And trouble for Cameron's successors, I reckon. Gove'll always have the ear of the Conservative hardcore leavers and the TINOs for whom the EU supersedes all other matters of government.
He has proven himself a) disloyal; and b) incompetent.
Are you sure he will hold such sway in the Conservative Party in future?
Major was brought down by the bas**rds, who were both disloyal and incompetent. Some of the same faces featured again in the EU referendum.
They're bound to warm to Gove.
(Although I'm not sure he was incompetent: I think he may have got the result he wanted, or at least he can live with).
Mr Major's intervention in the Referendum campaign was a low point for Project Fear.
I'd a lot of respect for Major for having guts over his various woes et al - and read his autobiog twice. He even signed my copy!
My view of him collapsed during the referendum campaign. He was just insulting and for what point? I expected a great deal more of him. Not as awful as Heseltine, but still very poor.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Remain/Leave is going to cast a shadow over all our current MPs. Quite right too.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
I thought that being reluctant and holding the nose as their government tacks to the centre was the anointed role of party activists? Tories in particular cannot complain, since it is the inevitable (and arguably intended) consequence of the voting system they always defend.
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.
he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market. When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.
@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.
Gove is plainly psychotic. Probably not someone you could very easily have a long-term friendship with.
I think that's completely over the top as a verdict. I've met many Michael Goves in my time, particularly in Cheltenham. Highly intelligent people who think that the mere fact they are 'right' trumps everything else. As anyone who's dealt with politics, corporate or otherwise, will tell you, being right doesn't necessarily win you either friends or allies.
I read an article just after Gove came out for Leave, and it said he'd been enormously loyal to Cameron - and gained little back.
He swallowed the ignominy of being shuffled from Education to Whip's Office with good grace and always offered total support for Cameron.
Finally it went a step too far re Brexit - so binned the doormat behaviour and went for it.
Prior to the referendum, I had Gove down as an incompetent, who nevertheless had his heart in the right place. His move out of Education simply reflected the mess he was making of it, despite being unusually committed to education at high standards for everyone. The referendum showed him to be utterly dishonest and untrustworthy to boot. I admit that was a discovery for me.
So there you have it: dishonest, untrustworthy and incompetent. Gove doesn't have much going for him.
That was a great quote, revisited from his first PMQs against Blair in 2005.
Though just listening to 5Live replay that first exchange and Dave is wrong. He didn't say "I am the future", he told Blair: " But I want to talk about the future. He was the future once".
Cameron led by example and got his party to partake in a standing ovation for Blair, will Corbyn do that? If Corbyn and his closest comrades sit down and the Lab backbenchers stand up it would look very bad, though I doubt Corbyn cares.
Whether people liked or disliked Blair, does anyone really deny that he was a much more "impactful" PM than Cameron has been?
I don't usually think of people as "impactful", but if I had to give the label to somebody it would probably be Edward John Smith, RD, RNR (27 January 1850 – 15 April 1912).
The poor bastard wasn't even on the bridge at the time...
No, but the ship was still sailing under his orders i.e. too fast in an area known to contain icebergs.
Standard procedure for the time. And he had altered course. Just not enough. The bergs were unusually far south that year.
He still knew there were bergs about and that they'd be difficult to spot but carried on anyway.
Standard procedure. The berg that the Titanic struck was probably unusually dark (it may have turned over recently).
If the ship had contacted the berg is just about any other way than she actually did, she may well have steamed into New York. Incredible bad luck. And a whole chain of bad luck.
You can't blame one man for it. If blame lies anywhere it's with asshats in Parliament who thought they could devise a smarter safety formula than "lifeboats for all"...
I certainly wouldn't blame one man for it - but by the same token, I wouldn't absolve the captain simply because others ran similar risks or because others were at fault for insufficient lifeboat capacity.
You could argue that had the maths been done correctly, Andrews would have realised that she needed a bigger rudder.
Simply a reflection of the LibDem much weaker status in the Commons. Farron gets a question about every 3 or 4 PMQ's.
That said perhaps Clegg might have been called just before the final question from Ken Clark
Was the leader of the DUP called?
No but the UUP MP was called, so Northern Ireland was represented. I did find it strange that Clegg wasn't called, I wonder why not, given his importance in Cameron's governance.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Remain/Leave is going to cast a shadow over all our current MPs. Quite right too.
From Spain - as my Cs contact in Barcelona told me last night: they will abstain on a second vote for the inauguration of Rajoy as PM. That means a minority PP government heavily dependent on Cs support, but no coalition.
1. DC - a total class act today. I'm content with TM as PM but she's gonna need to be good to match him.
2. Re: Spain - very interesting and probably an OK outcome. Maybe Rajoy will now get invited to the F/G/I summit in August.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
I read an article just after Gove came out for Leave, and it said he'd been enormously loyal to Cameron - and gained little back.
