris_Dancer · July 2016

Mr. Max, I remember hearing that too. If today's piece is accurate, they simply won't be subject to the same standards as men when saying things or committing actions which are unpleasant but not illegal.

rottenborough · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).
http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/

No where in the list of benefits does it say anything about voting in Lab leadership.

This looks like a scam to me.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

rottenborough said:

JohnO said:
Primus Inter Pares?
Shut up Boris, you've had your moment.

eek · July 2016

rottenborough said:
(((Dan Hodges))) ‏@DPJHodges 9m9 minutes ago
Unless Corbyn and McCluskey can manage a stitch up to get those votes back I now think Corbyn will lose the leadership election.

Both Dan and the PLP believe they have find a combination / stitch up that works against Corbyn...

I really don't know how to break it to them but NO they haven't

TheScreamingEagles · July 2016

I changed my picture as I'm in mourning.

I'm hopeful at least one ex Bullingdon boy will be occupying a great office of state.

George for Foreign Secretary.

SimonStClare · July 2016

TheWhiteRabbit said:

HurstLlama said:
I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/
Basically the same story in the Times and the Guardian. Question is how far they'll go.

Looks more like projection than reality so they can moan when it fails to materialise, May has never struck me as a women who’d favour gender over competence.

JohnO · July 2016

CarlottaVance said:

JohnO said:

CarlottaVance said:
There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....
Hmmm, not sure about all that hard work in the mid seventies. But, talking of effortless superiority, Damian was at least at Balliol.
Definitely not the 'Magdalen Machine'......

LoL, I just hope to goodness you're not Vivienne Dinham.

PlatoSaid · July 2016

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).

Join Unite for Free - can't find the weblink or become a Unite Community member for £2.

http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/

Pulpstar · July 2016

rottenborough said:

Pulpstar said:

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).
http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/
No where in the list of benefits does it say anything about voting in Lab leadership.

This looks like a scam to me.

It's not a scam at all, and @ProRata can call them to find out the rules and so forth.

JackW · July 2016

Tittle Tattle News ....

As Gove appeared before the Select Committee this morning there has been continuing furious activity by his remaining supporters to shore up his position.

I'm hearing it MAY be in vain.

Pulpstar · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I changed my picture as I'm in mourning.

I'm hopeful at least one ex Bullingdon boy will be occupying a great office of state.

George for Foreign Secretary.

Hammond for Chancellor is my main hope.

OldKingCole · July 2016

TGOHF said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.
In the bigger picture , did any minister do more to ensure TM won the leadership election than Gove ?

Law of Unintended Consequences!

ThreeQuidder · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I changed my picture as I'm in mourning.

I'm hopeful at least one ex Bullingdon boy will be occupying a great office of state.

George for Foreign Secretary.
Hammond for Chancellor is my main hope.

Please no. We've had enough May, Hammond, Clarkson jokes...

DecrepitJohnL · July 2016

jonny83 said:

HurstLlama said:
I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/
Hopefully May will form her cabinet based on competence and who she feels is the right person for the job whether that is a man or woman, instead of merely an act of tokenism.

I'm sure that competence will be high on the new Prime Minister's criteria, just after rewarding her supporters, compensating powerful opponents and balancing the different wings of the party, oh, and sex, sexuality and ethnicity, and age of course: need to bring on a few young turks.

Paul_Bedfordshire · July 2016

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.
In the bigger picture , did any minister do more to ensure TM won the leadership election than Gove ?
Law of Unintended Consequences!

His Ministerial post or the lack of one will confirm if those consequences are unintended or not

Pulpstar · July 2016

ThreeQuidder said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I changed my picture as I'm in mourning.

I'm hopeful at least one ex Bullingdon boy will be occupying a great office of state.

George for Foreign Secretary.
Hammond for Chancellor is my main hope.
Please no. We've had enough May, Hammond, Clarkson jokes...

Pecunia non olet

Richard_Nabavi · July 2016

I see Shadsy is offering free money:

Corbyn NOT to stand and applaud Cameron 1/2

ThreeQuidder · July 2016

I'd forgotten that Cameron's "calm down, dear" was aimed at Argclu.

TGOHF · July 2016

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.
In the bigger picture , did any minister do more to ensure TM won the leadership election than Gove ?
Law of Unintended Consequences!

Are you sure ?

Cookie · July 2016

This could be a very attractive approach (to me, at any rate): economically pragmatic, socially pragmatic, committed to some sort of Brexit, balanced between provincial and metropolitan. A little more in tune with the values and concerns of the middle 80%, while recognising the need not to leave the bottom 10% behind or lose the massive contributions the top 10% make.