He swallowed the ignominy of being shuffled from Education to Whip's Office with good grace and always offered total support for Cameron.
Finally it went a step too far re Brexit - so binned the doormat behaviour and went for it.
Just to float a little conspiracy theory for the fun of it . There was at one time a suspicion that Gove moving to Leave was part of a deep laid plan to ensure the Cameroon succession regardless of the result. Perhaps once at Leave he couldn't help but get the bit between his teeth rather more than Dave would have liked, but he was always an outer. Did Gove knife Boris to ensure the succession to May, also a Team Cameron player. If Gove gets a rather better job than we might expect in the new administration, we could wonder why.
Cameron led by example and got his party to partake in a standing ovation for Blair, will Corbyn do that? If Corbyn and his closest comrades sit down and the Lab backbenchers stand up it would look very bad, though I doubt Corbyn cares.
Whether people liked or disliked Blair, does anyone really deny that he was a much more "impactful" PM than Cameron has been?
I don't usually think of people as "impactful", but if I had to give the label to somebody it would probably be Edward John Smith, RD, RNR (27 January 1850 – 15 April 1912).
The poor bastard wasn't even on the bridge at the time...
No, but the ship was still sailing under his orders i.e. too fast in an area known to contain icebergs.
Standard procedure for the time. And he had altered course. Just not enough. The bergs were unusually far south that year.
He still knew there were bergs about and that they'd be difficult to spot but carried on anyway.
Standard procedure. The berg that the Titanic struck was probably unusually dark (it may have turned over recently).
If the ship had contacted the berg is just about any other way than she actually did, she may well have steamed into New York. Incredible bad luck. And a whole chain of bad luck.
You can't blame one man for it. If blame lies anywhere it's with asshats in Parliament who thought they could devise a smarter safety formula than "lifeboats for all"...
I certainly wouldn't blame one man for it - but by the same token, I wouldn't absolve the captain simply because others ran similar risks or because others were at fault for insufficient lifeboat capacity.
You could argue that had the maths been done correctly, Andrews would have realised that she needed a bigger rudder.
Faisal Islam - Every day of Cameron's Premiership saw on average more than 1,000 jobs were created.
This is one of those stupid politics phrasings that make politics people gradually sound weirder and weirder until the entire government has to be sacked and replaced with new people to make them cut it out. You don't need to say "every day" when you're talking about an average, the whole point of an average is that it covers all the days. A bunch of the days will be below average, so all it can do is confuse people.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Remain/Leave is going to cast a shadow over all our current MPs. Quite right too.
Why should this Remain/Leave continue to cast a shadow and why should it be a good thing? There was a debate and a vote. Continuing to classify people over what side they took in the vote is to continue to look back and that cannot be healthy or useful.
Gove is plainly psychotic. Probably not someone you could very easily have a long-term friendship with.
I think that's completely over the top as a verdict. I've met many Michael Goves in my time, particularly in Cheltenham. Highly intelligent people who think that the mere fact they are 'right' trumps everything else. As anyone who's dealt with politics, corporate or otherwise, will tell you, being right doesn't necessarily win you either friends or allies.
I read an article just after Gove came out for Leave, and it said he'd been enormously loyal to Cameron - and gained little back.
He swallowed the ignominy of being shuffled from Education to Whip's Office with good grace and always offered total support for Cameron.
Finally it went a step too far re Brexit - so binned the doormat behaviour and went for it.
Hmmm - so for Gove loyalty is a bargain for which you get things back. No thank you.
It's a midterm poll. Labour should be in the lead.
But quite decent considering some people here think they might drop to sub 100 seats (I maintain they will end up with ~ 200)
The important stat is that govt approval is -45, which i think is worse than anything under the coalition (and pretty revealing, along with Cameron's rating, that the public have no great love for the Tories at the moment). Under Miliband, Labour was about 10% clear against similar govt approval figures - albeit that the figures aren't quite comparable as there'll be an inclination for LDs to disapprove now when they were more likely to approve in govt.
While correct in that -45 probably is lower than anything in 2010-2015, I can find a - 44 in 2013 and several in the -40s in 2012. It's not massively outside of recent experience.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Remain/Leave is going to cast a shadow over all our current MPs. Quite right too.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Remain/Leave is going to cast a shadow over all our current MPs. Quite right too.
Why should this Remain/Leave continue to cast a shadow and why should it be a good thing? There was a debate and a vote. Continuing to classify people over what side they took in the vote is to continue to look back and that cannot be healthy or useful.
Because the question was where should our laws be made? Remain MPs wanted the UK to be ruled from Brussels. Impervious to UK voters.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Remain/Leave is going to cast a shadow over all our current MPs. Quite right too.
Faisal Islam - Every day of Cameron's Premiership saw on average more than 1,000 jobs were created.
This is one of those stupid politics phrasings that make politics people gradually sound weirder and weirder until the entire government has to be sacked and replaced with new people to make them cut it out. You don't need to say "every day" when you're talking about an average, the whole point of an average is that it covers all the days. A bunch of the days will be below average, so all it can do is confuse people.
i’m not sure about what these figues actually mean. Seems unleikely that figures bandied about so freely by the Government are wholly true. Do they mean n000 new jobs? or n000 off the JSA list. In which case they might include the self-employed just about struggling along. For example.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
A not insignificant number of Tory supporters felt that Dave but for his background would have been a natural Orange Book LD, he and Clegg we so conspicuously on the same page about so many things during the coalition and since. Those members and others are going to be even less impressed should the new administration turn out to be even more Blairite. I rather suspect the Kippers are going to try and emulate the LDs and be old labour statists in the North, and libertarians in the shires, with a broad appeal to both groups on the grounds of nationalism and patriotism.
"Incidents against women that are motivated by an attitude of a man towards a woman and includes behaviour targeted towards a woman by men simply because they are a woman."
I wonder if the reverse (misandry) is covered too, but shan't be holding my breath. Intriguing we now have a crime only one gender can commit
Still not pleased about this aspect, though: "It means abuse or harassment which might not be a crime can be reported to and investigated by the police, and support for the victim put in place."
Things that aren't crimes shouldn't be investigated by the police. Someone being a tosser is unpleasant, but the police are there to enforce the law, not to try and make the world lovely.
If someone calls me a silly bitch in a Nottingham street, the police [according to this] would not do anything. If I were a woman, they would. That's just daft.
What will be interesting is the first time a woman gets charged for a mysogynist offence!
Totally agree on police not investigating non crimes. If they are there to enforce good behaviour, not just prevent or catch criminal behaviour, they are moral police not just police.
I am a little sceptical of the whole concept of "hate crimes", but this one may well prove useful at controlling the misbehaviour of the sort seen in some European cities. Far better than women only carriages.
Speaking as somebody in Notts, the Notts police *are* just daft on some things. At a guess, it is probably the Chief Constable.
So a woman committing a "crime" of woman-hatred is not guilty of the same offence as a man. Morons.
A couple of years ago they were trolling schools with the idea that 17-18 year old couples exchanging the wrong kind of selfies were publishing child pornography.
I just realised something startling. I'm rooting for Corbyn. Rubbish vicious useless old trot Corbyn, still I want him to prevail over the hideous gronks the PLP are sharting onto the leadership ballot.
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.
he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market. When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.
@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.
I don't have any inside info on this, but my hunch is JC at evens or above is good value - and I've taken a moderate position.
I treat my own hunches with caution, though!
I need to get my head around who the competitive selectorate thing will favour, and the extent of the advantage.
Definitely doesn't favour Corbyn.
Most of £3ers will not be paying £25 IMO
I am pessimistic about Jezza after the "when is a member not a member when they joined after mid January" rule and the £25 thing.
Hearing moves to stop affiliates sign up loop hole too.
The Blairite, red Tory scum are certainly on the affiliate loopholes. But whether they will be able to close them all if another matter. That said, you don't have to be a Corbyn cultist to use them.
Basically Panorama did a thing on dodgy security at ETS [1] test centers, resulting in the government delisting or threatening to delist (can't remember) their tests as qualifications for visas. So ETS say, "That's OK, we can catch cheaters retrospectively, using *technology*". They then made up some bullshit about their algorithms recognising cheaters' voices or whatever, went back through the old tests and gave the Home Office a list of names. The Home Office said, "Sounds legit" and deported tens of thousands of people based on ETS's random number generator or whatever it was.
Anyhow if rcs1000 or somebody else with a British technology startup wants to make some money, try turning CrowdScores into crowd-sourced AI IoT blockchain-driven illegal immigrant detector or something. Doesn't matter what it does, as long as it deports people and has algorithms.
[1] I'm not sure if this is still true but allegedly ETS used to be the second-most most profitable non-profit organization in the world, after the Catholic church.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Some people may be, but I haven't seen a lot of "judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria", as you put it.
Her "Britain that works for everyone" speech combined Ted Heath with Ed Miliband, at least in tone and objectives. We don't know what that will translate to in terms of policy positions - we all remember how well "where there is discord, may we bring harmony" turned out - but it was enough to tick off a plenty of (neo)liberal right-wingers. And the omens from her time in the Home Office are not good from that perspective. She's had a pretty authoritarian approach there. She's also shown all the signs of being a technocrat - in the sense of believing there are technological and managerial approaches to resculpting society, rather than in the sense of her being supremely technically (rather than politically) competent. If you're an anti-managerialist, then all the warning flags are there.
OT, it's kind of sad Cameron's premiership has ended like this. It feels like it's been cut short well before it's sell-by-date. I agree it would have been interesting to hear from Nick Clegg as well.