Much of this is blank-slate projection, of course. It could all be a complete shambles. But I'll allow myself a little temporary optimism.

JackW · July 2016

Pennsylvania .. Ohio .. Florida - Quinnipiac

PA - Clinton 41 .. Trump 43
OH - Clinton 41 .. Trump 41
FL - Clinton 39 .. Trump 42

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

HurstLlama · July 2016

jonny83 said:

HurstLlama said:
I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/
Hopefully May will form her cabinet based on competence and who she feels is the right person for the job whether that is a man or woman, instead of merely an act of tokenism.

I hope so too, and I am fairly confident that there will be no promotions based solely on a person's gender - the work cabinet ministers will do is too important for the PM's chances of success for that to be the case. Of those mentioned in the article the only one that worries me is Amber Rudd, who I think is bloody useless.

If these reports are correct then the Cabinet will be very different from any we have seen before and all the better for its new make up.

TheKrakenAwakes · July 2016

Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.

Pulpstar · July 2016

JackW said:
Pennsylvania .. Ohio .. Florida - Quinnipiac

PA - Clinton 41 .. Trump 43
OH - Clinton 41 .. Trump 41
FL - Clinton 39 .. Trump 42

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

bigjohnowls · July 2016

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnPH8LyWcAAk4k4.jpg:large

Sounds just like Jezza

anotherDave · July 2016

TheScreamingEagles said:
I changed my picture as I'm in mourning.

I'm hopeful at least one ex Bullingdon boy will be occupying a great office of state.

George for Foreign Secretary.

Isabel Oakeshott has written a fair and balanced piece on Mr Osborne for the Mail.

"The discredited Chancellor, who masterminded the catastrophic and shameful Project Fear campaign"

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3687313/So-Theresa-really-rival-Osborne-plum-job-campaign-bully-frighten-nation-Project-Fear.html

AnneJGP · July 2016

Very interesting thread header, Mike. Many thanks.

Good morning, everyone.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

Richard_Nabavi said:
I see Shadsy is offering free money:

Corbyn NOT to stand and applaud Cameron 1/2

Bloody Hell

surbiton · July 2016

HurstLlama said:

jonny83 said:

HurstLlama said:
I see the Telegraph is tipping Leadsome, Rudd, Greening & Patel for promotions to or within the Cabinet and maybe Karen Bradley, a junior Home Office minister, and Margot James as well.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/women-to-make-up-half-of-cabinet-after-theresa-mays-reshuffle/
Hopefully May will form her cabinet based on competence and who she feels is the right person for the job whether that is a man or woman, instead of merely an act of tokenism.
I hope so too, and I am fairly confident that there will be no promotions based solely on a person's gender - the work cabinet ministers will do is too important for the PM's chances of success for that to be the case. Of those mentioned in the article the only one that worries me is Amber Rudd, who I think is bloody useless.

If these reports are correct then the Cabinet will be very different from any we have seen before and all the better for its new make up.

If it is not based on gender, then there will be more women than men. The two exceptions are : Morgan and Loathsome.

bigjohnowls · July 2016

anotherDave said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I changed my picture as I'm in mourning.

I'm hopeful at least one ex Bullingdon boy will be occupying a great office of state.

George for Foreign Secretary.
Isabel Oakeshott has written a fair and balanced piece on Mr Osborne for the Mail.

"The discredited Chancellor, who masterminded the catastrophic and shameful Project Fear campaign"

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3687313/So-Theresa-really-rival-Osborne-plum-job-campaign-bully-frighten-nation-Project-Fear.html

George or Gove would have been great leaders

HurstLlama · July 2016

Cookie said:
This could be a very attractive approach (to me, at any rate): economically pragmatic, socially pragmatic, committed to some sort of Brexit, balanced between provincial and metropolitan. A little more in tune with the values and concerns of the middle 80%, while recognising the need not to leave the bottom 10% behind or lose the massive contributions the top 10% make.

Much of this is blank-slate projection, of course. It could all be a complete shambles. But I'll allow myself a little temporary optimism.

I think we are entitled to a little bit of optimism. The stuff TM has been coming out with sounds pretty good to me too, the devil as always will be in the detail and her ability to get the policies developed and implemented. We shall see, but in the words of the song if you don't have a dream how can you make your dream come true.

RodCrosby · July 2016

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:
F1: my mid-season review is up here, including a quartet of spread betting suggestions:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/the-2016-mid-season-review.html

FPT: Misogyny now a hate crime:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-36775398

"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."

I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit

Still not pleased about this aspect, though:
"It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."

Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.