@bigjohnowls Don't worry. I don't think Dan Hodges has any 'Labour sources' - unless you account for the voices inside his head as 'sources'. Jezza will still win.
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges Labour source tells me he now estimates freeze date decision has cost Corbyn 180,000 votes.
Cant see how Jezza wins if that is the case
Calm down, BJO.
There are several hundred thousand Corbyn supporters throughout the country who will do everything they can to get a vote.
They'll pay £25 without blinking.
They're far more organised, better connected and more able to take advantage of a short voter registration window than any *saving labour* type operation.
I just realised something startling. I'm rooting for Corbyn. Rubbish vicious useless old trot Corbyn, still I want him to prevail over the hideous gronks the PLP are sharting onto the leadership ballot.
Only the PLP could make Corbyn look like the Messiah by comparison.
It turned out extremely well. The UK pre-Thatcher was a cesspit of class divide, industrial intimidation, strikes, demarcation disputes, 'flying pickets', and Them vs Us in the workplace. All was peace and harmony when she left office.
I'll echo the comments that others have made about wanting to hear from someone like Clegg during PMQ's. The guy worked closely with Cameron for 5 years and I do have a lot of time for Clegg a man that put the country ahead of his party which Cameron acknowledges and praises this. I actually think that coalition government was rather good.
I read an article just after Gove came out for Leave, and it said he'd been enormously loyal to Cameron - and gained little back.
He swallowed the ignominy of being shuffled from Education to Whip's Office with good grace and always offered total support for Cameron.
Finally it went a step too far re Brexit - so binned the doormat behaviour and went for it.
Just to float a little conspiracy theory for the fun of it . There was at one time a suspicion that Gove moving to Leave was part of a deep laid plan to ensure the Cameroon succession regardless of the result. Perhaps once at Leave he couldn't help but get the bit between his teeth rather more than Dave would have liked, but he was always an outer. Did Gove knife Boris to ensure the succession to May, also a Team Cameron player. If Gove gets a rather better job than we might expect in the new administration, we could wonder why.
Gove certainly did the job he had to do the other week, that of keeping Boris out of the race. He deserves to be kept on for his efforts in ensuring a smooth handover to a safe pair of hands, without the months of uncertainly of a prolonged campaign.
AIUI he's doing a good job at Justice, he could stay there to continue his reforms or could lead a Home Office remerged with the Justice brief.
Basically Panorama did a thing on dodgy security at ETS [1] test centers, resulting in the government delisting or threatening to delist (can't remember) their tests as qualifications for visas. So ETS say, "That's OK, we can catch cheaters retrospectively, using *technology*". They then made up some bullshit about their algorithms recognising cheaters' voices or whatever, went back through the old tests and gave the Home Office a list of names. The Home Office said, "Sounds legit" and deported tens of thousands of people based on ETS's random number generator or whatever it was.
Anyhow if rcs1000 or somebody else with a British technology startup wants to make some money, try turning CrowdScores into crowd-sourced AI IoT blockchain-driven illegal immigrant detector or something. Doesn't matter what it does, as long as it deports people and has algorithms.
[1] I'm not sure if this is still true but allegedly ETS used to be the second-most most profitable non-profit organization in the world, after the Catholic church.
This is precisely the kind of thing I mean when I point out that May has been getting stick as a technocratic, managerialist authoritarian. "Remainer" is not the foremost of her problem, for many people.
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.
he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market. When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.
@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.
I don't have any inside info on this, but my hunch is JC at evens or above is good value - and I've taken a moderate position.
I treat my own hunches with caution, though!
I need to get my head around who the competitive selectorate thing will favour, and the extent of the advantage.
Definitely doesn't favour Corbyn.
Most of £3ers will not be paying £25 IMO
I am pessimistic about Jezza after the "when is a member not a member when they joined after mid January" rule and the £25 thing.
Hearing moves to stop affiliates sign up loop hole too.
The Blairite, red Tory scum are certainly on the affiliate loopholes. But whether they will be able to close them all if another matter. That said, you don't have to be a Corbyn cultist to use them.
True.
Still undemocratic to freeze out some poor Labour Remainer who has been a member since January working his butt off through the Referndum IMO
@robfordmancs: Oppo ldr ratings after 10 mths: Foot - 32 Kinnock -7 Smith +1 Blair +29 Hague -16 IDS - 9 Howard -15 Cameron -1 Ed M -7
Corbyn -41
Corbyn is a record holder
So Corbyn has the worst ratings of any opposition leader in modern political history. Wow.
Blairs net ratings were worse in July 2006 though exactly 10 years ago according to OGH
"Corbyn's net @IpsosMORI satisfaction rating low of -42% is better than the -44% that Blair saw in July 2006"
The difference is that was after nearly 10 years of being in power and after Blair leading Britain into one of the most controversial wars in British political history. Blair had also been Labour leader for twelve years as well. Most political careers also end in failure. So basically the figures show, Corbyn at the very beginning of his leadership is nearly as unpopular as post-Iraq war Blair. Bodes well then....
The problem with the EU thing is that no-one has a workable policy on what our relations should be with the EU. This is not new but has essentially been the British issue since the 1960's. As long as we were members, it was easy, it was whatever the EU was.
Now the binary Remain/Leave vote has eliminated that easy option, we need to decide, when we never have been able to come up with a viable alternative, whether we stick to multilateral (ie EEA) or go bilateral. Minimum change or radical change? If it's bilateral, what are our minimal and maximim demands? How are we going to transition - stay in the EU for the meantime, exit to the WTO outer orbit, temporary EEA? Will the EU parties agree? What are their demands on us? What will happen to our economy until the new arrangement is in place, which could take a decade?
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
She has moved to the right of the kippers now floating somewhere near the League of Empire Loyalists.
All joshing aside - my politics haven't changed. I feel more in common with Gisela than May. Staying in the Tories doesn't fit and I'm happy to be honest about it.
Ted Heath meet EdM doesn't fit my vision of a successful future.
Yeah, right.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
Oh, indeed. Yet we don't know yet what May's policy platform or premiership will be like.
Instead, people are judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria.
Some people may be, but I haven't seen a lot of "judging her on farcical 'she was a remainer' criteria", as you put it.
It turned out extremely well. The UK pre-Thatcher was a cesspit of class divide, industrial intimidation, strikes, demarcation disputes, 'flying pickets', and Them vs Us in the workplace. All was peace and harmony when she left office.
BTW thanks for the free money tip earlier Richard I got a bit on.
Corbyn had me worried at one moment but fortunately only stood up to shake hands
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.
he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market. When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.
@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.
I don't have any inside info on this, but my hunch is JC at evens or above is good value - and I've taken a moderate position.
I treat my own hunches with caution, though!
I need to get my head around who the competitive selectorate thing will favour, and the extent of the advantage.
Definitely doesn't favour Corbyn.
Most of £3ers will not be paying £25 IMO
I am pessimistic about Jezza after the "when is a member not a member when they joined after mid January" rule and the £25 thing.
Hearing moves to stop affiliates sign up loop hole too.
The Blairite, red Tory scum are certainly on the affiliate loopholes. But whether they will be able to close them all if another matter. That said, you don't have to be a Corbyn cultist to use them.
True.
Still undemocratic to freeze out some poor Labour Remainer who has been a member since January working his butt off through the Referndum IMO
Can you be a member and a registered supporter at the same time?
The problem with the EU thing is that no-one has a workable policy on what our relations should be with the EU. This is not new but has essentially been the British issue since the 1960's. As long as we were members, it was easy, it was whatever the EU was.
Now the binary Remain/Leave vote has eliminated that easy option we need to decide, when we never have been able to come up with a viable alternative, whether we stick to multilateral (ie EEA) or bilateral? Minimum change or radical change. If it's bilateral, what are our minimal and maximim demands? How are we going to transition - stay in the EU for the meantime, exit to the WTO outer orbit, temporary EEA? Will the EU parties agree? What are their demands on us? What will happen to our economy until the new arrangement is in place, which could take a decade?
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
That's true, although with boundary changes, she could perhaps be eased into another seat.
Aside from the "EU headbangers", don't underestimate the dissatisfaction of some Tory members/voters/leaners with the idea of an authoritarian, managerialist Conservative government with a social democratic agenda. This doesn't appeal to those on the small-l "live and let live" liberal or libertarian side, those who prefer their creatively destructive capitalism red in tooth and claw, or even just those who are skeptical of the power of bureaucracy and state intervention to improve lives in the intended manner. This is not a huge chunk of the electorate, and they don't have an obvious alternative home to go to. But they may find themselves reduced to reluctant Tory voters holding their noses at the ballot box, and certainly not have great incentive to be a member or activist.
A not insignificant number of Tory supporters felt that Dave but for his background would have been a natural Orange Book LD, he and Clegg we so conspicuously on the same page about so many things during the coalition and since. Those members and others are going to be even less impressed should the new administration turn out to be even more Blairite. I rather suspect the Kippers are going to try and emulate the LDs and be old labour statists in the North, and libertarians in the shires, with a broad appeal to both groups on the grounds of nationalism and patriotism.
I think UKIP's libertarian wing has been pretty much squeezed out now. Moreover, I'd question the ability of a party to present two faces to the world in the manner of the 1990s Lib Dems. Ultimately Clegg's party came undone when, faced with power, it had to decide what it wanted to be, instead of pretending to be all things to all men. I don't think UKIP will face that particular problem, but I wonder whether the increasing centralisation of politics, prevalence of national branding and so on undermines the possibility of candidates expressing a more local identity (except in e.g. devolved areas).