If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.
I seem to remember a Guardian article that indicated that women were responsible for over half of misogyny on the internet. I wonder how the law will deal with them...

misogynist: man who hates women almost as much as they hate each other

Pulpstar · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:

Richard_Nabavi said:
I see Shadsy is offering free money:

Corbyn NOT to stand and applaud Cameron 1/2
Bloody Hell

£20 max.

On for £40 to win £18 in total on this bet now.

AnneJGP · July 2016

CarlottaVance said:
There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....

I'm finding the prospect of PM May quite hopeful, and I'm by no means a Conservative-inclined person, not to mention being a Leaver.

Danny565 · July 2016

bigjohnowls said:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CnPH8LyWcAAk4k4.jpg:large

Sounds just like Jezza

The Iraq one is probably most damaging. Speaking personally, his view in that article doesn't bother me that much, but I think it would bother most members I know.

TGOHF · July 2016

TheKrakenAwakes said:
Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.

inquiries are for the weak.

JackW · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

JackW said:
Pennsylvania .. Ohio .. Florida - Quinnipiac

PA - Clinton 41 .. Trump 43
OH - Clinton 41 .. Trump 41
FL - Clinton 39 .. Trump 42

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

They're are in the ball park for Quinnipiac previous polls so not too much of a shock.

Pulpstar · July 2016

TheKrakenAwakes said:
Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.

Evidence based policy would be very welcome.

Incidentally Tony Rogers (Tony Benn's Chesterfield opponent) told me last night that May had knicked the worker on the board policy from the 1960s liberals !

DecrepitJohnL · July 2016

Richard_Nabavi said:
I see Shadsy is offering free money:

Corbyn NOT to stand and applaud Cameron 1/2

Corbyn will do what everyone else does -- has any previous PM been applauded by the Opposition, apart from Blair?

RodCrosby · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

JackW said:
Pennsylvania .. Ohio .. Florida - Quinnipiac

PA - Clinton 41 .. Trump 43
OH - Clinton 41 .. Trump 41
FL - Clinton 39 .. Trump 42

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

And have you seen the numbers when Johnson and Stein are in the mix?

Something is definitely shifting, slowly, but in all the right places for Trump.

If the shift continues at the same rate, he's on course for victory...

jonny83 · July 2016

I wouldn't say I am overly optimistic about May but she was clearly the best candidate available and the most experienced.

I don't think she will differ massively from Cameron policy wise though a clear pitch so far from her is that the government has to do more to make people from all across the country to feel financially better off. I think all governments would like to try and do that but it is easier said than done.

She must be heading into one of the most difficult periods a PM will have ever faced, it could easily destroy her but if she can find a way through it and the UK prospers her standing will skyrocket and soar.

surbiton · July 2016

PlatoSaid said:

Pro_Rata said:
So, what is the eligibility for getting Labour leadership vote - can't find much info yet in a quick sweep, other than half stories in the papers. My £3 got me in very late in last year's election, but I suspect that has fallen by the wayside, and I never subsequently joined as a member, so I suspect it is £25 (or the equivalent reduced rate, if any) for me.

What is the £2 work around - is that something that relies on affiliated Union membership (in which case, I'm not going to be able to access that).
Join Unite for Free - can't find the weblink or become a Unite Community member for £2.

http://www.unitetheunion.org/growing-our-union/communitymembership/

You still can't vote.

TheKrakenAwakes · July 2016

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:
Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.
Evidence based policy would be very welcome.

Incidentally Tony Rogers (Tony Benn's Chesterfield opponent) told me last night that May had knicked the worker on the board policy from the 1960s liberals !

Yes...I recall it was a SDP policy back in the day

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:
Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.
Evidence based policy would be very welcome.

Incidentally Tony Rogers (Tony Benn's Chesterfield opponent) told me last night that May had knicked the worker on the board policy from the 1960s liberals !
Yes...I recall it was a SDP policy back in the day

It's a major part of German employment law. It also contributes to the death of trade unions.

TheKrakenAwakes · July 2016

TGOHF said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:
Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.
Enquiries are for the weak.

Crazy conclusion - so we should scrap serious case reviews in cases of child abuse...is that weak?

What a muppet

CarlottaVance · July 2016

JohnO said:

CarlottaVance said:

JohnO said:

CarlottaVance said:
There's another aspect to May - she's from a slightly older generation than the Bullingdon boys - no 'effortless superiority' - just hard work....I wonder what her opinion of that clique is.........not very high, if I had to guess.....
Hmmm, not sure about all that hard work in the mid seventies. But, talking of effortless superiority, Damian was at least at Balliol.
Definitely not the 'Magdalen Machine'......
LoL, I just hope to goodness you're not Vivienne Dinham.

That could explain a lot......but no!