If we see Red UKIP for the North, I don't think it can be hypercapitalist libertarian in the shires. Perhaps it can play up different aspects in different areas - One Nation, social democratic patriotism in the north, nostalgic, "we'll subsidise the nice old-fashioned things so they don't get swept away by modernity" patriotic in the shires. But I do find it hard to see UKIP appealing to the small-l liberal segment in any of their likely iterations.
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
TBH, I'm surprised that Hastings has a Conservative lead as large as 5,000.
I'd have expected it to go the same way as Brighton & Hove.
Edit: although without Rye and outlying villages the majority would be more like 1,500.
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.
he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market. When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.
@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.
I don't have any inside info on this, but my hunch is JC at evens or above is good value - and I've taken a moderate position.
I treat my own hunches with caution, though!
I need to get my head around who the competitive selectorate thing will favour, and the extent of the advantage.
Definitely doesn't favour Corbyn.
Most of £3ers will not be paying £25 IMO
I am pessimistic about Jezza after the "when is a member not a member when they joined after mid January" rule and the £25 thing.
Hearing moves to stop affiliates sign up loop hole too.
The Blairite, red Tory scum are certainly on the affiliate loopholes. But whether they will be able to close them all if another matter. That said, you don't have to be a Corbyn cultist to use them.
True.
Still undemocratic to freeze out some poor Labour Remainer who has been a member since January working his butt off through the Referndum IMO
Can you be a member and a registered supporter at the same time?
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
Not sure that's a great idea, her grating personality on the TV a couple of times a week could damage more seats than just her own marginal!
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
That's true, although with boundary changes, she could perhaps be eased into another seat.
If we are losing seats with 5k majority and a high profile sitting MP, then it won't matter as we won't be in government.
Jo Maugham QC @JolyonMaugham 5m5 minutes ago Don't choke on your quinoa, Corbyn fans, but @OwenSmith_MP is basically even money on Betfair to beat him.
he's not though is he? he's even money to be next Labour leader which is a different market. When they price up a labour leadership election market Corbyn will be odds on I would assume.
@Pong matched Corbyn at 11-10, remarkably in that market.
I don't have any inside info on this, but my hunch is JC at evens or above is good value - and I've taken a moderate position.
I treat my own hunches with caution, though!
I need to get my head around who the competitive selectorate thing will favour, and the extent of the advantage.
Definitely doesn't favour Corbyn.
Most of £3ers will not be paying £25 IMO
I am pessimistic about Jezza after the "when is a member not a member when they joined after mid January" rule and the £25 thing.
Hearing moves to stop affiliates sign up loop hole too.
The Blairite, red Tory scum are certainly on the affiliate loopholes. But whether they will be able to close them all if another matter. That said, you don't have to be a Corbyn cultist to use them.
True.
Still undemocratic to freeze out some poor Labour Remainer who has been a member since January working his butt off through the Referndum IMO
Can you be a member and a registered supporter at the same time?
Not unless you are naughty
Can you quit as a member and become a registered supporter?
The problem with the EU thing is that no-one has a workable policy on what our relations should be with the EU. This is not new but has essentially been the British issue since the 1960's. As long as we were members, it was easy, it was whatever the EU was.
Now the binary Remain/Leave vote has eliminated that easy option we need to decide, when we never have been able to come up with a viable alternative, whether we stick to multilateral (ie EEA) or bilateral? Minimum change or radical change. If it's bilateral, what are our minimal and maximim demands? How are we going to transition - stay in the EU for the meantime, exit to the WTO outer orbit, temporary EEA? Will the EU parties agree? What are their demands on us? What will happen to our economy until the new arrangement is in place, which could take a decade?
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
TBH, I'm surprised that Hastings has a Conservative lead as large as 5,000.
I'd have expected it to go the same way as Brighton & Hove.
It's Hastings & Rye, with quite a large rural chunk. Hastings town is very much Labour, but the hinterland is solid blue. She did very well to increase her majority so much - the expectation amongst local Tories was that she was in danger of losing her seat.
@DecrepitJohnL It's because no one else decent really wants the job, to be quite frank. The England job is a poisoned chalice. I still remember there were people who thought that this England team could do 'well' this year and even win the tournament....
Oh dear... Sky News keeping saying Maria Eagle is challenging for the Labour Leadership
When a major news network can't remember who Angela Eagle is then it is clear that she really hasn't made any impact....
They were talking about Owen Jones joining the race this morning...
You really wouldn't want to bet against Corbyn, would you?
Reflects very badly on Sky, extremely unprofessional.
But if either of the current challengers were in any way memorable, Sky reporters/presenters would know who they were and wouldn't make these mistakes,
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
TBH, I'm surprised that Hastings has a Conservative lead as large as 5,000.
I'd have expected it to go the same way as Brighton & Hove.
It's Hastings & Rye, with quite a large rural chunk. Hastings town is very much Labour, but the hinterland is solid blue. She did very well to increase her majority - the expectation amongst local Tories was that she was in danger of losing her seat.
So, I see. I think the majority would be about 1,500 if it were just Hastings, although even that is quite impressive, given the nature of Hastings.
Regarding May's cabinet and I say this as someone with a deep dislike of Amber Rudd after her shouting and overly personal referendum appearance, but would it be a smart move putting someone in a big 4 job with a majority less than 5k in a seat that has changing Labour friendly demographics? If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
That's true, although with boundary changes, she could perhaps be eased into another seat.
If we are losing seats with 5k majority and a high profile sitting MP, then it won't matter as we won't be in government.
Possibly, but I think given the make up of Hastings and Rye (plenty of Londoners moving or buying second homes, an increasing Brighton/Lewes/Whitstable vibe) although listed as Lab target 41 I'd say it's more likely in the top 30. It's conceivable Rudd could be swallowed up by Labour but Tories still have a minority government if the SNP continue domination up North.
As has been suggested it wouldn't surprise me if she was gunning for a new seat come the boundary changes.
@DecrepitJohnL It's because no one else decent really wants the job, to be quite frank. The England job is a poisoned chalice. I still remember there were people who thought that this England team could do 'well' this year and even win the tournament....
Almost any team can win the Euros now - we had quite enough talent to do so this year. Aside from Ronaldo and possibly Nani/Pepe you'd take the England players. Except Sterling. Definitely not Sterling.
It turned out extremely well. The UK pre-Thatcher was a cesspit of class divide, industrial intimidation, strikes, demarcation disputes, 'flying pickets', and Them vs Us in the workplace. All was peace and harmony when she left office.
I think it was her amicable resolution of the miners' strike, and her ability to sit down and reason with the Brixton rioters, that allowed her to impose the poll tax with such little unrest.
:-)
Look, I know what you mean Richard, but I was just pointing out that knowing May's aims was not necessarily indicative of the means she would use to undertake them. I'm not saying that Thatcher set out to inspire a proletarian uprising either, but I wonder how many of her supporters listened to that address thinking "oh God, she's going to be another weak pushover". Now May may turn out not to be Daughter of Heath, Long-lost Cousin of Miliband after all. But I can imagine the likes of Plato grimacing all the way through May's speech.
'WARSAW (Reuters) - The EU must not let Britain profit from leaving the bloc as that could inspire other states to follow suit, European Council President Donald Tusk said, echoing other policymakers in signalling a tough stance in upcoming Brexit negotiations.'
'WARSAW (Reuters) - The EU must not let Britain profit from leaving the bloc as that could inspire other states to follow suit, European Council President Donald Tusk said, echoing other policymakers in signalling a tough stance in upcoming Brexit negotiations.'
Comments
Bercow gave a standing ovation too, it looks like? I was listening on Five Live rather than watching and had to switch off as soon as it finished...
Hi @IsabelOakeshott I have a photo of Theresa May at university sticking her tits into a leopard, please DM for details.
My view of him collapsed during the referendum campaign. He was just insulting and for what point? I expected a great deal more of him. Not as awful as Heseltine, but still very poor.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07ldrbk
Most of £3ers will not be paying £25 IMO
I am pessimistic about Jezza after the "when is a member not a member when they joined after mid January" rule and the £25 thing.
Hearing moves to stop affiliates sign up loop hole too.
So there you have it: dishonest, untrustworthy and incompetent. Gove doesn't have much going for him.
You could argue that had the maths been done correctly, Andrews would have realised that she needed a bigger rudder.
2. Re: Spain - very interesting and probably an OK outcome. Maybe Rajoy will now get invited to the F/G/I summit in August.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/passenger-evacuated-sinking-mersey-ferry-11595264
https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ipsosmoripoliticalmonitorjuly2016-160713102715/95/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-july-2016-8-638.jpg?cb=1468406275
When a major news network can't remember who Angela Eagle is then it is clear that she really hasn't made any impact....
Except with TINO EU headbangers.
@DPJHodges
Labour source tells me he now estimates freeze date decision has cost Corbyn 180,000 votes.
Cant see how Jezza wins if that is the case
So a woman committing a "crime" of woman-hatred is not guilty of the same offence as a man. Morons.
A couple of years ago they were trolling schools with the idea that 17-18 year old couples exchanging the wrong kind of selfies were publishing child pornography.
http://www.independent.co.uk/student/news/theresa-may-wrongly-deported-48000-students-after-bbc-panorama-exposes-toeic-scam-a6958286.html
Basically Panorama did a thing on dodgy security at ETS [1] test centers, resulting in the government delisting or threatening to delist (can't remember) their tests as qualifications for visas. So ETS say, "That's OK, we can catch cheaters retrospectively, using *technology*". They then made up some bullshit about their algorithms recognising cheaters' voices or whatever, went back through the old tests and gave the Home Office a list of names. The Home Office said, "Sounds legit" and deported tens of thousands of people based on ETS's random number generator or whatever it was.