OldKingCole · July 2016

TGOHF said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:

OldKingCole said:

TGOHF said:
Gove making a big pitch to stay at Justice - see @DannyShawBBC's feed.
Gove has demonstrated that not only is he untrustworthy, buut that he confides in his wife, who is also untrustworthy. Or can be used to drop hints that Gove hoimself can’t.

I suspect that if he finds himself looking aftrer paperclips and odd socks he should count himself fortunate.
In the bigger picture , did any minister do more to ensure TM won the leadership election than Gove ?
Law of Unintended Consequences!
Are you sure ?

High risk strategy if not, surely.

Pulpstar · July 2016

Blimey, someone has managed to back Jezza at 11-10 for the contest !

david_herdson · July 2016

Pulpstar said:
The Conservative leadership structure is much cleaner (And better) than the Labour one.

A structure is only as effective as the people filling it. Labour's problem isn't the structure as such but that the leader isn't prepared to accept the culture around which it's designed. The Conservatives had a parallel problem from 1989-2003 when no leader was secure for more than a few months. Both systems require self-restraint among leaders and among the led and break down if either side becomes too forceful or too stubborn.

Pong · July 2016

Pulpstar said:
Blimey, someone has managed to back Jezza at 11-10 for the contest !

I got a tenner on at 2.18

JenS · July 2016

Osborne was a day-boy at a London school, housed in a hideous concrete pre-fab built on the site of a filled-in reservoir by Hammersmith Bridge. It's odd he was in the Bullingdon. But those clubs do sometimes let in clever boys for entertainment.

Pulpstar · July 2016

david_herdson said:

Pulpstar said:
The Conservative leadership structure is much cleaner (And better) than the Labour one.
A structure is only as effective as the people filling it. Labour's problem isn't the structure as such but that the leader isn't prepared to accept the culture around which it's designed. The Conservatives had a parallel problem from 1989-2003 when no leader was secure for more than a few months. Both systems require self-restraint among leaders and among the led and break down if either side becomes too forceful or too stubborn.

Motions of confidence are binding in the case of both the Lib Dems and Conservatives, quite amazing Labour didn't have this in their rules.

RodCrosby · July 2016

Trump moving in on BF.

Pong · July 2016

FPT

eek said:

Remember most people won't fill in the form correctly to transfer their vote to the other none-Corbyn candidate...

I think more people will than won't.

I'm happy to frame a bet around this proposition if you're interested?

Morris_Dancer · July 2016

Mr. Pulpstar, indeed. Labour appear incapable of running the Labour Party.

TheWhiteRabbit · July 2016

Pulpstar said:
Blimey, someone has managed to back Jezza at 11-10 for the contest !

Owen Smith is trading evens => laying him would give you pretty much the same result. It would cover you against an Eagle victory but expose you to a Smith victory in a year's time or thereafter

Pulpstar · July 2016

Pong said:
FPT
eek said:

David_Evershed said:
Assuming that Corbyn gets less than 50% on the first ballot, will Eagle or Smith be eliminated at the first ballot?

If Eagle eliminated first would her second votes go to Smith or Corbyn?

If Smith eliminated first would his second votes go to Eagle or Corbyn?
3 candidates in this election and Corbyn wins on anything above 42% in the first round...

Remember most people won't fill in the form correctly to transfer their vote to the other none-Corbyn candidate...
I think this time, they will.

Smith will get most Eagle transfers I think - but Eagle will not get all Smith transfers. In order for Jez to lose, Smith needs to finish ahead of Eagle.

volcanopete · July 2016

Anyone thinking of backing Angela Eagle in the Labour leadership election needs to remember the longest trend ever in political betting-UK Labour has never elected a woman leader.Add her past voting record and the key vote to support the Iraq war,she really is weighed down.I expect her to stand down for a straight Smith v Corbyn contest.
BTW AWS is the only way Labour will ever elect a woman leader.Labour has a number of "systemics",one of which is bias against women.

John_M · July 2016

TheKrakenAwakes said:
Been listening to much talk this morning about May's options for Brexit and suggestions that any deal must include reduced immigration. Surely before doing anything she should set up some sort of inquiry to establish whether immigration is actually too high, is actually keeping wages down, if public services are under pressure from immigration.

Otherwise we face forcing a government to set policy for the future of the UK, based not on known facts, but on the PERCEPTION of a proportion of the electorate.

Good morning all.

Yes, agree with this. Is it the absolute number, the skills mix, the geographic concentration?

We've had an almost unquestioning attitude that immigration is a net good, is necessary and (due to global trends) unavoidable. That high level macro-economic view hasn't served us all very well in practice.

We need to take the emotion out of the topic and look at it forensically.

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