Anyhow if rcs1000 or somebody else with a British technology startup wants to make some money, try turning CrowdScores into crowd-sourced AI IoT blockchain-driven illegal immigrant detector or something. Doesn't matter what it does, as long as it deports people and has algorithms.
[1] I'm not sure if this is still true but allegedly ETS used to be the second-most most profitable non-profit organization in the world, after the Catholic church.
Her "Britain that works for everyone" speech combined Ted Heath with Ed Miliband, at least in tone and objectives. We don't know what that will translate to in terms of policy positions - we all remember how well "where there is discord, may we bring harmony" turned out - but it was enough to tick off a plenty of (neo)liberal right-wingers. And the omens from her time in the Home Office are not good from that perspective. She's had a pretty authoritarian approach there. She's also shown all the signs of being a technocrat - in the sense of believing there are technological and managerial approaches to resculpting society, rather than in the sense of her being supremely technically (rather than politically) competent. If you're an anti-managerialist, then all the warning flags are there.
OT, it's kind of sad Cameron's premiership has ended like this. It feels like it's been cut short well before it's sell-by-date. I agree it would have been interesting to hear from Nick Clegg as well.
@bigjohnowls Don't worry. I don't think Dan Hodges has any 'Labour sources' - unless you account for the voices inside his head as 'sources'. Jezza will still win.
There are several hundred thousand Corbyn supporters throughout the country who will do everything they can to get a vote.
They'll pay £25 without blinking.
They're far more organised, better connected and more able to take advantage of a short voter registration window than any *saving labour* type operation.
Advantage Corbyn, IMO.
@Dromedary?
"Corbyn's net @IpsosMORI satisfaction rating low of -42% is better than the -44% that Blair saw in July 2006"
Apples with pears.
I thought someone was going to write a post on historical ratings and the patters.
What's funny is that Cameron bows out on a record low. And its still higher than Corbyn.
ouch.
AIUI he's doing a good job at Justice, he could stay there to continue his reforms or could lead a Home Office remerged with the Justice brief.
Still undemocratic to freeze out some poor Labour Remainer who has been a member since January working his butt off through the Referndum IMO
You really wouldn't want to bet against Corbyn, would you?
Now the binary Remain/Leave vote has eliminated that easy option, we need to decide, when we never have been able to come up with a viable alternative, whether we stick to multilateral (ie EEA) or go bilateral. Minimum change or radical change? If it's bilateral, what are our minimal and maximim demands? How are we going to transition - stay in the EU for the meantime, exit to the WTO outer orbit, temporary EEA? Will the EU parties agree? What are their demands on us? What will happen to our economy until the new arrangement is in place, which could take a decade?
If Labour got their act together for a bit in 2020 then Hastings (Rudd's seat) would arguably be in their top 40 targets and a future Portillo/Ed Balls moment given her grating personality.
Corbyn had me worried at one moment but fortunately only stood up to shake hands
See point 5 in the attached -
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/18/britains-original-sins/
If we see Red UKIP for the North, I don't think it can be hypercapitalist libertarian in the shires. Perhaps it can play up different aspects in different areas - One Nation, social democratic patriotism in the north, nostalgic, "we'll subsidise the nice old-fashioned things so they don't get swept away by modernity" patriotic in the shires. But I do find it hard to see UKIP appealing to the small-l liberal segment in any of their likely iterations.
I'd have expected it to go the same way as Brighton & Hove.
Edit: although without Rye and outlying villages the majority would be more like 1,500.
And why on earth is the FA talking to BFS Allardyce about the England job?
ITV News (@itvnews) July 13, 2016
(update) Et al’ – any idea when the procession to No10 is likely to start ?
Philip Hammond @ 14/1
Next Chancellor
Next Chancellor £6.00 Pending
Corbyn is being challenged by lightweights.
http://labourlist.org/2016/07/corbyns-opponents-want-to-conspire-against-democracy/
As has been suggested it wouldn't surprise me if she was gunning for a new seat come the boundary changes.
:-)
Look, I know what you mean Richard, but I was just pointing out that knowing May's aims was not necessarily indicative of the means she would use to undertake them. I'm not saying that Thatcher set out to inspire a proletarian uprising either, but I wonder how many of her supporters listened to that address thinking "oh God, she's going to be another weak pushover". Now May may turn out not to be Daughter of Heath, Long-lost Cousin of Miliband after all. But I can imagine the likes of Plato grimacing all the way through May's speech. Fair enough! I haven't encountered much personally but we're each in our own little bubble.
'WARSAW (Reuters) - The EU must not let Britain profit from leaving the bloc as that could inspire other states to follow suit, European Council President Donald Tusk said, echoing other policymakers in signalling a tough stance in upcoming Brexit negotiations.'
http://tinyurl.com/htpaze2